Kris Bryant expectations

fatbeard · Nov 6, 2014

Curious to hear opinions about Kris Bryant's production next year, given the enormous hype we're likely to hear until he's actually called up. After all, it's not very often an 80-power guy comes around these days. Is 30 HRs unrealistic his rookie year? Trout did it, although he did have 120+ ABs under his belt from the year prior.

I'm trying to keep expectations realistic: .260/.340/25hrs/180k

SilenceS · Nov 6, 2014

A lot of walks, a lot of homer, and a lot of K's. That is going to be him and most of the Cubs MO next year minus the walks. lol Kind of joking, kind of serious.

TC in Mississippi · Nov 6, 2014

fatbeard said:
Curious to hear opinions about Kris Bryant's production next year, given the enormous hype we're likely to hear until he's actually called up. After all, it's not very often an 80-power guy comes around these days. Is 30 HRs unrealistic his rookie year? Trout did it, although he did have 120+ ABs under his belt from the year prior.

I'm trying to keep expectations realistic: .260/.340/25hrs/180k

I'd say closer to .270/.385/.600 for a slash line. 25 HR and 170-180K sounds right. The key is if he can even get close to the crazy good OBP he's putting up on the farm. Even in AAA where he struggled a bit it was .418. If you have a rookie that puts up a .900 plus OPS you've probably got the Rookie of the Year.

SilenceS · Nov 6, 2014

TC in Mississippi said:
I'd say closer to .270/.385/.600 for a slash line. 25 HR and 170-180K sounds right. The key is if he can even get close to the crazy good OBP he's putting up on the farm. Even in AAA where he struggled a bit it was .418. If you have a rookie that puts up a .900 plus OPS you've probably got the Rookie of the Year.

He wont put up the same BABIP in the majors his rookie year. He would have to have a better contact rate to get that line in my opinion.

brett05 · Nov 6, 2014

I see him as starting with the club right out of the box since the Cubs know full well the extra year of control won't matter as they plan to extend him early if he proves to be who everyone thinks he'll be.

I like him a lot. I do see a ROY candidate.

What will his numbers be? Just a wild guess. something like .270/.350/.525 60 BB, 175 Ks and let's go with 28 taters. If he starts late then cut the counting numbers by 10 percentage points.

TC in Mississippi · Nov 6, 2014

brett05 said:
I see him as starting with the club right out of the box since the Cubs know full well the extra year of control won't matter as they plan to extend him early if he proves to be who everyone thinks he'll be.

I like him a lot. I do see a ROY candidate.

What will his numbers be? Just a wild guess. something like .270/.350/.525 60 BB, 175 Ks and let's go with 28 taters. If he starts late then cut the counting numbers by 10 percentage points.

They'd love to extend him but Boras' doesn't let his guys do that. He also rarely lets his guys sign with the team that drafted them. He'll be up the third week in April and be a Cub for 6 or 7 years.

fatbeard · Nov 6, 2014

brett05 said:
I see him as starting with the club right out of the box since the Cubs know full well the extra year of control won't matter as they plan to extend him early if he proves to be who everyone thinks he'll be.

I like him a lot. I do see a ROY candidate.

What will his numbers be? Just a wild guess. something like .270/.350/.525 60 BB, 175 Ks and let's go with 28 taters. If he starts late then cut the counting numbers by 10 percentage points.

The really interesting thing will be if Bryant lights up spring training, how do the Cubs justify keeping him in the minors for ~3 weeks after the season starts just to gain that extra year of control? The explanation that last year was his first full year of pro ball was at least plausible.

brett05 · Nov 6, 2014

TC in Mississippi said:
They'd love to extend him but Boras' doesn't let his guys do that. He also rarely lets his guys sign with the team that drafted them. He'll be up the third week in April and be a Cub for 6 or 7 years.

Actually that is a myth to a degree. I posted it here before, let me go get it again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Boras

Lot of big time guys signing against Boras' desire.

brett05 · Nov 6, 2014

fatbeard said:
The really interesting thing will be if Bryant lights up spring training, how do the Cubs justify keeping him in the minors for ~3 weeks after the season starts just to gain that extra year of control? The explanation that last year was his first full year of pro ball was at least plausible.

I understand the economics but they need to play more like the big market team they are instead of the step child of the Sox. And I don't mean that in a flame war type comment. I mean that when a player is ready the Sox promote. They do not wait for additional years of control.

Parade_Rain · Nov 6, 2014

I think 25 HR sounds about fair. It could be a bit more than 30 even. I know, as SilenceS mentioned, he will walk a lot and strike out a lot, too, but what my expectation would be that come August, he really starts to improve and his OBP and HR rate goes up some.

Boobaby1 · Nov 6, 2014

I am going on the high end and say that he goes .276/.375/.600 with 32 HR's. He will have the hype (he seems to handle it well), but also, the guys around him like Rizzo, Soler, and Baez are going to make it tough to pitch around. Somebody is going to have a big year with the dingers.

I can see the excitement when you stack those guys like maybe four in a row, especially since half of those guys possess plate discipline already. If the other two start to get it.......look out!

brett05 · Nov 6, 2014

Boobaby1 said:
I am going on the high end and say that he goes .276/.375/.600 with 32 HR's. He will have the hype (he seems to handle it well), but also, the guys around him like Rizzo, Soler, and Baez are going to make it tough to pitch around. Somebody is going to have a big year with the dingers.

I can see the excitement when you stack those guys like maybe four in a row, especially since half of those guys possess plate discipline already. If the other two start to get it.......look out!

If he puts up a 975+ OPS he's the MVP as a Rookie.

fatbeard · Nov 6, 2014

brett05 said:
I understand the economics but they need to play more like the big market team they are instead of the step child of the Sox. And I don't mean that in a flame war type comment. I mean that when a player is ready the Sox promote. They do not wait for additional years of control.

Kris Bryant/Scott Boras is apples to oranges with any prospect in the Sox system. When you look at Bryant's ceiling and how Boras runs those guys, what the Cubs are doing makes sense. If Bryant were wearing black, I have no doubt the Sox would be doing the same thing to him.

brett05 · Nov 6, 2014

fatbeard said:
Kris Bryant/Scott Boras is apples to oranges with any prospect in the Sox system. When you look at Bryant's ceiling and how Boras runs those guys, what the Cubs are doing makes sense. If Bryant were wearing black, I have no doubt the Sox would be doing the same thing to him.

Considering the guys that were as touted they have not, I don't know why you say that. If he was a White Sox he would have been promoted last season. That's the Whtie Sox track record. And we've had the stellar prospects ourselves. See Chris Sale if you need to take a look. Rodon will be in the same boat.

Did you take a look at the link I sent out on Boras?

fatbeard · Nov 6, 2014

brett05 said:
Considering the guys that were as touted they have not, I don't know why you say that. If he was a White Sox he would have been promoted last season. That's the Whtie Sox track record. And we've had the stellar prospects ourselves. See Chris Sale if you need to take a look. Rodon will be in the same boat.

Did you take a look at the link I sent out on Boras?

Chris Sale's agent is not Scott Boras, he was not the #2 pick, and he was not MiLB POY. Bryant is a different tier of prospect than Sale ever was. It's a lazy analogy and an apples to oranges comparison.

brett05 · Nov 6, 2014

fatbeard said:
Chris Sale's agent is not Scott Boras, he was not the #2 pick, and he was not MiLB POY. Bryant is a different tier of prospect than Sale ever was. It's a lazy analogy and an apples to oranges comparison.

I do not want to argue with you. I'm done on the topic with you.

SilenceS · Nov 6, 2014

The Sox have had uber prospects? Gordon Beckham? Chris Sale is the closest thing yall have ever had to the Cubs top 3 in the last 10 or so years. Im not even being a dick.

brett05 · Nov 6, 2014

SilenceS said:
The Sox have had uber prospects? Gordon Beckham? Chris Sale is the closest thing yall have ever had to the Cubs top 3 in the last 10 or so years. Im not even being a (jerk).

I think you have difficulties comparing classes. And I think if the Cubs got the call they'd trade Kris for Chris straight up in a heartbeat.

SilenceS · Nov 6, 2014

brett05 said:
I think you have difficulties comparing classes. And I think if the Cubs got the call they'd trade Kris for Chris straight up in a heartbeat.

Im sure people would. That still has nothing to do with your statement.

brett05 · Nov 6, 2014

SilenceS said:
Im sure people would. That still has nothing to do with your statement.

The fact i sin general both teams have done a poor job with first round picks until recently.

Kris Bryant expectations

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