The Jon Lester Discussion Thread

theOHIOSTATE! · Nov 21, 2014

I offer 4 yrs @ 71.5 million and wait for a response. No way do I go 6 yrs with a guy in his 30s already unless the price is really reasonable, and I assume I am going to lose a yr or much of one during that span/get a #3/4 starter for the last 2 yrs of that deal. I might go 4yr/88 million at most....somewhere like that. 5 yrs maybe 103.5 milion or so.

I don't see why some people want to break the bank on a guy who will be in his mid 30s (33 is your mid 30s imho) by the time we are legit contenders for the WS based on the trajectory we are on now.

If Lester was 28, it be a COMPLETELY different story, but he is 31 next yr, and he has put that arms through the ringer over the last what 8 seasons?

Eventually give him top ten money for sure, but no way do you give this guy top 5 money in his 30s....that's a recipe for disaster.

If the Bosox wanna give dude 5 yrs/ 125 million the cubs front office should let them have him.

Your thoughts about Lester and how much they should invest in him?

brett05 · Nov 21, 2014

theOHIOSTATE! said:
I offer 4 yrs @ 71.5 million and wait for a response.

I stopped reading right here. If that is the offer Lester never takes a call from the Cubs again and asks his new team for a NTC to the Cubs.

TC in Mississippi · Nov 21, 2014

theOHIOSTATE! said:
I offer 4 yrs @ 71.5 million and wait for a response. No way do I go 6 yrs with a guy in his 30s already unless the price is really reasonable, and I assume I am going to lose a yr or much of one during that span/get a #3/4 starter for the last 2 yrs of that deal. I might go 4yr/88 million at most....somewhere like that. 5 yrs maybe 103.5 milion or so.

I don't see why some people want to break the bank on a guy who will be in his mid 30s (33 is your mid 30s imho) by the time we are legit contenders for the WS based on the trajectory we are on now.

If Lester was 28, it be a COMPLETELY different story, but he is 31 next yr, and he has put that arms through the ringer over the last what 8 seasons?

Eventually give him top ten money for sure, but no way do you give this guy top 5 money in his 30s....that's a recipe for disaster.

If the Bosox wanna give dude 5 yrs/ 125 million the cubs front office should let them have him.

Your thoughts about Lester and how much they should invest in him?

Huh, took me a minute to digest that one. Umm you realize that Boston offered him 4 year $70 million 5 months ago and negotiations shut down cold and soon he was traded to Oakland. They've since publicly admitted that it was an ill advised lowball offer. Last week they reportedly offered 6 years between $110 million and $120 million and most observers thought that was low. If he signs in Boston it'll be no lower than 6 years $133 mil. If it's another club I think it's 6 years $138-$140 million. I think in the end the Cubs sign him for that. Scherzer will sign for more than that.

Curious though what do you think TOR pitchers cost?

WindyCity · Nov 21, 2014

6 years 140-145

And I am prepared to eat the last 2 years when he is losing his stuff.

When you are desperate for pitching you need to pay more.

Parade_Rain · Nov 21, 2014

Why are the Cubs desperate? They are barely at the beginning of any window.

CSF77 · Nov 21, 2014

Cap 7 years 175 mil. Realistic offer 6 at 135 mil. That is the area I expect him to sign at. 77 mil is a joke offer

CSF77 · Nov 21, 2014

Parade_Rain said:
Why are the Cubs desperate? They are barely at the beginning of any window.

They are not. That is why the opinion is that they will lose out. Next year at this point when Price is up I would expect them to toss 200 mil his way. This year it would not surprise me if they gave Wood another shot at it and resigned Hammel. That is what I am expecting right now.

TL1961 · Nov 21, 2014

brett05 said:
I stopped reading right here. If that is the offer Lester never takes a call from the Cubs again and asks his new team for a NTC to the Cubs.

I'm with you. I couldn't make it past that sentence.

I'd go 6/150. I KNOW in year 6 (and year 5, probably) he is declining. OK, technically, a guy who is 30 now may decline most of the contract. But there are two things to consider. First, you NEED to get a TOR starter, and to overpay in $, and not pay anything in personnel is a good way to go. Second, by 2020, $25 million per year won't be considered high. Salaries only go up. a year from now, a lesser pitcher will get $25 million, and the year after that, and so on.

I think this argument makes sense, but I also feel, in the interest of full disclosure, I was arguing the same thing back when Kevin Brown was a Free Agent. And we know how that worked out.

chibears55 · Nov 21, 2014

6/138 - 141 for lester, cubs might have to add a 7th yr though to nab him away from Boston. ..

I just want to throw this out to everyone who thinks they dont need to make a big push for TOR pitching this offseason because of the possible FA next year... keep in mind there no guarantee right now that all the ones who may be FA will still be one next year,,,
Chance they extend not just with current team during season but also could extend with new team if they get traded..
Then there the injury possibility ...

This is why i say they need to make sure they get 1 TOR starter this off season

TL1961 · Nov 21, 2014

CSF77 said:
They are not. That is why the opinion is that they will lose out. Next year at this point when Price is up I would expect them to toss 200 mil his way. This year it would not surprise me if they gave Wood another shot at it and resigned Hammel. That is what I am expecting right now.

I am one (maybe the only one) who believes Wood should be given a shot. If they can upgrade to the point they can move on, great. But I think veterans who pitch every 5 days and give you a lot of innings are underappreciated. Don't get me wrong. I wasn't any happier with his 2014 than anyone else. But he can definitely help the team in 2015, and they aren't at a point where they can kick him to the curb.

It's easy to get caught up in "Arrieta in an ace. Hendricks is great". But they haven't proven they can work a heavy load.

Travis Wood can certainly still be an asset for this team. There's a reason guys like a Jason Marquis, for example, always found work, in spite of numbers taht were far from impressive. Where are you with a rotation with no vets like those guys? Arm troubles? Burned out bullpen?

I pray we don't need Edwin Jackson in the starting five. But unless we really add some durable starters, Wood will be there.

TL1961 · Nov 21, 2014

chibears55 said:
6/138 - 141 for lester, cubs might have to add a 7th yr though to nab him away from Boston. ..

I just want to throw this out to everyone who thinks they dont need to make a big push for TOR pitching this offseason because of the possible FA next year... keep in mind there no guarantee right now that all the ones who may be FA will still be one next year,,,
Chance they extend not just with current team during season but also could extend with new team if they get traded..
Then there the injury possibility ...

This is why i say they need to make sure they get 1 TOR starter this off season

I'd add $ to the 6 year deal, but try like hell to avoid a 7 year deal.

chibears55 · Nov 21, 2014

TL1961 said:
I'd add $ to the 6 year deal, but try like hell to avoid a 7 year deal.

Dont know how much cash per their willing to go..
If Boston offer is 6/140s to 150, cubs may have to add a 7th yr, over paying him up to 150-160 for 6 yrs.

Part of me wouldn't mind seeing them get Zimmerman if it doesn't kill them in prospects and they get an extension. .

Hamel solid too because of his 4 yr deal and option on 5th but that might cost them a couple solid prospects

brett05 · Nov 21, 2014

TL1961 said:
I'm with you. I couldn't make it past that sentence.

I'd go 6/150. I KNOW in year 6 (and year 5, probably) he is declining. OK, technically, a guy who is 30 now may decline most of the contract. But there are two things to consider. First, you NEED to get a TOR starter, and to overpay in $, and not pay anything in personnel is a good way to go. Second, by 2020, $25 million per year won't be considered high. Salaries only go up. a year from now, a lesser pitcher will get $25 million, and the year after that, and so on.

I think this argument makes sense, but I also feel, in the interest of full disclosure, I was arguing the same thing back when Kevin Brown was a Free Agent. And we know how that worked out.

I loved Brown

theOHIOSTATE! · Nov 21, 2014

TC in Mississippi said:
Huh, took me a minute to digest that one. Umm you realize that Boston offered him 4 year $70 million 5 months ago and negotiations shut down cold and soon he was traded to Oakland. They've since publicly admitted that it was an ill advised lowball offer. Last week they reportedly offered 6 years between $110 million and $120 million and most observers thought that was low. If he signs in Boston it'll be no lower than 6 years $133 mil. If it's another club I think it's 6 years $138-$140 million. I think in the end the Cubs sign him for that. Scherzer will sign for more than that.

Curious though what do you think TOR pitchers cost?

I looked at the top pitching contracts at the moment and put him around 8th/9th and made an opener I thought made it clear I wasn't prepared to go much above that point.

Maybe I looked at old numbers inadvertently as I am not a baseball fan/have not been a fan recently at all. I literally probably watched 2 games last yr.

I think it's ridiculous to pay a 31 yr old (he'll be 31 when he next steps on a diamond) for 7 yrs at that rate (23M+). Sorry, i just couldn't see myself doing it unless you were really close to being a WS contender or something and it was clearly a move to put you in position to win a WS/ vie for one within a window of several yrs.

I might be wrong; someone convince me why.

As for how much TOR pitchers cost....here are the top 25. If you define TOR as 1s I suppose they make ~ 16/17 million as a median if you look at #16/17 on this list. Lester is definitely worth a premium, and you factor in salary inflation.

1
Clayton Kershaw at
Starting Pitcher
$32,571,428
2
Justin Verlander at
Starting Pitcher
$28,000,000
3
Cliff Lee at
Starting Pitcher
$25,000,000

Zack Greinke at
Starting Pitcher
$25,000,000
5
Felix Hernandez at
Starting Pitcher
$24,857,142
6
Cole Hamels at
Starting Pitcher
$23,500,000
7
C.C. Sabathia at
Starting Pitcher
$23,000,000
8
Masahiro Tanaka at
Starting Pitcher
$22,000,000
9
Matt Cain at
Starting Pitcher
$20,833,333
10
Mark Buehrle at
Starting Pitcher
$20,000,000
11
Adam Wainwright at
Starting Pitcher
$19,500,000
12
C.J. Wilson at
Starting Pitcher
$18,500,000
13
Jered Weaver at
Starting Pitcher
$18,200,000
14
Tim Lincecum at
Starting Pitcher
$18,000,000
15
Anibal Sanchez at
Starting Pitcher
$16,800,000
16
Jordan Zimmermann at
Starting Pitcher
$16,500,000
17
John Danks at
Starting Pitcher
$15,750,000
18
Chad Billingsley at
Starting Pitcher
$14,000,000
19
Matt Harrison at
Starting Pitcher
$13,200,000
20
Yovani Gallardo at
Starting Pitcher
$13,000,000

Edwin Jackson at
Starting Pitcher
$13,000,000

Scott Kazmir at
Starting Pitcher
$13,000,000
23
Matt Garza at
Starting Pitcher
$12,500,000

Jorge De La Rosa at
Starting Pitcher
$12,500,000
25
Clay Buchholz at
Starting Pitcher
$12,250,000

Ubaldo Jimenez at
Starting Pitcher
$12,250,000

TL1961 · Nov 21, 2014

brett05 said:
I loved Brown

He was a sure thing.

Except, it turns out, he wasn't.

DewsSox79 · Nov 21, 2014

brett05 said:
I stopped reading right here. If that is the offer Lester never takes a call from the Cubs again and asks his new team for a NTC to the Cubs.

well said!

Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

TL1961 · Nov 21, 2014

theOHIOSTATE! said:
I looked at the top pitching contracts at the moment and put him around 8th/9th and made an opener I thought made it clear I wasn't prepared to go much above that point.

Maybe I looked at old numbers inadvertently as I am not a baseball fan/have not been a fan recently at all. I literally probably watched 2 games last yr.

I think it's ridiculous to pay a 31 yr old (he'll be 31 when he next steps on a diamond) for 7 yrs at that rate (23M+). Sorry, i just couldn't see myself doing it unless you were really close to being a WS contender or something and it was clearly a move to put you in position to win a WS/ vie for one within a window of several yrs.

I might be wrong; someone convince me why.

As for how much TOR pitchers cost....here are the top 25. If you define TOR as 1s I suppose they make ~ 16/17 million as a median if you look at #16/17 on this list. Lester is definitely worth a premium, and you factor in salary inflation.

1
Clayton Kershaw at
Starting Pitcher
$32,571,428
2
Justin Verlander at
Starting Pitcher
$28,000,000
3
Cliff Lee at
Starting Pitcher
$25,000,000

Zack Greinke at
Starting Pitcher
$25,000,000
5
Felix Hernandez at
Starting Pitcher
$24,857,142
6
Cole Hamels at
Starting Pitcher
$23,500,000
7
C.C. Sabathia at
Starting Pitcher
$23,000,000
8
Masahiro Tanaka at
Starting Pitcher
$22,000,000
9
Matt Cain at
Starting Pitcher
$20,833,333
10
Mark Buehrle at
Starting Pitcher
$20,000,000
11
Adam Wainwright at
Starting Pitcher
$19,500,000
12
C.J. Wilson at
Starting Pitcher
$18,500,000
13
Jered Weaver at
Starting Pitcher
$18,200,000
14
Tim Lincecum at
Starting Pitcher
$18,000,000
15
Anibal Sanchez at
Starting Pitcher
$16,800,000
16
Jordan Zimmermann at
Starting Pitcher
$16,500,000
17
John Danks at
Starting Pitcher
$15,750,000
18
Chad Billingsley at
Starting Pitcher
$14,000,000
19
Matt Harrison at
Starting Pitcher
$13,200,000
20
Yovani Gallardo at
Starting Pitcher
$13,000,000

Edwin Jackson at
Starting Pitcher
$13,000,000

Scott Kazmir at
Starting Pitcher
$13,000,000
23
Matt Garza at
Starting Pitcher
$12,500,000

Jorge De La Rosa at
Starting Pitcher
$12,500,000
25
Clay Buchholz at
Starting Pitcher
$12,250,000

Ubaldo Jimenez at
Starting Pitcher
$12,250,000

Mark buehrle must wear a ski mask when he picks up his check.

DewsSox79 · Nov 21, 2014

Parade_Rain said:
Why are the Cubs desperate? They are barely at the beginning of any window.

no one knows if there is an actual window that exists since no one is proven with no rotation, or atleast an ace.

Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

DewsSox79 · Nov 21, 2014

TL1961 said:
Mark buehrle must wear a ski mask when he picks up his check.

only pitches 200 innings a year. last year: 3.39 era, 115 era+ well worth the money.

Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

WindyCity · Nov 22, 2014

He wants to be in Boston.

The Cubs have to force him to leave 20 million dollars on the table to do it.

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