Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

CSF77 · Jul 7, 2015

got that from Beck. Thanks. Was on my I-phone. Not much resource to check at that time.

We will see how it turns out but I'm expecting a rush job. If they really wanted to slow cook they would have gone H.S. bat or pitcher. Not a college bat.

Still, With them making the change it really signals that they are going to move Castro sooner than later.

beckdawg · Jul 7, 2015

CSF77 said:
We will see how it turns out but I'm expecting a rush job. If they really wanted to slow cook they would have gone H.S. bat or pitcher. Not a college bat.

I think drafting college has lest to do with time to majors and more to do with how sure you are the player is good. Being quick to the minors is obviously a nice side effect but I don't think you ever draft thinking a player will be in the majors in 2 years. Happ was arguably the best college bat in the draft and as they did with Bryant and Schwarber before him they took him because it's a worked pretty well so far.

As for the 2B thing, I don't entirely get it either. If he can play CF I would expect that to be a more valuable position than 2B. But as far as what they are doing, it wouldn't shock me to see both Baez and Castro traded at some point. I think you want to be sure that Russell is the player you think he is but if so, you have a multitude of interesting 2B options presuming you move Russell to SS. Torres is hitting the crap out of the ball and while he might stick at SS he certainly could shift over to 2B. Happ if he moves to 2B as suggested would be an option. Alcantara if he figures things back out is a 2B option. Bruno is a lessor 2B option but the dude hits. Like Bruno, Chesny Young is hitting really well at A+ but doesn't have much power.

beckdawg · Jul 7, 2015

Oh follow up on Baez btw, looking at his instagram account it appears his cast is off. https://instagram.com/javy23baez/

TC in Mississippi · Jul 7, 2015

See I've never believed this will be a team of homegrown players. For instance if Happ can play 2 positions up the middle it expands the options for trade partners. Say they need a CF with a skill set they like and one team needs a CF the other need 2B. Instant leverage. Baez should be able to play 4 positions and also gives leverage. I think it's a mistake to think of these guys solely as Cubs players. I think Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, and Schwarber are cornerstones. I think everyone else could be traded for better fits. This team ultimately needs a mix of OBP, defense and low K rates it doesn't have now. Obviously it needs young pitching as well. I expect a ton of deals over the next two years.

CSF77 · Jul 8, 2015

If it pans out: SS: Russell (RH) 2B: Happ (SH), 3B Bryant (RH), 1B Rizzo (LH), RF Soler (RH), LF (open), C Schwarber (LH), CF (open)
Not the line up order. Would end up like a mirror image if they plug Almora in CF and get a legit LH hitting LF. Or plug Schwarber out there and retain Montero.

I like the idea of line up balance.

CSF77 · Jul 8, 2015

TC in Mississippi said:
See I've never believed this will be a team of homegrown players. For instance if Happ can play 2 positions up the middle it expands the options for trade partners. Say they need a CF with a skill set they like and one team needs a CF the other need 2B. Instant leverage. Baez should be able to play 4 positions and also gives leverage. I think it's a mistake to think of these guys solely as Cubs players. I think Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, and Schwarber are cornerstones. I think everyone else could be traded for better fits. This team ultimately needs a mix of OBP, defense and low K rates it doesn't have now. Obviously it needs young pitching as well. I expect a ton of deals over the next two years.

Performance dictates if they stick or not. We have seen that plenty so far on the hitting and pitching front.

TC in Mississippi · Jul 8, 2015

CSF77 said:
Performance dictates if they stick or not. We have seen that plenty so far on the hitting and pitching front.

Of course that's true but when most people talk about trades they talk about trading players who underperform in some way. What I'm saying is that fit is sometimes more important than performance. Sometimes you trade a power bat for an OBP guy, sometimes you sacrifice hitting for defense. What the Cubs have done is build a system with a certain kind of depth that gives them options and leverage to build a winner. They also have money. I just think that, after the core of Rizzo, Russeell, Bryant and Scwarber, we should care less about the names on the uniforms and more about how you field a winner.

CSF77 · Jul 8, 2015

I can buy that

beckdawg · Jul 8, 2015

TC in Mississippi said:
Of course that's true but when most people talk about trades they talk about trading players who underperform in some way. What I'm saying is that fit is sometimes more important than performance. Sometimes you trade a power bat for an OBP guy, sometimes you sacrifice hitting for defense. What the Cubs have done is build a system with a certain kind of depth that gives them options and leverage to build a winner. They also have money. I just think that, after the core of Rizzo, Russeell, Bryant and Scwarber, we should care less about the names on the uniforms and more about how you field a winner.

I do agree with you about fit. I'd point out that its not always about having the best individual player. With Rizzo Bryant presumably Soler and Schwarber the cubs are going to have a good offense. Those 4 all are likely in the 120-130+ wRC+ range. Bryant right now is 137. Rizzo is 161. Soler isn't yet having the year you would expect but still is at 95 and was 146 last year. So even if you conservatively say they are 120 wRC+ players you have 4 of your 8 positions players that are 20% better than league average. They are going to score runs in the future. So even if Almora ends up Billy Hamilton as a hitter without his speed you're still going to have a good offense. And that's before we talk about Russell and whomever ends up the 2nd MI with him with multiple choices who are all likely to be above average hitters.

Also, I would point out trading guys who underperform isn't always the best idea because you get far less value. Trading Almora and Alcantara at this point doesn't really net you much and chances are they will end up making you regret what you trade them for. I'm clearly higher on Alcantara than most so my views may be biased. But as an example, prior to being injured I would have much rather traded Baez than Alcantara. When talking to Oakland last year Theo essentially said that Shark wasn't available without Russell. It's likely the same way for the cubs trying to acquire whatever pitchers they are after. Alcantara even if I'm wrong should have a decent shot at least being an average MLB player and it's entirely possible given enough time he reaches his full potential. On the other hand if you deal him now you get maybe a #4 or 5 starter individually.

So, as the cubs make moves going toward the future, I'd rather they sell some of their higher valued prospects that return the most rather than some who's luster has fallen off some. I really see no way barring Prior/Wood like calamity of injuries that their offense wont be solid even with 2-3 guys who might not be amazing. That in turn presents an opportunity to play guys you might be less sure about. That's why it wouldn't shock me to see them move both Castro and Baez at some point. Assuming you get quality value for both I'd be ok gambling that someone with Alcantara's skill set figures it out because even if he doesn't you've got options behind him and if he does then you've clearly got a really good player.

beckdawg · Jul 10, 2015

Junior Lake is having an interesting year. His walk rate was up pretty high in the winter leagues and I mentioned it perhaps was a bit early to write him off. In that vein, he's sitting at a 13.4% walk rate over 139 PAs in AAA. The down side here is his K rate is also sitting at 26.2%. But given his previous high walk rate was 8.5% last year in AAA he's clearly changed up his approach a bit. My guess is he's taking more pitches and thus striking out more.

With all that said, he's hitting .283/.378/.394 on the season which is by far the highest OBP he's had at any level. Even with the K's his batting average isn't that far off his A+ high BA of .315. It also looks like he's sacrificing some power with the new approach. The PCL tends to be pretty hitter friendly but his ISO dropped from .167 two years ago in AAA, to .138 last year and finally .110. I'm not sure that's a bad thing though. Reminds me a bit of Major League with Willie Mays Hayes.

I wish fangraphs had minor league splits as I'd be interesting to see how he's faring vs righties. He's always hit lefties well even in the majors at .287/.335/.450 and that's before his increased walk rate. He had 5.9%/25.4% bb/k rates in that split.

I doubt he'll be much of a starter at least for the cubs but he's not a bad bench player if this keeps up. Could end up being a decent platoon guy some day too

CSF77 · Jul 10, 2015

If he was a left handed hitter he would be needed on the team. As it is he is injury reserve right now.

CSF77 · Jul 10, 2015

beckdawg said:
I do agree with you about fit. I'd point out that its not always about having the best individual player. With Rizzo Bryant presumably Soler and Schwarber the cubs are going to have a good offense. Those 4 all are likely in the 120-130+ wRC+ range. Bryant right now is 137. Rizzo is 161. Soler isn't yet having the year you would expect but still is at 95 and was 146 last year. So even if you conservatively say they are 120 wRC+ players you have 4 of your 8 positions players that are 20% better than league average. They are going to score runs in the future. So even if Almora ends up Billy Hamilton as a hitter without his speed you're still going to have a good offense. And that's before we talk about Russell and whomever ends up the 2nd MI with him with multiple choices who are all likely to be above average hitters.

Also, I would point out trading guys who underperform isn't always the best idea because you get far less value. Trading Almora and Alcantara at this point doesn't really net you much and chances are they will end up making you regret what you trade them for. I'm clearly higher on Alcantara than most so my views may be biased. But as an example, prior to being injured I would have much rather traded Baez than Alcantara. When talking to Oakland last year Theo essentially said that Shark wasn't available without Russell. It's likely the same way for the cubs trying to acquire whatever pitchers they are after. Alcantara even if I'm wrong should have a decent shot at least being an average MLB player and it's entirely possible given enough time he reaches his full potential. On the other hand if you deal him now you get maybe a #4 or 5 starter individually.

So, as the cubs make moves going toward the future, I'd rather they sell some of their higher valued prospects that return the most rather than some who's luster has fallen off some. I really see no way barring Prior/Wood like calamity of injuries that their offense wont be solid even with 2-3 guys who might not be amazing. That in turn presents an opportunity to play guys you might be less sure about. That's why it wouldn't shock me to see them move both Castro and Baez at some point. Assuming you get quality value for both I'd be ok gambling that someone with Alcantara's skill set figures it out because even if he doesn't you've got options behind him and if he does then you've clearly got a really good player.

They are looking for a LH OF bat. So I do not believe Alcantara is in the plans. You would think that they would have promoted him.

I've been thinking Ben Revere. Phills should be looking to deal and John Paplbom has said that the Cubs are his #1 choice in landing. Ok this is the way I feel about it. If you deal make it a mega. Revere has a year of control. John you are taking contract but Philly will absorb to get better returns. They also have Hamels but I'm thinking that is just too much. Not to mention that the Cubs do not need an ace. Arrieta has become one. They need a 2nd (quality) LH starter. With Matz pulling his Lat that takes the Mets out of the talks. Kaz's tricept strain puts him in questionable goods.

And so on.

Still adding Revere and Pap. Gives a leader in the pen vs the revolving door. Legit lead off. I would offer 1 MI (Castro, Torres or Baez). Vogelbach and 2 pitching prospects. (1 of top 3 then a lower one like Black)

I still feel the best plan is to wait until the off season to make a run at Price. Barring injury to one of the 4, the biggest need is finding more runs. They need a upgrade to Fowler. (Revere will need a platoon anyways so it should work out)

JP Hochbaum · Jul 10, 2015

beckdawg said:
Junior Lake is having an interesting year. His walk rate was up pretty high in the winter leagues and I mentioned it perhaps was a bit early to write him off. In that vein, he's sitting at a 13.4% walk rate over 139 PAs in AAA. The down side here is his K rate is also sitting at 26.2%. But given his previous high walk rate was 8.5% last year in AAA he's clearly changed up his approach a bit. My guess is he's taking more pitches and thus striking out more.

With all that said, he's hitting .283/.378/.394 on the season which is by far the highest OBP he's had at any level. Even with the K's his batting average isn't that far off his A+ high BA of .315. It also looks like he's sacrificing some power with the new approach. The PCL tends to be pretty hitter friendly but his ISO dropped from .167 two years ago in AAA, to .138 last year and finally .110. I'm not sure that's a bad thing though. Reminds me a bit of Major League with Willie Mays Hayes.

I wish fangraphs had minor league splits as I'd be interesting to see how he's faring vs righties. He's always hit lefties well even in the majors at .287/.335/.450 and that's before his increased walk rate. He had 5.9%/25.4% bb/k rates in that split.

I doubt he'll be much of a starter at least for the cubs but he's not a bad bench player if this keeps up. Could end up being a decent platoon guy some day too

That is great that you noticed that about Lake. I could only hope Baez can make a similar adjustment, even if it means sacrificing some power as well.

I should have access to those stats for Lake and will try to post them here.

beckdawg · Jul 10, 2015

CSF77 said:
I've been thinking Ben Revere.

I don't really see Revere as much of an upgrade if any. Fowler's been worth 89 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR. Revere is at 98 and 1.6 respectively. If you buy into the concept of WAR in general that suggests he's been worth roughly 1 win over half a season or so. And the thing is this is the upside on Revere. There's not much if any more. Fowler has played pretty bad lately but the point here is that even with him playing bad Revere's only been worth about 10% more as a hitter. I suppose you could argue that as a WC team right now that 1 game over the next half of the season might matter but I don't think you make a trade with the hopes of making a wild card. You trade to win deeper in the post season.

I've said it else where but to me that's not really fixing the problem. Parra similarly has his own issues too as a name that's been thrown around. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR largely for crap defense. He has a 125 wRC+ though. To me, trading for either with the intent of replacing Fowler would be making a move for the sake of making a move because it's hard to argue it significantly makes the team better. And while you can suggest a marginal improvement is still an improvement I'll continue to go back to what I've said about Fowler. He had a wRC+ of 127 in April, last year it was 124 and for his career its 105. This is the very definition of a career year for Parra as his previous best was 106 wRC+. Likewise, this is Revere's highest in his career.

So, if you don't buy Fowler's 2014 season, you're still talking about his career rates being better than all but this half season for Parra. Fowler's 40 points off his career rates vs righties. As such, it's not that he can't hit them he's just not doing it this year for whatever reason. He's 50 points off last years rates vs righties so clearly he's done it recently not to mention I'm guessing his april marks vs righties were decent as well.

Zips has Fowler at .254/.350/.392 the rest of the way(108 wRC+ 0.9 fWAR). Streamer has him at .248/.341/.379(101 wRC+ 0.5 fWAR). And Depth Charts has him at .251/.346/.385(104 wRC+ 0.6 fWAR). I'd argue these are fairly conservative estimates as well considering he's a career .267/.361/.415 hitter. On the contrary, the three places have Revere at 0.8, 0.2 and 0.4 fWAR and none of them have him over 100 wRC+. For Parra, only Zips has him above 100 wRC+ at 104 and they have him at 1, 0.8 and 0.8 fWAR.

CSF77 · Jul 10, 2015

More to do with getting a better LH split vs over all. This would be a non point if Fowler was not sucking as a LH batter.

Add to it Fowler is a FA and making 9 mil this year. They have a need for a CF next year.

Platoon him with Szczur and wait to see if Almora gets past this rut in AAA next year.

Boobaby1 · Jul 10, 2015

I think I read at CCO that Turner is done for the year having to have elbow surgery. Not TJ, but surgery nonetheless.

With Wada, Hammel, and now Turner, they are going to put this pitcher thing in full throttle. You don't want to come this far, with possibly Hammel going on the DL and toss this season away.

beckdawg · Jul 20, 2015

Lake now has an OBP over 400 in AAA(.321/.409/.494). He's still striking out a bit too much(24.2%) and his BABIP has inflated his numbers a bit at .411 but he's probably going to be a .330-.350 BABIP guy because of his speed. He's a pretty intriguing guy for the stretch and going into next season.

CSF77 · Jul 24, 2015

[video=youtube;qS01cUVCI3o]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qS01cUVCI3o[/video]

CSF77 · Jul 24, 2015

He has really quieted down his swing. He used to be ready to jump out of the boat and now even his leg lift is small. I really want to see how he does on a 2nd attempt. That was from his first game back.

SilenceS · Jul 24, 2015

CSF77 said:
He has really quieted down his swing. He used to be ready to jump out of the boat and now even his leg lift is small. I really want to see how he does on a 2nd attempt. That was from his first game back.

He still does the leg kick. I am guessing he had two strikes on him. That has been his approach with two strikes. When he doesn't have two strikes, he still has the leg kick but his swing is still quieter. He also stands on top the plate now. He basically has taken Rizzo approach but from the right side. You see how quiet Rizzo is with two strikes? Baez is trying to imitate that. He has come a long way with his approach. This is why I keep telling people throw out last year stats because he is almost a completely different hitter in the box, but still has the bat speed. I think his quote was, "A 400 foot homerun is the same as a 450 foot homerun". Thats the mind set he has now.

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