Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[THERIOT2]

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I don't see how that Baez projection is possible unless his BABIP is like .370. Assuming you play 162 games you're probably looking at 700 PAs or 600 ABs give or take. If James is saying he's gonna hit .242 that means he's going to get 145 hits out of the 386 possible chances where he doesn't K.

145 hits ? Okay but remember his slugging abilities and he could get 55 extra base hits out of that 145l . That could mean 25 doubles 5 triples and 25 round trippers. To me new hitting coach (John Mallee) has to get through to Baez by putting up an executable plan. BTW I can't remember the last successful batting coach in a Cubs uniform.

[TC in Mississippi]

I wouldn't underestimate Valbuena's value. I agree that he's probably a role player/bench guy but I guarantee you that there are GM's that see a poor man's Sandoval and that until he's exposed for being less than that his value is probably a starting pitcher. The Cubs have even indicated they're in no rush to trade him and that offers had better be good. In the end they might take less but until they have to I don't believe they will.

[CSF77]

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145 hits ? Okay but remember his slugging abilities and he could get 55 extra base hits out of that 145l . That could mean 25 doubles 5 triples and 25 round trippers. To me new hitting coach (John Mallee) has to get through to Baez by putting up an executable plan. BTW I can't remember the last successful batting coach in a Cubs uniform.

SLG is a bad metric.

SLG counts a single as 1. A double as equal to 2 singles. A triple to 3 singles and a HR equal to 4 singles.

OBA gives a better rep as it shows a clearer view. A .350 OBA means he is an out .650 of the time and is not an out ..350. SLG just jumbles a bunch of values into a soup and it doesn't represent a hitter true value.

[beckdawg]

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They didnt bring him up to throw him back down so quickly. LaStella is not a guy you really want starting. No power, no speed. He can walk and thats about it. He would have to keep a .280 or above average to be worth much. He is about to turn 26 years old, so it isnt like he has much growth left in him.

Valbuena bloomed around that age. I don't think it's fair to say he doesn't have much growth left in him. Lots of players aren't star prospects and develop slower. Also, the Giants won a title with a similar no speed/power 2B. Clearly it's not ideal but you could do far worse than LaStella.

[beckdawg]

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145 hits ? Okay but remember his slugging abilities and he could get 55 extra base hits out of that 145l . That could mean 25 doubles 5 triples and 25 round trippers. To me new hitting coach (John Mallee) has to get through to Baez by putting up an executable plan. BTW I can't remember the last successful batting coach in a Cubs uniform.

I think you're missing my point. Admittedly I'm down on Baez compared to most but honestly the point I was trying to make is it's rare for someone to strike out 200 times and bat any where near .240. Players that have batted above .240 doing such since 1994 are 2009 Mark Reynolds and 2011 Drew Stubbs. There's only 24 players who've stuck out more than 180 times and hit above .240 in 20 years.

[Parade_Rain]

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I think you're missing my point. Admittedly I'm down on Baez compared to most but honestly the point I was trying to make is it's rare for someone to strike out 200 times and bat any where near .240. Players that have batted above .240 doing such since 1994 are 2009 Mark Reynolds and 2011 Drew Stubbs. There's only 24 players who've stuck out more than 180 times and hit above .240 in 20 years.

As a frame of reference, Thome did that twice (2001, 2003).

[CSF77]

Let's see how Baez is around June 1st before calling it. I believe if he is still above 30% SO's by then he will end up in AAA. But at that point Bryant should be on the team and Russell will be close. It would impact the team little.

[TC in Mississippi]

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Let's see how Baez is around June 1st before calling it. I believe if he is still above 30% SO's by then he will end up in AAA. But at that point Bryant should be on the team and Russell will be close. It would impact the team little.

I think they would deal him before sending him down. They've been adamant in saying once the key guys are up they're not going down. You could also read that as if they do go down they aren't key guys anymore but I think Baez is a special case. There are guys all over baseball drooling over that bat speed. He'll have trade value even with moderate improvement. I can see the Cubs giving up on him fairly early, I'm not predicting that and in fact doubt it but I can see it, but I don't see him going to AAA.

[TL1961]

Baez isn't going back to AAA.

[DewsSox79]

an out is an out. fuck his Ks if he gets On Base and hits bombs. lol @ BA talk.


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[TonyMontana]

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SLG is a bad metric.

SLG counts a single as 1. A double as equal to 2 singles. A triple to 3 singles and a HR equal to 4 singles.

OBA gives a better rep as it shows a clearer view. A .350 OBA means he is an out .650 of the time and is not an out ..350. SLG just jumbles a bunch of values into a soup and it doesn't represent a hitter true value.

That's why FanGraps created the ISO metric (SLG-BA)

[SilenceS]

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an out is an out. fuck his Ks if he gets On Base and hits bombs. lol @ BA talk.


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K's are overrated. They mean more for pitchers based on situations, but they arent the worse thing you can do in baseball.

[beckdawg]

Strikeouts don't advance a runner. They don't make the defense make a play. I have difficulty seeing a worse outcome for an at bat other than say a double play ball. In particular, that's why strikeouts are a good measure for pitching. They avoid putting the ball in the hands of their defense which means pitchers who are able to do that tend to be more valuable. Hitters who strikeout a lot make a pitchers job easier.

[SilenceS]

Top 20 Cubs prospect list by Sickles

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/...pects-for-2015

[DewsSox79]

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K's are overrated. They mean more for pitchers based on situations, but they arent the worse thing you can do in baseball.

thats what i was saying.


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[Parade_Rain]

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Strikeouts don't advance a runner. They don't make the defense make a play. I have difficulty seeing a worse outcome for an at bat other than say a double play ball. In particular, that's why strikeouts are a good measure for pitching. They avoid putting the ball in the hands of their defense which means pitchers who are able to do that tend to be more valuable. Hitters who strikeout a lot make a pitchers job easier.

For a significant amount of time this is true. Sometimes though a K indicates a quality AB where the hitter saw a lot of pitches and battled.

[beckdawg]

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For a significant amount of time this is true. Sometimes though a K indicates a quality AB where the hitter saw a lot of pitches and battled.

Fair enough but that would tend to be high contact types IMO who foul balls off. That doesn't seem to be the MO of the typical high K player.

[Parade_Rain]

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Fair enough but that would tend to be high contact types IMO who foul balls off. That doesn't seem to be the MO of the typical high K player.

I'm talking about players who take lots of pitches to store up info and try to get the pitch they want. Players like that are also going to have higher walk rates as they end up in 3-2 counts more than other hitters.

[JZsportsfan]

http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/gamechanger-for-cubs/

One longtime scout at the Winter Meetings told me that Kris Bryant is the best hitting prospect he has EVER SEEN. Shortstop Addison Russell is one of the Top 10 prospects in baseball. And so on.

The fun never ends

[Mr. Cub]

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http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/gamechanger-for-cubs/



The fun never ends

It does when your name is Felix Pie, Brett Jackson, Josh Vitters...

[beckdawg]

In his first 16 games in the Dominican Winter League, Arismendy Alcantara is hitting .304/.361/.482. His .843 OPS would be fifth in the league if he had enough at bats to qualify. He’d be just behind Manny Ramirez, in fact. In the DWL last year, Alcantara’s OPS was .511 in limited duty.

I'm a known mendy lover but I think he's poised to have a year that surprises people. He's been overshadowed by various big names for awhile now but he has the tools to put together a really "wow" type season. He could pretty easily have a 20/30+ season. In 70 games this year he was 10/8 and that was with him hitting .205/.254/.367 not to mention 11 doubles. Even if he only ups the average 50 points he's going to fill up the stat sheet. If he gets to 20/30 he's probably a 3 fWAR player or pretty close to it. If he improves his average more he could potentially approach 4.5-5 fWAR pretty quickly.

[JimJohnson]

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I'm a known mendy lover but I think he's poised to have a year that surprises people. He's been overshadowed by various big names for awhile now but he has the tools to put together a really "wow" type season. He could pretty easily have a 20/30+ season. In 70 games this year he was 10/8 and that was with him hitting .205/.254/.367 not to mention 11 doubles. Even if he only ups the average 50 points he's going to fill up the stat sheet. If he gets to 20/30 he's probably a 3 fWAR player or pretty close to it. If he improves his average more he could potentially approach 4.5-5 fWAR pretty quickly.

Beck, in another thread, you told me the upside for Bryant was a batting average of .275. And yet at the winter meetings, a long time scout said that Bryant was the best hitting prospect he's ever seen. Given that scout's feeling, how do you justify your position on him?