Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

CSF77 · Apr 20, 2017

fatbeard said:
No, he isn't. He is not even an established starter and there are still huge questions about whether his offense/power will ever materialize. Versatile, defense-first platoon-type players do not net TOR-type starters in a trade. Not in this universe or any other. Put down the crack pipe.

Again, Baez is an incredibly versatile defensive wiz, a skillset that is more important in the playoffs when all the pitching is great and run suppression becomes critical. Happ does not have that skillset, he's like Zobrist: A good, patient offensive player who can play a number of positions but doesn't have a special glove at any of them.

Happ is an emerging player who needs to be playing every day. Calling him up to get two PAs per week as a PH is just a jaw-droppingly stupid player development decision. Why is this so difficult?

Is there some sort of competition going on about who can make the dumbest statements about Javy Baez? Jeez...

He wouldn't get 2 PA per week. If Javy was on the team he would. That is why they would have to trade Javy and add Young to cover SS.

Happ Would be treated the same as Contreras and Almora have been. Neither were just given the time. Both have had to prove themselves and to AB's increased with it.

What I'm not understanding is your expectations for Happ. We have a track record from Hoyer. We have seen it play out based off of the impact that player gave. Even Bryant had to come up and wreck the ball. Russell had to earn SS. Schwarber at first had to earn playing time pre injury. Javy had to prove that he could become a major league talent.

None of these guys were just given their jobs. They all earned it. So ya if he comes up and just starts to crush it they will create playing time. That is expected but not the reverse.

JP Hochbaum · Apr 20, 2017

Dylan Cease 6 innings of no hit pitching yesterday. Need to keep his control and health in check and he could be here quickly.

fatbeard · Apr 20, 2017

CSF77 said:
He wouldn't get 2 PA per week. If Javy was on the team he would. That is why they would have to trade Javy and add Young to cover SS.

Chibear's idea was to promote Happ to take over LaStella's role. LaStella's role is to play once in a blue moon and PH occasionally. I'm not sure how you're misinterpreting this.

CSF77 said:
None of these guys were just given their jobs. They all earned it. So ya if he comes up and just starts to crush it they will create playing time. That is expected but not the reverse.

What a load of crap. Bryant was handed his starting job without a single regular season AB under his belt. After ST they concocted a BS story about "working on his footwork" and then brought him up right after his service time loophole was up and Mike Olt got injured. How is that "earning" his starting job? As for Russell, both Epstein and Hoyer have publicly admitted that they brought him up before his bat was ready due to injuries and Castro's awful performance. So how is that "earning" his starting job? Schwarber was promoted specifically to DH six interleague games before he ever had an MLB AB. He was then sent down and recalled to replace an injured Montero. Contreras was promoted to replace an injured and ineffective Montero. See the pattern here? None of the true marquee prospects rode the bench and slowly "created" their playing time. Almora is really first prospect to have to earn his way off the bench and into a starting role. Your creative re-interpretation of this history is strange.

chibears55 · Apr 20, 2017

fatbeard said:
Chibear's idea was to promote Happ to take over LaStella's role. LaStella's role is to play once in a blue moon and PH occasionally. I'm not sure how you're misinterpreting this..

If LaStella struggles and Happ continues to hit later in season I could very well see them bringing Happ up..
Happ would get more playing time then LaStella based on his versatility of being able to play OF along with 2B and 3B, plus he a SH where LaStella LH and plays 3B and 2B..

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fatbeard · Apr 20, 2017

chibears55 said:
If LaStella struggles and Happ continues to hit later in season I could very well see them bringing Happ up..
Happ would get more playing time then LaStella based on his versatility of being able to play OF along with 2B and 3B, plus he a SH where LaStella LH and plays 3B and 2B..

How would Happ magically "get more playing time" than LaStella does now when the exact circumstances that cause LaStella to hardly play now would still exist with Happ? Who sits when Happ plays? Schwarber? Bryant? Zobrist? Baez? Heyward? There are not enough ABs to go around with Happ on the roster without impeding his development by having him sit with his thumbs up his ass 6 days a week. You aren't think this through.

CSF77 · Apr 20, 2017

fatbeard said:
How would Happ magically "get more playing time" than LaStella does now when the exact circumstances that cause LaStella to hardly play now would still exist with Happ? Who sits when Happ plays? Schwarber? Bryant? Zobrist? Baez? Heyward? There are not enough ABs to go around with Happ on the roster without impeding his development by having him sit with his thumbs up his ass 6 days a week. You aren't think this through.

He wouldn't come up unless Zo got injured.

Add to it he would get Baez's playing time if they traded Baez. I doubt they would ever trade Zo but both sharing the playing time at first then Happ getting more action as his numbers improve.

The bottom line is they are not going to promote him unless there is enough AB's to justify it. Just based off his clock it is counterproductive. But easing him into the starter role should be expected. Not a starting gig with out him facing major league talent. If you are suggesting that it is a good thing that you do not have a say on the team direction.

Bryant hit right out of the gate. He earned his role. But even so they were promoting him at that point. So yes it was a box office decision vs a baseball operations decision. Still the kid did not struggle so a mute point.

DanTown · Apr 21, 2017

Um, it's great and all that Happ is having a power surge but here's his slash

.246/.306/.579

The slugging over BA is obviously going to regress and the fact he has an ok walk rate is something they'd likely want to see him do better with. The guy they'd call up in case of an injury is probably his teammate, Jeimer Candelario

.309/.415/.691

High K-Rate but an incredible start (13 XBH in 55 AB). Also already been up.

CSF77 · Apr 21, 2017

DanTown said:
Um, it's great and all that Happ is having a power surge but here's his slash

.246/.306/.579

The slugging over BA is obviously going to regress and the fact he has an ok walk rate is something they'd likely want to see him do better with. The guy they'd call up in case of an injury is probably his teammate, Jeimer Candelario

.309/.415/.691

High K-Rate but an incredible start (13 XBH in 55 AB). Also already been up.

Jeimer has deserved it for sure. The problem is the 2 spots that he can play are manned by Bryzzo.

That tends to put a damper into his impact.

Let's put it this way: if he gets called up for injury replacement it jeopardizes the season.

chibears55 · Apr 22, 2017

DanTown said:
Um, it's great and all that Happ is having a power surge but here's his slash

.246/.306/.579

The slugging over BA is obviously going to regress and the fact he has an ok walk rate is something they'd likely want to see him do better with. The guy they'd call up in case of an injury is probably his teammate, Jeimer Candelario

.309/.415/.691

High K-Rate but an incredible start (13 XBH in 55 AB). Also already been up.

Last 3 games he 0 for 12 6 Ks 1 BB

See how he bounces back from that

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CSF77 · Apr 22, 2017

chibears55 said:
Last 3 games he 0 for 12 6 Ks 1 BB

See how he bounces back from that

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Happ: 1-4 HR played CF.
Candelario: 1-3 with a walk. 2B

It seem that they are building up Happ's flexibility to bring him up. I'm seeing him in a bench role when he does. If the plan was to start him he would be sitting on 2B every day. So their vision is Zo 2.0.

Candelario has played 1B/3B. He is insurance for a injury to those 2. Even then Baez would the starts if either went down.

I still believe that Candelario is just building up trade weight right now.

beckdawg · Apr 22, 2017

Obviously it's still early but the worst hitting 3B teams that sorta make sense right now are

Mets - Jose Reyes .097/.176/.129 and a -8 wRC+
Braves - Adonis Garcia .197/.234/.311 and a 48 wRC+
Red Sox - Pablo Sandoval .214/.262/.393 and a 79 wRC+
Padres - Ryan Schimpf .120/.313/.300 and a 81 wRC+
Giants - Eduardo Nunez .300/.328/.350 and a 90 wRC+

Maikel Franco(Phillies) is hitting .164/.246/.344 and a 62 wRC+ but he's enough of a prospect I doubt they would give up on him yet. Likewise Anthony Rendon(nats) is hitting .237/.308/.271 and a 63 wRC+ but he's good enough the probably give him time. You could also look at Candelario as a 1B replacement. The Phillies in particular have issues at the corners with Franco and Tommy Joseph(.212/.250/.308 and a 52 wRC+).

Of those teams, the mets and Phillies don't really have the pitching to match up in a trade in terms of minor leaguers. Boston also has Devers in AA so I doubt they'd deal. SF has Christian Arroyo in AAA but in theory could move Tyler Beede. So realistically the two most likely teams to me seem like Atlanta and SD. Cal Quantrill is a little worse prospect ranking wise for SD but you could add a player or two. They also have Adrian Morejon and Anderson Espinoza. They don't really have a 3B of the future right now. Atlanta has all the pitching in the world. Assuming Swanson is their SS going forward and Ozzie Albies is there future 2B, they do have Kevin Maitan who's a huge prospect but just turned 17. Best case you're talking 3-4 years and he has yet to play state side. They also have Austin Riley in A+ who's a decent prospect but still 2-3 years away as well.

CSF77 · Apr 22, 2017

beckdawg said:
Obviously it's still early but the worst hitting 3B teams that sorta make sense right now are

Mets - Jose Reyes .097/.176/.129 and a -8 wRC+
Braves - Adonis Garcia .197/.234/.311 and a 48 wRC+
Red Sox - Pablo Sandoval .214/.262/.393 and a 79 wRC+
Padres - Ryan Schimpf .120/.313/.300 and a 81 wRC+
Giants - Eduardo Nunez .300/.328/.350 and a 90 wRC+

Maikel Franco(Phillies) is hitting .164/.246/.344 and a 62 wRC+ but he's enough of a prospect I doubt they would give up on him yet. Likewise Anthony Rendon(nats) is hitting .237/.308/.271 and a 63 wRC+ but he's good enough the probably give him time. You could also look at Candelario as a 1B replacement. The Phillies in particular have issues at the corners with Franco and Tommy Joseph(.212/.250/.308 and a 52 wRC+).

Of those teams, the mets and Phillies don't really have the pitching to match up in a trade in terms of minor leaguers. Boston also has Devers in AA so I doubt they'd deal. SF has Christian Arroyo in AAA but in theory could move Tyler Beede. So realistically the two most likely teams to me seem like Atlanta and SD. Cal Quantrill is a little worse prospect ranking wise for SD but you could add a player or two. They also have Adrian Morejon and Anderson Espinoza. They don't really have a 3B of the future right now. Atlanta has all the pitching in the world. Assuming Swanson is their SS going forward and Ozzie Albies is there future 2B, they do have Kevin Maitan who's a huge prospect but just turned 17. Best case you're talking 3-4 years and he has yet to play state side. They also have Austin Riley in A+ who's a decent prospect but still 2-3 years away as well.

I'm thinking the Mets would be a match. The Cubs need pitching depth also. As far as next year goes Butler doesn't strike out as many as I would like but he has been dominating AAA. Mills is doing just as well and he is a sinker ball pitcher.

We know they will have 2 openings at least. They could just back fill for next year then 2019 they would have a new wave incoming with Clifton leading the way.

So I'm thinking that they should add depth when that wave hits and band aid next year. What they have to start thinking of is the hitting will start to get less cost effective thus they have to focus on cheaper rotation options.

beckdawg · Apr 22, 2017

CSF77 said:
I'm thinking the Mets would be a match. The Cubs need pitching depth also. As far as next year goes Butler doesn't strike out as many as I would like but he has been dominating AAA. Mills is doing just as well and he is a sinker ball pitcher.

We know they will have 2 openings at least. They could just back fill for next year then 2019 they would have a new wave incoming with Clifton leading the way.

So I'm thinking that they should add depth when that wave hits and band aid next year. What they have to start thinking of is the hitting will start to get less cost effective thus they have to focus on cheaper rotation options.

I agree the Mets in theory make sense but the problem is who do they give up? MLB.com has Candelario as the #91 prospect which is likely higher given some guys still show up in prospect list though they are in the majors(Glasnow, Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson and possibly others i'm missing). Their top 5 prospects are SS Amed Rosario(#3 overall), 1B Dominic Smith(#58), RHP Justin Dunn(NR 50 grade was 19th pick in 2016), LHP Thomas Szapucki(NR 50 grade was 2015 5th round pick) and OF Desmond Lindsay(NR 50 grade OF).

If you are trading Candelario who's MLB ready you have to get more value than he's worth because you're buying more "ifs" than sure things. Dunn isn't a sure thing. He's on the smaller side at 6'2 185 and Szapucki probably doesn't have big enough upside to warrant both him and dunn. So, you'd almost certainly need to find a 3rd team.

CSF77 · Apr 22, 2017

beckdawg said:
I agree the Mets in theory make sense but the problem is who do they give up? MLB.com has Candelario as the #91 prospect which is likely higher given some guys still show up in prospect list though they are in the majors(Glasnow, Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson and possibly others i'm missing). Their top 5 prospects are SS Amed Rosario(#3 overall), 1B Dominic Smith(#58), RHP Justin Dunn(NR 50 grade was 19th pick in 2016), LHP Thomas Szapucki(NR 50 grade was 2015 5th round pick) and OF Desmond Lindsay(NR 50 grade OF).

If you are trading Candelario who's MLB ready you have to get more value than he's worth because you're buying more "ifs" than sure things. Dunn isn't a sure thing. He's on the smaller side at 6'2 185 and Szapucki probably doesn't have big enough upside to warrant both him and dunn. So, you'd almost certainly need to find a 3rd team.

Max Fried | Rank: 100
Team: Mississippi Braves (AA) ETA: 2018
Position: LHP Age: 23 DOB: 01/18/1994
Bats: L Throws: L Height: 6' 4" Weight: 200 lb.
Drafted: 2012, 1st (7) - SD
Other Lists: Top 30 Atlanta Braves Prospects (#8)

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55
It's taken a while for the Braves to feel any benefits from this part of the December 2014 Justin Upton trade, but it's looking like the wait will have been worth it. Fried missed nearly two years recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned to Rome in 2016, started slowly, then looked like the future front-line starter people thought he'd be when he was the No. 7 pick of the 2012 Draft down the stretch, including some dominant performances as Rome won the South Atlantic League title.

Fried's fastball sat 93-94 mph, and he could reach back for 96-97 mph when he needed it, especially in the second half of the season. His curveball served as his true strikeout pitch, sometimes registering as a 65 or 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. His feel for his changeup got better as the year went on as well, giving him three average or better weapons at his disposal. As he threw more innings, his feel for the strike zone returned as well.

At the end of the season, the Braves feel Fried's pure stuff was good enough to get big league hitters out. The gloves will come off now, and he could start moving more quickly through the system, especially after seeing how well Fried dealt with the mental aspect of returning to the mound.

CSF77 · Apr 22, 2017

He was the guy I wanted the Cubs to draft in Almora's draft. He slid down to the Pads that year. Atl may match up with Candi. They have Adonis Garcia #13
3B B/T: R/R 5' 9"/205 Age: 32 closest prospect Austin Riley | Rank: 12 (Preseason: 13)
Team: Florida Fire Frogs (A Adv) not as well rated as Candi.

beckdawg · Apr 22, 2017

Yeah I figure atlanta matches up quite well. They supposedly wanted Szczur as well prior to opening day. I imagine you might be able to package the two for a better return. Maybe something like Szczur and Candelario(plus lessor parts) for Fried and one of Mike Soroka or Ian Anderson. Atlanta is pretty devoid of OF depth and what with Kemp and Markakis starting and Ronald Acuna(A+) and Cristian Pache(A) being their only OF in their top 15 someone like Mark Zagunis also makes sense. The two teams match up so well together you could expand the deal in many ways. And the cubs with Heyward, Schwarber and Almora in the majors and Jiminez, Happ, DJ Wilson and Eddy Martinez in the minors are set up well to trade from outfield depth.

Only thing I'm not sure about is if they like Candelario enough to trade for him and if they want to contend enough to trade

beckdawg · Apr 23, 2017

John Arguello @CubsDen
.@D_Mekkes7 out of the bullpen. 11 IP, no hits. 14 Ks. That's kinda good.

CSF77 · Apr 23, 2017

beckdawg said:
Yeah I figure atlanta matches up quite well. They supposedly wanted Szczur as well prior to opening day. I imagine you might be able to package the two for a better return. Maybe something like Szczur and Candelario(plus lessor parts) for Fried and one of Mike Soroka or Ian Anderson. Atlanta is pretty devoid of OF depth and what with Kemp and Markakis starting and Ronald Acuna(A+) and Cristian Pache(A) being their only OF in their top 15 someone like Mark Zagunis also makes sense. The two teams match up so well together you could expand the deal in many ways. And the cubs with Heyward, Schwarber and Almora in the majors and Jiminez, Happ, DJ Wilson and Eddy Martinez in the minors are set up well to trade from outfield depth.

Only thing I'm not sure about is if they like Candelario enough to trade for him and if they want to contend enough to trade

Fried is #3 on their lefties. They have 2 RHP ahead of him also. Crazy that they have 8 on the top 100. He is not even the top rated in AA for them. They can afford to deal him. Szczur would be a strong add in to push the deal through.

DanTown · Apr 23, 2017

CSF77 said:
I'm thinking the Mets would be a match. The Cubs need pitching depth also. As far as next year goes Butler doesn't strike out as many as I would like but he has been dominating AAA. Mills is doing just as well and he is a sinker ball pitcher.

We know they will have 2 openings at least. They could just back fill for next year then 2019 they would have a new wave incoming with Clifton leading the way.

So I'm thinking that they should add depth when that wave hits and band aid next year. What they have to start thinking of is the hitting will start to get less cost effective thus they have to focus on cheaper rotation options.

Butler has gone 4 starts and has given up 22 hits and 8 walks with only 11 Ks in 24 innings. That's so far from "dominating" I don't know what to say. Maybe he's a future MLB but he's also 26 and not striking out AAA hitters so I see nothing of note there.

CSF77 · Apr 23, 2017

DanTown said:
Butler has gone 4 starts and has given up 22 hits and 8 walks with only 11 Ks in 24 innings. That's so far from "dominating" I don't know what to say. Maybe he's a future MLB but he's also 26 and not striking out AAA hitters so I see nothing of note there.

His SO/BB are a concern. But I also look at his H/9 and he has kept it under a hit per inning. 3 BB per 9 is a real concern. The strike outs are only a concern if he is not able to get strike outs when needed. If he is just managing his starts and working economic outs to build his innings I really don't see a issue there.

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