Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

CSF77

CSF77

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Cease looking like a young Kerry Wood now.

7K in 3.2 IP 89 pitch count....yep very Woody like. I hope he gets more economical vs trying to punch out every one.
 

beckdawg

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CSF77 said:
Cease looking like a young Kerry Wood now.

7K in 3.2 IP 89 pitch count....yep very Woody like. I hope he gets more economical vs trying to punch out every one.
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Just looking into the numbers a bit, he had 56 strikes in 89 pitches. To put that into context, Butler tonight had 56 strikes in 94 pitches. Without better data it's hard to tell exactly what is going on but I'm wondering if his 2 pitch mix just isn't quite enough right now. That is to say his curve/fastball combo are obviously good(see K's) but I'm wondering if and when his change up comes along it will add enough of a mix where he isn't as predictable.
 
CSF77

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beckdawg said:
Just looking into the numbers a bit, he had 56 strikes in 89 pitches. To put that into context, Butler tonight had 56 strikes in 94 pitches. Without better data it's hard to tell exactly what is going on but I'm wondering if his 2 pitch mix just isn't quite enough right now. That is to say his curve/fastball combo are obviously good(see K's) but I'm wondering if and when his change up comes along it will add enough of a mix where he isn't as predictable.
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Most traditional RSP use a change as a 2nd offering vs lefties.

What will help him the most is having a 2 seem with a low spin rate to produce ground balls.

The 2 easy outs are pop ups and ground balls. Those are the highest % out with lite contact pitching. Statcast is making it easier to study this and is starting to take over for FIP
 
CSF77

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It also ties into control and command. Butler and Cease both had the same over all line but Butler got 2x the innings. Which means Buttler was using his strikes to get weak contact outs 13 times and 5 strike outs. Ceace of his 11 outs 7 were strike outs. Leaving 4 for the D.

Exact opposite approach and that pushes up the pitch count to work strike outs.

This normally will dictate if a guy will end up a starter or a closer. Both get strike outs. The real difference is if they can get 7 innings in 100 pitches. That dictates where they end up.

He needs to start learning how to get outs with out trying to do it himself.
 

beckdawg

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CSF77 said:
It also ties into control and command. Butler and Cease both had the same over all line but Butler got 2x the innings. Which means Buttler was using his strikes to get weak contact outs 13 times and 5 strike outs. Ceace of his 11 outs 7 were strike outs. Leaving 4 for the D.
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See this is where I'd like to see more data because it could also just mean that Cease couldn't put away a guy quick enough and he was fouling off pitches hence my comment about having another offering to mix things up.
 
CSF77

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beckdawg said:
See this is where I'd like to see more data because it could also just mean that Cease couldn't put away a guy quick enough and he was fouling off pitches hence my comment about having another offering to mix things up.
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Just speculating: 4 seem: flyball. Curve: knock out pitch. Could be getting flyball outs and occasional pop ups. We would have to get FB% to get a honest look. Add to it his HR/FB to see if he is giving up hard contact.

Statcast is new stuff so I doubt it would filter unless some locals were doing the slow motion film work.
 

beckdawg

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Justin Hancock who the cubs got for Szczur appears to be working out of Tenn.'s bullpen rather than starting for those who care.
 
CSF77

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I'm pretty sure in MB he will start to get adjusted. Seeing how the staff in Tenn are pretty much lite contact guys there has to be a process that they are stressing in development.

Add to it Arrieta and Butler are products of reworked major league pitchers that are going to lite contact. Even Feldman found success here with it.

I'm not sure going to a cut fastball is the right direction. It does provide easy outs but it costs a pitcher around 2 mph on their fastball over time. We are seeing this with Jake now. He is down from 94 to 92 which is a big deal now. It seems it works for guys like Randy Johnson who lost his 99 mph and had to goto it late career vs killing a weapon in his prime.
 
CSF77

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beckdawg said:
Justin Hancock who the cubs got for Szczur appears to be working out of Tenn.'s bullpen rather than starting for those who care.
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Their staff is pretty locked up. Hedges has evolved into the workhorse. Then Tsng, Clifton, Morrison and Underwood. All are avg between 5-6 innings per game. None are running up the SO numbers. So all seem to be working on getting deeper into games at this point of their development vs ringing guys up all day.

Underwood is really good until the 6th. That is where he is getting beat. Last game he gave up 2 runs in the 6th but that was the first time he got past that hump so that was progress.
 

beckdawg

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Jen-Ho Tseng is looking pretty solid in AA this year. After a very promising year as a 19 year old I thought he might work his way into a middle rotation starter. Since then his K rate hasn't really risen like I'd hoped but he certainly appears like he could be a decent #4 or 5 starter who doesn't walk people much.
 
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@MLBPipeline: Eloy Jimenez hits RBI 1B in 1st AB of '17 for @Pelicanbaseball & Eddy Martinez follows with 3-run HR. #Cubs Top 30: bit.ly/2l4lQB0 pic.twitter.com/85bvQldVS0

Cubs Future OFers

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beckdawg

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Cubs are still in the IFA penalty box but I did notice mlb.com put up their top 30 guys and the cubs are apparently rumored to be the front runners on the #30 guy SS Luis Verdugo. He's apparently mexican and the cubs have been quite good scouting there. Albertos was from the mexican leagues as was Isaac Paredes and Carlos Sepulveda both of whom are mlb.com's top 20 for the cubs.

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 40 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55
The top position prospect from Mexico, Verdugo is best known for his strong arm and defensive prowess in the middle of the diamond.

He's athletic with good instincts on both sides of the ball, but he is a below average runner right now. Verdugo is a contact hitter, shows a good bat path through the strike zone and puts the ball in play. However, the belief is that he could still improve on his overall hit tool and that he will once he enters a team's academy.

Verdugo has been praised for his solid defensive actions and footwork. He has quick hands and makes all of the plays. Scouts also like his makeup and maturity level.

Verdugo is trained by Diablos Rojos del Mexico in the Mexican League. The Cubs are the favorite to sign him.
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CSF77

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Oscar De La Cruz (Cubs' No. 5) put together his longest start of the season and led Class A Advanced Myrtle Beach to a 7-0 win over Lynchburg in Game 1 of a doubleheader. De La Cruz, who has given up just one earned run over his past 13 innings, gave up five hits in a seven-inning complete game, the first of his career. The right-hander only struck out one but didn't walk any as he fired 54 of his 71 pitches for strikes.
 
CSF77

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Dylan Cease: 1:1 2.23 ERA 32.1 IP 6.4 H/9 4.74 BB/9 13.93 SO/9
Oscar De La Cruz: 3:2 2.97 ERA 36.1 IP 9.67 H/9 1.98 BB/9 6.69 SO/9
Trevor Clifton: 3:1 2.37 ERA 38 IP 7.8 H/9 3.3 BB/9 8.29 SO/9
Jose Albertos: Not played
Thomas Hatch: 0:3 6.11 ERA 28 IP 9.64 H/9 5.78 BB/9 8.68 SO/9
Jose Paulino: 2:0 4.25 ERA 29.3 IP 9.12 H/9 3.65 BB/9 5.78 SO/9
Duane Underwood: 3:1 4.35 ERA 31 IP 8.4 H/9 2.6 BB/9 7.25 SO/9
 

JP Hochbaum

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What are the chances of Clifton being MLB ready next year and playing?
 
CSF77

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It depends on him being more efficient in his games. It it not about being able to punch guys out. He has to get 6 innings per game on a regular basis.

The system is for development and if you look at starters that are more advanced they have lower SO/9 and higher IP/game. The system is pressing efficiency.
 

TC in Mississippi

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CSF77 said:
It depends on him being more efficient in his games. It it not about being able to punch guys out. He has to get 6 innings per game on a regular basis.

The system is for development and if you look at starters that are more advanced they have lower SO/9 and higher IP/game. The system is pressing efficiency.
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Right but you're not going to get away with that forever. Nobody wants to see 5 Kyle Hendricks in a rotation. That's why Cease is exciting.
 
CSF77

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Of who they have the guy who seems the most advanced is Clifton. He is pushing 6 innings per with close to 1 K/ inning. Walks are passable. ERA is under 3.00.

If Cease starts to look like that with his stuff they will rush him. If he is pushing 3.2 IP with 7 k's and 89 pitches and he will have a long ride and be pushed into a closer role.

It is on him. He is really raw right now. His stuff is filthy just like Edwards stuff is. But to transition that into a MLB starter he needs to be able to generate easy outs. That comes from fastball command.
 
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