Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

beckdawg

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Cubs signed a cuban C Alexander Guerra for $300k. Sounds like a good buy low bet. Supposedly has good power and defense and was the starter for Cuba's junior national team in 2013 and 15. He seems to have fallen because he tried to leave cuba awhile back and didn't make it. He then got suspended for awhile and didn't play. I also think it might have something to do with the fact he is signing when most teams already blew their budget

Either way you can never have enough catchers in your system. Cubs have several good lower level guys now with Amaya and him as well as a few lessor known guys presently.
 

beckdawg

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From fangraph's prospect chat today with their prospect guy

12:27
Prospect hipster: Has Alzolay done enough to jump into your top 100?
12:28
Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. 93-95 with a plus slider.

Prospect hipster: Does Bote have a future as a big league utility guy?
12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure about that. I’d like my utility guy to be able to play multiple positions, Bote really isn’t good anywhere. He has power, though.

12:30
The Dweez: I gotta say I love your prospect coverage btw. Have you seen any of Wladamir Galindo, if so any ideas of grades for the hit/power tools? Thanks!
12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Has had issues with injury and strikeouts but has big raw power, he made more contact this year and looked better at third base than he did in 2016.
 

beckdawg

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Jake Stinnett has been looking really good since being moved back to the bullpen in 2017. He hasn't thrown a ton this year but he has 27 k's in 22.2 IP and 8 walks with 3 ER's and 15 hits. That comes out to a 10.72 K/9, a 3.17 BB/9, a 1.19 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. All but 3.1 IP was between the AFL(roughly AA) and AA itself. Will be interesting following him this coming season. Could be an interesting mid season addition. At 25 I doubt he needs much more seasoning especially with the fact his walk rate is pretty under control. Might be able to help out come june/july.
 

beckdawg

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New BA top 10 cubs is pretty interesting

1 - Aramis Ademan, SS
2 - Adbert Alzolay, P
3 - Jose Albertos, P
4 - Victor Caratini, C
5 - Alex Lange, P
6 - Oscar De La Cruz, P
7 - Brendon Little, P
8 - Thomas Hatch, P
9 - Jen-Ho Tseng, P
10 - Nelson Velazquez, OF

Most of it isn't that surprising but the amount of helium Ademan apparently has is surprising to me. Alzolay and Albertos both may be in consideration for top 100. I figured Ademan would move up given his performance but it is surprising they have him ahead of those two. Think he might potentially be top 75 prospect given this order. The other interesting thing is Nelson Velazquez at 10. He's a toolsy guy who's was considered pretty raw when they drafted him last year as a CF out of HS. He hit .236/.333/.536 in mesa with 8 HRs and 5 SB in 126 PAs with 11.9%/31.0% bb/9 rates. Obviously that k rate is going to need to come down but you can see the intrigue of his power speed combo. Prorated over 650 PAs that's 41 HR/26 SB. The listed him as the best power hitter in the cubs system as well.
 

CSF77

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BEST TOOLS

��Best Hitter for Average: Victor Caratini.
��Best Power Hitter: Nelson Velazquez.
��Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Mark Zagunis.
��Fastest Baserunner: D.J. Wilson.
��Best Athlete: D.J. Wilson.
��Best Fastball: Dillon Maples.
��Best Curveball: Alex Lange.
��Best Slider: Dillon Maples.
��Best Changeup: Jose Albertos.
��Best Control: Jen-Ho Tseng.
��Best Defensive Catcher: P.J. Higgins.
��Best Defensive INF: Luis Vazquez.
��Best INF Arm: Luis Vazquez.
��Best Defensive OF: D.J. Wilson.
��Best OF Arm: Eddy Martinez.

PROJECTED 2021 LINEUP

(Listed with 2021 season age)

��C Willson Contreras (29)
��1B Anthony Rizzo (31)
��2B Javier Baez (28)
��3B Kris Bryant (29)
��SS Addison Russell (27)
��LF Kyle Schwarber 28)
��CF Albert Almora (27)
��RF Ian Happ (26)
��SP Jose Quintana (32)
��SP Jon Lester (37)
��SP Kyle Hendricks (31)
��SP Adbert Alzolay (26)
��SP Mike Montgomery (31)
��CL Carl Edwards (29)


SYSTEM OVERVIEW

Strengths: The Cubs have binged on drafting and signing pitchers in recent years—they spent a pair of 2017 first-round picks on lefthander Brendon Little and righthander Alex Lange—thus turning what had long been an organizational weakness into the biggest strength of a thin system. The majority of those pitchers are still years away from Chicago, however. And some of the most talented pitchers have yet to log a full season of work in the minors.

Weaknesses: The Cubs haven't drafted a position player in the top four rounds in the past two drafts, and they traded away outfielder Eloy Jimenez, shortstops Isaac Paredes and Gleyber Torres and third baseman Jeimer Candelario in the past 18 months. Coupled with graduations, this leaves the thinnest group of Cubs minor league position players in years.
 

CSF77

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From What I'm taking of it Ademan got their attention. He has no tools that stand as the system best but he still got the top bill.

Alzolay pretty much deserved his ranking on performance and talent.

Albertos they just love his change up. He may crack the top 100 with a strong full season.

De La Cruz I tend to agree with him not as highly ranked. Too injury prone.

Lang and Little we need to see a full season to get a better opinion. To be honest I believe that Lange ends up the top ranked arm in the next rankings and makes it up to AA. Little I really believe they drafted him with MR in mind. He is too much like Miller. Miller started as a starter also.

Tseng is kinda a shocker but he is pretty much a sure bet to make it in the bigs. Too polished right now.
[video=youtube_share;eGrkA4PbZoU]https://youtu.be/eGrkA4PbZoU[/video]

Kinda shocked with Nelson Valazquez. Saw some video on him. He takes pitches so I see why they targeted him. Seems like he would run the count up every AB.
 

beckdawg

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Yeah I wanna see more over the winter on Valazquez. During the draft there was basically nothing on him because he was from a puerto rico HS I believe which didn't get as much coverage as a state side high schooler might. Literally the only thing I saw on him around the draft was he was a raw tools-y player. Specifically I'd like to hear more on how he profiles in CF. He more or less split time between LF and CF in mesa but i'm not entirely sure that's indicative of anything because mesa sorta becomes a hodge podge of college/hs players. Think Chris Singleton who's a college guy took more CF time. Regardless, if he's a legit CF and given his apparent speed wouldn't surprise me if he's at least average there he becomes a really intriguing player because CF's just don't have huge offensive upside most of the time. Given they chose to play him in LF rather than RF I do wonder if his arm might be a bit weak.

On Ademan here's the thing... he was supposed to be a glove first SS who they weren't entirely sure would hit according to scouting when he was signed as an IFA. So, when he goes out and hits .286/.365/.466 as an 18 year old in A- that catches a lot of eyes. When people talked about the lack of talent in the cubs system he was a name I would mention that I felt would eventually easily be a top 100 guy. But the fact he's apparently going to be there or very close to there this year surprises me. I was thinking maybe top 100 after next year and top 50 after the following. But if he's top 100 now he may be top 50 by the end of next year and top 25 after that. In other words, his ceiling may be higher than I thought. I'm not sure he's going to be a top 10 player. Probably doesn't have enough power but if their believing enough in his bat right now that's a really good sign because he's know as a good defender.
 

CSF77

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I think it has more to do with most of these guys being 50 grade players. Anyone could say one of them is #1 when the talent gap is minute.

So I see it as age and projectability. The 18 YO’s Have a chance to advance. The older guys most likely are what they are.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Yeah I wanna see more over the winter on Valazquez. During the draft there was basically nothing on him because he was from a puerto rico HS I believe which didn't get as much coverage as a state side high schooler might. Literally the only thing I saw on him around the draft was he was a raw tools-y player. Specifically I'd like to hear more on how he profiles in CF. He more or less split time between LF and CF in mesa but i'm not entirely sure that's indicative of anything because mesa sorta becomes a hodge podge of college/hs players. Think Chris Singleton who's a college guy took more CF time. Regardless, if he's a legit CF and given his apparent speed wouldn't surprise me if he's at least average there he becomes a really intriguing player because CF's just don't have huge offensive upside most of the time. Given they chose to play him in LF rather than RF I do wonder if his arm might be a bit weak.

On Ademan here's the thing... he was supposed to be a glove first SS who they weren't entirely sure would hit according to scouting when he was signed as an IFA. So, when he goes out and hits .286/.365/.466 as an 18 year old in A- that catches a lot of eyes. When people talked about the lack of talent in the cubs system he was a name I would mention that I felt would eventually easily be a top 100 guy. But the fact he's apparently going to be there or very close to there this year surprises me. I was thinking maybe top 100 after next year and top 50 after the following. But if he's top 100 now he may be top 50 by the end of next year and top 25 after that. In other words, his ceiling may be higher than I thought. I'm not sure he's going to be a top 10 player. Probably doesn't have enough power but if their believing enough in his bat right now that's a really good sign because he's know as a good defender.

the late John Arguello loved Ademan. Thought he had the ability to be something special. There are, however, issues with his swing that will have to be fixed even if he is producing in the low minors.
 

beckdawg

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I think it has more to do with most of these guys being 50 grade players. Anyone could say one of them is #1 when the talent gap is minute.

So I see it as age and projectability. The 18 YO’s Have a chance to advance. The older guys most likely are what they are.

Don't really agree with that. They are 50 grade players because most public scouting really doesn't have enough scouting on them. But I've heard numerous reports of someone like Albertos having 3 60 grade pitches. That's a top 10 prospect in terms of talent. I don't want to totally shit on the public scouting but often times they aren't much better than people like me who read the stat lines. You'll remember I was hyping up torres well before he was a top 10 prospect. Last year I was hyping up Paredes before they dealt him. That's not even tooting my own horn here because it's often not that difficult to spot who's going to get hyped. You just need to know what is normal expectations for the age/level a player is at.
 

DanTown

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It's rare that you see such disagreement in prospect ratings. Here is the BA top 10 with their MLB top 30 rank in ( )

1 - Aramis Ademan, SS (11)
2 - Adbert Alzolay, P (3)
3 - Jose Albertos, P (2)
4 - Victor Caratini, C (6)
5 - Alex Lange, P (4)
6 - Oscar De La Cruz, P (1)
7 - Brendon Little, P (5)
8 - Thomas Hatch, P (7)
9 - Jen-Ho Tseng, P (13)
10 - Nelson Velazquez, OF (NR)

The Cubs have a good farm system for that of a WS type contending team where they have a lot of depth and potential to have cheap players playing roles they are qualified for. They have five or six starting pitchers that if they were #4/#5 on a team trying to win a WS I wouldn't be upset about. They have a lot of hitters who project as bottom of the order/solid depth type guys.

To me, the key to this being a decade long window is the ability to replace guys in three-four-five years when they price themselves out in arbitration. Addison Russell and Javy Baez are two classic examples of this: I love both those guys as young, toolsy IF but I don't want to pay those guys high eight figures in to their 30s. This is where I think a guy like Ademan helps. Let's say he's your Russell replacement, that means by age he could be doing this

Age 19 - 2018 - South Bend (A), maybe Myrtyle Beach (A+)
Age 20 - 2019 - Myrtle Beach, maybe West Tenn (AA)
Age 21 - 2020 - West Tenn (AA), maybe Iowa (AAA)
Age 22 - 2021 - Iowa/backup
Age 23 - 2022 - Starting SS

To me, that's why I believe in paying Harper because you give him and Bryant and potentially Contreras your long-term contracts as the middle of your lineup, high WAR players 2022+. Then you need an entire new wave of prospects to come up and be low ceiling/high floor contributors.
 

beckdawg

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It's rare that you see such disagreement in prospect ratings. Here is the BA top 10 with their MLB top 30 rank in ( )

1 - Aramis Ademan, SS (11)
2 - Adbert Alzolay, P (3)
3 - Jose Albertos, P (2)
4 - Victor Caratini, C (6)
5 - Alex Lange, P (4)
6 - Oscar De La Cruz, P (1)
7 - Brendon Little, P (5)
8 - Thomas Hatch, P (7)
9 - Jen-Ho Tseng, P (13)
10 - Nelson Velazquez, OF (NR)

The Cubs have a good farm system for that of a WS type contending team where they have a lot of depth and potential to have cheap players playing roles they are qualified for. They have five or six starting pitchers that if they were #4/#5 on a team trying to win a WS I wouldn't be upset about. They have a lot of hitters who project as bottom of the order/solid depth type guys.

To me, the key to this being a decade long window is the ability to replace guys in three-four-five years when they price themselves out in arbitration. Addison Russell and Javy Baez are two classic examples of this: I love both those guys as young, toolsy IF but I don't want to pay those guys high eight figures in to their 30s. This is where I think a guy like Ademan helps. Let's say he's your Russell replacement, that means by age he could be doing this

Age 19 - 2018 - South Bend (A), maybe Myrtyle Beach (A+)
Age 20 - 2019 - Myrtle Beach, maybe West Tenn (AA)
Age 21 - 2020 - West Tenn (AA), maybe Iowa (AAA)
Age 22 - 2021 - Iowa/backup
Age 23 - 2022 - Starting SS

To me, that's why I believe in paying Harper because you give him and Bryant and potentially Contreras your long-term contracts as the middle of your lineup, high WAR players 2022+. Then you need an entire new wave of prospects to come up and be low ceiling/high floor contributors.

mlb.com hasn't updated their rankings from the midseason rankings yet. So it's not that surprising.
 

DanTown

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mlb.com hasn't updated their rankings from the midseason rankings yet. So it's not that surprising.

Yeah, you normally see guys go from 11 to 1 and from outside the top 30 to the top 10 in a three month span all the time.
 

beckdawg

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Yeah, you normally see guys go from 11 to 1 and from outside the top 30 to the top 10 in a three month span all the time.

Your sarcasm aside, Velazquez was a 5th round pick this year. Of fucking course he's not going to be ranked in the top 30 less than a month after being drafted. As for Ademan, he wasn't ranked at the 2016 midseason either. He went from unranked to 11th or likely slightly lower given the cubs dealt a few pieces for Q. Either way he went unranked into their top 15. Albertos went from 10th at 2016 midseason to #2 coming into the season if memory serves. So yes it does happen all the time.
 

DanTown

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Your sarcasm aside, Velazquez was a 5th round pick this year. Of fucking course he's not going to be ranked in the top 30 less than a month after being drafted. As for Ademan, he wasn't ranked at the 2016 midseason either. He went from unranked to 11th or likely slightly lower given the cubs dealt a few pieces for Q. Either way he went unranked into their top 15. Albertos went from 10th at 2016 midseason to #2 coming into the season if memory serves. So yes it does happen all the time.

Albertos was never top four, let alone two, this preseason with Eloy, Happ, Cease, and Almora all ahead of him. And it's not that big a jump when guys leave the system but in the case of Ademan and Velazquez, they passed active prospects in the system, not just moving up the ladder because of graduations/trades.

I'm basically saying a guy going from behind eight or nine guys at the midseason (according to one site) and then being ahead of all those guys in one half of a season when the guy doesn't do anything amazing (but Ademan had a very good showing in rookie ball) is a strange jump to make for him. I obviously think he's a future starting SS but the jump he got from BA seems weird to me.

And it's also weird that a guy with a .236/.333/.536 slash with a high K rate after being drafted in round 5 (even above slot) makes the top 10 for BA. To me, they're undervaluing a lot of the arms the Cubs have if they think he's a top 10 guy right now.
 

beckdawg

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Albertos was never top four, let alone two, this preseason with Eloy, Happ, Cease, and Almora all ahead of him. And it's not that big a jump when guys leave the system but in the case of Ademan and Velazquez, they passed active prospects in the system, not just moving up the ladder because of graduations/trades.

I'm basically saying a guy going from behind eight or nine guys at the midseason (according to one site) and then being ahead of all those guys in one half of a season when the guy doesn't do anything amazing (but Ademan had a very good showing in rookie ball) is a strange jump to make for him. I obviously think he's a future starting SS but the jump he got from BA seems weird to me.

And it's also weird that a guy with a .236/.333/.536 slash with a high K rate after being drafted in round 5 (even above slot) makes the top 10 for BA. To me, they're undervaluing a lot of the arms the Cubs have if they think he's a top 10 guy right now.

On Ademan, i mean its unusual but not unprecedented. As I said, the thought prior to this year was he was a good glove SS who wouldn't hit amazingly. But when you go out at 18 and hit .286/.365/.466 in A- people start to reevaluate. I think he's where he's at because they already knew he was a good glove but now believe more in his bat. And let's not forget here that the cubs gave him $2 mil when they signed him. It's not like he was some $300k cheap signing that sprouted up. In a normal IFA class(which 2015 wasn't because of all the cubans) he's probably a top 5 or top 10 signing. Eloy if memory serves only got $3 mil. So, clearly the cubs viewed him as a very good talent.

On Velazquez, as I said he went to HS in puerto rico which I believe isn't as heavily scouted as the US. So he was a bit of an unknown. Around the draft there was very little info on him publicly. Maybe teams had more but we don't know. So, the fact he was a 5th round pick really shouldn't surprise you. As for where he is now, Sure he hit .236/.333/.536 in mesa but do you know what Eloy hit in mesa? .227/.268/.367 over 164 PAs. Velazquez had a .300 ISO while Jimenez had a .140 ISO. Now granted Eloy was 17 and Velazquez was 18 and frankly a .300 ISO isn't sustainable but we know what kind of power Jimenez has. And most view him as a LF only. Velazquez played 72.1 innings in CF, 133.0 in LF and 9.0 in RF.

Now I don't k now for certain that he'll be a long term CF. Like I said earlier I want to see what scouting says on him because frankly there's not much out there about his defense. But the guy stole 5 bases in 32 games which tells me he's likely got good speed(also read that on the draft scouting). But if he does stick do you realize how absurd that kind of power is out of a CF? I'm going to throw another comparison at you. Look at Lewis Brinson who was another raw HS CF prospect.

At 18 in rookie league he hit .283/.345/.523 with 7.9%/27.9% bb/k rates and a wRC+ of 122. Velazquez also at 18 hit .236/.333/.536 with 11.9%/31.0% bb/k rates and a wRC+ of 129. Brinson was the 29th pick in the 2012 draft. Brinson had more PAs so his 14 SB look superior but at the rate Velazquez was stealing over similar PAs he would have had 11 so that's pretty close. And while .283 vs .236 looks like a hammering, Brinson had a .377 BABIP compared to .286 for Velazquez. Velazquez has a slightly bigger issue with k rate but was quite a bit better in terms of his walk rate and power.

If you want to quibble that Brinson was better at the same age I'm not really interested in arguing the point. However, what I will point out is the two in any argument are relatively similar. And as of mlb.com's midseason rankings Brinson was the #12 prospect in all of baseball. So while it's easy to say "oh he's just a 5th round pick," context is important. League average among CF in ISO last year was .164. So you could literally cut his ISO in half and it would still be league average for what you'd expect out of a CF and the kid is 18. He's going to get bigger and stronger. Brinson was given 60 grade power by mlb.com and at the same age Velazquez has shown more power.

Velazquez obviously has work to do with regards to his K rate but ask yourself this... have this cubs front office missed on any bat? For example between their draft picks and the IFA signings who are the worst guys they gotten? The only semi-questionable IFA that comes to mind is Eddy Martinez who hasn't been terrible just not worth what he signed for thus far. But basically everyone else who's been given big money has hit and in the cases of Torres/Ademan/Jimenez they've hit well enough to turn in to apparent big time prospects. In terms of drafted guys in the first 10 round I can only really name Krist who's a C. Maybe Darryl Wilson hasn't quite lived up to expectations but scouts still like him quite a bit. But you contrast that with the numerous guys they have who've been better than people thought like Schwarber and to a lessor extent Bryant.

So while I get that people are going to feel like Velazquez is a "WHO?," I don't think them putting him at #10 is unwarranted. He ran a faster 60 yard than the #1 pick Royce Lewis who mlb.com had as 70 grade on speed. When you put that together with the kind of power he showed in mesa and an apparent ability to play CF there's just not many players who can do that. I mean if you conservatively say he's got 25 HR power that is something only 7 MLB CF did. And only 3 of those 7 stole more than 10 bases(McCutchen, Trout, Charlie Blackmon).

He's a player cubs fans should be excited over. And if you're talking about player ceilings their may not be a cub prospect with a higher ceiling. And if we're being real here who deserves to be ahead of him? There's really only 3 names I see on the cubs top 30 that even warrant consideration. Maples I could see but he's basically already in the majors and a reliever. So leaving him off isn't a big deal to me. Keegan Thompson and Cory Abbott I think you could make a case for but I doubt either has as much upside as Velazquez. And while I love Michael Rucker from a stats point of view scouting on him doesn't seem as keen.
 

DanTown

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On Ademan, i mean its unusual but not unprecedented. As I said, the thought prior to this year was he was a good glove SS who wouldn't hit amazingly. But when you go out at 18 and hit .286/.365/.466 in A- people start to reevaluate. I think he's where he's at because they already knew he was a good glove but now believe more in his bat. And let's not forget here that the cubs gave him $2 mil when they signed him. It's not like he was some $300k cheap signing that sprouted up. In a normal IFA class(which 2015 wasn't because of all the cubans) he's probably a top 5 or top 10 signing. Eloy if memory serves only got $3 mil. So, clearly the cubs viewed him as a very good talent.

On Velazquez, as I said he went to HS in puerto rico which I believe isn't as heavily scouted as the US. So he was a bit of an unknown. Around the draft there was very little info on him publicly. Maybe teams had more but we don't know. So, the fact he was a 5th round pick really shouldn't surprise you. As for where he is now, Sure he hit .236/.333/.536 in mesa but do you know what Eloy hit in mesa? .227/.268/.367 over 164 PAs. Velazquez had a .300 ISO while Jimenez had a .140 ISO. Now granted Eloy was 17 and Velazquez was 18 and frankly a .300 ISO isn't sustainable but we know what kind of power Jimenez has. And most view him as a LF only. Velazquez played 72.1 innings in CF, 133.0 in LF and 9.0 in RF.

Now I don't k now for certain that he'll be a long term CF. Like I said earlier I want to see what scouting says on him because frankly there's not much out there about his defense. But the guy stole 5 bases in 32 games which tells me he's likely got good speed(also read that on the draft scouting). But if he does stick do you realize how absurd that kind of power is out of a CF? I'm going to throw another comparison at you. Look at Lewis Brinson who was another raw HS CF prospect.

At 18 in rookie league he hit .283/.345/.523 with 7.9%/27.9% bb/k rates and a wRC+ of 122. Velazquez also at 18 hit .236/.333/.536 with 11.9%/31.0% bb/k rates and a wRC+ of 129. Brinson was the 29th pick in the 2012 draft. Brinson had more PAs so his 14 SB look superior but at the rate Velazquez was stealing over similar PAs he would have had 11 so that's pretty close. And while .283 vs .236 looks like a hammering, Brinson had a .377 BABIP compared to .286 for Velazquez. Velazquez has a slightly bigger issue with k rate but was quite a bit better in terms of his walk rate and power.

If you want to quibble that Brinson was better at the same age I'm not really interested in arguing the point. However, what I will point out is the two in any argument are relatively similar. And as of mlb.com's midseason rankings Brinson was the #12 prospect in all of baseball. So while it's easy to say "oh he's just a 5th round pick," context is important. League average among CF in ISO last year was .164. So you could literally cut his ISO in half and it would still be league average for what you'd expect out of a CF and the kid is 18. He's going to get bigger and stronger. Brinson was given 60 grade power by mlb.com and at the same age Velazquez has shown more power.

Velazquez obviously has work to do with regards to his K rate but ask yourself this... have this cubs front office missed on any bat? For example between their draft picks and the IFA signings who are the worst guys they gotten? The only semi-questionable IFA that comes to mind is Eddy Martinez who hasn't been terrible just not worth what he signed for thus far. But basically everyone else who's been given big money has hit and in the cases of Torres/Ademan/Jimenez they've hit well enough to turn in to apparent big time prospects. In terms of drafted guys in the first 10 round I can only really name Krist who's a C. Maybe Darryl Wilson hasn't quite lived up to expectations but scouts still like him quite a bit. But you contrast that with the numerous guys they have who've been better than people thought like Schwarber and to a lessor extent Bryant.

So while I get that people are going to feel like Velazquez is a "WHO?," I don't think them putting him at #10 is unwarranted. He ran a faster 60 yard than the #1 pick Royce Lewis who mlb.com had as 70 grade on speed. When you put that together with the kind of power he showed in mesa and an apparent ability to play CF there's just not many players who can do that. I mean if you conservatively say he's got 25 HR power that is something only 7 MLB CF did. And only 3 of those 7 stole more than 10 bases(McCutchen, Trout, Charlie Blackmon).

He's a player cubs fans should be excited over. And if you're talking about player ceilings their may not be a cub prospect with a higher ceiling. And if we're being real here who deserves to be ahead of him? There's really only 3 names I see on the cubs top 30 that even warrant consideration. Maples I could see but he's basically already in the majors and a reliever. So leaving him off isn't a big deal to me. Keegan Thompson and Cory Abbott I think you could make a case for but I doubt either has as much upside as Velazquez. And while I love Michael Rucker from a stats point of view scouting on him doesn't seem as keen.

I don't disagree that Velazquez is a top high potential prospect, I disagree that you could make that assessment and put him in the top 10 right now. While I'm impressed by everything I've ever read on him as a prospect, I'd prefer to see him do it more to put him that high and ahead of other guys like say Zagunis, who's posted solid numbers everywhere he's ever hit. And again, it's not so much that I disagree with his rank (I'd have him in that 12-16 range personally based on things I've read about him and higher than some guys the Cubs drafted ahead of him in the same draft), it's that BA has him 10 and MLB didn't even have him 30. My initial point was the difference between the two rankings, even though from different time periods, in such a short time.

And the Cubs have missed on bats all the time. Soler and Hannemann are two that never lived up to their expectations, Dewees wasn't anything special, DJ Wilson hasn't shown anything (obviously early on him), they've overspent on a few guys that didn't work out of the Caribbean (EJM, Estiwal) but the Dominican is basically not about batting even .400, it's just signing as many quality guys you can and hoping they stick. I would just disagree that the Cubs "have never missed on a bat".
 

beckdawg

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I don't disagree that Velazquez is a top high potential prospect, I disagree that you could make that assessment and put him in the top 10 right now. While I'm impressed by everything I've ever read on him as a prospect, I'd prefer to see him do it more to put him that high and ahead of other guys like say Zagunis, who's posted solid numbers everywhere he's ever hit. And again, it's not so much that I disagree with his rank (I'd have him in that 12-16 range personally based on things I've read about him and higher than some guys the Cubs drafted ahead of him in the same draft), it's that BA has him 10 and MLB didn't even have him 30. My initial point was the difference between the two rankings, even though from different time periods, in such a short time.

And the Cubs have missed on bats all the time. Soler and Hannemann are two that never lived up to their expectations, Dewees wasn't anything special, DJ Wilson hasn't shown anything (obviously early on him), they've overspent on a few guys that didn't work out of the Caribbean (EJM, Estiwal) but the Dominican is basically not about batting even .400, it's just signing as many quality guys you can and hoping they stick. I would just disagree that the Cubs "have never missed on a bat".

On the first part, I think you're really underselling how much mlb.com will change their rankings this winter. No one had even heard of Paredes headed into this past winter and MLB put him in the top 15 to start last year along with Ademan. And I will also say that BA is always a group that is higher on tools. Zagunis isn't really going to appeal to them because while he's safe and alright he's not ever going to be a star. If you go back and look at how BA ranks they almost always put heavy emphasis on C, SS and CF. You very rarely see LF only prospects or 1B make their top 100 and those who do tend to be absurdly good bats.

As for the second point, Hannemann made the majors as a 3rd round pick. I certainly wouldn't say he was "special" but the guy hit .265/.324/.404 in Iowa this year and is a strong defender. I wouldn't call that "missing." Like wise, Soler made the majors and has shown some promise though that appears more in the past. He was what a top 25 prospect when he made the majors. Again, I wouldn't call that a miss. Dewees has hit .275/.332/.404 in the minors. He's not likely to be a star but that's a good hitter and almost certainly makes the majors. None of those I would call "missing" because if you get a IFA or draft pick to the majors you're way ahead of average. On Wilson, he had a rough first half this year but scouts like him still and was really good upon returning to A ball. Eddy Martinez as I mentioned I think has been a disappointment but he's not been brutally bad and there's still some upside. He can't seem to hit before June for whatever reason but has been really good in the second half of the past 2 years.

There's perhaps a few guys in the 2015 IFA class who are iffy. But if you hit on 30% of IFA's you're generally doing pretty good and I think the cubs are well within that. The 2013 IFA class from the cubs was Eloy/Torres/Tseng/Erling Moreno/Wladimir Galindo. The first 3 are obvious hits. Moreno is less known but mlb.com's midseason list had him at #26 and Galindo at #25. 2015 was Eddy Martinez/Ademan/Jonathan Sierra/Yonathan Perlaza/Miguel Amaya/Kwon as the bigger names. Kwon hasn't looked very good but he's only 19. Martinez as mentioned above has been meh but looks on track to still make the majors. Ademan looks fantastic. Sierra hit .259/.332/.368 in mesa which is respectable enough for an 18 year old. Perlaza looked a lot better in the DSL in 2016 than he did in Mesa. But think at 18 it's far to early to call him a bust. Amaya was pretty good in mesa in 2016 but looked like A- was a bit much for his bat in 2017. That was sorta the book on him though that he was really advanced defensively as a C but not as much with the bat yet. The less known names from the 2015 class though are also interesting. Fernando Kelli hit .320/.437/.443 in the DSL as a CF and stole 58 bases in 67 games. Orian Nunez also looked really good in the DSL hitting .305/.379/.416 with 22 SB in 61 games.

Regardless here, my point is that the cubs are inarguably one of the best teams at scouting hitting. Now sure a guy like Soler hasn't reached his ceiling but he still made the majors. I don't think you should undersell that. Soler's issues were never that he couldn't hit. They were his defense and his ability to stay on the field. And in the case of Velazquez, the fact you're seeing that kind of power out of an 18 year old with the ability to walk already is a strong indication for me. When I read he was raw in the draft reports I assumed both his bb and k rates would be bad. But the performance he put out is just a guy who needs to work on avoiding K's and I think he'll be better than people think.
 

CSF77

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Another slow week has dropped David Bote (.333/.395/.536) out of the top 10 in batting average and on-base percentage but he is still hanging on to 8th in slugging. He did knock in 3 runs in his 2 games, going 2-for-10.

He hasn't managed to get his bat going with consistency but Charcer Burks (.242/.338/.339) did reach base 8 times (4 hits, 4 walks) over 4 games. He scored 4 times and drove in a pair.

Jason Vosler (.216/.333/.351) still hasn't found his home run stroke, hitting just two in his first 21 games, but he is beginning to reach base more consistently. He drew 3 walks and collected 3 hits in his 3 appearances last week.

He appeared in just one game last week but Ian Rice (.297/.422/.432) did double and score during the contest.

I'm going to copy and paste the same update I included in the last installment: Another week, another 4 inning, 1 run performance by Alec Mills (1-3, 3.91). It is a result he has now replicated in 4 of his last 5 starts. He is throwing strikes (6 walks), punching out his fair share (20 in 23 innings). Mills isn't overpowering, but his fastball-changeup combo generates ground balls and enough swings-and-misses. His lack of a good breaking ball limits his upside as a major leaguer, but don't be shocked if Mills gets an opportunity as a fill in starter or middle reliever at some point in 2018.

Jake Stinnett (0-0, 2.08) stayed on a roll, striking out 2 in his lone inning of work. He has now punched out 12 in 8.2 IP.

Pedro Araujo was less successful. He gave up 2 runs (1 earned) in 2 innings. He did strike out 3 but walked 1 and gave up a hit as well.

Adbert Alzolay did not appear in a game last week.

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2017/11/arizona-fall-league-report-week-5/
 

CSF77

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Stinnett is honestly becoming intriguing right now. I'm not 100% in on him because of his walk rates in the minors. 3.38 per 9. But in the pen it has gone to 3.18. SO/9 career 7.59 in pen: 10.75. So 12.6 in the AFL is not a aberration. To say the least he is becoming interesting as long as he can get his BB/9 around 2.
 

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