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    Default Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

    Time for a new thread and updated convos.

    Discuss Cubs prospects and the farm system here.

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    Speaking of Cubs youngsters and winter leagues, Arismendy Alcantara is killing it in the DWL right now: .325/.372/.500 through 12 games, which would give him the 5th highest OPS in the league if he had a few more games under his belt and qualified

    Junior Lake, by the way (.275/.419/.402) is 8th. It’s interesting: with an enormous walk rate and 15 stolen bases (no caught stealing) but just two homers, it’s like Lake is playing in the league as an entirely different kind of player. The same size, by the way, is getting not-so-small (at least for the walks), as he’s now well over 100 plate appearances.
    From bleacher naton

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    Bill James projection for Kris Bryant in 2015: 152 games, 33 homers, 105 runs, 75 RBIs, 18 stolen bases and an .864 OPS. Yes please.

    Javier Baez? 214 strikeouts with a .242 average, .754 OPS, 32 home runs and 23 stolen bases.

    I'll take that too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TC in Mississippi View Post
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    Bill James projection for Kris Bryant in 2015: 152 games, 33 homers, 105 runs, 75 RBIs, 18 stolen bases and an .864 OPS. Yes please.

    Javier Baez? 214 strikeouts with a .242 average, .754 OPS, 32 home runs and 23 stolen bases.

    I'll take that too.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TC in Mississippi View Post
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    Bill James projection for Kris Bryant in 2015: 152 games, 33 homers, 105 runs, 75 RBIs, 18 stolen bases and an .864 OPS. Yes please.

    Javier Baez? 214 strikeouts with a .242 average, .754 OPS, 32 home runs and 23 stolen bases.

    I'll take that too.
    i love projections

    i love playing the game on paper


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    It's worked better than on the field in recent years, that's for sure.

    And I can afford the games on paper!

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    Does anyone check these projections against the actual results when the season's over? I'm curious how accurate they tend to be...

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    I stopped at the 154 games. That part won't happen.

    Baez I believe with strike out over 200 times. That I believe. Rest is wishful.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TC in Mississippi View Post
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    Bill James projection for Kris Bryant in 2015: 152 games, 33 homers, 105 runs, 75 RBIs, 18 stolen bases and an .864 OPS. Yes please.

    Javier Baez? 214 strikeouts with a .242 average, .754 OPS, 32 home runs and 23 stolen bases.

    I'll take that too.
    I don't see how that Baez projection is possible unless his BABIP is like .370. Assuming you play 162 games you're probably looking at 700 PAs or 600 ABs give or take. If James is saying he's gonna hit .242 that means he's going to get 145 hits out of the 386 possible chances where he doesn't K.

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    Basically: 600 AB 200 of them SO. 400 AB left.

    norm BABIP is .296. So out of 400 AB that is 118 hits.

    118 hits in 600 is a .196 BA.

    Until he gets his SO's down he is doomed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    I stopped at the 154 games. That part won't happen.

    Baez I believe with strike out over 200 times. That I believe. Rest is wishful.
    Javier will be playing Winter Ball in Puerto Rico, and John Mallee will be there working with him in the 4-5 games a week that he will be playing. Let's see what he can do to help his mechanics. We may be surprised.

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    Sometimes I wish it was the older days and ball player can become ball players.
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    James' projections are always high but closer than you would think to accurate when it's all said and done. I do think the BA for Baez is a bit wacky with the SO numbers though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Basically: 600 AB 200 of them SO. 400 AB left.

    norm BABIP is .296. So out of 400 AB that is 118 hits.

    118 hits in 600 is a .196 BA.

    Until he gets his SO's down he is doomed.
    One thing I will bet the farm on: He will not have both a .196 BA AND 600 AB. One of those will have to give.

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    I believe he will end up in AAA at some point next year. I feel that he has too much adjustment going on that 1 winterball season will fix. He did not show the ability to shorten his swing at 2 strikes and he is going to need to learn how then spend at least a month adapting to it and the Cubs are not the right spot to do it. He should be going through the adjustments in Iowa where the games matter less.

    I believe they traded for LaStella just for this reason.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    I believe he will end up in AAA at some point next year. I feel that he has too much adjustment going on that 1 winterball season will fix. He did not show the ability to shorten his swing at 2 strikes and he is going to need to learn how then spend at least a month adapting to it and the Cubs are not the right spot to do it. He should be going through the adjustments in Iowa where the games matter less.

    I believe they traded for LaStella just for this reason.
    I hope he starts making those adjustments in winter ball. With the prospects we brought up, and the supposed crowded infield, I don't want to see laStella as a starter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TL1961 View Post
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    I hope he starts making those adjustments in winter ball. With the prospects we brought up, and the supposed crowded infield, I don't want to see laStella as a starter.
    LaStella is not that bad IMO. He should push a .350+ OBA which is very needed out of a LH bat on this team. He is a solid back up plan and as a starter he plugs into the top of the line up fine. This team's main short coming was low contact rates. That is a area they are going to have to focus on. He was traded for for this reason.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    LaStella is not that bad IMO. He should push a .350+ OBA which is very needed out of a LH bat on this team. He is a solid back up plan and as a starter he plugs into the top of the line up fine. This team's main short coming was low contact rates. That is a area they are going to have to focus on. He was traded for for this reason.
    They didnt bring him up to throw him back down so quickly. LaStella is not a guy you really want starting. No power, no speed. He can walk and thats about it. He would have to keep a .280 or above average to be worth much. He is about to turn 26 years old, so it isnt like he has much growth left in him.
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    Carrie Muskat ‏@CarrieMuskat Dec 5

    Theo says @javy23baez will play 4-5 times a week, 2B and SS, in Puerto Rico, and hitting coach Mallee will be there to work with him. #Cubs





    This year began with people wondering how long the Cubs could keep Javier Baez down at Triple-A Iowa. It ended with Cubs fans and the Chicago media wondering how you could hand him a big-league job in spring training.

    That’s how much perceptions changed after Baez struck out 95 times during his first 229 plate appearances in The Show.

    But the reality is the Cubs still expect Baez to be their Opening Day second baseman in 2015. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein made that clear during Tuesday’s postmortem on Clark Street.

    “Javy is very likely to be given the opportunity to show he can make those adjustments at the big-league level,” Epstein said. “We believe he will. He’s got some of the best raw ingredients to work with in all of Major League Baseball.

    [MORE CUBS: Could Manny Ramirez become next hitting coach?]

    “But his approach and some mechanical things need to be tweaked. He’s well aware of that (and) he’s excited to make those changes without losing his identity as an aggressive, feisty hitter in the box.

    “He’s someone that — for the long-term — you’re going to want to bet on.”

    No doubt, Baez has world-class bat speed and the supreme self-confidence summed up by the Major League Baseball logo tattooed onto the back of his neck. The Cubs named him their Minor League Player of the Year in 2013 after a 37-homer, 111-RBI season at advanced Class-A Daytona and Double-A Tennessee. Baseball America had ranked him as the industry’s No. 7 overall prospect before his promotion from Iowa in early August.

    Baez blasted three homers during that first three-game series at Coors Field, including the game-winning shot in the 12th inning to beat the Colorado Rockies in his Aug. 5 debut. He had six homers the rest of the way, but zero after Sept. 13. He finished the audition hitting .169 with a .551 OPS.

    [MORE CUBS: The Year in Cubs Quotes]

    “Javy is extraordinarily talented and also very raw at the same time,” Epstein said. “He came up as a 21-year-old and learned an awful lot this year. On one hand, how talented he is and how some of those things translate right away to the big-league level. And on the other hand, quite a few adjustments that he’ll have to make and just how good major-league pitching is.

    “(There are) some adjustments that he’s going to have to process and make this winter. Some players can make those adjustments in-season. More often than not, they occur over the winter. That’s one of the reasons why we called him up when we did.

    “It doesn’t always happen overnight either. He has to look no farther than Anthony Rizzo, who came up at about the same age and really, really struggled and had to go back to the minor leagues and make those adjustments.”

    The Cubs don’t want to send Baez back to Des Moines, but they also can’t live with the kid striking out almost 42 percent of the time.

    Baez has crushed Cactus League pitching the last two years, so another highlight-reel show in Arizona wouldn’t surprise anyone. He’s also impressed the organization with improved focus and more attention to detail defensively. That maturation is another reason why the Cubs are comfortable betting big on him.

    [MORE CUBS: Wait till next year? Time for rebuilding Cubs to 'step it up']

    But it also speaks to a larger point about the rebuild and how the Cubs will construct next year’s roster. They’ll hope to catch lightning in a bottle, but won’t be surprised when Baez, Jorge Soler and Kris Bryant struggle. That’s why Epstein can talk about winning the National League Central while at the same time tempering expectations.

    “We are competing to win and we’re also developing young players,” Epstein said. “We’re not going to sell out to win in 2015. We’re not going to bail on all our young players the second that they show that there are still more adjustments to be made.

    “But at the same time, we have some expectations for them — that they will continue to grind and try to speed up the learning process as much as possible. That’s very much, I think, the story of the 2015 Cubs.”

    http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/theo-...vier-baez-2015
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilenceS View Post
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    They didnt bring him up to throw him back down so quickly. LaStella is not a guy you really want starting. No power, no speed. He can walk and thats about it. He would have to keep a .280 or above average to be worth much. He is about to turn 26 years old, so it isnt like he has much growth left in him.
    I am gonna disagree on this one. I think he can hit. His minor league stats say he can, and to come up in a half of a year with the Braves and bat .250'ish suggests to me that he can improve on that as he started off well in the first few months, but tapered off in the end and didn't play much the last month.

    Put him in Wrigley half of the time where he can see the ball good off of the ivy, and we might see a little better. BTW, he is also a .280 plus hitter in the daytime.

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