Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hudson catches some helium in rankings midseason. His walk rate is a bit high at 3.97 and his ERA is fucking terrible at 5.86 but he's finally striking guys out(8.45). He's also got a ground ball rate over 50%. That's a winning formula. Hell, look at chatwood. He's at 52.5 % groundball and 8.82/7.44 k/bb per 9 and still manages a 3.31/4.26 ERA/FIP

I'm wondering if the cubs have told Lange to just throw fastball change up to work on it. His K rate is down but his walk rate is also a lot better. He's got a 26:8 k:bb ratio which breaks down to 6.5 k/9 and 2 bb/9. This is a guy who had 10.44 k/9 and 3.68 bb/9 in an ultra competitive SEC. If they have taken away his power curve in an attempt to have him develop his change up more that would explain his k rate. I've read the cubs will often do that with pitching prospects. You take away their best pitch and force them to work on their others and live with the results. IDK for sure that's what's happening here but if he's got hat sort of walk rate with a sorta ok 4.25 ERA using only 2 pitches and not his best then I like where he's headed.

AAA
Tseng 23 1-4 7.01 ERA (44 SO)
Underwood 23 2-4 3.63 ERA
Mills 26 1-4 4.35 ERA
Alozay 23 2-3 4.70 ERA
Roth 28 1-2 3.03 ERA
Farrell 26 0-2 4.82 ERA

AA
Hatch 23 4-2 3.06 ERA
Robinson 24 1-1 3.83 ERA
DeLaCruz 23 4-5 5.83 ERA (43 SO)
Rucker 24 4-2 4.10 ERA (43 SO)
Clifton 23 3-3 3.89 ERA

A+
Miller 22 3-4 4.22 ERA
Thompson 23 1-3 4.14 ERA
Swarmer 24 4-2 2.75 ERA (46 SO)
Lange 22 1-2 4.25 ERA
Hudson 21 3-3 5.23 ERA
Paulino 23 0-6 9.85 ERA

A
Thomas 22 2.4 2.88 ERA
Abbott 22 2-1 2.72 ERA (44 SO)
Assad 20 3-1 2.14 ERA
Uelmen 22 2-4 5.34 ERA
Little 21 2-3 5.59 ERA

I had a much more lengthy post ready to go but I felt it was too wordy so I'm going to try and keep this concise. Start paying attention to Michael Rucker. He is legit. He's better than rankings places will ever give him. The reason is they rely purely on "stuff" to rank players. And to an extent that's how teams view players too. But there's never value in guys who throw 97. They cost an arm and a leg because of that stuff.

What can be had for value is deception. Rucker from scouting I've read is deceptive. IMO deceptiveness is more important than pure stuff. Rucker's stuff isn't terrible. He has 2 55 grade pitches(91-94 fastball and a curve), a 50 grade change up and 55 control according to MLB.com. On any ordinary pitcher if you saw that sort of grouping you'd likely be thinking of something like an 8 k/9 at AA and maybe a 3.50-4 ERA. Just as a point of comparison here, Hendricks was at 7.2 k/9 with a 1.85 bb/9 and 1.85/2.36 ERA/FIP. Tseng last year 8.27/2.39 with 2.99/3.28. Rucker is sitting today at 9.29/3.02 with a 4.10/4.32.

Now you might look at those numbers and think "why am I hyping Rucker up?" The K/9 is great. The bb/9 is kind of average and the ERA/FIP isn't amazing. Well there's a couple reasons. First last year his bb/9 was 1.8 over 106.0 innings between A/A+. So, I would contend that he's probably due for that 3 rate to come down at least to the mid 2's. The second reason is that ERA looks bad but it literally is one horrid inning he had on 4/20. He gave up 6 runs in a single inning. Looking at the play log worst case he should have been dinged for 3. You exclude that very flukey inning and he's give up 13 runs over 41 innings for a 2.85 ERA. There's also the fact his strand rate is at 65.7%. I assume it's likely similar to the majors. Last year the strand rate average was 72.6%. So between that and a likely improvement in his walk rate his ERA should fall.

And I mean I get it that it's often a lazy way to go to just point to similar superstars. But to give you an idea of what a out of no where star looked like at 24, Kluber in AA at 24 threw 122.2 IP for a 9.98/2.93 k/bb per 9 and 3.45/2.94 ERA/FIP before being traded to cleveland. Mike Clevinger is probably also another fairly interesting comp. He at age 24 threw 158.0 IP in AA for 8.3 k/9 and a 2.3 bb/9 to go with a 2.73 ERA. Even if Rucker doesn't end up being as good as Kluber, getting into that Clevinger range isn't absurd. Both Kluber and Clevinger were 4th round picks. Rucker was an 11th rounder. And while that may sound like a vast difference, talent falls off pretty hard after the first 3 rounds unless you're signing guys to over slot deals to keep them out of college. But like Rucker, both Kluber and Clevinger were college arms.

I like that he has shown what he has at Tenn. After seeing Tseng then Clifton then Underwood get stalled there it bodes well. But showing the current state. Really none of the starters in the system are really outstanding. Swarmer is kinda but he is a big goofy looking kid and I really don't know if he will progress in the higher ranks.

CSF77 said:

I like that he has shown what he has at Tenn. After seeing Tseng then Clifton then Underwood get stalled there it bodes well. But showing the current state. Really none of the starters in the system are really outstanding. Swarmer is kinda but he is a big goofy looking kid and I really don't know if he will progress in the higher ranks.

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Clifton broke out in A+. He never produced great results in AA. His k rate went from 9.76 in his break out year to roughly 7 in AA. Tseng broke out in AA but even then his k rate was only 8.27. He was relying on his command at 2.39 bb/9. His K rate is improved some this season in AAA but that appears to be potentially just a sample size thing. If you group both of his two AAA stints he's look at 7.6 k/9 and 2.7 bb/9 which again is pretty similar to his AA numbers. That's not to say he can't be a useful pitcher but at 8 k/9 you're going to have a ceiling unless you're excellent in some other way to induce more outs than a typical pitcher does. For example Hendricks is great at weaker contact. Underwood never tapped into his stuff. Probably still hasn't though his numbers are good. Thing that hurt him was he walked too many batters. That seems to have changed and he looks a lot more interesting this year.

None of those guys strike me as pitchers who fit a similar mold to Rucker. Swarmer might. Problem I have with him is he's a year behind Rucker who's already at least a year behind where you typically want starters in terms of age progression. So while I like the stats he's posting like Rucker I wonder how much of it is just older guys beating up on young guys. That's the reason AA tends to separate good players from bad. The age band narrows a lot. There's 19 year olds in A+. Not a ton of them but more than half a dozen across the various A+ leagues. Most of the good players are 20. So, when you're 23/24 you have a good bit of age on the better players. The difference in progression from 19-21 year olds vs 21-23 year olds is pretty big. Looking at baseball ref there's no one under 21 in the southern league(AA). In the eastern league(AA) it's vlady and Bo Bichette as only two under 21. Bo is 20. In the Texas league(AA) it's Keibert Ruiz and Tatis Jr. both at 19 but no one else is under 21. In terms of 21 year olds, there's only 12 of them across the 3 AA leagues. Of those there's only 2 i don't immediately recognize from prospect lists.

So, when you're talking about AA hitters you're really talking about 22 and up players unless you're fairly elite prospects. And 22 year olds are much more mature physically than 19/20 year olds. I'm willing to keep an open mind on Swarmer but I want to see him consistently do it vs AA and above competition before I get too hyped.

I was thinking that they may stall guys at their current levels this year. There is no clear path to promotion yet.

You figure Roth and Ferrell they can toss if they feel Hatch or DeLaCruz needs to face more advanced hitting.

But at Tenn in general I see their priorities lying with DeLaCruz then Hatch. Rucker has put him self into a situation to be a part of their rotation like Robinson has but they are performance vs talent based so they have to keep proving that they deserve to be where they are. Unlike Clifton who sucked last year and was just given another shot. Morrison on the other hand got pushed into the pen after a poor year. Again is is based off of talent. It gives room for error.

That is why I believe this is the end of the road for Tseng. Talent wise he is fringe anyways and if he is sporting a 7 ERA he may end up overseas vs lesser talent

CSF77 said:

I was thinking that they may stall guys at their current levels this year. There is no clear path to promotion yet.

You figure Roth and Ferrell they can toss if they feel Hatch or DeLaCruz needs to face more advanced hitting.

But at Tenn in general I see their priorities lying with DeLaCruz then Hatch. Rucker has put him self into a situation to be a part of their rotation like Robinson has but they are performance vs talent based so they have to keep proving that they deserve to be where they are. Unlike Clifton who sucked last year and was just given another shot. Morrison on the other hand got pushed into the pen after a poor year. Again is is based off of talent. It gives room for error.

That is why I believe this is the end of the road for Tseng. Talent wise he is fringe anyways and if he is sporting a 7 ERA he may end up overseas vs lesser talent

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Well thing to remember about the minors is you don't explicitly have to have only 5 man rotations. Piggy backing starts is a common trend. It's especially good if you want to keep high inning totals off guys. You can go in there let 2 guys each throw like 85 or so pitches and maybe use a closer if needed. And unless one of the two guys just gets brutalized you're more or less giving 2 starts in one game. You may not want to do that at AAA but at AA and below I think it's some what fine.

beckdawg said:

Well thing to remember about the minors is you don't explicitly have to have only 5 man rotations. Piggy backing starts is a common trend. It's especially good if you want to keep high inning totals off guys. You can go in there let 2 guys each throw like 85 or so pitches and maybe use a closer if needed. And unless one of the two guys just gets brutalized you're more or less giving 2 starts in one game. You may not want to do that at AAA but at AA and below I think it's some what fine.

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They were running 6 at MB but 5 at Tenn and higher. Iowa is used for emergency so you have seen 6 there. Roth is a DL case ATM.

I'm seeing Hatch and De La Cruz pushed to Iowa. Clifton is showing enough right now that he is not considered a bust any more. Robinson is kinda unsung. 8 BB and 42 SO's is damn good control of the zone but I think he just lacks command with his 59 Hits in 47 IP. It is tale tell when you see a high H/IP and a low BB/IP he throws strikes so his control is there but those strikes are hittable so he lacks command of his pitches which leads to harder contact rates.

So with age issues going in Robinson I believe flames out.

Clifton 34 hits in 43 IP 18 BB and 33 SO so the SO's are a tad low but that H/9 rate is really standing out right now. no HR's given up so he is keeping the ball down so it makes me wonder if he has gone to a 2 seam over a 4 seam this year.

Rucker has 6 HR's given up. So he is getting up in the zone. I need more time with his because his basic numbers have been quite good.

Hatch's numbers are very MOR right now. I see him as a innings eater myself.

I think they need to start grooming Underwood for trade bait.

He bounced back last night with a win vs R.R. 6 IP 1 ER after getting blown up for 6 runs vs Ohama.

But looking at his over all body of work. 31-29 3.68 ERA in 498.2 IP logged in the minors. 456 Hits 188 BB/380 SO

I think he is right there now. Given a legit opportunity to hook up with a team in need of a rotation spot he should end up a solid rotation option.

He is a toss in but a legit one. If I'm looking to sell anyone it is him going into July.

MLB pushed a trash article pushing close prospects. Of course said Alozay has had a "few" good starts which is making him a prime call up.

Ok.

4/20: 6 IP 1 ER (one good)
4/25: 4 IP 3 ER (one bad)
4/30: 7 IP 0 ER (two good)
5/5: 4.2 IP 3 ER (two Bad)
5/14: 4.2 IP 5 ER (three bad)
5/19: 4.1 IP 4 ER (four bad)

ya I almost didn't want to go there but talk about having horse blinders on as a reporter. It is like he looks at a teams top prospect and puts out a puff piece on him and moves to the next guy. But ignores Underwood's superior production.

Underwood:
4 starts giving up 0 runs.
1 start giving up 1 run
1 start giving up 2 runs
a 5 ip 4 run given up game.

Omaha has his number though: 2 starts vs them: 7.2 IP: 10 ER given up. He needs to figure how to quell them.

first game he came out of the pen. Guessing they didn't know which direction with him this year but he pretty much has taken off.

I mean you don't have to trade underwood. If the right trade is there sure but his stuff plays up out of a bullpen even better. Keep in mind it seems like they will likely part ways from Monty at some point and Butler isn't exactly a sure thing as that long reliever role in the bullpen. Given the last few years of pitching drought we're not accustomed to having depth. But there's a case to be made the best way to break young starters in is to start them in the bullpen in the majors. That way they get acclimated to the MLB life as opposed to minors and there's not as much pressure to be "the guy" on day one.

In other news Rollie Lacy had another good start. His season stats are now a 2.82 ERA over 38.1 IP with a 1.18 whip and a 41/11 k/bb ratio. That breaks down to a 9.63 k/9 and a 2.58 bb/9. If there's room in MB wouldn't be shocked to see him called up soon. He's 22 so he's not super old for A but 22 would be better in A+.

beckdawg said:

I mean you don't have to trade underwood. If the right trade is there sure but his stuff plays up out of a bullpen even better. Keep in mind it seems like they will likely part ways from Monty at some point and Butler isn't exactly a sure thing as that long reliever role in the bullpen. Given the last few years of pitching drought we're not accustomed to having depth. But there's a case to be made the best way to break young starters in is to start them in the bullpen in the majors. That way they get acclimated to the MLB life as opposed to minors and there's not as much pressure to be "the guy" on day one.

In other news Rollie Lacy had another good start. His season stats are now a 2.82 ERA over 38.1 IP with a 1.18 whip and a 41/11 k/bb ratio. That breaks down to a 9.63 k/9 and a 2.58 bb/9. If there's room in MB wouldn't be shocked to see him called up soon. He's 22 so he's not super old for A but 22 would be better in A+.

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I was honestly thinking using Underwood to bolster the pen.. Underwood is the type of guy that would be a strong option for a bad team honestly where the pressure to win now wont hamper his development.

If I had to target 1 thing with the Cubs it is a prime set up for Morrow. Now I like Cishek slot. But they can't depend on him solely.

Cishek: 1.71 ERA 1.14 WHIP
Duensing 0.61 ERA 1.23 ERA
Strop: 1.35 ERA 0.85 WHIP

Edwards: 3.27 ERA 1.27 WHIP
Wilson 3.44 ERA 1.58 WHIP

Montgomery: 5.33 ERA 1.46 WHIP

last spot in rotation.

So I do see 1 spot in long relief available. But the 2 guys that you want to come in in high pressure spots really suck. And Montgomery has been hot trash.

Alzolay I would push to the pen. He is a 2 pitch pitcher and in shorter stints you can max out his talent like Edwards. But Underwood is a starter with a starters arsenal. He would be a strong candidate to a bad team looking for a controllable starter option for a short term sale.

Shoot SDP. Ideal spot and Jed has worked there so not really a reach in a partner.

Hand you are not getting unless you really start to add in legit talent with Underwood.

but
Craig Stammen: not over priced and could argue this one.
Kerby Yates. Another guy that could stabilize the pen.
Phil Maton: (Walk rate kinda scary)

That is just 1 team.

Shoot Tyson Ross is making a come back this year there.

While I get the tendency to look with hyper focus on guys who are immediately good, I think it's important the team stops buying other people's relievers. With relatively few exceptions you don't draft relievers. That is to say, by in larger MLB relievers are starters who aren't good enough to start at the MLB level. I'd honestly rather they give Underwood a shot to pitch in the bullpen rather than deal him for a middling bullpen arm. His stuff already plays there. He can touch 97 as a starter and if you aren't using him to go several innings, seeing him operate closer to that range more regularly is more than likely. His curve also works for getting out of jams as a ground ball generator.

Now I'm not saying they have to keep him in the pen forever. But look at the value Edwards currently has there. It's not hard to envision Underwood fitting into a Strop like role over time.

beckdawg said:

While I get the tendency to look with hyper focus on guys who are immediately good, I think it's important the team stops buying other people's relievers. With relatively few exceptions you don't draft relievers. That is to say, by in larger MLB relievers are starters who aren't good enough to start at the MLB level. I'd honestly rather they give Underwood a shot to pitch in the bullpen rather than deal him for a middling bullpen arm. His stuff already plays there. He can touch 97 as a starter and if you aren't using him to go several innings, seeing him operate closer to that range more regularly is more than likely. His curve also works for getting out of jams as a ground ball generator.

Now I'm not saying they have to keep him in the pen forever. But look at the value Edwards currently has there. It's not hard to envision Underwood fitting into a Strop like role over time.

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maybe. I was honestly thinking trading for Ross and go 6 man for the rest of the season starting in Aug. Ross is on a 1 year 1.7 mil deal (aprox) He bolsters the pen depth with Chattwood in the post season. At that point they convert Alozay into the guy you suggest just because his 2 pitches are both plus.

Pads basically get a young controllable for a injury rehab case. And they could still sign Ross.

Cubs really don't lose anything. Undwood put himself back into a strong sell position this year after dropping off previous. He is really not MLB experienced enough to impact a play off race like a proven vet like Ross. And it allows Alozay to get his feet wet in a pen role.

Which I believe suits him better.

I just really don't think Underwood is a pen arm honestly. Too many pitches. Owns a MLB quality cutter. He may end up a really solid arm given the opportunity.

Justin Hancock has done great so far...
6 G 9 IP 10 Ks 1.93 ERA 1.07 WHIP

Randy Rosario looks good to..
He could be Wilson replacement from Left side

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chibears55 said:

Justin Hancock has done great so far...
6 G 9 IP 10 Ks 1.93 ERA 1.07 WHIP

Randy Rosario looks good to..
He could be Wilson replacement from Left side

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They are not bad at all and make decent filler types.

But when you think of high leverage guys you really start looking at guys like Alozay. 2 plus pitches and struggling with a 3rd. Really doesn’t utilize a cutter. Basically a plus fastball with movement and 1 breaking pitch. Which is a good make up for a strike out late inning guy. I think he throws harder than Edwards but Edwards has a higher spin rate on his fastball.

But guys like you posted they are BP arms in the minors which means never made it up to the higher ranks as a starter. If they are doing good on the major league level then you play them but you really owe them no loyalty.

Gotta say I'm really impressed with the cubs pitching in the minors. There's all the names we've talked about but Cory Abbott has quietly been a fantastic second round pick. Abbott like Rucker has a deceptive delivery so i think this is an area they have started to attack in terms of drafting. But he's over 10 k/9 this year and under 3 walks per 9.

beckdawg said:

Gotta say I'm really impressed with the cubs pitching in the minors. There's all the names we've talked about but Cory Abbott has quietly been a fantastic second round pick. Abbott like Rucker has a deceptive delivery so i think this is an area they have started to attack in terms of drafting. But he's over 10 k/9 this year and under 3 walks per 9.

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From MLB:

Hitters don't see the ball well against Abbott, who has a deceptive delivery and generates swings and misses without a true plus pitch. His best offering is his improved cutter, which sits in the upper 80s. He added velocity to his four-seam fastball last year, pitching at 90-93 mph, and also has a decent curveball and a fringy changeup.

I think Rucker is a good comp honestly. I kinda want to see him vs hitters above A ball before saying much on him . Stuff wise it is not dominate but he hides well. So more experienced hitting would be a better tell tale.

CSF77 said:

From MLB:

Hitters don't see the ball well against Abbott, who has a deceptive delivery and generates swings and misses without a true plus pitch. His best offering is his improved cutter, which sits in the upper 80s. He added velocity to his four-seam fastball last year, pitching at 90-93 mph, and also has a decent curveball and a fringy changeup.

I think Rucker is a good comp honestly. I kinda want to see him vs hitters above A ball before saying much on him . Stuff wise it is not dominate but he hides well. So more experienced hitting would be a better tell tale.

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Abbott is probably better tool wise than Rucker. That's they reason why he's a 2nd round pick rather than an 11th. But between those two and Mekkes who also is a deceptive guy as a reliever it seems to be something they are prioritizing as mentioned. And honestly I'm down for it. I think it's an underrated skill.