Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

beckdawg

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It does matter because not only do YOU believe de la Cruz is better but you believe that other people (i.e people who do rankings) will agree with you. I don't care to debate the first part (it's an opinion that I can understand but do not agree with) but I disagree with the second part due to how others talk about both guys who are not you or me.

I literally cited an example of someone who does rankings. But to be perfectly blunt, I'm tired of talking about this because clearly you have an axe to grind with it. As I said before, I didn't bring up Cease. Someone else did. All I said with regard to him is his body type is a worry and that players who have TJS before they even reach professional baseball are worrisome. Whether or not Cease is "better" really isn't the point. The question is whether or not he'll remain healthy and/or remain a starter. If he gets hurt or ends up in the bullpen then the discussion is moot.
 

JP Hochbaum

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I have very little problem with you scouting young guys based on their numbers, etc but you need to either watch guys play or read guys who watch them play and not just rely on numbers. You cannot scout talent from behind a computer. I'm not trying to comment on anything you've said about a player specifically; I just think you tend to rely solely on numbers to judge how players will or will not work out. The general consensus among anyone who's ever watched both Cease and de La Cruz pitch, everyone would argue that Cease has a much higher ceiling due to the natural ability to throw with velocity + movement as well as the projectable skills he has. Results are a matter of NOW where as scouting is WHAT WILL/COULD BE and those are different things.

I notice you like to take discussions on stats, something objective, and change it to something subjective (either scouting reports or opinions about a poster here).

And to be fair BeckDawgs doesn't just rely on numbers, he had a serious addiction to Alcantara, and by the numbers he was pretty horrible the last two years at any level.

Sorry to jump into this personal spat, but I can't stand when people take stats discussions and turn them into more personal ones in order to win some brownie points.
 

CSF77

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I notice you like to take discussions on stats, something objective, and change it to something subjective (either scouting reports or opinions about a poster here).

And to be fair BeckDawgs doesn't just rely on numbers, he had a serious addiction to Alcantara, and by the numbers he was pretty horrible the last two years at any level.

Sorry to jump into this personal spat, but I can't stand when people take stats discussions and turn them into more personal ones in order to win some brownie points.

Almost sounded like Beene would not stop harassing Theo over how he got taken in losing Russell. So Theo tossed him a carrot in Alcantara.
 

Diehardfan

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I was just looking over the Cub's pitching this morning and suddenly realized that the entire staff consists of nothing but players that were trades, FA's or rule 5 pickups. Not a single drafted pitcher...ok, I get that Theo went after position players but to literally paste together a staff this strong is pretty impressive.
 

chibears55

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I was just looking over the Cub's pitching this morning and suddenly realized that the entire staff consists of nothing but players that were trades, FA's or rule 5 pickups. Not a single drafted pitcher...ok, I get that Theo went after position players but to literally paste together a staff this strong is pretty impressive.
That was his plan...

Draft hitters, pay or trade for pitching...

Though he did draft a lot of pitchers late..
Haven't looked them up to see if their the ones he drafted, but noticing quite a few are having good success lately.

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk
 

beckdawg

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I was just looking over the Cub's pitching this morning and suddenly realized that the entire staff consists of nothing but players that were trades, FA's or rule 5 pickups. Not a single drafted pitcher...ok, I get that Theo went after position players but to literally paste together a staff this strong is pretty impressive.

It is pretty impressive. The thing with pitching is it's rarely a short term fix. We have seen with Schwarber and Bryant that if you draft a college hitter they can literally be in the majors in 1-2 years. While that can happen with pitching it's harder. Often times you'll end up drafting HS arms and the simple math of things is that most guys are 22 or older by the time the reach the majors. That's 5 years for a high school arm. College arms in the draft tend to either go super early(top 5 picks) or they lack real upside. For example, Aaron Nola was a college pick(#7 overall) and while he's a decent looking pitcher, he's more of a #2/3 than a #1. If we go back and look at college arms since theo's been here it looks like this out of 1st rounders

2012
4 - Gausman, Kevin
5 - Zimmer, Kyle
8 - Appel, Mark
9 - Heaney, Andrew
19 - Wacha, Michael
20 - Stratton, Chris
22 - Stroman, Marcus
31 - Johnson, Brian
37 - Light, Pat
42 - Bard, Luke
43 - Johnson, Pierce
46 - Butler, Eddie

2013
1 - Appel, Mark
3 - Gray, Jonathan
15 - Shipley, Braden
19 - Gonzales, Marco
20 - Crawford, Jonathon
23 - Gonzalez, Alex
29 - Stanek, Ryne
31 - Hursh, Jason
34 - Manaea, Sean
36 - Blair, Aaron
38 - Lorenzen, Michael
39 - Knebel, Corey

2014
3 - Rodon, Carlos
7 - Nola, Aaron
8 - Freeland, Kyle
9 - Hoffman, Jeff
12 - Medeiros, Kodi
14 - Beede, Tyler
15 - Newcomb, Sean
16 - Toussaint, Touki
17 - Finnegan, Brandon
18 - Fedde, Erick
19 - Howard, Nick
27 - Weaver, Luke

2015
4 - Tate, Dillon
6 - Jay, Tyler
8 - Fulmer, Carson
16 - Kaprielian, James
18 - Bickford, Phil
24 - Buehler, Walker
29 - Harris, Jon
35 - Funkhouser, Kyle
40 - Kirby, Nathan

As you can see none of these guys are that established yet. Wacha probably been the best thus far from 2012. Nola has been decent. But a lot of these guys are still 4+ ERA's if they have even made the majors which about half haven't. Building up via high school arms takes both time and a lot of risk. AA and AAA are pretty spotty for pitching from the cubs but A+ and below they have a number of interesting guys.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Pitching is so hard to predict development. Injuries play a huge part and a lot of the kids that get by on nothing but great stuff in high school never develop secondary pitches or struggle with command in even teh low minors. College pitching is easier to project but injuries still play a part and a lot of college stars end up being BOR guys or pen arms. I questioned Theo's wisdom on this early on but came around pretty quickly. There is no way, especially looking at those lists, the Cubs brass could have built a team this good, this fast by drafting pitching high. The one guy you could have argued for that the Cubs could have drafted is Jonathan Gray who has a FIP in the mid 3's pitching in hitter friendly Colorado but even given his success I'm not sure where this team would be without Kris Bryant. Even if Gray becomes a true TOR guy, which I think he well might, Bryant was the better pick.
 

TC in Mississippi

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I hadn't realized it but Jose Paulino, who has been dominant in low A South Bend and in A- Eugene before that, is rule 5 eligible after this year. You would think that they will have to put him on the 40 man roster because I can't imagine him not being drafted.
 

beckdawg

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I hadn't realized it but Jose Paulino, who has been dominant in low A South Bend and in A- Eugene before that, is rule 5 eligible after this year. You would think that they will have to put him on the 40 man roster because I can't imagine him not being drafted.

Eh... hard to say. The problem is while yes he's been great, is a MLB team really going to be able to roster him for an entire year when he just got to south bend? He does have the lefty thing going for him but he would still seem to be super raw to throw to MLB hitting. To use Hector Rondon as a recent huge success story from rule 5, he was basically hovering between AA and AAA at the time they drafted him.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Eh... hard to say. The problem is while yes he's been great, is a MLB team really going to be able to roster him for an entire year when he just got to south bend? He does have the lefty thing going for him but he would still seem to be super raw to throw to MLB hitting. To use Hector Rondon as a recent huge success story from rule 5, he was basically hovering between AA and AAA at the time they drafted him.

It's a tough decision. John Arguello at Cub's Den think that they have to protect him and that he could be playing in Myrtle Beach right now and that his stuff could play as a pen arm in MLB soon after. A lefty that projects as high as a #3 is pretty difficult to let go of. If he performs well at MB next year, with maybe a quick call up as a LOOGY, then start at AAA in 2018 I could see them hanging on to him.
 

DanTown

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Eh... hard to say. The problem is while yes he's been great, is a MLB team really going to be able to roster him for an entire year when he just got to south bend? He does have the lefty thing going for him but he would still seem to be super raw to throw to MLB hitting. To use Hector Rondon as a recent huge success story from rule 5, he was basically hovering between AA and AAA at the time they drafted him.

There are so many teams that are essentially "tanking" that I can't imagine a lefty with any upside not getting picked by some team like Atlanta, Oakland, or the Padres for example. I have no doubt that Paulino would struggle in the MLB next year but if you're the Braves, why not keep him as a mop up guy for April? If he's god awful, you go another way and send him back.

Plus, it's a way to cheaply fill out the 25 man roster.

I think the Cubs would definitely trade him before they left him unprotected.
 

DanTown

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I notice you like to take discussions on stats, something objective, and change it to something subjective (either scouting reports or opinions about a poster here).

And to be fair BeckDawgs doesn't just rely on numbers, he had a serious addiction to Alcantara, and by the numbers he was pretty horrible the last two years at any level.

Sorry to jump into this personal spat, but I can't stand when people take stats discussions and turn them into more personal ones in order to win some brownie points.

Evaluating future MLB talent is way more than evaluating stats. Tons of guys with great numbers failed and tons of guys with terrible numbers have had success in the MLB. When you say guy A > guy B in terms of prospect rank/ability, that is a subjective statement. If you want to say guy A has been better statistically than guy B, now you're having an objective debate.
 

beckdawg

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De La Cruz was dominant again last night. Think he might be ready for A+ honestly but seeing as there's only like 2-3 weeks left in the season I don't know that they will promote him. He might see some time in the AFL though. Anyways he threw 5 no hit innings with 1 walk and 6 k's 76 pitches.
 

beckdawg

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It will be interesting to watch Dakota Mekkes as he progresses through the cubs system. Normally a 10th round pick who's a reliever wouldn't merit much of a second look but the guy had a rather absurd k/9 in the big 10(a tad over 15 k/9). And thus far he's been pretty much as advertised for the cubs with a 13 k's in 9.1 IP with a 2.89 ERA(plus another 6 in 3 innings at rookie level mesa). Typically speaking, most relievers aren't really worth talking about especially in A-. The reason is essentially if you're a reliever at that level you're chances are lower making the big leagues as they tend to have more flaws than starters which is why they are relieving and often times starters in the minors will end up relievers with better stuff.

All that being said though, I find him interesting because he's not a one inning guy. He's made 5 appearances in those 9.1 innings so he's bordering on 6 outs per outing. And given the prices placed on Chapman and Miller, it's some what plausible that he was under valued. I want to see how the cubs approach him though. I could see him potentially being a higher strikeout version of Tyler Clippard when he was with the Nats.
 

CSF77

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It will be interesting to watch Dakota Mekkes as he progresses through the cubs system. Normally a 10th round pick who's a reliever wouldn't merit much of a second look but the guy had a rather absurd k/9 in the big 10(a tad over 15 k/9). And thus far he's been pretty much as advertised for the cubs with a 13 k's in 9.1 IP with a 2.89 ERA(plus another 6 in 3 innings at rookie level mesa). Typically speaking, most relievers aren't really worth talking about especially in A-. The reason is essentially if you're a reliever at that level you're chances are lower making the big leagues as they tend to have more flaws than starters which is why they are relieving and often times starters in the minors will end up relievers with better stuff.

All that being said though, I find him interesting because he's not a one inning guy. He's made 5 appearances in those 9.1 innings so he's bordering on 6 outs per outing. And given the prices placed on Chapman and Miller, it's some what plausible that he was under valued. I want to see how the cubs approach him though. I could see him potentially being a higher strikeout version of Tyler Clippard when he was with the Nats.

The nice part of starting at lower levels is it builds up arm strength and endurance early on.
 

beckdawg

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Dylan Cease pitched well(mostly) last night. 3.2 IP 77 pitches, 0 hits 0 ER 3 BB, 8 K's. Not the most efficient usage of pitches ever but 8 k's in 14 batters faced is not terrible.

Meanwhile, De La Cruz was roughed up a little bit. 3 IP, 8 hits, 6 ER, 1 walk, 4 k's. Gave up 2 doubles, and a triple. Probably didn't have his best stuff but does seem like the BABIP monster got him a bit given that 6 of the 9 base runners he faced scored.
 

beckdawg

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Not sure this is an all that important note but it's nice to see that there's still a lot of talent in the system albeit in a ball.

The Eugene Emeralds won AGAIN last night, which is 15 wins in a row, a new Northwest League record.
 

beckdawg

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Preston Morrison picked up a Midwest League Post-Season All Star nod. He's not really a prospect in the sense of someone you'll hear about in trade deals most likely. With that being said, he's probably largely undervalued in a similar way to how Hendricks was. Like Hendricks, Morrison was an 8th round pick. He features a similar sinker main pitch to Hendricks in the upper 80's low 90's. Like Hendricks he's got pretty good control though at similar ages, Hendricks had a better walk rate usually below 2 while thus far Morrison has 2.1 per 9 bb rate over 139.1 innings.

Given where Hendricks has put himself this year ERA wise I don't particularly like comparing people to him because if we're being honest, Hendricks is probably a rare case. That being said, the cubs clearly seem to be playing the soft contact game with pitching and Hendricks is kind of the face of that given he's the first one to really have success with that unless you count Arrieta though he also has ridiculously good pitches when he's going right.

Morrison, Ryan Williams and various others they've taken the past few years are guys who fit this mold. They are really interesting for a couple reasons. The first is obviously if they are half as good as Hendricks has turned out to be they are very capable back of the rotation types. But given they were all college seniors, they are going to progress through the system quickly. Williams if he hadn't gotten hurt would probably be knocking on the door right now. Morrison is dominating A+ and could probably be promoted if it wasn't this late in the year. If they turn out to be effective at the MLB level, you could potentially slot both Williams and Morrison in as your #4/5 starters after 2017 if you had to though obviously you'd prefer to have a little more assurance. That makes the possibility of paying Arrieta or a like talent pitcher more likely since you're effectively paying Lackey and Hammel $25 mil this year vs the $1 mil or so two rookies would cost.

Either way, it makes for some interesting options over the next couple of seasons.
 

beckdawg

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Cease and De La Cruz both started last night

Cease
4 IP, 1 hit 1 ER 2 BB 7 K's 78 pitches 45 for strikes

De La Cruz
5 IP, 5 hit 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K's, 71 pitches 51 for strikes

Both of these guys could be fun.

Edit:
Also Clifton was dominant last night too
6.2 IP 3 hits, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 k's, 52 pitches 43 for strikes(holy crap....that efficiency)
 

DanTown

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I know September is going to be clinch city but I'm excited to see if Candelario and Almora can continue to build on their excellent years at Iowa.
 

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