Bears are 10 Above Average players away from Super Bowl contention

What makes a Super Bowl contender? When Pro Football Focus analyzed the 28 teams that played in the conference championship games for the 2007 to 2013 seasons, it found that, on average, 40 percent of those rosters were composed of good/elite players (you had to play 250-plus snaps to qualify). Using that methodology, PFF determined how many above-average players stood between your team and contending for this year's Super Bowl.



The Best, Worst Values

by Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com

Best -- DT Stephen Paea: He started 16 games for the first time in his career in 2014, amassing 33 tackles and six sacks (both career highs). In the final year of his rookie contract, Paea earned a salary of $877,623. To put that in perspective, Washington Redskins DT Jason Hatcher earned $10 million for 5.5 sacks this season, and the Bears had 14 defenders who earned more than $1 million. Chicago would be wise to re-sign Paea and then build their interior defense around him.

Worst -- DE Lamarr Houston: Quarterback Jay Cutler's price tag and performance are well known, but at least the Bears got 15 games out of him. Meanwhile, Houston, Chicago's highest-paid defender in 2014 ($9 million), played just eight games, accumulating 11 tackles and one sack -- after which he tore his ACL while celebrating. (Fellow Bears DE Willie Young made $4 million for 10 sacks in 2014.) Houston was advertised as a run-stopper, but the Bears' run defense ranked 20th in the NFL before his injury.


Grading the QB

by Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com



Jay Cutler was the NFL's highest-paid player in 2014, earning $22.5 million for a disastrous 24-turnover season that included a one-game benching and the firing of the coach (Marc Trestman) hired to elevate his career. Cutler is guaranteed $15.5 million for 2014, meaning the Bears will take a significant financial hit if they release him. (A trade could mitigate the impact.) The mess is compounded by the fact that there are no viable replacements on the roster.


Positional Needs

by Michael C. Wright, ESPN.com

Safety: Chris Conte played on just 44 percent of Chicago's defensive snaps in 2014, and his injury history makes it unlikely the Bears will re-sign him. Ryan Mundy -- who finished the season with a team-high 103 tackles and a career-high four picks -- is a serviceable starter. But the rest of the group (Danny McCray, Brock Vereen and Anthony Walters) is primarily suited to serve as role players.

Cornerback: Despite playing in all 16 games, Tim Jennings, 31, posted zero interceptions for the first time since 2007. After signing a contract worth $11.8 million guaranteed last offseason, Jennings isn't going anywhere but is perhaps better suited for the nickel corner role. The Bears aren't likely to bring back 33-year-old free-agent-to-be Charles Tillman, so they could use an experienced corner to play opposite Kyle Fuller.

Offensive line: The Bears would be wise to re-sign center Brian de la Puente and groom him to be the heir apparent to Roberto Garza, who has one year left on his deal. Jordan Mills could use some competition at right tackle. Too often this season, the offense was forced to help out Mills with a tight end and/or running back, which led to predictability in the offense. The Bears are likely stuck with LT Jermon Bushrod's hefty contract for at least another season.

Remember when I was saying this in week 9 or 10 or 11 and people disliked the crap out of me.....

Yeah......

Yeah.....

Is the 1 yr turnaround, 2nd yr contender model finally melting away on here?

2017 folks, if it isn't going to help us contend for a playoff spot in 2017, don't do it today.

i don't buy it. my biggest problem with evaluation tools like pff are that they don't take into account coaching. were players put in the best place to be successful? how does a toxic environment with terrible coaches play into their evaluation? does play calling on both sides of the ball enter into consideration? predictability can give the opponent an advantage and make good players look bad. not making the right calls on defense or the offensive line can make good players look bad.

bears fans are going to see what real coaches can do this year. the bears have a lot more talent then they're given credit for. the 2014 bears were a failure because of a clueless and ineffectual coaching. there was no leadership from trestman or tucker. no accountability. no control over the players. trestman's offense was one dimensional and predictable. tucker ran a vanilla system that refused to challenge receivers or scheme in any way to take things away from opposing offenses.

personally, i think with better coaching and the exact same roster as last year, this is an 8-10 win team. i can't stress enough how terrible trestman and his staff were on every level. there's no way you can make these kinds of evaluations with coaching like this.

" the 2014 bears were a failure because of a clueless and ineffectual coaching."

See, that is where you are wrong.

We were an 8-8 team that lost it's best DE and CB before the yr started and was aging badly anyway.

You signed a replacement for Peppers that himself was old and couldn't beat ANYONE around the edge this yr. He was totally ineffective.

You have an old CB who is ok in zone usually but has no size and was a nightmare in coverage all yr.

You have a mediocre OL...which had an ancient C who got mauled all season, and that has nothing to do with coaching.

You have an aging WR whose play was mediocre this yr and who didn't look like he could get open AT ALL down the field, that has nothing to do with coaching imho....it's age or injury-probably a combination of the two.

You don't have a legit solid starting Safety on this team...didn't have one in camp, don't have one today.

Do I really need to broach the QBacking issue??? Coaching? The guy has had 99 coaches.....he is what he is.

Sure, coaching was A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR in this yr's debacle, but this team is funamentally a 6-10/7-9 type team on the merits.....and ITS FKN OLD AS FK.

Spartan said:

What makes a Super Bowl contender? When Pro Football Focus analyzed the 28 teams that played in the conference championship games for the 2007 to 2013 seasons, it found that, on average, 40 percent of those rosters were composed of good/elite players (you had to play 250-plus snaps to qualify). Using that methodology, PFF determined how many above-average players stood between your team and contending for this year's Super Bowl.



The Best, Worst Values

by Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com

Best -- DT Stephen Paea: He started 16 games for the first time in his career in 2014, amassing 33 tackles and six sacks (both career highs). In the final year of his rookie contract, Paea earned a salary of $877,623. To put that in perspective, Washington Redskins DT Jason Hatcher earned $10 million for 5.5 sacks this season, and the Bears had 14 defenders who earned more than $1 million. Chicago would be wise to re-sign Paea and then build their interior defense around him.

Worst -- DE Lamarr Houston: Quarterback Jay Cutler's price tag and performance are well known, but at least the Bears got 15 games out of him. Meanwhile, Houston, Chicago's highest-paid defender in 2014 ($9 million), played just eight games, accumulating 11 tackles and one sack -- after which he tore his ACL while celebrating. (Fellow Bears DE Willie Young made $4 million for 10 sacks in 2014.) Houston was advertised as a run-stopper, but the Bears' run defense ranked 20th in the NFL before his injury.


Grading the QB

by Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com

Jay Cutler was the NFL's highest-paid player in 2014, earning $22.5 million for a disastrous 24-turnover season that included a one-game benching and the firing of the coach (Marc Trestman) hired to elevate his career. Cutler is guaranteed $15.5 million for 2014, meaning the Bears will take a significant financial hit if they release him. (A trade could mitigate the impact.) The mess is compounded by the fact that there are no viable replacements on the roster.


Positional Needs

by Michael C. Wright, ESPN.com

Safety: Chris Conte played on just 44 percent of Chicago's defensive snaps in 2014, and his injury history makes it unlikely the Bears will re-sign him. Ryan Mundy -- who finished the season with a team-high 103 tackles and a career-high four picks -- is a serviceable starter. But the rest of the group (Danny McCray, Brock Vereen and Anthony Walters) is primarily suited to serve as role players.

Cornerback: Despite playing in all 16 games, Tim Jennings, 31, posted zero interceptions for the first time since 2007. After signing a contract worth $11.8 million guaranteed last offseason, Jennings isn't going anywhere but is perhaps better suited for the nickel corner role. The Bears aren't likely to bring back 33-year-old free-agent-to-be Charles Tillman, so they could use an experienced corner to play opposite Kyle Fuller.

Offensive line: The Bears would be wise to re-sign center Brian de la Puente and groom him to be the heir apparent to Roberto Garza, who has one year left on his deal. Jordan Mills could use some competition at right tackle. Too often this season, the offense was forced to help out Mills with a tight end and/or running back, which led to predictability in the offense. The Bears are likely stuck with LT Jermon Bushrod's hefty contract for at least another season.

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Why do people talk about DLP like he's a 25 year old spring chicken? Fact is, his skills are diminishing as well.

theOHIOSTATE! said:

" the 2014 bears were a failure because of a clueless and ineffectual coaching."

See, that is where you are wrong.

We were an 8-8 team that lost it's best DE and CB before the yr started and was aging badly anyway.

You signed a replacement for Peppers that himself was old and couldn't beat ANYONE around the edge this yr. He was totally ineffective.

You have an old CB who is ok in zone usually but has no size and was a nightmare in coverage all yr.

You have a mediocre OL...which had an ancient C who got mauled all season, and that has nothing to do with coaching.

You have an aging WR whose play was mediocre this yr and who didn't look like he could get open AT ALL down the field, that has nothing to do with coaching imho....it's age or injury-probably a combination of the two.

You don't have a legit solid starting Safety on this team...didn't have one in camp, don't have one today.

Do I really need to broach the QBacking issue??? Coaching? The guy has had 99 coaches.....he is what he is.

Sure, coaching was A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR in this yr's debacle, but this team is funamentally a 6-10/7-9 type team on the merits.....and ITS FKN OLD AS FK.

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So will you be the 1st to say you were wrong when they go 9-7 next year.

hyatt151 said:

Why do people talk about DLP like he's a 25 year old spring chicken? Fact is, his skills are diminishing as well.

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Agreed. Would rather draft a center for the long haul. Need a tackle badly too. Slauson is the only one of the OL free agent signings I'm comfortable going forward with. We're set at guard. Need a center and a tackle or two.

Pickles said:

So will you be the 1st to say you were wrong when they go 9-7 next year.

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What is it FACTUALLY, you aren't agreeing with?

What's 9-7 going to accomplish next yr exactly?

I was right this yr and no one admits it...lol.

hyatt151 said:

Why do people talk about DLP like he's a 25 year old spring chicken? Fact is, his skills are diminishing as well.

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He looked better than Garza at Center, but horrid during his brief spell at guard. The problem for me with DLP isn't a skill thing...it is a scheme thing. I imagine he was brought in due to familiarity with Kromer's blocking scheme. Did this latest regime change kill any value he had left?

(Garza did get that extension)

If we are starting over from scratch again...draft a center and hope he is good enough to win the job over the 70 year old Garza.

theOHIOSTATE! said:

" the 2014 bears were a failure because of a clueless and ineffectual coaching."

See, that is where you are wrong.

We were an 8-8 team that lost it's best DE and CB before the yr started and was aging badly anyway.

You signed a replacement for Peppers that himself was old and couldn't beat ANYONE around the edge this yr. He was totally ineffective.

You have an old CB who is ok in zone usually but has no size and was a nightmare in coverage all yr.

You have a mediocre OL...which had an ancient C who got mauled all season, and that has nothing to do with coaching.

You have an aging WR whose play was mediocre this yr and who didn't look like he could get open AT ALL down the field, that has nothing to do with coaching imho....it's age or injury-probably a combination of the two.

You don't have a legit solid starting Safety on this team...didn't have one in camp, don't have one today.

Do I really need to broach the QBacking issue??? Coaching? The guy has had 99 coaches.....he is what he is.

Sure, coaching was A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR in this yr's debacle, but this team is funamentally a 6-10/7-9 type team on the merits.....and ITS FKN OLD AS FK.

Click to expand...

I have to disagree with you. I think rebuilding is a bit of a cliche anymore. It will take time for the players to adjust to new coaches and scheme. I don't think this team needs rebuilt from the ground up. It's just impossible to do anymore. If these coaches want to be employed from more than a year or two they are going to have to coach up some players. There is a lot of untapped potential on the roster and there are a few that will never reach that potential. Maybe 2017 for legit super bowl contention if things are going well but the team should be competing for a playoff spot in 2016. You may be right on not contending in 2015 but I wouldn't be that surprised if they did.

For the defense, the only constant was that everyone looked bad. Tucker ran a poor scheme, didn't develop hardly any talent and was undisciplined. There has been one player on the D that has shown any kind of progression and development and that's Paea. There are guys on the roster that aren't even close to reaching their potential. There is a lot of evaluation left to do on this defense. This year the players should be put in the best possible position to succeed and then they can truly be evaluated. I wouldn't be surprised to find 5-6 guys currently on the roster to emerge as quality starters.

For the offense, we all know the story with Cutler. We all also seem to look past how long ago he took the bears to the NFC championship game with nobody at WR. Cutler sure as hell isn't the answer, but it is possible to win with him. Pieces are in place on the offense to put up enough points to win every single week. They were the #2 offense in 2013. Add a starting right tackle and a speed element at WR and there is no reason this offense shouldn't score at least 20 points ever week. You can win with that in the NFL.

I don't necessarily agree with this

To make the playoffs
1 Above average QB
1 Above average MLB
1 Above average Safety


To make NFC Championship

1 Above average QB
1 Above average MLB
1 Above average Safety
1 Above average RT
1 Above average DE

To win Super Bowl


1 Above average QB
1 Above average MLB
1 Above average Safety
1 Above average RT
1 Above average DE
1 Wes Welker Type slot WR
1 Above average CB
1 Above average OLB

Jamais Vu said:

He looked better than Garza at Center, but horrid during his brief spell at guard. The problem for me with DLP isn't a skill thing...it is a scheme thing. I imagine he was brought in due to familiarity with Kromer's blocking scheme.

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Same deal with Bushrod I think. Not at all comfortable with him as the blind side tackle in a passing game that isn't completely centered around screens and 3 step drops.

theOHIOSTATE! said:

What is it FACTUALLY, you aren't agreeing with?

What's 9-7 going to accomplish next yr exactly?

I was right this yr and no one admits it...lol.

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You stuck it out far enough where we all see it. No one has challenged your boast because a, we don't doubt you and b, who gives a shit? Frankly, I doubt anyone would fucking remember in all the noise and judging from your posts, likely tried to forget.

Not exactly sure how a guy that rushes for a 1000 yards and sets an all time record for single season receptions at his position can be called average. Also don't see BM andAJ as average. As for bad Fuller, M Wilson, and Cutler? Cutler, overpaid yes, but his passer rating was 16th out of primary team QB's with over250 passing attempts. Isn't 16th out of 32 the very definition of average (median)? I imagine other teams players are just as arbitrarily ranked. More PFF meaningless nonsense.

Which SPECIFIC POINTS do you disagree with?

Do we have more than one quality Corner we can be solid on?

Do we have even one quality starting S on the roster?

Do we have even one above average LB we know will peform at a solid starting level next season?

Do we have a quality edge rusher?

Do we have a quality starting C?

Do we have 2 quality starting OTs?

Are you sure BM is going to regain form and actually get open down the field now that he is in his 30s?

Is your best DT still 34 and your only other impact interior DLman coming off a outlier season in his contract yr?

Is you most effective DE coming off a catastrophic late season injury? Can you count on him being back 100 percent next yr?


Cutlerrrrrrr..............


That's too many question marks to think there going to be making the playoffs next yr, sorry folks.

OnemanWolfpack said:

I have to disagree with you. I think rebuilding is a bit of a cliche anymore. It will take time for the players to adjust to new coaches and scheme. I don't think this team needs rebuilt from the ground up. It's just impossible to do anymore. If these coaches want to be employed from more than a year or two they are going to have to coach up some players. There is a lot of untapped potential on the roster and there are a few that will never reach that potential. Maybe 2017 for legit super bowl contention if things are going well but the team should be competing for a playoff spot in 2016. You may be right on not contending in 2015 but I wouldn't be that surprised if they did.

For the defense, the only constant was that everyone looked bad. Tucker ran a poor scheme, didn't develop hardly any talent and was undisciplined. There has been one player on the D that has shown any kind of progression and development and that's Paea. There are guys on the roster that aren't even close to reaching their potential. There is a lot of evaluation left to do on this defense. This year the players should be put in the best possible position to succeed and then they can truly be evaluated. I wouldn't be surprised to find 5-6 guys currently on the roster to emerge as quality starters.

For the offense, we all know the story with Cutler. We all also seem to look past how long ago he took the bears to the NFC championship game with nobody at WR. Cutler sure as hell isn't the answer, but it is possible to win with him. Pieces are in place on the offense to put up enough points to win every single week. They were the #2 offense in 2013. Add a starting right tackle and a speed element at WR and there is no reason this offense shouldn't score at least 20 points ever week. You can win with that in the NFL.

Click to expand...

bearmick said:

Same deal with Bushrod I think. Not at all comfortable with him as the blind side tackle in a passing game that isn't completely centered around screens and 3 step drops.

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Same here and it's not like he's a stud in the run game so I question his usefulness on the right side as well. We're probably best off finding that RT or hope Mills can play once 100% and giving our LT help instead of our RT.

I don't know if there's a sure thing LT in this draft but if Pace thinks there is, I'm OK with that at 7.

iueyedoc said:

Not exactly sure how a guy that rushes for a 1000 yards and sets an all time record for single season receptions at his position can be called average. Also don't see BM andAJ as average. As for bad Fuller, M Wilson, and Cutler? Cutler, overpaid yes, but his passer rating was 16th out of primary team QB's with over250 passing attempts. Isn't 16th out of 32 the very definition of average (median)? I imagine other teams players are just as arbitrarily ranked. More PFF meaningless nonsense.

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I don't know how anyone could argue that bad coaching wasn't a huge influence on the teams ineffectiveness.

Pickles said:

I don't know how anyone could argue that bad coaching wasn't a huge influence on the teams ineffectiveness.

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Didn't you know, PFF doesnt have a grading system for coaches so they are meaningless. But if they get one, Im sure there are some "qualified" jobless euro's all set to help grade them.

Pickles said:

Same here and it's not like he's a stud in the run game so I question his usefulness on the right side as well. We're probably best off finding that RT or hope Mills can play once 100% and giving our LT help instead of our RT.

I don't know if there's a sure thing LT in this draft but if Pace thinks there is, I'm OK with that at 7.

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Agree. Bushrod doesn't seem powerful enough for RT. More of an athlete than a mauler so you know he's already at his best position, just not the answer there. This team really needs two tackles.

iueyedoc said:

Didn't you know, PFF doesnt have a grading system for coaches so they are meaningless. But if they get one, Im sure there are some "qualified" jobless euro's all set to help grade them.

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Was that a jab at Mick51?