Cole hamels

beckdawg · Mar 2, 2015

Hamels is ok but I'd honestly prefer they went after someone younger if you're going to be giving up major pieces.

CSF77 · Mar 2, 2015

beckdawg said:
Hamels is ok but I'd honestly prefer they went after someone younger if you're going to be giving up major pieces.

My list:

#1: Price
#2. Cueto
#3: Zimmerman
#4: Fister
#5: Shark

If Zack opts out then he is 1 or a 1A. He is long in the tooth but a proven product also.

I'm coming to the opinion that they will need a #3 to slot between Arrieta and Hammel over the next few years. Lefty is preferred. But we are talking about a non ace type here. Someone like Geo Gonzalez.

On that list:

Brett Anderson: 27-32 3.73 ERA 3.51 FIP in 494 career IP. 2.4 BB/9 and a 7.0 SO/9.
Scott Kazmir: 91-79 4.07 ERA 3.96 FIP 3.7 BB/9 8.7 SO/9.

Those 2 I would expect to be looked at as the staff's 2nd LH pitcher in F/A. Basically a upgrade over Wood. That is the guy in question right now. Hammel was signed to replace Jackson. Wood right now is it the guy in the hot seat.

TC in Mississippi · Mar 2, 2015

CSF77 said:
My list:

#1: Price
#2. Cueto
#3: Zimmerman
#4: Fister
#5: Shark

If Zack opts out then he is 1 or a 1A. He is long in the tooth but a proven product also.

I'm coming to the opinion that they will need a #3 to slot between Arrieta and Hammel over the next few years. Lefty is preferred. But we are talking about a non ace type here. Someone like Geo Gonzalez.

On that list:

Brett Anderson: 27-32 3.73 ERA 3.51 FIP in 494 career IP. 2.4 BB/9 and a 7.0 SO/9.
Scott Kazmir: 91-79 4.07 ERA 3.96 FIP 3.7 BB/9 8.7 SO/9.

Those 2 I would expect to be looked at as the staff's 2nd LH pitcher in F/A. Basically a upgrade over Wood. That is the guy in question right now. Hammel was signed to replace Jackson. Wood right now is it the guy in the hot seat.

One rumor that persists is that the Cubs like Sonny Gray very much and he could be pried away from Oakland for the right price. Theo and Billy Beane have a solid working relationship and Beane is said to like Gleyber Torres and some of the young other players in the Cubs system very much. Once the Cubs have a better idea which of the more developed prospects will be available to trade I think Gray could be a viable option. If not Gray another younger guy like that would be very interesting. Someone who could start as a #3 and move up as the years go by. The FO will be looking at a ton of options.

chibears55 · Mar 2, 2015

TC in Mississippi said:
One rumor that persists is that the Cubs like Sonny Gray very much and he could be pried away from Oakland for the right price. Theo and Billy Beane have a solid working relationship and Beane is said to like Gleyber Torres and some of the young other players in the Cubs system very much. Once the Cubs have a better idea which of the more developed prospects will be available to trade I think Gray could be a viable option. If not Gray another younger guy like that would be very interesting. Someone who could start as a #3 and move up as the years go by. The FO will be looking at a ton of options.

Sonny Gray ?

Why would the As trade a good young starter they have control of for the next 5 seasons ..

That what Beane thrives on. ..

Gray wont be available until at least 2018 when beane will look to move him before he hits FA in 2020

TC in Mississippi · Mar 2, 2015

chibears55 said:
Sonny Gray ?

Why would the As trade a good young starter they have control of for the next 5 seasons ..

That what Beane thrives on. ..

Gray wont be available until at least 2018 when beane will look to move him before he hits FA in 2020

The talk has been that he would trade Gray for the right mix of position players to restock the system IF this years ad hoc rebuild doesn't work. Of course it might and that path will be closed. I really think the next arm added to this staff could be younger than you think. If they can't swing that they'll look elsewhere.

chibears55 · Mar 2, 2015

TC in Mississippi said:
The talk has been that he would trade Gray for the right mix of position players to restock the system IF this years ad hoc rebuild doesn't work. Of course it might and that path will be closed. I really think the next arm added to this staff could be younger than you think. If they can't swing that they'll look elsewhere.

It would be nice if the could add a solid arm closer to 25, i wouldn't be disappointed. ..

If they intend on going that route via trade, i think it would cost them more prospects wise in value ...

I just Hope Arrieta and Hendricks dont disappoint and maybe it could just be more about upgrading at the bottom of rotation

TC in Mississippi · Mar 2, 2015

chibears55 said:
It would be nice if the could add a solid arm closer to 25, i wouldn't be disappointed. ..

If they intend on going that route via trade, i think it would cost them more prospects wise in value ...

I just Hope Arrieta and Hendricks dont disappoint and maybe it could just be more about upgrading at the bottom of rotation

I'm not sure it would cost them any more then what Amaro expects for Hamels. That's kind of the point. Bottom line I trust this FO. 2015 is a turning point year. Let's see where we are after we play some games.

knoxville7 · Mar 2, 2015

TC in Mississippi said:
I'm not sure it would cost them any more then what Amaro expects for Hamels. That's kind of the point. Bottom line I trust this FO. 2015 is a turning point year. Let's see where we are after we play some games.

this! theres no need at the current time to make another big starting pitching splash. lets see how the season goes for a bit. if they are in contention come the trade deadline then it might be time to explore a trade. plus, by then more players will be on the trade market due to some teams falling out of the race by then. theres no rush to give away any of our young talent yet. besides, next offseason there will be some stud starters available that you wont have to part with any young players to get

beckdawg · Mar 2, 2015

CSF77 said:
My list:

#1: Price
#2. Cueto
#3: Zimmerman
#4: Fister
#5: Shark

All of those are older players than I'd like personally. Fister is 31 and while i like him as a pitcher don't really know that he's a top of the rotation guy you need during the playoffs. Price is 29.6. Cueto is 29. Zimmerman is 28.9. Shark is 30. The problem I have with dealing a major piece for these players is these are win today players. If the cubs were 2-3 years farther along they along with Hamels all make sense. Now if everything goes right maybe that's not a big deal but you can't really make decisions that way. It's highly likely the cubs despite their talent might play below it this year and maybe next. If they do then you're wasting a lot of time where those players are at their peak performance levels.

In my opinion you want to look for players 27 or younger. If we're talking about those players, Kershaw and Sale are probably off limits. I think Bumgarner is too given his post season performance. Julio Teheran is likely as well unless ATL tanks for several years. The list of guys after them above 3 fWAR are

Jose Quintana
Garrett Richards
Stephen Strasburg
Dallas Keuchel
Sonny Gray
Chris Archer
Rick Porcello
Lance Lynn
Tanner Roark
Nathan Eovaldi

You can also probably throw Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey in there once they return from injury. Of those names, Archer, Strasburg, and Gray seem most likely to be dealt at some point. That's not to say any of those players will be dealt but given how much pitching the Nats have and the talk is already out there for them to trade someone Strasburg is possible and given where the Rays and A's are as small market teams they make sense as possible traders.

beckdawg · Mar 2, 2015

chibears55 said:
Sonny Gray ?

Why would the As trade a good young starter they have control of for the next 5 seasons ..

That what Beane thrives on. ..

Gray wont be available until at least 2018 when beane will look to move him before he hits FA in 2020

Probably wouldn't today but thing is Beane has always been aggressive trading young pitchers. He traded Harden after 4 seasons with the A's. Traded Hudson after 6. Trade Gio gonzo after 3. Traded Harren after 3. It's all about return and often he can't wait like other teams can because every day he waits he generally loses leverage since he often can't just re-sign players.

CSF77 · Mar 2, 2015

beckdawg said:
Probably wouldn't today but thing is Beane has always been aggressive trading young pitchers. He traded Harden after 4 seasons with the A's. Traded Hudson after 6. Trade Gio gonzo after 3. Traded Harren after 3. It's all about return and often he can't wait like other teams can because every day he waits he generally loses leverage since he often can't just re-sign players.

That has been his MO. If Edwards or another minor league arm emerges I believe they could do a deal.

Edwards 1-2 2.35 low 90 but can hit 97. 12-6 curve. and change.
Johnson 5-5 2.54 low 90's fastball hard curve and a solid change.
Tseng 6-1 2.40 90-95 mph strong change and curve
Blackburn 9-4 3.23 90-93 mph with sink. change and curve
Black 6-7 3.47 (100 MPH sat 91-96)
Sands (LH) 3-1 1.89 (90-94) 6'3" 195 Kid to watch IMO***
Underwood 6-4 2.50 98 mph max 92-95 regular with a curve.

Edwards is high risk with his build. Black projects more as a BP with his fastball hitting 100. Johnson is the most pitch-able one.

If I had to pick one guy that I thought could become a studd it would be Carson Sands. (4th round pick 2014)

TC in Mississippi · Mar 3, 2015

beckdawg said:
All of those are older players than I'd like personally. Fister is 31 and while i like him as a pitcher don't really know that he's a top of the rotation guy you need during the playoffs. Price is 29.6. Cueto is 29. Zimmerman is 28.9. Shark is 30. The problem I have with dealing a major piece for these players is these are win today players. If the cubs were 2-3 years farther along they along with Hamels all make sense. Now if everything goes right maybe that's not a big deal but you can't really make decisions that way. It's highly likely the cubs despite their talent might play below it this year and maybe next. If they do then you're wasting a lot of time where those players are at their peak performance levels.

In my opinion you want to look for players 27 or younger. If we're talking about those players, Kershaw and Sale are probably off limits. I think Bumgarner is too given his post season performance. Julio Teheran is likely as well unless ATL tanks for several years. The list of guys after them above 3 fWAR are

Jose Quintana
Garrett Richards
Stephen Strasburg
Dallas Keuchel
Sonny Gray
Chris Archer
Rick Porcello
Lance Lynn
Tanner Roark
Nathan Eovaldi

You can also probably throw Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey in there once they return from injury. Of those names, Archer, Strasburg, and Gray seem most likely to be dealt at some point. That's not to say any of those players will be dealt but given how much pitching the Nats have and the talk is already out there for them to trade someone Strasburg is possible and given where the Rays and A's are as small market teams they make sense as possible traders.

Nice list. Exactly what I'm talking about. Trust me Theo and Jed are aware of everything most of the guys on the list are doing and what their teams need. I'll have to find it but someone compiled a list of AA and AAA pitching prospects that had surgery (mostly TJ) in the last 18 months that had been previously considered untouchable. Those guys are also possibilities,albeit of the more risky variety. The Cubs stockpiled position players for just this reason. The large pool of FAs is more of a fall back than the main plan IMHO.

JimJohnson · Mar 3, 2015

I can't believe we have 7 pages discussing Hamels.

chibears55 · Mar 3, 2015

beckdawg said:
All of those are older players than I'd like personally. Fister is 31 and while i like him as a pitcher don't really know that he's a top of the rotation guy you need during the playoffs. Price is 29.6. Cueto is 29. Zimmerman is 28.9. Shark is 30. The problem I have with dealing a major piece for these players is these are win today players. If the cubs were 2-3 years farther along they along with Hamels all make sense. Now if everything goes right maybe that's not a big deal but you can't really make decisions that way. It's highly likely the cubs despite their talent might play below it this year and maybe next. If they do then you're wasting a lot of time where those players are at their peak performance levels.

In my opinion you want to look for players 27 or younger. If we're talking about those players, Kershaw and Sale are probably off limits. I think Bumgarner is too given his post season performance. Julio Teheran is likely as well unless ATL tanks for several years. The list of guys after them above 3 fWAR are

Jose Quintana
Garrett Richards
Stephen Strasburg
Dallas Keuchel
Sonny Gray
Chris Archer
Rick Porcello
Lance Lynn
Tanner Roark
Nathan Eovaldi

You can also probably throw Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey in there once they return from injury. Of those names, Archer, Strasburg, and Gray seem most likely to be dealt at some point. That's not to say any of those players will be dealt but given how much pitching the Nats have and the talk is already out there for them to trade someone Strasburg is possible and given where the Rays and A's are as small market teams they make sense as possible traders.

How many of those guys will be available before they reach 28-30 ?

If their that good, and young why would their team give them up ? Good young pitching harder to get then hitters

TC in Mississippi · Mar 3, 2015

chibears55 said:
How many of those guys will be available before they reach 28-30 ?

If their that good, and young why would their team give them up ? Good young pitching harder to get then hitters

Certainly that has been the prevailing thought for a long time. This FO has been operating under the theory that right handed power has now become more valuable than pitching given the injury risks, development costs, etc. of young pitching. They could be wrong, but that's their theory/plan and they're decisions have and presumably will be based on that. One way or the other results will tell the tale.

CSF77 · Mar 3, 2015

TC in Mississippi said:
Certainly that has been the prevailing thought for a long time. This FO has been operating under the theory that right handed power has now become more valuable than pitching given the injury risks, development costs, etc. of young pitching. They could be wrong, but that's their theory/plan and they're decisions have and presumably will be based on that. One way or the other results will tell the tale.

They have gone after the best hitter in their opinion at their pick. Almora was highly rated. Russell was behind him. Almora has had a broken hand to push through. 2nd draft they went after Bryant. 3rd Schwarber. But in general they have been drafting heavy into pitching. Sure the top picks have been hitters but in volume it has been pitching. Just look at some of the best pitchers in baseball and see what round they were picked in. Not all were 1st round picks if many at all.

TC in Mississippi · Mar 3, 2015

CSF77 said:
They have gone after the best hitter in their opinion at their pick. Almora was highly rated. Russell was behind him. Almora has had a broken hand to push through. 2nd draft they went after Bryant. 3rd Schwarber. But in general they have been drafting heavy into pitching. Sure the top picks have been hitters but in volume it has been pitching. Just look at some of the best pitchers in baseball and see what round they were picked in. Not all were 1st round picks if many at all.

I understand and I agree with you. I've had this argument so many times that I didn't get into the nuance of exactly how many pitchers they've been drafting.

chibears55 · Mar 3, 2015

CSF77 said:
They have gone after the best hitter in their opinion at their pick. Almora was highly rated. Russell was behind him. Almora has had a broken hand to push through. 2nd draft they went after Bryant. 3rd Schwarber. But in general they have been drafting heavy into pitching. Sure the top picks have been hitters but in volume it has been pitching. Just look at some of the best pitchers in baseball and see what round they were picked in. Not all were 1st round picks if many at all.

True. . I read recently how they have drafted a lot of pitchers in later rounds, most of which were high schoolers.. the reason we dont hear too much about them is because their in the lower levels now but they mentioned a couple were looking really good.

CSF77 · Mar 3, 2015

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_St._Louis_Cardinals_first-round_draft_picks
Wacha #19 Miller #19, Lynn #39, Matt Morris #12, Alen Benes #16, Wainwright #29 So they drafted well in the late first round.

Mets: Matt Harvey 2010 #7. Funny most of their high regarded pitchers were not their top pick. Michael Fulmer in 2011. Mike Pelfrey 2005. Scott Kazmir 2002.

Braves:

Minor 2009
Cory Rasmus 2006

I'm thinking that the Cubs need to dive more into the intl market for pitching.

TC in Mississippi · Mar 3, 2015

CSF77 said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_St._Louis_Cardinals_first-round_draft_picks
Wacha #19 Miller #19, Lynn #39, Matt Morris #12, Alen Benes #16, Wainwright #29 So they drafted well in the late first round.

Mets: Matt Harvey 2010 #7. Funny most of their high regarded pitchers were not their top pick. Michael Fulmer in 2011. Mike Pelfrey 2005. Scott Kazmir 2002.

Braves:

Minor 2009
Cory Rasmus 2006

I'm thinking that the Cubs need to dive more into the intl market for pitching.

There's a Venezuelan kid they love, RH just turned 17. The Twins chased him this past year and didn't get him. I'll have to dig for the name.

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