Shark's take on Sabermetrics........

Bear Pride

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Interesting take on Sabermetrics from one player ..........

Sabermetrics not Samardzija's cup of tea


Sabermetrics not Samardzija's cup of tea[/B][/U][/URL][/SIZE]
By Doug Padilla
ESPNChicago.com


chi_a_jsama2_cr_576x324.jpg

AP Photo/John LocherJeff Samardzija is experiencing his first White Sox training camp.


GLENDALE, Ariz. -- Scorpions were not the only things to turn heads in Chicago White Sox camp this past weekend as the newest member of the rotation, Jeff Samardzija, expressed a dislike for advanced metrics in baseball.

Known as sabermetrics, the practice offers a deeper mathematical analysis of the game. The Society for American Baseball Research, “SABR,” defines its goal as “the search for objective knowledge about baseball.”

But the movement’s biggest critics argue that instead of giving baseball decision makers another piece of information to round out their observations, or assist in the decision-making process, sabermetrics vaults math formulas over the classic game study that scouts, coaches and front office people have been doing for a century.

Samardzija seems to know that sabremetrics is just one piece of the puzzle when studying the game, but he still expressed contempt for the practice.

“Sounds like a lot of hot air,” he said.
 

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Last year I would have said he is fuckin' idiot. Now it is positive genius :whitesox:
 

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Interesting take on Sabermetrics from one player ..........

Sabermetrics not Samardzija's cup of tea


Sabermetrics not Samardzija's cup of tea[/B][/U][/URL][/SIZE]
By Doug Padilla
ESPNChicago.com


chi_a_jsama2_cr_576x324.jpg

AP Photo/John LocherJeff Samardzija is experiencing his first White Sox training camp.


GLENDALE, Ariz. -- Scorpions were not the only things to turn heads in Chicago White Sox camp this past weekend as the newest member of the rotation, Jeff Samardzija, expressed a dislike for advanced metrics in baseball.

Known as sabermetrics, the practice offers a deeper mathematical analysis of the game. The Society for American Baseball Research, “SABR,” defines its goal as “the search for objective knowledge about baseball.”

But the movement’s biggest critics argue that instead of giving baseball decision makers another piece of information to round out their observations, or assist in the decision-making process, sabermetrics vaults math formulas over the classic game study that scouts, coaches and front office people have been doing for a century.

Samardzija seems to know that sabremetrics is just one piece of the puzzle when studying the game, but he still expressed contempt for the practice.

“Sounds like a lot of hot air,” he said.



He is absolutely correct. All this stuff is being touted as gospel when reality is different. Stats are fine in comparing strengths and weaknesses. But as predictive devices it is bullshit and for a pitcher to rely on this stuff to throw to a given hitter based on it is nuts.

Now using video? Thats a different thing. There is a world that can be explored via video by both a pitcher and a hitter. Examining the hitters twirks, the pitchers tells, the catchers set-ups, thats where gold gets mined.
 

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Samardzija looks more like a typical Sox fan than an actual MLB pitcher. ... lol!
 

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He is absolutely correct. All this stuff is being touted as gospel when reality is different. Stats are fine in comparing strengths and weaknesses. But as predictive devices it is bullshit and for a pitcher to rely on this stuff to throw to a given hitter based on it is nuts.

Now using video? Thats a different thing. There is a world that can be explored via video by both a pitcher and a hitter. Examining the hitters twirks, the pitchers tells, the catchers set-ups, thats where gold gets mined.

I tend to agree with you on this one and is why I posted it. I'm a little old fashioned myself, and think it should be used as a supplement. I took so many stats classes in College cuz it became my favorite subject for a while.

Statistics can be manipulated in so many ways, sometimes unintentionally through bias. It is very much it's own logical language. And if you're a Trek fan, Spock always had the logical answer, but Kirk went with his gut sometimes and was right. Crazy analogy I know, but makes sense if you think about it.
 

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That's pretty ironic considering guys like Jeff command more money due to sabr stats in their favor. If GM's just went by his W-L record and ERA (prior to last year) and not focused on numbers like K's, K/9, and K/BB ratio, Samardzija would not be in line for as much money in his upcoming free agency as he's most likely going to command.
 

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Its a mixture of both. Anyone who says Sabers are dumb is an idiot. Anyone who says Sabers is everything is dumb. Its a balance. Sabers can show trends that the eye wont see. The eye can figure out whats wrong or if its about to click that the numbers can not tell. The best organizations in the league use a combo of both. They have also perfected what they are looking for.
 

DMelt36

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I tend to agree with you on this one and is why I posted it. I'm a little old fashioned myself, and think it should be used as a supplement. I took so many stats classes in College cuz it became my favorite subject for a while.

Statistics can be manipulated in so many ways, sometimes unintentionally through bias. It is very much it's own logical language. And if you're a Trek fan, Spock always had the logical answer, but Kirk went with his gut sometimes and was right. Crazy analogy I know, but makes sense if you think about it.

I know very little about advanced stats in baseball, but I think a fatal flaw would be to use those stats as the gospel truth, like you said. It's better as PART of your argument, not all of it.

I also think that's a very annoying counter-argument that those against the advanced stats argument constantly turn to: that stats tell the whole story. I think you'll find that most people on the advanced stats side of the argument are aware of its limitations.

Also, Samardzija rules.
 

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I tend to agree with you on this one and is why I posted it. I'm a little old fashioned myself, and think it should be used as a supplement. I took so many stats classes in College cuz it became my favorite subject for a while.

Statistics can be manipulated in so many ways, sometimes unintentionally through bias. It is very much it's own logical language. And if you're a Trek fan, Spock always had the logical answer, but Kirk went with his gut sometimes and was right. Crazy analogy I know, but makes sense if you think about it.


You're right on the button on this. I had a stats emphasis in grad school and used advanced stats a lot in my career. But baseball really has gone bat shit with this stuff as far as I am concerned and now it is even going to football of all things with their PFF nonsense.
 

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Samardzija looks more like a typical Sox fan than an actual MLB pitcher. ... lol!

Who looks like a Cubs fan? Marylin Mason?
 

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Its a mixture of both. Anyone who says Sabers are dumb is an idiot. Anyone who says Sabers is everything is dumb. Its a balance. Sabers can show trends that the eye wont see. The eye can figure out whats wrong or if its about to click that the numbers can not tell. The best organizations in the league use a combo of both. They have also perfected what they are looking for.

Who has "Perfected what they are looking for"? What organization has done that?
 

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Who has "Perfected what they are looking for"? What organization has done that?

St. Louis Cardinals for one. I know, I know they are not the White Sox so you know nothing about them. They have been the class of MLB for a long while and have used Sabers before most. The A's have been a model of consistency using the same technique with less money. I know, I know they are not the White Sox so you know nothing about them.
 

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I know very little about advanced stats in baseball, but I think a fatal flaw would be to use those stats as the gospel truth, like you said. It's better as PART of your argument, not all of it.

I also think that's a very annoying counter-argument that those against the advanced stats argument constantly turn to: that stats tell the whole story. I think you'll find that most people on the advanced stats side of the argument are aware of its limitations.

Also, Samardzija rules.

Yes, I believe it's part of what's going on. However, when talking about the stats side of things, I think it's important who is analyzing the stats. You can have all the quality stats in the world, but if you can't really understand what they really mean, it's useless.

And yes, Shark looks to be getting off to a good start for you guys. I wonder when the long term contract comes up?
 

Bear Pride

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You're right on the button on this. I had a stats emphasis in grad school and used advanced stats a lot in my career. But baseball really has gone bat shit with this stuff as far as I am concerned and now it is even going to football of all things with their PFF nonsense.

Yeah, I had a ton of stats and logic classes, your typical 'pre law' stuff back in the day. I can't tell you how many regression analysis problems I've muddled through..... But one of the first things you learn in stats, is how to manipulate them. Ala a weighted average, or maybe your typical political bullshit, among others.
 

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St. Louis Cardinals for one. I know, I know they are not the White Sox so you know nothing about them. They have been the class of MLB for a long while and have used Sabers before most. The A's have been a model of consistency using the same technique with less money. I know, I know they are not the White Sox so you know nothing about them.

Oh go screw yourself and your nonsense crap because you do not know shit about sabermetrics other than watching that stupid Moneyball movie. YOu also do not know crap about how scouting is done nor waht scouts look for in players. The truth about the A's is that sure they used statistics in how they formatted their team but the reason why they are successful is their scouting system more than anything else. I had to laugh at the implication at the end of that movie about how the Red Sox used the A's model to win their championships. The truth is that the Red Sox won because they spent a shitload of money to outspend the Yankees and the rest of baseball and had some luck along the way with pitching. Sabermetrics went along for the ride and might have helped but that line-up wasn't put together by some geeks behind a computer nor reams of computer printouts for the manager to use in making out his line-up.

As for the Cardinals, more of the reason why they won championships is also the fact that they know pitching and when to dump players before they go bad and replace them with talented younger players. They also have a great scouting staff and minor league development system.
 

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Oh go screw yourself and your nonsense crap because you do not know shit about sabermetrics other than watching that stupid Moneyball movie. YOu also do not know crap about how scouting is done nor waht scouts look for in players. The truth about the A's is that sure they used statistics in how they formatted their team but the reason why they are successful is their scouting system more than anything else. I had to laugh at the implication at the end of that movie about how the Red Sox used the A's model to win their championships. The truth is that the Red Sox won because they spent a shitload of money to outspend the Yankees and the rest of baseball and had some luck along the way with pitching. Sabermetrics went along for the ride and might have helped but that line-up wasn't put together by some geeks behind a computer nor reams of computer printouts for the manager to use in making out his line-up.

As for the Cardinals, more of the reason why they won championships is also the fact that they know pitching and when to dump players before they go bad and replace them with talented younger players. They also have a great scouting staff and minor league development system.

Lol, because you have no understanding of metrics that means no one does. lol Good talk. Another excellent post that shows you know absolutely nothing about sports. How many people tell you this on a daily basis?
 

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St. Louis Cardinals for one. I know, I know they are not the White Sox so you know nothing about them. They have been the class of MLB for a long while and have used Sabers before most. The A's have been a model of consistency using the same technique with less money. I know, I know they are not the White Sox so you know nothing about them.

The A's are the Moneyball team. That's how Billy Beane got his "genius" label. They're not really similar to the Cardinals, especially since St. Louis has experienced postseason success.
 

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The A's are the Moneyball team. That's how Billy Beane got his "genius" label. They're not really similar to the Cardinals, especially since St. Louis has experienced postseason success.

They have more similarities then you think. I would say the Cards are a luckier team.
 

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I question as Hawk and Stone did so accurately years ago...what exactly has Beane won?
 

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I question as Hawk and Stone did so accurately years ago...what exactly has Beane won?

That is a horrendous talk even for Hawk and Stone. The A's have made the playoffs 8 out of 15 years. In this span their payroll has been over 80 million once. That was 82 million last year. It was over 70 million another time in 07. The rest of the payroll over that 15 year span never cracked over 70 million. That is insane to show that type of consistency with absolutely no money to work with. He has to rebuild and reload many of times. He has a 100 million dollar payroll. He wins the Series. I have no doubt about that. They were always one bat or one pitcher away that they could not afford to keep or get. Also, I have always questioned if Beane took the Red Sox job. Would anyone know who Theo Epstein is? Im sure Theo would have landed somewhere, but I have no doubt Beane would have led the Red Sox to the promise land himself.
 

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