Kentucky Edge-Rusher Bud Dupree Has Rare Talent, but Raw Skills

-Cago34-

CCS Mock Draft Champion
Donator
Joined:
Aug 21, 2012
Posts:
7,467
Liked Posts:
7,236
Location:
Booty
By Justis Mosqueda , Featured Columnist

http://http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2378797-kentucky-edge-rusher-bud-dupree-has-rare-talent-but-raw-skills

What should a team give up for an all-world athlete? This is the question that surrounds every evaluation of Kentucky defensive end Alvin "Bud" Dupree.

Back in 2011, a poster on FootballsFuture.com who went by the username "Waldo" found an interesting correlation between players who jumped well at the combine and players who succeeded at the next level as power rushers. He called them "Low Risk 2" players.

Essentially, with his formula, he could measure the explosive power of those players with only their combine-measured vertical and broad jumps. If the player scored better than 1.05 in the explosive power category, he was added automatically in the group.

Among those players were Shawne Merriman, who had an amazing start of his career; Brian Orakpo, a three-time Pro Bowler; Cameron Wake, an undrafted free agent who spent time in Canada before becoming an All-Pro player for the Dolphins; and Justin Houston, who was a third-round pick at the time but led the 2014 NFL season in sacks.

If you don't buy into the formula totally, you at least have to become interested with the idea that it may reflect on-field talent.

That's what brings us to Dupree, a talented enough player to earn a spot at the annual Senior Bowl, which features the best graduated college prospects in one final game before they begin their voyage through the draft cycle. His college credentials also include 23.5 career sacks and 37 tackles for losses, so it's not like he's living on athleticism alone. He can play.

When watching his film, Dupree has an odd evaluation. He's like a cannon ball. Rarely did things stay in the way of Dupree, even at the SEC level, noted for being the best conference in college football over the past decade or so. But, like a cannon ball, he had to get the trajectory right from the jump or he'd miss his target.

He's not an edge-bender. He's a power player. This power comes from lower-body conversion. This was evident in Indianapolis, where his broad jump measured in at 138 inches and his vertical jump was 42 inches, good for the top percentile of defensive ends since 1999, per Mock Draftable.

That may not mean a lot on the surface, but when you dig deeper at what those numbers mean, it could do wonders for his NFL projection.

B-yQOgGUAAEz-N8.png:large


Justis Mosqueda @JuMosq
05-14 1st round EDGE in order of Waldo EXP. Top 6: Mack, Merriman, Orakpo, Watt, Perry & Mario. Dupree is red circle.


When you chart out Waldo's explosion score for first-round defensive ends over the past decade, the results at the top are very efficient.

The top six first-round defensive ends in the category are four-time Pro Bowler Mario Williams, two-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, three-time All-Pro Merriman, three-time Pro Bowler Orakpo and Nick Perry. The only blemish is Perry, who sustained early-career injuries and was demoted to a bench role after future Hall of Fame pass-rusher Julius Peppers was added to the Green Bay Packers in 2014.

Standing above all of them? Alvin Dupree, who netted an unheard-of score of 1.16.

Expanding past the top 32 picks, I decided to look at what the results of the first four rounds would look like:

B-yU24PUIAEkyIU.png:large


Justis Mosqueda @JuMosq
2005-2014 EDGE players in 1st-4th rounds sorted by EXP. Dupree is highlighted in red. 1) Dupree, 2) Mario, 3) Collins


Still, no one could touch him. After Dupree and Williams, third on the list is Jamie Collins, a second-round selection by the New England Patriots. In college, Collins was viewed as a pass-rushing prospect but has since found his spot in the league as a primarily coverage linebacker with freaky athletic ability.

Some, including NFL.com's Lance Zierline, compare Dupree to Collins. The one issue I have with him there is his ability to drop into space. As mentioned before, he's not a bender. He's a "blow things up in front of me" player. So while I can see Collins as a similar prospect coming out of college, I think his professional career projection most likely looks a drastically different.

Instead, I see a player with the potential to be a Wake or Orakpo. Judging by his physical ability, it's not a stretch to say he can even be more than that. Both Josh Norris, of NBC Sports and Rotoworld, and Zach Whitman, a "SPARQ calculator," have co-signed the comparison at various points.

SPARQ is a Nike-backed formula to test physical ability and is most known for being used on high school recruits at large combines. Whitman says that in his database, Dupree is the only defensive end to pull a "Calvin." A "Calvin" is a reference to Calvin Johnson, who jumped over 40 inches in the vertical jump while also surpassing a 132-inch broad jump.

Dupree jumped just one inch lower in the broad jump and a half-inch shorter in the vertical than Johnson, who at one point was hands down the best receiving talent in the league. Dupree did all that while measuring an inch shorter and coming in at 30 pounds heavier than the freak receiver. That's the level of rare athlete we're talking about when we discuss Dupree as an "upside" selection.

In some ways, he can compare to Anthony Barr, an explosive athlete himself, a 6'5", 255-pounder who went ninth overall to the Minnesota Vikings last season after playing for UCLA. In his rookie year, he provided 70 tackles and four sacks for the Vikings in an off-the-ball role as a strong-side outside linebacker.

Strong-side outside linebacker is a position that Dupree could play, if he's allowed to play in a down-hill role. For example, the Seattle Seahawks' 4-3 under defense provides this. There, the strong-side linebacker plays closer to the line of scrimmage and is allowed to make the most of his potential. That player for them is either Bruce Irvin or K.J. Wright, depending on on-field circumstances.

There are two teams who run that same Seattle scheme who could use Dupree in that role early. Both the Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars need pass-rushers, and they need them quickly. They're now both led by head coaches who were former Seattle defensive coordinators.

So, how high can he go? It goes back to "What should a team give up for an all-world athlete?"

If a team had the opportunity to trade for a 22-year-old Wake, he'd be worth a top-10 draft pick, correct? That's the mentality you have to possess to take him that early. The numbers would say you have nothing to worry about. He's just a young player with all of the talent who needs some polish. That's what they pay these positional coaches for, right?

So, is Dupree worth an early selection in the 2015 draft? Only if you want a player who based on historical numbers has the potential to not only be a team's premier pass-rusher, but a generational one. If he learns to use that cannonball skill on the move, instead of pre-snap, he's a weapon against quarterbacks for years to come. That's the most valuable trait a defense can have in today's NFL.
 

-Cago34-

CCS Mock Draft Champion
Donator
Joined:
Aug 21, 2012
Posts:
7,467
Liked Posts:
7,236
Location:
Booty
Take the article for what it's worth, I just found the data interesting. Dupree is a freak.
 

DC

Minister of Archaic Titillations
Donator
Joined:
Aug 20, 2012
Posts:
11,044
Liked Posts:
8,945
Location:
Colorado
I actually read that whole damn thing. Thank you for posting.
 

legendxofxlink

Whistle Dixie
Joined:
Apr 25, 2014
Posts:
10,494
Liked Posts:
11,911
Location:
Tennessee
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Nashville Predators
  1. ETSU Buccaneers
  2. Tennessee Volunteers
Great article. I looked up Vert jump / Broad Jump / 40 times of previous workout warrior busts and they don't even come close to Dupree. I don't think combine is a direct correlation to much, but he's not just a workout warrior.

D Jordan) 32.5 / 122 / 4.67
V Gholston) 34 / 125 / 4.60
A Dupree) 42 / 138 / 4.56
 

theOHIOSTATE!

Well-known member
Joined:
Nov 9, 2014
Posts:
3,591
Liked Posts:
1,218
Location:
ND is horrible.
Dupree is a beast who is only scratching the surface as far as his athletic talent.

Seems like people just didn't notice Dupree and Gregory weren't in the same universe athletically at the combine size/speed/power wise:

Dupree jumped like 8 inches higher at 35lbs MORE POUNDS OF BODYWEIGHT!!!! That means he creates LOTS MORE EXPLOSIVE POWER than Gregory who came in light and relatively unexplosive for his weight.


Dupree was faster in the 40......


Oh, and he was only an inch or so shorter than Gregory.
 

Wild_x_Card

Well-known member
Joined:
Aug 21, 2012
Posts:
13,740
Liked Posts:
13,717
Why is captain obvious in here yelling again. Pretty sure nobody needs a lesson on the difference's between Dupree & Gregory.
 

theOHIOSTATE!

Well-known member
Joined:
Nov 9, 2014
Posts:
3,591
Liked Posts:
1,218
Location:
ND is horrible.
Why is captain obvious in here yelling again. Pretty sure nobody needs a lesson on the difference's between Dupree & Gregory.

I am pretty sure people are on here spouting nonsense about Gregory playing at or near 260lbs at Wisco all the time, so no.
 

fatbeard

Well-known member
Joined:
Dec 25, 2013
Posts:
13,173
Liked Posts:
12,172
I am pretty sure people are on here spouting nonsense about Gregory playing at or near 260lbs at Wisco all the time, so no.

Reminds me of the vocal contingent of people who swore last year that Trent Murphy was a future "monster" who would play at 285-290lbs in the NFL.
 

Top