Should the Cubs Take a Flyer on Brady Aiken Despite TJ Surgery?

dreadpirateroberts

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Should the Cubs take a flyer on Brady Aiken despite having Tommy John surgery?

If he is available, in my opinion, I would take a chance on him because he has untapped potential and the post-surgery success rate is higher than it has ever been.

Thoughts? Opinions?
 

TC in Mississippi

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Should the Cubs take a flyer on Brady Aiken despite having Tommy John surgery?

If he is available, in my opinion, I would take a chance on him because he has untapped potential and the post-surgery success rate is higher than it has ever been.

Thoughts? Opinions?

Maybe, although there's no guarantee even with the surgery that he falls to 9. If he does you have a decision. Considering that he won't pitch until probably next Ju e and needs 4 years minimum in the minors I'd be inclined to not take him if I were the Cubs. There are some other pitchers that might be available there.
 

TL1961

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If by "flyer" you mean pick him in the 2nd, then Yes.
 

SilenceS

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If by "flyer" you mean pick him in the 2nd, then Yes.

He would never fall that far. Jeff Hoffman was drafted 9th last year when he already said he needed Tommy John. Aiken would be around the same range. He is a lefty. They always will be coveted
 

TC in Mississippi

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He would never fall that far. Jeff Hoffman was drafted 9th last year when he already said he needed Tommy John. Aiken would be around the same range. He is a lefty. They always will be coveted

I heard speculation on MLB radio the on Saturday that the Rangers could still take him and the Twins would have interest both before the 9th pick so it's still unlikely that he's there. They also pointed out that another reason to take him is that about 10 teams had him on the top of their draft board last year and this so in a year or two he could be a valuable trade chip. They mentioned that Toronto may have taken Hoffman more for value than a long term piece. If he's there at 9 the Cubs have an interesting decision.
 

beckdawg

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I'm not entirely sold they go pitching regardless. These are BOS drafts under theo rounds 1-10

2003
49 - Alvarez, Abe
84 - Vaughan, Beau
114 - Papelbon, Jonathan
144 - Marshall, Brian
174 - Corn, Jessie
264 - Wilson, Jonathan

2004
94 - Dobies, Andrew
125 - Hottovy, Tommy
155 - Schroyer, Ryan
185 - Meredith, Cla
245 - Bono, Kyle

2005
26 - Hansen, Craig(wasn't their first pick as they took Ellsbury 23)
42 - Buchholz, Clay
47 - Bowden, Michael
138 - Blue, Scott
258 - Zink, J.T.
318 - Guyette, Kevin

2006
28 - Bard, Daniel(again they took Place, Jason 27th)
40 - Johnson, Kris
44 - Clay, Caleb
71 - Masterson, Justin
103 - Cox, Bryce
163 - Richardson, Dustin
313 - Snyder, Kyle

2007
55 - Hagadone, Nick
114 - Huntzinger, Brock
144 - Province, Chris
264 - Mills, Adam

2008
45 - Price, Bryan
85 - Fife, Stephen
108 - Weiland, Kyle
262 - Lee, Michael
322 - Ruiz, Pete

2009
77 - Wilson, Alex
198 - Kline, Branden
228 - Younginer, Madison
288 - Volz, Kendal

2010
39 - Ranaudo, Anthony
57 - Workman, Brandon
233 - Hernandez, Chris
263 - Price, Matt
293 - Barnette, Tyler
323 - Dahlstrand, Jacob

2011(Theo's last draft in boston)
19 - Barnes, Matt
36 - Owens, Henry
142 - Ramirez, Noe
202 - Pena, Miguel
232 - Kukuk, Cody

As an aside I'd like to talk about the work he did in 2011. Barnes from my understanding is still someone decently regarded. Their second pick was Swihart(26th), their third pick was Owens, their 4th pick was Bradley Jr., and they got Mookie Betts in the 5th..... jesus. Regardless, Barnes was the only time they used their first pick on pitching unless you count 2010 when they didn't have a 1st round pick. I only listed rounds 1-10 and while there's a lot of "WHO!?" there you also have guys like Masterson and Buchholz who've been solid starters. Papelbon, Meredith, Bowden, Bard, Ranaudo, and Workman have all mad the majors with varying degrees of success primary as relievers.

This is perhaps a bit slanted as BOS didn't pick top 10 during that reign. I'd could honestly see them doing another similar move to go over slot on some arms later in the draft by going under slot on a positional player.
 

TC in Mississippi

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I'm not entirely sold they go pitching regardless. These are BOS drafts under theo rounds 1-10

2003
49 - Alvarez, Abe
84 - Vaughan, Beau
114 - Papelbon, Jonathan
144 - Marshall, Brian
174 - Corn, Jessie
264 - Wilson, Jonathan

2004
94 - Dobies, Andrew
125 - Hottovy, Tommy
155 - Schroyer, Ryan
185 - Meredith, Cla
245 - Bono, Kyle

2005
26 - Hansen, Craig(wasn't their first pick as they took Ellsbury 23)
42 - Buchholz, Clay
47 - Bowden, Michael
138 - Blue, Scott
258 - Zink, J.T.
318 - Guyette, Kevin

2006
28 - Bard, Daniel(again they took Place, Jason 27th)
40 - Johnson, Kris
44 - Clay, Caleb
71 - Masterson, Justin
103 - Cox, Bryce
163 - Richardson, Dustin
313 - Snyder, Kyle

2007
55 - Hagadone, Nick
114 - Huntzinger, Brock
144 - Province, Chris
264 - Mills, Adam

2008
45 - Price, Bryan
85 - Fife, Stephen
108 - Weiland, Kyle
262 - Lee, Michael
322 - Ruiz, Pete

2009
77 - Wilson, Alex
198 - Kline, Branden
228 - Younginer, Madison
288 - Volz, Kendal

2010
39 - Ranaudo, Anthony
57 - Workman, Brandon
233 - Hernandez, Chris
263 - Price, Matt
293 - Barnette, Tyler
323 - Dahlstrand, Jacob

2011(Theo's last draft in boston)
19 - Barnes, Matt
36 - Owens, Henry
142 - Ramirez, Noe
202 - Pena, Miguel
232 - Kukuk, Cody

As an aside I'd like to talk about the work he did in 2011. Barnes from my understanding is still someone decently regarded. Their second pick was Swihart(26th), their third pick was Owens, their 4th pick was Bradley Jr., and they got Mookie Betts in the 5th..... jesus. Regardless, Barnes was the only time they used their first pick on pitching unless you count 2010 when they didn't have a 1st round pick. I only listed rounds 1-10 and while there's a lot of "WHO!?" there you also have guys like Masterson and Buchholz who've been solid starters. Papelbon, Meredith, Bowden, Bard, Ranaudo, and Workman have all mad the majors with varying degrees of success primary as relievers.

This is perhaps a bit slanted as BOS didn't pick top 10 during that reign. I'd could honestly see them doing another similar move to go over slot on some arms later in the draft by going under slot on a positional player.

I don't disagree with that at all. I don't think they take a pitcher unless they absolutely love the guy or love his value in the near future which they may with Aiken. If I had to bet I'm with you, I think they go over slot for a bt and take an army of pitchers later in the draft.
 

CSF77

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Rather they overload on hitting talent and use the surplus for trade goods for proven pitching. Pitching is higher risk and drafting surplus pitching latter round has been the wise choice.

On topic: Only if he falls to the 2nd round. I would rather them continue stock piling. I could see a LH power hitting movement with the team loaded on the right side now. Or a prototypical lead off hitter with strong OBA/speed.

But pitching in the 1st round? Onlt if they are picking 20+ then I could see it or if they have some extra picks late round.

Again the method they have been using to aquire pitching has worked fine. Ramirez, Arreta, Strop, Hendricks, Edwards... Do we need to go on here?
 

JosMin

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Nah. They won't be able to underslot him where they're picking and I still like the idea of getting potential impact bats in the first round then loading up with the so-called pitching lottery tickets in rounds 3-10. All about that value. Besides, this year's draft projects to be extremely heavy on impact college bats.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Man, Matuella goes down to Tommy John too... thoughts on what this does to his draft status?

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...mike-matuella-tears-ucl-headed-for-tommy-john

He'll fall too and this one could be more impactful. Teams might be more afraid of pitching and snatch up the bats. I wasn't positive on Aiken based on how many years he might need in the minors but Matuella will need less time and could fit in with the Cubs timeline better. You'd have to take a long look at 9.
 

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