Lester and the Art of the Pickoff

Leave it to Grantland

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-jon-lester-chicago-cubs-pickoff-aversion-simulation/

Like I said in the game thread, he needs to fix this. When singles are essentially doubles, the ERA takes a big hit.

I don't really think it's that big of a deal to be honest. Let's suggest for a moment that this is a Knoblauch style yips scenario which we frankly don't know for certain it is. As the article suggests his time to the plate is still better than average. The cubs invested heavily in defense at C this offseason. Given that, you would expect the catchers to be above average at throwing people out. Additionally, if this is a case where he's afflicted mentally, trying to mess with it could do more harm than good. Case in point, look at good ol Rick Ankiel. He went down this path and never got it back.

What's important is that he pitches well. If he doesn't let many people on this is a moot point. Keep in mind only 38 players last season stole 15 or more bases. So, you're talking 1 maybe 2 guys on major league teams who are above average at stealing anyways. Why's this matter? Well you're not going to run with a power hitting 1B.

Obviously it's not an ideal situation but at the end of the day it didn't hurt him last year so I honestly think people are putting to much emphasis on it.

beckdawg said:

I don't really think it's that big of a deal to be honest. Let's suggest for a moment that this is a Knoblauch style yips scenario which we frankly don't know for certain it is. As the article suggests his time to the plate is still better than average. The cubs invested heavily in defense at C this offseason.

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His time to the plate can be better than average. What isn't average is the leadoff distance allowed to the baserunner. As for the Cubs investing "heavily in defense at C", that defense is tied up in framing. That isn't defense.

Parade_Rain said:

His time to the plate can be better than average. What isn't average is the leadoff distance allowed to the baserunner. As for the Cubs investing "heavily in defense at C", that defense is tied up in framing. That isn't defense.

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Opinions on defensive metrics aside, Welington Castillo was 1st in the league last season with 6 rSB. Miguel Montero was 74th with -4. David Ross was 48th with -1. So, Ross was arguably average. So perhaps you're right in that regard. However, I've presented the idea in the past of Ross being signed to essentially teach Castillo in the ways of framing as in most other regards Castillo is one of the better catchers in the league.

rSB: Calculated by The Fielding Bible, Stolen Base Runs Saved measures how many “runs” a catcher contributes to their team by throwing out runners and preventing runners from attempting steals in the first place.

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Obviously the fix is to not allow anyone to get on base. :dunno:

beckdawg said:

Opinions on defensive metrics aside, Welington Castillo was 1st in the league last season with 6 rSB. Miguel Montero was 74th with -4. David Ross was 48th with -1. So, Ross was arguably average. So perhaps you're right in that regard. However, I've presented the idea in the past of Ross being signed to essentially teach Castillo in the ways of framing as in most other regards Castillo is one of the better catchers in the league.

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I hope you're right about the Ross signing, beck. That is the optimal outcome, IMHO.