The Debbie Downer Playoff Stats: The outlook is not good for the Bulls

​Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating is by no means 100% proof in measuring if a team is going to the Finals or not, but it is a good indicator in who is going to make the Finals and who likely is not going to make the Finals. The old adage is your need a Top 10 offense and Top 10 defense to win it all.

This is all the teams in the playoffs this year:


3 teams make the Top 10 qualifications in both categories (Atlanta, Golden State, Portland, and San Antonio).

Below is a list of the Finalists since 1977 post ABA merger.


Only a 8 teams have won without having Top 10 rankings in both categories And 3 of those had rankings of 11th.... As far as making the Finals? Plenty of horrid offensive teams have made the Finals. A few mediocre defensive teams have made the Finals as well, but each team has had a Top 10 ranking in at least one category.

Conclusion from this data?

A team with rankings like the Bulls have NEVER sniffed the NBA Finals. The closest example is the 1981 Rockets who had a 3 game series with the Lakers in which they won 2-1 and then the West that year had numerous upsets work in their favor. That team also was 40-42 and has the worst record in Finals history.

In fact, its even hard to find anything remotely close to them in the rankings reaching the Conference Finals. The closest example is the 1984 Phoenix Suns in the WCF (10th in O, 14th in D) being the closest thing to the Bulls. The results? This doesn't bode well for the Bulls.

The other factor is teams that don't win 54+ games have trouble making it as well. Of course, the East only has one such team this year. The 2007 Cavs made the Finals winning only 50 games, so it has been done in recent history.

Things that threw the alignment out for the Bulls? They have been banged up all year and guys have been injured. They are "healthy" for the playoffs. Of course health is still a major question mark.

How this also still works against them? Good teams still find a way to get in par or play together. Despite not having Derrick Rose last year and still having numerous injuries over the past several years, the Bulls defense was still a Top 5 defense. This year they aren’t displaying that....I don’t think its a factor of they forgot how to play defense or that Pau Gasol drastically lowered their ability to play defense. I think its more the number one problem is chemistry aka playing well together. That probably won’t magically just be fixed for the playoffs.

The only other factor in this to look at is how they compare to the rest of the Eastern Conference. The Hawks are the only team in the Top 10 in both categories. They don’t scare anyone, which is good or bad for them. The Cavs are a great offensive team (2nd) with a bad defense (18th). However they still have the best player in the NBA and a great second fiddle. Overall team chemistry and unity is there for them as well. They are by far the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. Washington, Milwaukee, and Indiana are all Top 10 defenses, but have awful offenses. Toronto has a good offense, but terrible defense.

The Bulls only have two challengers in the conference, and assuming they aren't upset in round 1, they will meet Cleveland in the second round. They will have to stop a great offense while maintaining their own offense.

If they do beat Cleveland, they will likely face the Atlanta Hawks, who have Top 10 rankings in both categories and beat the Bulls pretty good in the regular season twice and were neck to neck with them while building big leads twice in the regular season finale in a game which meant nothing to the Hawks. Suffice it to say, the Hawks can hang with the Bulls and they will have to do things to expose Atlanta’s lack of size.

So it can be done as they will need their health and simply better play together, but the Bulls are fighting against history at this point.

TL; DR - Bulls chances aren't good, if history has anything to say about it.

You don't need stats to tell you that lol

ratings are also skewed due to the injuries bull's have sustained to major players for significant amount of time.

Bulls ranking just outside of top 10 in both categories with a revolving door for a starting line up is a testament to the depth of our bench and coaching

Getting our bench players more PT during the regular season because of injuries could end up being a huge benefit.

Choisauce said:

ratings are also skewed due to the injuries bull's have sustained to major players for significant amount of time.

Bulls ranking just outside of top 10 in both categories with a revolving door for a starting line up is a testament to the depth of our bench and coaching

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Kind of. The Bulls aren't the only team in NBA history to have significant injuries to their star players though...

And the Bulls teams of the past few seasons still found a way to be in the Top 5 in defense, this year they just lacked in many aspects.

And to add on the injuries very well could factor into the playoffs. This team hasn't really stayed healthy more than a few games all season.

I have a hard time buying into the whole needing to be top 10 in both categories. the difference between 11th and 10th is how many ppg? 0.2?

knoxville7 said:

I have a hard time buying into the whole needing to be top 10 in both categories. the difference between 11th and 10th is how many ppg? 0.2?

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That's just the easy numbers though. If you take a longer look at the rankings usually one ranking is in the Top 5, something the Bulls are not close to.

knoxville7 said:

I have a hard time buying into the whole needing to be top 10 in both categories. the difference between 11th and 10th is how many ppg? 0.2?

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I guess the point is that if you weren't "top 10" in one category, you were very good in the other...like top 5 or something. You can make the finals without being in the top 10 in both, but generally if you're not top 10 in at least one category, you will lose, according to the trend. What further exacerbates this issue is that no champion has had rankings of 10 and 10. The closest are the Bullets from 1977 who were 10 and 9.

Scoot26 said:

That's just the easy numbers though. If you take a longer look at the rankings usually one ranking is in the Top 5, something the Bulls are not close to.

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I hear ya...but for some recent examples...dallas in 2011 was 8th and 8th, bulls are 11th and 11th...I just don't feel that theres much difference between being 7th - 13th in those rankings. sure top 3 - 5 in the rankings actually stands out above most the rest of the league, but its been shown you don't have to be top 5 in one or both to win it all. Miami in 2006 was 7th and 9th.

so while I can see why people might use it as a measuring stick to try and figure out who the top contenders might be, I just cant put too much emphasis on it IMO. but im old school, I like to go by the eye test and what I see more so than what numbers say

clonetrooper264 said:

I guess the point is that if you weren't "top 10" in one category, you were very good in the other...like top 5 or something. You can make the finals without being in the top 10 in both, but generally if you're not top 10 in at least one category, you will lose, according to the trend. What further exacerbates this issue is that no champion has had rankings of 10 and 10. The closest are the Bullets from 1977 who were 10 and 9.

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Which was almost 40 years ago.

As I've stated before, its not 100% proof, its doesn't mean for sure the Bulls won't make it... Its just they're playing against the odds.

I firmly believe if this team stays healthy in the playoffs and play like we know they're capable of, that they can reach the Finals. But there's a lot of ifs and buts.

knoxville7 said:

I hear ya...but for some recent examples...dallas in 2011 was 8th and 8th, bulls are 11th and 11th...I just don't feel that theres much difference between being 7th - 13th in those rankings. sure top 3 - 5 in the rankings actually stands out above most the rest of the league, but its been shown you don't have to be top 5 in one or both to win it all. Miami in 2006 was 7th and 9th.

so while I can see why people might use it as a measuring stick to try and figure out who the top contenders might be, I just cant put too much emphasis on it IMO. but im old school, I like to go by the eye test and what I see more so than what numbers say

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I wouldn't use it as an ultimatum per se...but it does point to the odds not being in our favor. And really, that Mavs team winning was definitely not what was expected.

Yes stats don't tell the whole story, but it does tell you trends and the trend is that teams like the Bulls don't win in the Finals. They still can, but it's unlikely.

knoxville7 said:

I hear ya...but for some recent examples...dallas in 2011 was 8th and 8th, bulls are 11th and 11th...I just don't feel that theres much difference between being 7th - 13th in those rankings. sure top 3 - 5 in the rankings actually stands out above most the rest of the league, but its been shown you don't have to be top 5 in one or both to win it all. Miami in 2006 was 7th and 9th.

so while I can see why people might use it as a measuring stick to try and figure out who the top contenders might be, I just cant put too much emphasis on it IMO. but im old school, I like to go by the eye test and what I see more so than what numbers say

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Yeah and that's what this Bulls team would be like.. a 2011 Dallas. That means they need to get hot at the right time (the playoffs) and stay injury free. Dallas was also a team NO ONE was expecting to win that year. It also helped the #1 seeded Spurs were upset in the 1st round that year for Dallas's cause.

That Dallas team had Dirk and a bunch of savvy veterans (many of who were former All-Stars). They could hit three's at will and played some great defense in the playoffs. Can the Bulls mimic that? Yes. But teams like that are rare... And given this season contains a team ranked 2nd and 1st in O and D, its very unlikely the Bulls win the whole thing unless that team is knocked out.

Scoot26 said:

Yeah and that's what this Bulls team would be like.. a 2011 Dallas. That means they need to get hot at the right time (the playoffs) and stay injury free. Dallas was also a team NO ONE was expecting to win that year. It also helped the #1 seeded Spurs were upset in the 1st round that year for Dallas's cause.

That Dallas team had Dirk and a bunch of savvy veterans (many of who were former All-Stars). They could hit three's at will and played some great defense in the playoffs. Can the Bulls mimic that? Yes. But teams like that are rare... And given this season contains a team ranked 2nd and 1st in O and D, its very unlikely the Bulls win the whole thing unless that team is knocked out.

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its probably just me being stubborn but im just not sold on golden st winning it all. health is the big thing for the bulls. had rose, and everyone else stayed relatively healthy then this team probably would be top 10 in both categories and we would be having a much different conversation right now about their chances lol

knoxville7 said:

its probably just me being stubborn but im just not sold on golden st winning it all. health is the big thing for the bulls. had rose, and everyone else stayed relatively healthy then this team probably would be top 10 in both categories and we would be having a much different conversation right now about their chances lol

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The only thing stopping Golden State to me is San Antonio.

Were they healthy the Bulls would probably still be around 7-10 in O rating and they maybe crack the Top 10 in D rating. Lets not forget defense took a second seat during the regular season this year.

knoxville7 said:

its probably just me being stubborn but im just not sold on golden st winning it all. health is the big thing for the bulls. had rose, and everyone else stayed relatively healthy then this team probably would be top 10 in both categories and we would be having a much different conversation right now about their chances lol

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Golden State does have a dang good chance though. They have the best defense in the league which no one was expecting coming in. I don't think anyone outside of San Antonio has a chance of taking them down. That's just me though.

Scoot26 said:

The only thing stopping Golden State to me is San Antonio.

Were they healthy the Bulls would probably still be around 7-10 in O rating and they maybe crack the Top 10 in D rating. Lets not forget defense took a second seat during the regular season this year.

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completely agree about the defense, I think a large part of the defensive drop was the change in personnel. they got rid of boozer and got pau, pau is slightly better on defense only because he has more length. mirotic came over and while he has been great, he has still had his moments on the defensive end and has been having to adjust to the league. aaron brooks came and again, great offensive player, but his small stature has been targeted over and over again on the defensive end. they drafted MCD, who hasn't played much, but when he has, lets just say the defensive end of the court isn't his bag baby.

throw in butler, Gibson, and noah(our 3 best defenders) missed significant time and it adds up to the defensive dropoff we saw this year.

clonetrooper264 said:

Golden State does have a dang good chance though. They have the best defense in the league which no one was expecting coming in. I don't think anyone outside of San Antonio has a chance of taking them down. That's just me though.

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you guys could end up being 100% right. I just don't think they have enough down low to win it all, but that's obviously my opinion lol I think the bulls for example match up really well with them, along with the spurs, and grizzles(yes I know they had a rough finish to the year but they were missing gasol, conley, and allen for a lot of it)

knoxville7 said:

you guys could end up being 100% right. I just don't think they have enough down low to win it all, but that's obviously my opinion lol I think the bulls for example match up really well with them, along with the spurs, and grizzles(yes I know they had a rough finish to the year but they were missing gasol, conley, and allen for a lot of it)

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Draymond Green is a pretty good defender at the PF spot in spite of his size. I think that was the key for them this season. They even have a super small ball lineup with him playing center. That lineup has been great every time they've used it. Offensively, you know what they're going to do. It's that they're so good defensively, even with a "lack of size" down low (and I say that because Bogut is still a good defender and they have David Lee hiding on the bench) that makes them so dangerous imo. Their ability to match up with normal lineups with a small ball lineup gives them the advantage.

clonetrooper264 said:

Draymond Green is a pretty good defender at the PF spot in spite of his size. I think that was the key for them this season. They even have a super small ball lineup with him playing center. That lineup has been great every time they've used it. Offensively, you know what they're going to do. It's that they're so good defensively, even with a "lack of size" down low (and I say that because Bogut is still a good defender and they have David Lee hiding on the bench) that makes them so dangerous imo. Their ability to match up with normal lineups with a small ball lineup gives them the advantage.

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draymond has been the man no argument there. but if you have to rely on bogut and lee, with their injury history, that could prove to be what does them in IMO. and the reason their small ball lineup works is because most NBA teams only have 1 or 2 true "bigs" on the roster that can actually play. they pick and choose their spots when to do it...if they try it against the Spurs, Grizz, or Bulls and it wont work IMO

on a side note, 1996 when the bulls beat the sonics, the sonics were ranked 8th offensively?? Id like to see who the 7 teams ahead of them were that year out of curiosity(bulls were one of the 7 obviously). I felt that sonics team was loaded on offense, kemp, payton, shrempf, Hawkins, etc...

knoxville7 said:

draymond has been the man no argument there. but if you have to rely on bogut and lee, with their injury history, that could prove to be what does them in IMO. and the reason their small ball lineup works is because most NBA teams only have 1 or 2 true "bigs" on the roster that can actually play. they pick and choose their spots when to do it...if they try it against the Spurs, Grizz, or Bulls and it wont work IMO

on a side note, 1996 when the bulls beat the sonics, the sonics were ranked 8th offensively?? Id like to see who the 7 teams ahead of them were that year out of curiosity(bulls were one of the 7 obviously). I felt that sonics team was loaded on offense, kemp, payton, shrempf, Hawkins, etc...

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Stockton/Malone
Shaq/Penny
Whoever the hell was on the Lakers that year
Alonzo and Mugsy in Charlotte
Reggie Miller and his support group
Phoenix had Barkley/KJ.


And I suppose they were tied for 7th with Phoenix. Weird in this basketball-reference list them as 7th but on the Sonics season page lists them 8th.

I think Spurs and Memphis will make a lot of noise in the playoffs. GS will def end up in the WCF tho and i bet AD will be able to take 1 game because Anthony Davis is that nice.

I also wouldnt be surprised of Houston lost to Dallas. Watch Harden's FT attempts dry up in the playoffs.