My final verdict on Danny Shelton

Danny Shelton is one of the most overrated players in this draft. To consider him at seven or even in the top-20 would be a monumental mistake.

Shelton's positives:

He is quick but not fast Ina three to maybe five yard area. He has a very good motor and he works really hard gives good effort on every play. He seems to have a passion for the game and loves to play football. He's got good size and at times shows decent strength. Shows at times a decent quick swim move.

Shelton's negatives and they stack up quickly:

Shelton's biggest problem is he plays with an extremely high pad level that leaves his chest plate exposed and this leaves him prone to being stunned on his initial move up the field. He plays off balance and doesn't clog up the running game with his leverage. Has decent strength but is not an overwhelming power guy that can just muck up the middle even if he makes a mistake. There's no way he racked up 90 tackles as a nose tackle, I counted maybe 12 tackles over three games and those were of the pile jumping variety or were made because someone else made the play for him to get the credit.

He plays with very short arms and isn't very leverage effective with his arms. There were better players around him in that Washington benefited from more than Shelton. He was not the engine that made that defense run. He is not an anchor in the middle of that defense he is a piece of that defense. He tires quickly and loses his effectiveness as the game wears on. Is not a Vince Wilfork or Haloti Ngata type of dominant player and I don't see that type of potential in him. I saw Ngata and Egor Olshansky play together at Oregon and those two were dominant players. Olshansky was a flipping beast. Ngata stepped on the field and gave me nightmares from day one. Ngata was one of those freaks that you think could have stepped into the NFL straight out of high school because he was so big, strong and dominant on day one.

Shelton is at most a two down run defender that is going to have to learn to play with better leverage and pad level. That's not something he can't learn, but even after learning it he's going to have to figure out how to better win at the point of attack.

Can he succeed in the NFL? Yes I think he can but I think you can draft four other player like him this year and find 20 other guys like him in the NFL. Shelton is not a guy you mortgage your future on as a potential game changer on your defense. He's just another guy and the Bears have far too many needs at other positions of value to take just another nose tackle seventh overall.

Thanks, but you could have just blogged this.

Not that Shelton is my top choice at #7 but I think you are underestimating him in a few ways.

Pad level, as you mentioned, can be fixed. As far as his production in terms of tackles, 54 of his 92 tackles were SOLO so even if you discount the assisted tackles his production is still top-notch for a NT.

As far as the 2-down player thing that is what he is at least, certainly not at most and I disagree with the assessment. You know as well as anyone what it takes to play in the PAC-12 and Shelton was a guy who didn't come off the field. Did he tire out some towards the end of games? Yes, but most 340 lb NTs keeping up with hurry-up O's all day would as well.

I see a guy who collapsed the pocket consistently and opened things up for the outside rushers who reaped the benefits of his presence. I don't think a marginal athlete like Kikaha racks up 19 sacks without Shelton in the middle. Andrew Hudson can also thank Shelton for making life easier on way to his 13 sacks.

Overall I think he is a fine prospect. I don't rate him as highly as a few of the OLBs and WRs at the top of the draft but he is up there.

Smokey Robinson said:

Not that Shelton is my top choice at #7 but I think you are underestimating him in a few ways.

Pad level, as you mentioned, can be fixed. As far as his production in terms of tackles, 54 of his 92 tackles were SOLO so even if you discount the assisted tackles his production is still top-notch for a NT.

As far as the 2-down player thing that is what he is at least, certainly not at most and I disagree with the assessment. You know as well as anyone what it takes to play in the PAC-12 and Shelton was a guy who didn't come off the field. Did he tire out some towards the end of games? Yes, but most 340 lb NTs keeping up with hurry-up O's all day would as well.

I see a guy who collapsed the pocket consistently and opened things up for the outside rushers who reaped the benefits of his presence. I don't think a marginal athlete like Kikaha racks up 19 sacks without Shelton in the middle. Andrew Hudson can also thank Shelton for making life easier on way to his 13 sacks.

Overall I think he is a fine prospect. I don't rate him as highly as a few of the OLBs and WRs at the top of the draft but he is up there.

Click to expand...

I saw the opposite. I saw guys getting pressure off the edges and forcing the QB to step up into Shelton's lane. I saw him stunned at the LOS a lot of the time and there's no way he racked up that many solo tackles. If he racked up that many solo tackles through 13 games that would roughly four solo tackles a game. At best he had 54 total tackles on the season. His tackle stats are completely misleading and it's probably the one thing that really pushes his value to a level it doesn't belong

Edit: We are essentially arguing about a guy who was more productive and more statistically dominant than Leonard Williams. There's no way you can sit there with a straight face and tell me Shelton was consistently more disruptive, more productive than Leonard Williams based on the statistics out there. I know you on this site and you're a reasonable fan, but you can compare Williams' play next to Shelton's and say Shelton was the more productive and disruptive player, the tape doesn't match the overblown tackle stats.

BearsFan51... I always see you posting the negatives on players you don't like. How about you mention a couple of the players you would like to see the Bears take at 7. Are there any?

BearsFan51 said:

I saw the opposite. I saw guys getting pressure off the edges and forcing the QB to step up into Shelton's lane. I saw him stunned at the LOS a lot of the time and there's no way he racked up that many solo tackles. If he racked up that many solo tackles through 13 games that would roughly four solo tackles a game. At best he had 54 total tackles on the season. His tackle stats are completely misleading and it's probably the one thing that really pushes his value to a level it doesn't belong

Edit: We are essentially arguing about a guy who was more productive and more statistically dominant than Leonard Williams. There's no way you can sit there with a straight face and tell me Shelton was consistently more disruptive, more productive than Leonard Williams based on the statistics out there. I know you on this site and you're a reasonable fan, but you can compare Williams' play next to Shelton's and say Shelton was the more productive and disruptive player, the tape doesn't match the overblown tackle stats.

Click to expand...

I can say Shelton was more productive than Williams his senior season but I can't say he was more productive over the course of their college careers. The biggest difference between the two IMO is upside. Leo Williams has a considerably higher ceiling.

Their production this past year is not all that different. Williams had 48 SOLO tackles (80 total) compared to 54 for Shelton (92 total). In terms of TFL Shelton edges out Williams at 16.5 to 9.5. Sacks Shelton slightly edges Williams 9 to 7.

The biggest difference in terms of production between the two is Shelton only has 1 year of elite-level production whereas Williams put up top #s every single year.

didshereallysaythat said:

BearsFan51... I always see you posting the negatives on players you don't like. How about you mention a couple of the players you would like to see the Bears take at 7. Are there any?

Click to expand...

I'd be happy with plenty of players most of which I've covered on here. Ray, Beasley, Dupree, Cooper, White, Scherff, Waynes, and Williams.

Smokey Robinson said:

I can say Shelton was more productive than Williams his senior season but I can't say he was more productive over the course of their college careers. The biggest difference between the two IMO is upside. Leo Williams has a considerably higher ceiling.

Their production this past year is not all that different. Williams had 48 SOLO tackles (80 total) compared to 54 for Shelton (92 total). In terms of TFL Shelton edges out Williams at 16.5 to 9.5. Sacks Shelton slightly edges Williams 9 to 7.

The biggest difference in terms of production between the two is Shelton only has 1 year of elite-level production whereas Williams put up top #s every single year.

Click to expand...

So having watched the games and then cross referenced the Draftbreakdown game packages, you feel that Shelton is the better and more productive college player over Leonard Williams and your argument stems from the stats?

Tone of that post was refreshingly moderated for 51. Didn't even call anyone a fucking idiot. Da fuck is going on around here.

botfly10 said:

Tone of that post was refreshingly moderated for 51. Didn't even call anyone a fucking idiot. Da fuck is going on around here.

Click to expand...

The fucking idiots have yet to arrive in this thread.

I agree that there is not enough upside with Shelton to take him at 7.

I hate to admit it but I think the Bears may just draft Shelton, maybe they can trade down and do it.

You gotta evaluate players on what they can do or become on the NFL level.

Shelton is only getting better and with his skill set 3 years from now he can be a force. He has god given qualities you just cant ignore.

RisWell said:

You gotta evaluate players on what they can do or become on the NFL level.

Shelton is only getting better and with his skill set 3 years from now he can be a force. He has god given qualities you just cant ignore.

Click to expand...

He is a good player, but I just do not see the impact potential.

Shelton will be a good NT, but he does not have Dontari Poe upside.

BearsFan51 said:

So having watched the games and then cross referenced the Draftbreakdown game packages, you feel that Shelton is the better and more productive college player over Leonard Williams and your argument stems from the stats?

Click to expand...

No. Maybe the way I wrote that out was misleading. Shelton had a more productive year in 2014 than Williams did statistically and I would say that his overall impact this past season was greater as well based on the level the Huskies played at and the success of those around him.

Williams had by far a more productive career and was far more consistent year in and year out. Williams is the better player with far more upside as well. It should also be noted they are very different players so to compare them isn't as simple as comparing the stats.

Yeah, I'm hearing a lot of people now saying that Shelton will be the guy with the biggest fall on draft day, with the reasoning that a 2 down player just doesn't justify a top pick.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Unannounced Fart said:

Yeah, I'm hearing a lot of people now saying that Shelton will be the guy with the biggest fall on draft day, with the reasoning that a 2 down player just doesn't justify a top pick.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Click to expand...

I do not think he falls past 22-26.

He is more than just a plug. He reminds me a lot more of Terrence Knighton then a Poe or Ngata. The athletic skills are just not there.

My guess is he goes late teens and turns in a nice career.

I agree with biff on this. I think Shelton is not a top ten talent and. I think picking him at seven would be a mistake.

I think it is more likely that the Bears take Arik Armstead who is not nearly as accomplished as Shelton, but has better scheme fit, physical upside and probably more long term potential.

I do not think Brandon Scherff is going to be a special OT in the NFL, better chance at OG.

It is the same way with Shelton at NT.

Both will be good long term players.