You're the GM (Game)

chibears55 · Nov 25, 2015

TC in Mississippi said:
Two contracts like that continuing at the point where they have arbitration with all the young guys will be tough and if you have any thoughts about keeping Arrieta around those would be gone. If they feel they can swing it without hurting the club in 3 or 4 years I'm for it. Absolutely. I think it's overkill though because I don't think they need a pitcher of that caliber. Arrieta, Lester, Miller/Teheran/Carrasco, Shark and Hendricks is likely the best staff top to bottom in the NL.

Samardzija going to cost about 17 or 18 per, sorry in my mind i dont see 8 to10 mil per more if you add Price or Greinke instead being that much a difference, especially if your getting a much better starter that put you in a better position to not just compete for a WS but win it.. Samardzija does neither ..

It not an overkill, it just put them in a better position to win it all.

3/4 years from now, Lester deal is almost over..
I personally want to see one more year of Arrieta before deciding on extending him.
If it were me though, id just ride him out these next 2 years and let him walk at age 32 in 2018

And again, 4 years from now this team going to be raking in money with the TV deals, etc..
They could easily have a 200+ mil payroll if they choose

Plus, we have no idea which of these kids will still be around playing then or will even reach their potentials to worry about them coming off Arbs in 5,6,7 years..
Now the time to take the advantage of what your getting from them to try and win it all

Boobaby1 · Nov 25, 2015

chibears55 said:
Samardzija going to cost about 17 or 18 per, sorry in my mind i dont see 8 to10 mil per more if you add Price or Greinke instead being that much a difference, especially if your getting a much better starter that put you in a better position to not just compete for a WS but win it.. Samardzija does neither ..

It not an overkill, it just put them in a better position to win it all.

3/4 years from now, Lester deal is almost over..
I personally want to see one more year of Arrieta before deciding on extending him.
If it were me though, id just ride him out these next 2 years and let him walk at age 32 in 2018

And again, 4 years from now this team going to be raking in money with the TV deals, etc..
They could easily have a 200+ mil payroll if they choose

Plus, we have no idea which of these kids will still be around playing then or will even reach their potentials to worry about them coming off Arbs in 5,6,7 years..
Now the time to take the advantage of what your getting from them to try and win it all

The difference is more than just the 8 million per year as especially Price or Greinke will get many more years.

A guy like Shark will get probably a 3-4 year deal. Teams will be wary about signing him any longer than that due to his 2015 performance. Shark also wants to go to a winner. Now I am not saying that the Cubs are the only team that is a winner, but there are definitely teams to rule out that he would go to.

chibears55 · Nov 25, 2015

Boobaby1 said:
The difference is more than just the 8 million per year as especially Price or Greinke will get many more years.

A guy like Shark will get probably a 3-4 year deal. Teams will be wary about signing him any longer than that due to his 2015 performance. Shark also wants to go to a winner. Now I am not saying that the Cubs are the only team that is a winner, but there are definitely teams to rule out that he would go to.

I doubt Samardzija takes 3 or 4 years unless he plans on retiring at 34 or 35..
Samardzija would take a 1 yr deal to regain his value for a final long term deal or he will take no less then a 5 yr deal at his price..

SO, with Price or Greinke getting a 6 or 7 yr deal then your looking at basically an extra year or two. .

Again, if given the choice of paying a little extra for a top starter over a middle of road one..
As a fan i hope they choose the better starter

TL1961 · Nov 25, 2015

Boobaby1 said:
The difference is more than just the 8 million per year as especially Price or Greinke will get many more years.

A guy like Shark will get probably a 3-4 year deal. Teams will be wary about signing him any longer than that due to his 2015 performance. Shark also wants to go to a winner. Now I am not saying that the Cubs are the only team that is a winner, but there are definitely teams to rule out that he would go to.

Shark may not be the worst investment the Cubs could make, but his sense of entitlement puzzles me. What has he done to feel he simply "deserves" to be a) on a winner and b) treated like royalty?

He has been determined to become a FA to get the $200 million he feels he deserves, and has been far too open about it 2 years in advance of his free agency. Here's an idea: Play your ass off for the team paying you millions before you count future millions.

CSF77 · Nov 25, 2015

chibears55 said:
I doubt Samardzija takes 3 or 4 years unless he plans on retiring at 34 or 35..
Samardzija would take a 1 yr deal to regain his value for a final long term deal or he will take no less then a 5 yr deal at his price..

SO, with Price or Greinke getting a 6 or 7 yr deal then your looking at basically an extra year or two. .

Again, if given the choice of paying a little extra for a top starter over a middle of road one..
As a fan i hope they choose the better starter

If he was going to do that he should have taken the QO that the Sox offered. I believe his ego is in the way. This year has a deep F/A pool and next year is not as good. He should have opted to take the QO and held on for next year where he would be a better option vs a 2nd to 3rd rate option.

CSF77 · Nov 25, 2015

TL1961 said:
Shark may not be the worst investment the Cubs could make, but his sense of entitlement puzzles me. What has he done to feel he simply "deserves" to be a) on a winner and b) treated like royalty?

He has been determined to become a FA to get the $200 million he feels he deserves, and has been far too open about it 2 years in advance of his free agency. Here's an idea: Play your ass off for the team paying you millions before you count future millions.

ego. He says that he has to take market value to keep that rates going up for the next guys. I respect that but I question the wisdom of not taking the 1 year opt to look at a better pay day. Right now he looks like a guy that got pounded by the AL. Sure his last 2 starts he looked to figure it out but that just says it took him that long.

Right now he is competing against 2 tier guys. I would rank them Zimmerman, John Lackey, Leake, Samardzija, Tim Lincecum, Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen

Chen would be better but you have to question his IP/game of 6.44. He profiles best in a big park with a top end D where that have room to go after the ball.

It is really not a good market for him right now and he is pricing himself out of it. You are going to see teams taking Kaz and Chen first then Leake. Lackey I expect to get picked up before him because Shark will want 100 mil and when you start to talk that cash you are getting into Zimmerman and Cueto who have a better track record.

chibears55 · Nov 25, 2015

CSF77 said:
If he was going to do that he should have taken the QO that the Sox offered. I believe his ego is in the way. This year has a deep F/A pool and next year is not as good. He should have opted to take the QO and held on for next year where he would be a better option vs a 2nd to 3rd rate option.

He not going to take the QO because there always a chance a team might give him a long term deal at a likeable price..

If not and he looks for a 1 yr deal to enhance his value in an off season like you say where he could be that no.1 FA...
My guess is he would prefer to do that with a much better team then the White Sox, wheather it the Cubs or another. ..

TC in Mississippi · Nov 25, 2015

chibears55 said:
I doubt Samardzija takes 3 or 4 years unless he plans on retiring at 34 or 35..
Samardzija would take a 1 yr deal to regain his value for a final long term deal or he will take no less then a 5 yr deal at his price..

SO, with Price or Greinke getting a 6 or 7 yr deal then your looking at basically an extra year or two. .

Again, if given the choice of paying a little extra for a top starter over a middle of road one..
As a fan i hope they choose the better starter

He's going to get a 5 year deal. The only question is whether someone e overpays. Most predictions have him getting about 5/$85 some think that if there are several teams chasing him he could get 5/$90 or so. I think if the market is not quite there the Cubs might get him for under that $85 figure. He's getting paid though. He's the 5th best FA starter on the market.

CSF77 · Nov 25, 2015

TC in Mississippi said:
He's going to get a 5 year deal. The only question is whether someone e overpays. Most predictions have him getting about 5/$85 some think that if there are several teams chasing him he could get 5/$90 or so. I think if the market is not quite there the Cubs might get him for under that $85 figure. He's getting paid though. He's the 5th best FA starter on the market.

Q-offer:
Shark, Kennedy, Lackey, Zimmerman. Gallardo

No Q-offer:
Kazmir, Leake, Lincecum, Buehrie

Projections:
(LH)
Price: 13-8 3.09 195 IP
Buehrie: 12-9 3.92 ERA 179 IP
Chin 11-8 3.67 ERA 174 IP
Kazmir: 9-9 3.60 ERA 170 IP

RH
Greinke: 15-6 2.54 ERA 191 IP
Cueto: 12-10 3.17 ERA 190 IP
Zimmerman 12-8 3.43 ERA 181 IP
Lackey 11-10 3.48 ERA 189 IP
Leake 10-9 3.76 ERA 177 IP
Gallardo 10-10 3.68 ERA 171 IP
Shark 8-11 4.19 ERA 189 IP
Kennedy 9-12 4.17 164 IP

He is not even getting love on projections. To me he doesn't stand out at all.

PickSix · Nov 26, 2015

chibears55 said:
Samardzija going to cost about 17 or 18 per, sorry in my mind i dont see 8 to10 mil per more if you add Price or Greinke instead being that much a difference, especially if your getting a much better starter that put you in a better position to not just compete for a WS but win it.. Samardzija does neither ..

It not an overkill, it just put them in a better position to win it all.

3/4 years from now, Lester deal is almost over..
I personally want to see one more year of Arrieta before deciding on extending him.
If it were me though, id just ride him out these next 2 years and let him walk at age 32 in 2018

And again, 4 years from now this team going to be raking in money with the TV deals, etc..
They could easily have a 200+ mil payroll if they choose

Plus, we have no idea which of these kids will still be around playing then or will even reach their potentials to worry about them coming off Arbs in 5,6,7 years..
Now the time to take the advantage of what your getting from them to try and win it all

I agree with this view point.
I just don't see the point of spending that kind of money on JS. He is way over valued. Serves no purpose in post season. Either bump up what you are willing to pay and go for it all now, or spend it elsewhere.

Diehardfan · Nov 26, 2015

CSF77 said:
Q-offer:
Shark, Kennedy, Lackey, Zimmerman. Gallardo

No Q-offer:
Kazmir, Leake, Lincecum, Buehrie

Projections:
(LH)
Price: 13-8 3.09 195 IP
Buehrie: 12-9 3.92 ERA 179 IP
Chin 11-8 3.67 ERA 174 IP
Kazmir: 9-9 3.60 ERA 170 IP

RH
Greinke: 15-6 2.54 ERA 191 IP
Cueto: 12-10 3.17 ERA 190 IP
Zimmerman 12-8 3.43 ERA 181 IP
Lackey 11-10 3.48 ERA 189 IP
Leake 10-9 3.76 ERA 177 IP
Gallardo 10-10 3.68 ERA 171 IP
Shark 8-11 4.19 ERA 189 IP
Kennedy 9-12 4.17 164 IP

He is not even getting love on projections. To me he doesn't stand out at all.

Oh, he stands out alright. He's got to be one of the biggest risks of any of the FA starters out there. Some of them have injury or age being luggage they carry but this guy's risk is based solely on his ridiculous inconsistencies. When he pitches well, he gets no runs...when he gets support, he gets lit up. The guy is just not a winner.

I thought he was a star waiting to happen when he was here....just not seeing it anymore.

jooo83 · Nov 26, 2015

What are your predictions on Jason Hayward's contract? Will a team really give him 200 million?

CSF77 · Nov 26, 2015

jooo83 said:
What are your predictions on Jason Hayward's contract? Will a team really give him 200 million?

It is fair for him

chibears55 · Nov 26, 2015

jooo83 said:
What are your predictions on Jason Hayward's contract? Will a team really give him 200 million?

I dont think he worth that much money. .

I would love to have Heyward on the Cubs but besides being a good defender and gets on base, he doesn't really do anything else big that stands out to deserve a huge pay day. ..

I wouldn't go any more then 5/90 to 5/100 for him

TL1961 · Nov 26, 2015

CSF77 said:
It is fair for him

$200 million for an OF with little power or run production. Amazing.

CSF77 · Nov 26, 2015

TL1961 said:
$200 million for an OF with little power or run production. Amazing.

10/200. He is 26. Takes him to 36. Now 20 mil per year is worth the top RF D in baseball and adding a contact bat. Now for CF not so much. 8/200 no way in hell.

I don't get wraped up into the total. I look at the per year. Now if he was 30 and we were talking that 10 year deal no way.

TL1961 · Nov 26, 2015

The one thing working in favor of a team that would want a shorter term, is that Heyward, if he accepts a 5 year contract, would still get another huge payday.

As 32 year old wants that 6th or 7th year because it will pay him more at age 38 than a new contract will. Heyward won't be in that position.(barring an injury)

That's not to say Heyward won't want ten years. But he MAY be interested in a shorter deal paying more per year.

TC in Mississippi · Nov 27, 2015

TL1961 said:
The one thing working in favor of a team that would want a shorter term, is that Heyward, if he accepts a 5 year contract, would still get another huge payday.

As 32 year old wants that 6th or 7th year because it will pay him more at age 38 than a new contract will. Heyward won't be in that position.(barring an injury)

That's not to say Heyward won't want ten years. But he MAY be interested in a shorter deal paying more per year.

Early on there was a lot written about him wanting to explore a shorter term deal with opt outs. Then the 8/$200 mil talk started and I haven't read that since. I'd give him 6 and up to $150 with an opt out at 4. Play him in CF until someone like Almora or Martinez is ready and then move him to RF.

chibears55 · Nov 27, 2015

TC in Mississippi said:
Early on there was a lot written about him wanting to explore a shorter term deal with opt outs. Then the 8/$200 mil talk started and I haven't read that since. I'd give him 6 and up to $150 with an opt out at 4. Play him in CF until someone like Almora or Martinez is ready and then move him to RF.

I can see the Dodgers or Angels offering up something crazy like 10/220 to nab him...

Think the only chance Cubs will have is if he truly wants to play here and offer is reasonable

TC in Mississippi · Nov 27, 2015

chibears55 said:
I can see the Dodgers or Angels offering up something crazy like 10/220 to nab him...

Think the only chance Cubs will have is if he truly wants to play here and offer is reasonable

The Dodgers are trying to cut $100 mil in salaries over the next two years, the Angels are all in but may not have much budget left. Plus he's not taking $22 mil per. He's going to want at least a chance of another payday, whether it's an opt out after 4, an 8 with an opt out at 6, or just a 6 year deal where he has a shot at FA again. He's going to get $25 AAV, it's only the term in question. Say he opts out after 4 and is still a 4 WAR player, with which his skill set is reasonable at 30, he's going to get another huge contract after making $100 mil already. If a team figures at 30 that he's still good for 18 WAR over a 5 year term that's $150-$180 mil in today's numbers with salaries expected to escalate.

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