#MLBFrontOffice: What's next for the Cubs?

dreadpirateroberts · Oct 22, 2015

#MLBFrontOffice: What's next for the Cubs?

Jim Bowden, ESPN Insider

If you count the playoffs, the Chicago Cubs had a 2015 record of 101-70. Now that's a pretty good season, especially for a team that wasn't supposed to fully break out until 2016. They arrived a year ahead of schedule and have sent a message to the baseball world that their run of excellence has begun. It's going to be a fun next three to five years at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs have a number of young players established at their respective positions already, but they have a few spots to address this offseason, as well as some other business to handle. The Cubs have come a long way, but their rebuild isn't complete just yet. This is an important offseason for them, and the rest of baseball will be watching to see what they do.

Potential free agents: Dexter Fowler, Jason Motte, Dan Haren, Chris Denorfia, Tommy Hunter, Fernando Rodney, Austin Jackson, Clayton Richard, Trevor Cahill

Objective No. 1: Figure out what to do in center field

Dexter Fowler did an excellent job for the Cubs this year in the field, at the plate and on the basepaths, and the Cubs would like to get him back. But if they can't agree on a new contract, there will be free-agent options available, including Denard Span, as well as players who can be had in a trade, such as Jacoby Ellsbury (if they're willing to pay most of his remaining salary) and Brett Gardner of the Yankees, Joc Pederson of the Dodgers and Marcell Ozuna of the Marlins.

They do have a center field prospect in Albert Almora, but it'll be at least a year or two before he's big league-ready. The team will need a stopgap until then, and Fowler really is the best solution. The Cubs won't break the bank to re-sign him, but I believe they'll make every effort to bring him back.

Objective No. 2: Sign an impact starting pitcher via free agency

Whether it's a staff ace or a middle-of-a-rotation type, the Cubs will be at least a starter short with Dan Haren expected to retire. Look for them to go big at first, trying to sign a top starter like David Price (who played for Cubs manager Joe Maddon in Tampa), Jordan Zimmermann (who is from nearby Wisconsin) or Zack Greinke if he opts out of his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Cubs have done an excellent job acquiring talent while holding on to their top prospects, and their plan is to continue to do so here rather than trade someone to fill this void. The Cubs will be able to afford this time of heavy spending because, thanks to their long-term planning, they have so many non-arbitration-eligible players under control for the next several years.

Objective No. 3: Extend the contracts of front-office execs Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer

The rebuilding efforts of team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer were on full display this season, a year ahead of schedule. They've already proved their long-term plan works. Now it's time to pay them like the top MLB execs they are.

Objective No. 4: Improve the bullpen

The Cubs could potentially lose several bullpen arms -- Fernando Rodney, Clayton Richard, Tommy Hunter, Jason Motte and Trevor Cahill -- so it's looking likely that this unit will need a rebuild. Hector Rondon is an impact closer, but the Cubs need to fill in the innings in front of him. They could look at impending free agents such as Tyler Clippard and Darren O'Day, but they should try to trade for younger options they can keep long-term. The Cubs should be contenders at least the next 3-5 years, and it's important for them to cover that span instead of piecing together a bullpen year by year.

Objective No. 5: Upgrade the back end of the rotation

With the NL Central being so competitive, the Cubs must give themselves as good a chance as possible to win day in and day out, and that means having a deep rotation. Once again, they could go the free-agent route here, looking at players like Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen or J.A. Happ. If they wanted to consider a trade, three names they could consider are Joe Ross of the Nationals, Jake Odorizzi of the Rays and Wade Miley of the Red Sox.

Objective No. 6: Determine where everyone is going to play

Does Kris Bryant play third base, right field or left field? Does Starlin Castro lock in at second base, or should the team consider trading him for starting pitching? Where will Javier Baez play? What about Kyle Schwarber?

Chicago is in an enviable spot right now, loaded with young talent. Now it's just a matter of sorting it all out -- something the Cubs should do well before their players show for spring training.

Well, I was surprised to see him put Pederson and Ozuna as potential trade options. Very unlikely they are traded though.

Doubledown · Oct 22, 2015

The more I hear about the amount of money they will have the more I see several trades.

SilenceS · Oct 23, 2015

No way on Joc Pederson. He K's at a tremendous rate. The Cubs have that. His numbers look better then what he played. It was his hot start that made the numbers ok. He was destroyed by any pitcher with a plan. Kid could easily become better but he is not a fit for the Cubs in my opinion.

brett05 · Oct 23, 2015

I think opinion 4 seems to make sense but in reality does not. Young relief pitchers seem to be the most volatile year in and year out. Piecing it together outside of a couple guys is a great strategy and doesn't really cost much on the open market.

I also like his idea of JA Happ at the back end of the rotation.

DJMoore_is_fat · Oct 23, 2015

Denard Span has a high OBP%. How about him CF? I kinda like the idea of Brett Gardner, too. Gardner's a bit older but he seems to grind out at-bats pretty well. Seems like he routinely has high OBP% as well.

Anyone know how serious Span's injury was? If there is any reason to believe he won't bounce back? We need a veteran presence in the line up, like Fowler provided.

beckdawg · Oct 23, 2015

DJMoore_is_fat said:
Denard Span has a high OBP%. How about him CF? I kinda like the idea of Brett Gardner, too. Gardner's a bit older but he seems to grind out at-bats pretty well. Seems like he routinely has high OBP% as well.

Anyone know how serious Span's injury was? If there is any reason to believe he won't bounce back? We need a veteran presence in the line up, like Fowler provided.

The thing is it's unlikely Span is a "cheap" alternative. Alex Rios and Torii Hunter got $11 mil and $10.5 mil deals last year respectively to play corner OF positions and obviously CF is far more desirable not to mention after Fowler, Span is the only real choice out there. I can easily see him getting $15 mil/season. So, if Span is $15 mil for 1-2 years and Fowler is say $20 mil for 3-4 I don't really see a reason to rock the boat. Now, it's possible Fowler can get someone to give him 5-6 years in which case i think you rethink your position.

ijustposthere · Oct 23, 2015

brett05 said:
I think opinion 4 seems to make sense but in reality does not. Young relief pitchers seem to be the most volatile year in and year out. Piecing it together outside of a couple guys is a great strategy and doesn't really cost much on the open market.

I also like his idea of JA Happ at the back end of the rotation.

I liked that too. Didn't even think about him.

DJMoore_is_fat · Oct 23, 2015

beckdawg said:
The thing is it's unlikely Span is a "cheap" alternative. Alex Rios and Torii Hunter got $11 mil and $10.5 mil deals last year respectively to play corner OF positions and obviously CF is far more desirable not to mention after Fowler, Span is the only real choice out there. I can easily see him getting $15 mil/season. So, if Span is $15 mil for 1-2 years and Fowler is say $20 mil for 3-4 I don't really see a reason to rock the boat. Now, it's possible Fowler can get someone to give him 5-6 years in which case i think you rethink your position.

So 2-years/$30M for Span or 4-years/$80M for Fowler. Don't we only need a 2-year bridge to Almora?

DanTown · Oct 23, 2015

God, do I not understand the Span love. While I get he's a "cheaper" option, I don't love the option because between he and Soler, it's just so likely he won't survive the year.

DJMoore_is_fat · Oct 23, 2015

DanTown said:
God, do I not understand the Span love. While I get he's a "cheaper" option, I don't love the option because between he and Soler, it's just so likely he won't survive the year.

Didn't he play full seasons in 2013 and 2014? And play most of the season in 2012?

What injury did he have last year? I think people like his consistently high OBP%.

Boobaby1 · Oct 23, 2015

DJMoore_is_fat said:
Didn't he play full seasons in 2013 and 2014? And play most of the season in 2012?

What injury did he have last year? I think people like his consistently high OBP%.

Heyward solves the OBP issue, and weakens the Cardinals too. :smug2:

Parade_Rain · Oct 23, 2015

brett05 said:
I think opinion 4 seems to make sense but in reality does not. Young relief pitchers seem to be the most volatile year in and year out. Piecing it together outside of a couple guys is a great strategy and doesn't really cost much on the open market.

I also like his idea of JA Happ at the back end of the rotation.

I've been thinking Happ would be a good target for the back end of the rotation, as well.

dreadpirateroberts · Oct 23, 2015

DJMoore_is_fat said:
So 2-years/$30M for Span or 4-years/$80M for Fowler. Don't we only need a 2-year bridge to Almora?

Almora could be up after the ASG break next year. It'll depend on how he does in AA/AAA. That's why I don't want them to offer Fowler (or Span) a contract exceeding like two years.

Parade_Rain · Oct 23, 2015

dreadpirateroberts said:
Almora could be up after the ASG break next year. It'll depend on how he does in AA/AAA. That's why I don't want them to offer Fowler (or Span) a contract exceeding like two years.

Almora can be part of a trade. They are in the Win Now mode. They don't need to be worried about blocking players with a FA signing.

Raskolnikov · Oct 23, 2015

Move Baez to center field? Keep Castro. Sign Greinke and Price. Almora/Baez compete for CF. We have enough bats, we don't need a plus bat at every position but you still have one if Baez can do that move.

DJMoore_is_fat · Oct 23, 2015

Raskolnikov said:
Move Baez to center field? Keep Castro. Sign Greinke and Price. Almora/Baez compete for CF. We have enough bats, we don't need a plus bat at every position but you still have one if Baez can do that move.

LMAO Price will get $200M+ and Greinke could get $175M+. In four years we'd be paying nearly $100M to Price, Lester, and Greinke and they'll all probably suck.

brett05 · Oct 23, 2015

DJMoore_is_fat said:
LMAO Price will get $200M+ and Greinke could get $175M+. In four years we'd be paying nearly $100M to Price, Lester, and Greinke and they'll all probably suck.

Maybe but you might have two or three Championships to go with that.

hester247 · Oct 23, 2015

Schwarber, Castro, CJ Edwards for Sale...get stud pitcher on huge club friendly contract and White Sox get back Blue Chip Player in Schwarber and legit young upgrade in Castro. CJ Edwards can come in and compete for #4 or 5 slot.

beckdawg · Oct 23, 2015

DJMoore_is_fat said:
So 2-years/$30M for Span or 4-years/$80M for Fowler. Don't we only need a 2-year bridge to Almora?

Ideally sure, you would only need to weather 2016 and hopefully Almora will be ready but you can't really plan like that especially with what should be a playoff team. Almora could get hurt and set himself back a year. He could be ineffective in AAA. So on and so forth. Additionally, even when Almora is ready there is some value with having someone like Fowler. You don't have to throw Almora out there to sink or swim. Facts are, Almora isn't likely to be much of a hitter regardless. If he's an average hitter(ie .254/.317/.405 in 2015 numbers) you'd be thrilled because his defense is good enough to make up for anything else. But given that hitting isn't really his calling card you probably don't want to sit him out there to sink or swim.

An example of how you could use him would be as a defensive replacement for Schwarber more likely moving Fowler to LF and having him in CF. I expect Schwarber also to catch some games so you can see some action that way. My view on Almora is you probably need 3 years playing it safe before he's ready to be an every day MLB player. 1-1.5 years at AAA should cover him as well as a half year or more as a bench player in the majors. He might be ready faster than that but that also protects you from injury setting him back.

I've suggested a 4 year deal for Fowler because honest I can't see him taking less and at the end of that deal if Almora is ready you can always deal him with 1 year left. He should still be providing value then.

brett05 · Oct 23, 2015

hester247 said:
Schwarber, Castro, CJ Edwards for Sale...get stud pitcher on huge club friendly contract and White Sox get back Blue Chip Player in Schwarber and legit young upgrade in Castro. CJ Edwards can come in and compete for #4 or 5 slot.

No thanks. Not interested in Castro or Edwards. Edwards is not better than what we have already. I like Kyle and he can DH for us. Throw in Soler and a couple of great minor league prospects.

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