Sorry for the delay. the projections continue in the AL West.
Houston Astros
The Astros don't jump off the page at you like maybe the Cubs do but I still like them as the favorites in this Division and likely the AL. The flashy part of this lineup is in the middle of the infield with Carlos Correa at SS and Jose Altuve at 2B. Correa is soon to be talked about as one of the three best players in the game along with Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. He's not a plus defender but he's likely no worse than average a SS with the ability to make most routine plays. Just that combined with his bat, including 35 HR potential and the ability to have an OBP in the .360s, makes him a scary player. Altuve is another high OBP guy that should hit about 15 HR and really got his defense turned around in 2015. You could be looking at getting 50 HR out of your middle IF. The IF corners aren't as good with Luis Valbuena, with good power, at 3B but rookie Tyler white at 1B who looks to play to a decent OPS but not quite the power you'd like to see there. The OF is solid but not spectacular with Carlos Gomez providing some solid defense down the middle. I think they could use upgrades at 1B and at C where I'm not a huge fan of Jason Castro and Evin Gattis is not your ideal DH even with teh 27 HR he hit in 2015. Still this is solid lineup. The starting pitching is a bit of a question mark after Cy Young winner Dallas Kuechel but Collin McHugh is solid and Lance McCullers has a ton of upside if he can stay healthy. The bullpen is deep anchored by new closer Ken Giles.
Key Acquisitions: Ken Giles, Doug Fister
Keys to Winning: Continued development from Correa and Altuve, another top 5 pitching performance from Kuechel and solid play everywhere else should get it done. A deadline trade to upgrade at 1B, C and/or in the rotation could put them out of reach in teh Division come September.
Impact Rookies: Tyler White
What Could go Wrong:
- Starting pitching. I'm not a Fister fan and McCullers is starting the year on the DL. There's not depth either so an injury could be devastating.
- Injuries to Correa or Altuve
Projection: 1st
Texas Rangers
It's not a stretch to say that the two teams from Texas will battle it out all year long. In contrast with the Astros, the Rangers are a veteran team with some younger players in supporting roles. Neither of their two youngest players in Delino DeShields or Rougned Odor look to be stars but both can contribute to the team with solid play. Instead the Ranges will count on guys like future HoF player Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo along with new addition Ian Desmond in his new position in LF. If Josh Hamilton can come back he could provide some OF flexibility. I don't love the rotation as after Cole Hamels it mainly consists of BOR starters. Yu Darvish changes that when he returns from TJ in July or so but I'm not sure it's enough.
Key Acquisitions: Ian Desmond
Keys to Winning: They really need to stay healthy which can be a challenge for an older squad. The starting pitching needs to outperform its history and the bullpen behind CL Shawn Tolleson needs to be better than solid.
Impact Rookies: Unless top prospect Joey Gallo find a place to play, none.
What Could Go Wrong:
- Injuries to just about anyone. this team is not deep
- Starting pitching does not outperform expectations
Projection: 2nd
Seattle Mariners
I love what Jerry Dipoto has done with this club in the short time he's been GM. This was an under performing team that went into 2015 with high expectations and fell flat. Dipota basically remade this team without any big FA moves but rather through trade and a few minor moves. They have an entirely new OF with veterans RF Seth Smith, LF Nori Aoki and CF Leonys Martin. Promising rookie Ketel Marte takes over at SS with Kyle Seager remaining at 3B, veteran Adam Lind taking over at 1B and Robinson Cano anchoring the IF at 2B. Cano actually had a very good last 70 games in 2015 after the worst start of his career and should continue that trend as he's surrounded by some better hitters in the order. The rotation is pretty good, topped by King Felix, 1-3 but then you have to worry about the BOR. The bullpen is much improved and if Steve Cishek can get back to his 2014 form he should be a solid closer for the Mariners. I think this team could compete with Texas and Houston if everything falls right but that's a big if.
Key Acquisitions: Nori Aoki, Leonys Martin, Adam Lind, Nate Karns, Steve Cishek, Seth Smith, Chris Iannetaa, Steve Clevenger
Keys to Winning: To me the key to this team competing in 2016 is how first year manager Scott Servais handles a team off so many guys who have never played with one another before and, of course, how the starting pitching performs. If both of those things end up in the positive column this could be a team to be reckoned with.
Impact Rookies: Ketel Marte
What Could Go Wrong:
- The new acquisitions struggle in their new roles.
- Injuries to pitching, rotation or pen
- Steve Cishek fails to perform
Projection: 3rd
Oakland Athletics
The A's are a team that many feel are the worst team in the AL, and that may be so, but I don't ever really underestimate Billy Beane and I don't see the worst team in the AL here. When you actually look at the lineup they really aren't awful at any position. Josh Reddick is a good player providing decent power and solid defense in RF, Khris Davis, acquired from Milwaukee provides power in LF and Billy Burns is a solid CF. Chris Coghlan rounds out that OF group well playing LF and RF at a starters level. The IF is similar with solid players including newly acquired Yonder Alonso at 1B. Steve Vogt is decent a C and while you may want more out of your DH than Billy Butler he's not going not going to kill you either. The issue in Oakland is pitching both in the bullpen and the rotation. Sonny Gray is one of the 6 or 7 best pitchers in the game but after that there isn't much there. If guys like Kendell Graveman or Jesse Hahn step up to their potential there may be something in that rotation but those are huge questions without answers and Rich Hill, picked up in FA after a comeback season with Boston, looks like a disaster. LHP and #2 prospect Sean Manae could help bolster this rotation at some point but a leg injury is keeping him in Arizona for now. If Sean Doolittle can come back from injury and be what he looked like he was becoming in 2014 they have a closer, but the rest of the pen is like the rotation and full of question marks. Here's the thing though, IF they can pitch they might stay in this thing long enough for Beane and GM David Forst to make a deal or two to really contend. Of course they also might really stink at which point Sonny Gray becomes trade bait.
Key Acquisitions: Rich Hill, Khris Davis, Chris Coghlan
Keys to Winning: This is a team that needs a fast start. If the rotation behind Gray can keep this team in games they can win some close ones at the end.
Impact Rookies: Sean Manaea
What Could Go Wrong:
- Injury to Sonny Gray derails the whole thing.
- Another starting pitcher doesn't step up his game
- Injuries
Projection: 4th
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
So if you're looking for the worst team in the AL I think you start with the Angels. The shame of it is that this is a team with the almost undisputed best player in the game in Mike Trout but other than an aging Albert Pujols and defensive whiz Andrelto Simmons (one of my favorite players in the game to watch) I'm not sure what they have. They certainly have some power in Trout, Pujols and Kole Calhoun but C.J. Cron and Yanel Escobar don't give you nearly enough power from the IF corners. Of course the main issue is pitching. Garret Richards is at the top of the rotation and really the makings of a solid workhorse but would be much better in and MOR slot that a TOR. C.J. Wilson is going to miss at least a month, likely more, Jared Weaver appears done with his velocity leaving faster than last night's burrito, Matt Shoemaker is awful and you've young guys and ifs after that. This is the team that traded away Aaron Blair btw. The bullpen has Huston Street at the back end and not much else. If you struggle to hit outside of your big boppers and you can't pitch what your left with is bad medicine. Trout deserves better.
Key Acquisitions: Daniel Nava, Andrelton Simmons
Keys to Winning: Honestly, I have no idea. If this team wins 75 games i might be shocked.
Impact Rookies: None
What Could Go Wrong:
- Literally any injuries at all could lead to a 100 loss team.
- Garret Richards and C.J. Wilson are bad.
Projection: 5th
