Here's the NL West to finish it up.
San Francisco Giants
Much like the Cubs this pick hasn't changed much in my head since ST opened. This is a tough, well balanced team with a great manager in Bruce Bochy and a solid organization behind it trying to win. It's really hard to find flaws in the starting 8 when healthy. The weakest link is probably Angel Pagan in LF but Gregor Blanco is there as the 4th OF and will see plenty of playing time. Denard Span was a solid pick up in CF, also considering health, and Hunter Pence looks to bounce back in 2016 after an injury plagued season. I may not pick him for it but if healthy he should be an MVP candidate. The IF is where this team really shines with Matt Duffy at 3B, Brandon Crawford at SS, Joe Panik at 2B and the solid Brandon Belt at 1B. This team's superstar and leader is Buster Posey behind the plate and all he does is put up great numbers year after year. I worry about bench depth for these guys but without serious injury this is the most balanced team SF has put out there on opening day in a while. As far as the pitching staff goes no one would argue that Madison Bumgarner isn't one of the top 5 starting pitchers in the NL, but the crazy thing is up until his 2 months in Kansas City no one would have questioned putting newcomer Johnny Cueto in that group either and now he's a question mark? Sorry, I don't buy it. Cueto looks poised for a big year. The other big signing for SF was Jeff Samardzija and people rightly question him a lot. Here's the thing though, as an MOR starter this guy doesn not have near the pressure on him as he has in the past his White Sox debacle has to be considered an outlier when you look at his pitch selection. He threw way too many cutters ont he South side of Chicago, a pitch much in favor with White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper, and that did Samardzija no favors. At the end of the season when he stopped throwing that pitch so much he was much more effective and I'm sure Dave Righetti understands that as well. My feeling is that top 3 is as good as anyone's. After those three it's a bit dicier as I'm nto a believer in the resurgence of Matt Cain but if he falters Chris Heston is a week away from being stretched out to start. Then you have Jake Peavy who, while he looks like your grandma should be able to hit is stuff, is unbelievably effective. Again I worry about depth here, outside of Heston, but to open the season this is a heck of a rotation. The bullpen is solid anchored by Santiago Castillo as the closer but if there's a weakness on this team this could be it. If you're looking at what this team might do at the deadline another relief arm is a strong possibility. This team could be a very tough out in the playoffs.
Key Acquisitions: Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Denard Span
Keys to Winning: If this team plays like it can they will win a lot of games. Guys like Pence, Crawford, Posey and Duffy are lineup keys while all eyes will be on Samardzija on the days he pitches.
Impact Rookies: None
What Could Go Wrong:
- 2015 Samardzija shows up, late 2015 Cueto shows up.
- Injuries to guys like Pence, Span or heaven forbid Posey could derail this thing in a hurry
Projection: 1st
Arizona Diamondbacks
I really liked this team in 2015 before all the changes they made. They had a dearth of starting pitching but they played hard for Manger Chip Hale every day and stars Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock were both top 10 players in the NL. This year they went for broke in improving that pitching signing Zack Greinke coming off what would have been in any other year a CY Young winning season and then raided the farm to acquire Shelby Miller from the Braves. In the middle of that rotation sits Patrick Corbin who came back in July of 2015 from TJ surgery and looked fully recovered by the end of the year. If he's healthy this is another 1-3 that will be feared throughout the league. I'm not a huge fan of Rubby De La Rosa at the back of that rotation but Robby Ray has consistent stuff and if he continues to develop could be a solid MOR starter. Top prospect ARchie Bradley is still waiting in the wings at AAA although he has been tentative since being hit in the face by a Carlos Gonzales line drive in his first big league stint in 2015. Overall this is a strong rotation. I'm not sure about the bullpen at all. Closer Brad Ziegler and his weird arm delivery doesn't impress me at all but I like newly acquired Tyler Clippard to take that role if Ziegler falters. The lineup is where this team is going to win or lose. Paul Goldschmidt is a perrenial MVP candidate even though half of the baseball fans don't know who he is. This guy is a monster and his 2015 numbers would have won him the 2015 MVP in years where Bryce Harper wasn't celebrating his "yes I am a superstar" party. Guys like David Peralta and Welington Castillo are solid offensive players and if Yasmany Tomas can be what he should be he's going to help as well. I worry about Juan Segura at 2B and Jake Lamb at 3B needs to step it up as a sub .700 OPS is not going to cut it. Of course the elephant in the room here is that A.J. Pollock is likely lost for at least 4 months after fracturing his elbow in the waning days of ST. This is a top ten player in the league and not easily replaced. They're initially going to try to do so with Chris Owings taking in CF but I really feel that if they are going to come close to Pollock's production it's going to have to be rookie Socrates Brito (best name in baseball btw) that's going to have to do it. In the most optimistic of projections Brito looks to be a solid hitter, an above average defender and the potential for an OBP in the mid .300s. He doesn't hold a candle to Pollock in terms of power so that's going to have to come from elsewhere but if he adapts to MLB pitching quickly Brito could make his his presence felt. With a pitching staff like this the Diamondbacks would make some noise in the playoffs although even if they do get Pollock back by that point you probably figure that they're not a true World Series contender but you never know as baseball is going to baseball.
Key Acquisitions: Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller, Tyler Clippard
Keys to Winning: Pollock's missing power is going to have to be made up, in part at least, by other guys on the team. Jake Lamb was originally expected to be a 15-20 HR guy and now would be the time to show that. Chances are though that they'll need to pick up a power bat at some point this season to stay in the playoff hunt.
Impact Rookies: Archie Bradley
What Could Go Wrong:
- The Pollock injury has probably put these guys out of a nearly certain playoff spot and any other injury could derail them completely.
- Shelby Miller fails to replicate his breakout 2015 season
- Patrick Corbin cannot return to his pre-TJ form
Projection: 2nd
LA Dodgers
There are still some that see the Dodgers as the class of this division. I'm not one of those. Yes, they're loaded with talent and yes they have the consensus best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw but their injury list is longer than any other team's in the game and even at their best this looks like a collection of ill fitting parts to me. Starting in the OF you can see the talent right off but Andre Ethier is out until July leaving the talented but oft injured Carl Crawford as the primary option if LF. In Cf you have Joc Pederson who looked well on his way to NL Rookie of the Year in early 2015 before pitchers adjusted to him and he ended up the bench. No one doubts his talent but the question is whether he'll adjust to MLB pitching in 2016. Of course in RF you have the mercurial Yasiel Puig with all the talent in the world but somehow unable to to get back to the 2013 form that made him one of the best players in the game. Personally I think he needs a serious change of scenery as both fans and teammates alike seem to have made their mind up about him already but if he can put it all back together he's a stud. Combined there is potential in that OF but the defense is suspect at best. In the IF you have one of the best in the game in Adrian Gonzales at 1B so no problem there but 2B is going to be a combination of the aging Chase Utley and Howie kendrick who has had a lingering calf injury and will start the season on the DL. Corey is a legit Rookie of the Year candidate at SS and looks to be among the best of the current young SS in the league. No problem there and Justin Turner is solid if unspectacular at 3B. Yasmani Grandal is a solid defensive backstop but not much of an offensive force and is another starting the season on the DL. Then you have the rotation. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher I've seen in the last decade. He's the best pitcher in the game adn it would be hard to argue against that. After him though I have no idea what you have. Hyun-Jin Ryu is on the DL until late May, Brett Anderson is out until the All Star break, Brandon McCarthy has no timetable for return and Frankie Montas, acquire in trade from the White Sox, is recovering from rib surgery. That leaves newly acquired Scott Kazmir as your #2 starter, Japanese star Kenta Maeda behind him and then a lot of question marks. This looks like an ace with 4 BOR starters to me but I've been wrong before. The bullpen, so weak in 2015, has hardly improved but is still anchored by one of the best closers in the game in Kenley Jansen. If they get to the 9th inning with a lead they should be fine but how often is that going to happen? I think the managerial change to Dave Roberts was a solid one, some change was needed in terms of managerial tone, but he's a first time manager with a team full of problems. I don't believe in these guys and don't see a playoff team here.
Key Acquisitions: Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir
Keys to Winning: the parts have to mesh. Carl Crawford needs to stay healthy and the OF needs some stability meaning Puig and Pederson have to be much better than they were in 2015. The pitching has to be greater than the sum of its parts and frankly I think if they're in it at the deadline they need to trade for a starting pitcher. They have the prospects for it but will they give them up? Jose Fernandez could be the guy taht turns this team into a playoff contender.
Impact Rookies: Kenta Maeda, Corey Seager
What Could Go Wrong:
- Puig and Pederson fail to improve
- The starting pitching isn't better than it looks
- Injuries continue to plague the team
Projection: 3rd
San Diego Padres
This is a team that seems to lack any sort of direction at all under GM A.J. Preller. When he took over they had a top farm system and a sub .500 MLB team. After "winning" the 2015 offseason by acquiring guys like Craig Kimbrel, Matt Kemp and James Shields they were left with a depleted farm and virtually the same record as before. Declaring themselves still in the race they virtually sat out the trade deadline and got nothing. Now they did make some moves in the offseason including trading Kimbrel but the minor league system has not recovered and the team is arguably worse. 2015 acquisition Will Myers continued to struggle and the biggest acquisition in 2016 is SS Alex Ramirez a barely above replacement level player. The rest of the team is hardly worth mentioning. They'll likey trade pitchers Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and possibly James Shields this season, which needs to be done but will further deplete the club. Sorry this team is a mess.
Key Acquisitions: Alex Ramirez, John Jay
Keys to Winning: None that I see
Impact Rookies: None
What Could Go Wrong:
- Trades for the three starting pitchers fail to materialize
Projection: 4th
Colorado Rockies
Another team that isn't really worth mentioning but unlike NL teams such as the Braves, Phillies, Reds, Brewers and maybe even the Padres it's hard to see what's happening here going forward. There's some talent here in guys like rookie Trevor Story who will start the season at SS over Jose Reyes who despite criminal charges being dropped still faces substantial MLB punishment and may never suit up for the Rockies again. Story is another young SS that bears watching and nobody shold give up on former 1st round draft pick Jon Gray although like most pitchers could struggle in Denver. Miguel Castro, the prize of the Tulo trade, has made the roster as a bullpen pitcher and could be their future closer. Whether CF Charlie Blackmon, RF and franchise star Carlos Gonzales or D.J. LeMahieau will be traded this season remains to be seen. The starting pitching is awful with 34 year old Jorge De La Rosa at the top of the rotation and it gets worse from there even with Gray set to join them eventually. Aside from newly re-acquired closer Jake McGee and teh aforementioned Castro the bullpen doesn't fare much better. Maybe even more that the Padres this is a rudderless club with know clear direction in sight. I have know idea if a team can ever win in Colorado given the pitching concerns but it doesn't look to me like these guys are even trying for now or in the future.
Key Acquisitions: Gerardo Parra, Jake McGee
Keys to Winning: None
What Could Go Wrong:
- failure to trade assets for young players to augment guys like Story, Gray and Castro. There's something to be built here but will they have they have the stones to do it?
Projection: 5th
Impact Rookies: Trevor Story, Jon Gray
