Here's the AL East. Much like the Central almost any team can win this but overall I think this division has a lot more talent.
Boston Red Sox
This is such a tough one. Every instinct I have says Boston should win this but it's easy to second guess. On paper this team looks like a solid offensive team, can play defense, has a bonafide ace in David Price and (arguably) the best closer in the game in Craig Kimbrel. The rest of the bullpen is solid too so on days when Price doesn't pitch Boston seem to be planning to employ the Royals' strategy of using multiple pitchers and matchups to get to the lockdown closer an set up men. It really should work. In addition they have a legit MVP candidate in Mookie Betts, a solid young SS in Xavier Bogaerts and one of the best young catchers in the game in Blake Swihart. Plus veteran leadership in Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz. They have an impossible decision to make in Travis Shaw who wold possibly be an upgrade at either 1B or 3B but with the money paid to Hanley Ramirez and Pedro Sandoval the decision is not simple. I think it's a formula for a winning squad but it's a tough division. Also this isn't a pitching staff built for a long playoff run so one would think that if they're solidly in it in July Dave Dombrowski will go get an arm.
Key Acquisitions: David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith
Keys to Winning: Clay Buchholz has to have more than 115 IP and Jeff Porcello has to be better. Also someone on the back end of that rotation has to step up be it Joe Kelly or Eduardo Rodriguez, the latter of whom is starting the season on the DL. The bullpen has to live up to what it looks like on paper and the 1B and 3B situations have to be settled. If they can get to the 7th inning with leads more often than not one would think that Koji Uehara, Carson Smith and Kimbrel can lock it down on most days.
Impact Rookies: Brian Johnson could see some time in teh rotation if things don't go well early.
What Could Go Wrong:
- Ramirez and Sandoval are both bad. If one is bad Travis Shaw is a more than suitable replacement based on solid last year in a decent sample size and a monster spring, but if both falter there's trouble.
- Buchholz and Porcello aren't solid contributors to the rotation.
- Carson Smith's funky delivery keeps him out longer than expected or multiple times in the season.
- Jackie Bradley Jr. regresses.
- Rusney Castillo is bad.
Projected Finish: 1st
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are every bit as capable of winning the division as Boston is. For me it's more or less a coin flip and the fact that Marcus Stroman is almost completley untested. He's never thrown more than 130 innings in a season at any level and will be asked to pitch 200 this year and be his team's ace. Lots of pressure for a 24 year old. there's no question he has the stuff but that's not always enough. Toronto does have more help after Stroman than Boston has after Price in Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ and the dependable R.A. Dickey though it's not like he's being asked to go it alone. The bullpen is solid if unspectacular and looks to be anchored by Drew Storen as the closer although they haven't named him such as of yet. Offensively, as long as they're healthy, this team is going to hit and score a ton of runs. The likes of Bautista, Encarnacion, Tulo and reigning MVP Josh Donaldson will see to that. Again, with more confidence in the pitching and a tad more depth I'd be picking them to win this division. If they do they're probably better set up for a playoff run than anyone else in the East.
Key Acquisitions: Drew Storen, J.A. Happ
Keys to Winning: It's all about the pitching staff and health. If they stay healthy and can pitch then they will win.
Impact Rookies: None
What Could Go Wrong:
- Stroman can't perform like an ace or gets hurt.
- Injuries to guys like Tulo or Danaldson as there is very little depth and no rookies to come up and save the day.
- Bad Drew Storen shows up.
- J.A. Happ is J.A. Happ, not the guy we saw in Pittsbugh last year
Projection 2nd:
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are the sexy pick in this division. Most projection models have them winning the division and a lot of writers do as well. I'm sorry but I don't see it. There is no question they can pitch. With the likes of Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore and Drew Smyly with Alex Cobb due back in August and LH phenom Blake Snell likely up by June or so they are going to be scary for hitters. They've shuffled their bullpen but it should be solid as well although with the trade of Jake Mcgee and the injury to closer Brad Boxberger there are some concerns there. As far as hitting goes it's a different story. Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier and the aging Evan Longoria are all good hitters and play their positions well. Steven Souza Jr. looks to have all teh tools but has underachieved. To me this team is at least one bat short and probably two. If the pitching keeps them in it there are certainly deals to made with pitching at a premium throughout the league but they all offseason for that and didn't pull the trigger. If they do stay in it, make a move and get to the playoffs that pitching could take them a long way but that's a lot of ifs.
Key Acquisitions- Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Danny Farquhar
Keys to Winning- There have to be some guys that aren't expected to hit much that do. Miller would be an example. If he could continue to improve his OBP and contact rate he could really help the team. He's already a solid defensive player. Again, if they are in this thing they need an impact bat before it's all said and done.
Impact Rookies: Blake Snell
What Could Go Wrong:
- Injuries to the key position players like Longoria, Dickerson, Kiermiaer.
- Further injuries to teh bullpen
- The bats have to at least give them enough to win some tight ballgames early in order to be in a position to make deals in July.
Projection: 3rd
Baltimore Orioles
It's really hard to project a team that can't really pitch a lick but has thumpers up and down the lineup. Obviously with Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado and Pedro Alvarez they're going to hit plenty of HR and score a lot of runs. They're going to need to because when you're #1 starter has a 4.22 career ERA and and career FIP closer to 5.0 you've got troubles. They picked up Yovani Gallardo as their #2 but he's more suited to be BOR starter at this point. Zach Britton is a good closer and the rest of the bullpen is OK, if not particularly overwhelming, but these guys aren't like the Royals where the bullpen can mask all sins. The strange part is that these guys spent more money in the offseason than any other team in MLB and I don't think they got better. Even if they somehow get to the top of this division, which I just can't see, they're toast in the playoffs.
Key Acquisitions: Pedro Alvarez, Yovani Gallardo, Mark Trumbo
Keys to Winning: Score a lot of damn runs and pray.
Impact Rookies: None
What Could Go Wrong:
- Matt Weiters continues his trend of making pitchers worse that began when he came from TJ surgery last year. Offering him the QO was probably a terrible mistake.
- The pitching is as bad as it looks on paper
- Manny Machado gets hurt
Projection: 4th
New York Yankees
The Yankees are the strangest bunch in this division. I'm picking them for 5th but they were a playoff team last year and I'd be less surprised if the won the division or went back to the playoffs then I would if the two teams before them in my list, Tampa Bay and Baltimore, got there. So why 5th? Well their top three players in OPS in 2015 in Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Mark Texiera have an average age of 38. Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Chase Headley are all going into their 32 year old seasons. Old man time is a bitch, although if he holds off a year these players are dangerous. I do like the Starlin Castro acquisition though as I think he and Didi Gregorious are going to hold down the middle of that IF well. The pitching staff is potentially more than adequate but Masahiro Tanaka's arm could fall off, Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi are unlikely to pitch 180 innings and Luis Severino, while potentially great, is 22 years old and has never pitched more than 120 inning in a season. I'm not really going to even mention C.C. Sabathia. If those two things end up not being issues they can rest assured in one of the best bullpens in baseball with Aroldys Chapman (after his suspension), Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances holding down the back end. Get to those guys and they'll win some games. Even if they do win, and I think father time has the edge here, the playoffs could be a tough road.
Key Acquisitions: Starlin Castro, Arodys Chapman
Keys to Winning: Really the first thing is some health in the rotation. Tanaka, Pineda and Severino could be dominant but you can't pencil that in. Next is that the older players perform like they did in 2015.
Impact Rookies: Aaron Judge (possibly)
What Could Go Wrong:
- Tanaka, already innings limited, is lost to injury
- The older players decline
- Guys like Castro and Gregorious fail to meet expectations
Projection: 5th
