IST: Cubs vs. Braves

chibears55 · May 1, 2016

One last thing I want to clear up as some think I'm saying they should send Russell to minors and be done with him..

That not what my original post was..

I just put out there that with him approaching 100 ABs and struggling, that maybe they might consider sending him down to find his groove or benching him a few games.

I'm not giving up on Addison Russell but eventually he going to need to hit , especially when you have a player like Baez sitting on bench who can be just as good defensively and might be more productive with bat.

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beckdawg · May 1, 2016

chibears55 said:
One last thing I want to clear up as some think I'm saying they should send Russell to minors and be done with him..

That not what my original post was..

I just put out there that with him approaching 100 ABs and struggling, that maybe they might consider sending him down to find his groove or benching him a few games.

I'm not giving up on Addison Russell but eventually he going to need to hit , especially when you have a player like Baez sitting on bench who can be just as good defensively and might be more productive with bat.

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Russell has a .337 OBP. I'd hardly call that struggling. True his hits aren't where you'd like him but he's also sporting a .246 BABIP. This stuff evens out. And even if it didn't, a .337 OBP with gold glove caliber defense is more than enough to warrant playing time.

beckdawg · May 1, 2016

I didn't catch todays game. How did Teheran look? Reason I ask is his name has been a trade candidate and I've always liked his potential.

chibears55 · May 1, 2016

beckdawg said:
Russell has a .337 OBP. I'd hardly call that struggling. True his hits aren't where you'd like him but he's also sporting a .246 BABIP. This stuff evens out. And even if it didn't, a .337 OBP with gold glove caliber defense is more than enough to warrant playing time.

His last 10 games he hitting .194 with 7 Ks and .295 OBP...

He struggling. ..

Obviously we can sit here and hope balls start finding holes for him, but if were having this discussion still next week and he still struggling and is hitting in the low .200s or less ..
maybe it time to give Baez a few starts in a row.

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Parade_Rain · May 1, 2016

beckdawg said:
I didn't catch todays game. How did Teheran look? Reason I ask is his name has been a trade candidate and I've always liked his potential.

I want him and I would part with Soler to get him...and I'm a Soler fanboy.

SilenceS · May 1, 2016

Parade_Rain said:
I want him and I would part with Soler to get him...and I'm a Soler fanboy.

The more I watch this team. The more I believe Soler should be traded. I don't think the guy is a bust or anything. I just think the way this team is built. He is very expandable and he needs to play somewhere where he gets full time at bats. We are a better defensive team when he is not out there and we have plenty of offense. He just seems like a luxury. If I am the Cubs, I am centering a deal with him for pitching by the deadline. Just my opinion.

Omeletpants · May 1, 2016

SilenceS said:
The more I watch this team. The more I believe Soler should be traded. I don't think the guy is a bust or anything. I just think the way this team is built. He is very expandable and he needs to play somewhere where he gets full time at bats. We are a better defensive team when he is not out there and we have plenty of offense. He just seems like a luxury. If I am the Cubs, I am centering a deal with him for pitching by the deadline. Just my opinion.

Agreed. I feel he is a distraction, like Maddon feels he needs to slot him every other day. When he does play it's nail bitting defense and all or nothing type of offense.

I would rather have Bryant in LF full time and LaStella/Biaz at 3B

Parade_Rain · May 1, 2016

I thought it was fun watching both LaStella and Viscaino play today. I think that was a trade that works out for both teams. The more I see of LaStella, the more I like him as a player. I also wonder if you package a trade around Soler, if that doesn't open the door for a callup of Candelario.

beckdawg · May 1, 2016

SilenceS said:
The more I watch this team. The more I believe Soler should be traded. I don't think the guy is a bust or anything. I just think the way this team is built. He is very expandable and he needs to play somewhere where he gets full time at bats. We are a better defensive team when he is not out there and we have plenty of offense. He just seems like a luxury. If I am the Cubs, I am centering a deal with him for pitching by the deadline. Just my opinion.

Cubs do have a multitude of options for LF presuming he goes there. And Eloy Jimenez is kind of the same player people were talking about Soler as at similar levels in the minors. Also, who knows maybe Heyward doesn't opt out in which case RF isn't a worry for a long long time.

I do wonder though with all this talk of Arrieta's deal not being close if the cubs would consider moving him and essentially swapping him out for a young starter who's maybe not quite there yet(IE not Fernandez or Gray). For example, in theory you could deal for someone like Teheran this offseason and trade away Arrieta. Not saying you necessarily trade them 1 for 1 but you could probably do that deal and return similar value level in terms of prospects which might be good because it would essentially allow you to move say Soler for a prospect who might be farther away at a more pressing area of need. You could possibly deal Soler for Teheran or whomever and then when you deal Arrieta get a high profile pitching prospect(or multiple) back who's in say AA.

TC in Mississippi · May 2, 2016

beckdawg said:
Cubs do have a multitude of options for LF presuming he goes there. And Eloy Jimenez is kind of the same player people were talking about Soler as at similar levels in the minors. Also, who knows maybe Heyward doesn't opt out in which case RF isn't a worry for a long long time.

I do wonder though with all this talk of Arrieta's deal not being close if the cubs would consider moving him and essentially swapping him out for a young starter who's maybe not quite there yet(IE not Fernandez or Gray). For example, in theory you could deal for someone like Teheran this offseason and trade away Arrieta. Not saying you necessarily trade them 1 for 1 but you could probably do that deal and return similar value level in terms of prospects which might be good because it would essentially allow you to move say Soler for a prospect who might be farther away at a more pressing area of need. You could possibly deal Soler for Teheran or whomever and then when you deal Arrieta get a high profile pitching prospect(or multiple) back who's in say AA.

I like Teheran a lot but the idea of throwing him in as a #1 starter on a championship team scares the hell out of me. I've talked a bout trading Arrieta in the offseason before and have been wildly ridiculed for the suggestion but frankly unless you can get a Gray type it probably doesn't make sense. 2017 is going to be year two if this first window and you'll need all hands on deck. I do think Soler goes for pitching but probably more for one of the 2-3 types we've talked about like Teheran or Carrasco or Salazar from Cleveland.

Diehardfan · May 2, 2016

SilenceS said:
The more I watch this team. The more I believe Soler should be traded. I don't think the guy is a bust or anything. I just think the way this team is built. He is very expandable and he needs to play somewhere where he gets full time at bats. We are a better defensive team when he is not out there and we have plenty of offense. He just seems like a luxury. If I am the Cubs, I am centering a deal with him for pitching by the deadline. Just my opinion.

Would you feel the same if Fowler or Heyward pulled a hammy or worst case scenario...blew out a knee?

Parade_Rain · May 2, 2016

Diehardfan said:
Would you feel the same if Fowler or Heyward pulled a hammy or worst case scenario...blew out a knee?

No, but eventually he will be the one going. The writing is on the wall, IMHO.

TC in Mississippi · May 2, 2016

Diehardfan said:
Would you feel the same if Fowler or Heyward pulled a hammy or worst case scenario...blew out a knee?

Injuries are a bitch and depth is always needed but by all accounts Almora is ready so that mitigates the risk. I really believe this team needs one more starter before making a playoff run and moving Soler will make sense at that time. Plus if you like Soler's skill set Eloy Jiminez is likely 2 years away and looks good. I don't think the Cubs have the goods to pick up Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez but a package headed by Soler and including some of the youngsters in the minors could probably net a Teheran, Carrasco or Salazar all of whom have surfaced in trade conversations in the past and all of whom will probably be on the market in July.

Diehardfan · May 2, 2016

Parade_Rain said:
No, but eventually he will be the one going. The writing is on the wall, IMHO.

No doubt. But now is not the time. When the Cub starters show that they are not good enough to take them where they want to go...then you re-evaluate your options. At this point in time, I've seen nothing to make me think they can't do the job.

Omeletpants · May 2, 2016

Knowing the Cubs want to trade him, what is the value of Soler on the market given his limitations?

TC in Mississippi · May 2, 2016

Omeletpants said:
Knowing the Cubs want to trade him, what is the value of Soler on the market given his limitations?

He still has a pretty high ceiling and that bat is always going to be valuable. His floor is probably as a 4th OF so the risk to an acquiring team isn't huge.

SilenceS · May 2, 2016

Diehardfan said:
Would you feel the same if Fowler or Heyward pulled a hammy or worst case scenario...blew out a knee?

Would you feel the same if Arrieta blew out his arm?

Omeletpants · May 2, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
He still has a pretty high ceiling and that bat is always going to be valuable. His floor is probably as a 4th OF so the risk to an acquiring team isn't huge.

Glad you see him with better potential. I look at him and see a below average defender and power hitter that won't have a high average or many HRs. Hope we can get something for him at the right time

DanTown · May 2, 2016

Soler is strange to me. The Cubs have clearly wanted him to be a better hitter both in terms of power and in terms of walk rate and you see the change in his approach: K rate is down from 30% to a passable 23.2% and his walk rate is up from 7.9% to 11.6%. Much like Russell, he has a horrific BABIP (.214) and he's drastically reduced his ground ball rate and line drive rate (42.3%/27.8% last year to 34.1%/20.3%) with a HUGE increase in flyball rate (29.8% to 45.5%). Obviously hitting fly balls in April (especially in Wrigley) is a dangerous way to make a living.

The peripheral numbers are all what the Cubs want from Jorge. There are two numbers that really stick out for me in evaluating his hitting so far: he's only making contact on 76.8% of strikes thrown inside the zone and his hard hit percentage went from the upper 30s to the upper 20s. Those two things tell me he's just not seeing and hitting the ball as well as you'd like even though he's added more lift to his swing plane.

If the Cubs trade Soler, if it's for value than that's fine but I think he's made good changes to his swing+approach and it's worth seeing if Soler warms up when the weather does. I don't see his trade value getting much less than now and it's possible he greatly improves it. I really think you'll have a better judge of what Soler can be in June/July.

Also, the Russell conversation is incredibly stupid. There is literally nothing in his advanced hitting stats nor is there anything in the eye test that indicates struggles at the plate. He's had bad BABIP luck, that's about it.

DanTown · May 2, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
Injuries are a bitch and depth is always needed but by all accounts Almora is ready so that mitigates the risk. I really believe this team needs one more starter before making a playoff run and moving Soler will make sense at that time. Plus if you like Soler's skill set Eloy Jiminez is likely 2 years away and looks good. I don't think the Cubs have the goods to pick up Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez but a package headed by Soler and including some of the youngsters in the minors could probably net a Teheran, Carrasco or Salazar all of whom have surfaced in trade conversations in the past and all of whom will probably be on the market in July.

Now we're forgetting where Soler was a prospect because Soler was a top 50 MLB prospect by any major top 100 lists at ages 21-23. While I like the Cubs future guys, the only guys who project to be that kind of hitting prospect are maybe Happ and Torres.

And beyond the rankings, Soler absolutely crushed minor league pitching at every stage of his development better than any other Cub, including Bryant and Schwarber when you account for age.

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