Trade deadline/rumors

Omeletpants said:

Just read this:

One evaluator with knowledge of the Yankees' interest fully expects that the team will tell the Cubs that if they want Miller, they will have to part with young hitter Kyle Schwarber -- and if the Cubs say no, the Yankees can simply move on to conversations with other contenders who are interested in the left-hander.

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I saw this too. Trading what could potentially be one of the best bats in the game for a reliever is insane. What's interesting is that their asking price from SF is allegedly Christian Arroyo and RHP Tyler Beede the #1 and #2 prospects in their organization. When you look at what Ken Giles was traded for this isn't a surprise but it is crazy. This is why I've been pretty consistent in saying Miller is not an option.

The Yankees are in position to run an extreme seller's market with Miller, a difference-making reliever: Since the start of 2014, Miller has struck out 276 of the 639 batters he has faced in the regular season and playoffs, allowing just 85 hits and 41 walks in 166 innings.

TC in Mississippi said:

I saw this too. Trading what could potentially be one of the best bats in the game for a reliever is insane. What's interesting is that their asking price from SF is allegedly Christian Arroyo and RHP Tyler Beede the #1 and #2 prospects in their organization. When you look at what Ken Giles was traded for this isn't a surprise but it is crazy. This is why I've been pretty consistent in saying Miller is not an option.

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Some of the clowns here have been saying that Theo is going to take advantage of Cashman and steal Miller. They think the Yankees will take AA propects

Omeletpants said:

Some of the clowns here have been saying that Theo is going to take advantage of Cashman and steal Miller. They think the Yankees will take AA propects

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I know and I've been saying the cost would be too high from the start.

Omeletpants said:

The Yankees are in position to run an extreme seller's market with Miller, a difference-making reliever: Since the start of 2014, Miller has struck out 276 of the 639 batters he has faced in the regular season and playoffs, allowing just 85 hits and 41 walks in 166 innings.

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The other thing is that they don't have to trade him if teams don't meet their price. They don't need salary relief and he's signed for 2 more years. They'll have plenty of chances to move him in the offseason or next deadline if they don't do it now. They have all the leverage.

Omeletpants said:

Some of the clowns here have been saying that Theo is going to take advantage of Cashman and steal Miller. They think the Yankees will take AA propects

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The Yankees have been sellers like once or twice in Cashman's reign. He isnt giving up anything for cheap and he may not sell at all if the Yanks are at .500

SilenceS said:

The Yankees have been sellers like once or twice in Cashman's reign. He isnt giving up anything for cheap and he may not sell at all if the Yanks are at .500

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Yet many think Cashman will just accept our throw aways and AA prospects

C'mon guys. We're not new to this.

Asking prices at the beginning of July will be sky high. What actually gets traded will be far from that in most cases.

In some, teams will give a lot.

But not typically for relievers or 2 month rentals.

Mr. Bates said:

Nobody cares about Soler. He's 25, and his baseball reference page rivals War and Peace.

If he's so great - why doesn't he have any recognizable MLB numbers by now?

Otherwise, you Cub fans needs to get with reality and realize nobody wants him/gives a shit about him.

Soler for Chapman...

Get real.

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Why does this seem so absurd? Chapman is a free agent after this season so you're basically renting his arm for 3-4 months for a pretty hefty price tag. A starting everyday outfielder is not something many teams have in abundance but the Cubs do. So I think Soler for Chapman would be more than doable but I kind of doubt Epstein will pull the trigger. Soler is a proven player. Every trade I have seen has a couple of prospects for Chapman so Soler would be more than the Yankees are asking for and would likely be happy to do it once they are eliminated from contention which should be any day now...

TL1961 said:

C'mon guys. We're not new to this.

Asking prices at the beginning of July will be sky high. What actually gets traded will be far from that in most cases.

In some, teams will give a lot.

But not typically for relievers or 2 month rentals.

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No of course not but this case is unique in terms of the fact that they have no pressing need to move him. At all. He's not declining and they don't need salary relief. My guess, again, is that someone either gets stupid and agrees to a silly price or he stays put.

TC in Mississippi said:

I saw this too. Trading what could potentially be one of the best bats in the game for a reliever is insane. What's interesting is that their asking price from SF is allegedly Christian Arroyo and RHP Tyler Beede the #1 and #2 prospects in their organization. When you look at what Ken Giles was traded for this isn't a surprise but it is crazy. This is why I've been pretty consistent in saying Miller is not an option.

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The Yankees will do this to every team until they all say "hell no" and come back to reality. All they're getting for Chapman is a couple of mid level prospects. Miller is a different story and I would expect any team looking to land him would have to give up a quality hitter but not Schwarber. The Cubs would be crazy to send Schwarber to the Yankees for Miller because he can be had for much less.

Soler for Miller?

wickerkat said:

Soler for Miller?

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The Yankees would laugh at that offer

Omeletpants said:

The Yankees would laugh at that offer

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Probably just as big a laugh as Theo is getting over Miller for Schwarber.

I honestly don't get why people are so enthralled with Miller to begin with. Ok he's a good reliever. Do you know how he became a reliever? Once upon a time the batshit crazy Florida Marlins traded for him, Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin and Mike Rabelo in exchange for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis going to Detroit. He then spent 3 ineffective years as a starter with Florida. He was a top 15ish prospect in the game at the time(as was Maybin). 3 years later in 2010 the red sox traded Dustin Richardson for him. Richardson to the best of my knowledge wasn't a big prospect. After that the sox sent Miller to the minors and rebuilt him as a reliever.

For me anyways the take away in that story isn't that this front office loves Miller. The take away is that this front office loves rebuilding failed high profile pitchers. We've already seen this with Arrieta. They just signed Matusz to a minor league deal. Aaron Crow is also on a minor league deal. It's far more likely in my eyes they go that route and pick up a lessor piece like say Frenando Rodney again.

beckdawg said:

I honestly don't get why people are so enthralled with Miller to begin with. Ok he's a good reliever. Do you know how he became a reliever? Once upon a time the batshit crazy Florida Marlins traded for him, Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin and Mike Rabelo in exchange for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis going to Detroit. He then spent 3 ineffective years as a starter with Florida. He was a top 15ish prospect in the game at the time(as was Maybin). 3 years later in 2010 the red sox traded Dustin Richardson for him. Richardson to the best of my knowledge wasn't a big prospect. After that the sox sent Miller to the minors and rebuilt him as a reliever.

For me anyways the take away in that story isn't that this front office loves Miller. The take away is that this front office loves rebuilding failed high profile pitchers. We've already seen this with Arrieta. They just signed Matusz to a minor league deal. Aaron Crow is also on a minor league deal. It's far more likely in my eyes they go that route and pick up a lessor piece like say Frenando Rodney again.

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Andrew Miller fWAR by year

2016 - 1.5 in 33 innings
2015 - 2.0 in 61 innings
2014 - 2.2 in 63 innings

This guy is either the best or second best pitcher in baseball per inning this year with Kershaw being the only guy who can match that. To call him a "good reliever" would be like calling Mike Trout a "good hitter". If you want to argue that relievers are overrated that's one thing but to question how good Miller is doesn't make any sense.

Unless you think something is going to regress dramatically after two+ years, I'm not sure why anyone wouldn't want Miller. And in a playoff series, he's far more likely to sway an outcome than any normal hitter would. In the course of a regular season, Schwarber gives you more value since you're only talking about 70 innings of pitching vs 500 PA; however in a short series the value tips to Miller as you'd rather have seven innings of 1.5 FIP pitching in extremely high leverage situations versus 20ish PA for Schwarber.

The other thing to remember is that the Cubs have the players to replace Schwarber's value (i.e Baez, Soler, Contreras, etc) without them missing a beat where as the Cubs simply do not have a pitcher they can acquire that they have multiple years of control who comes close to Andrew Miller's value.

I wouldn't do it straight up but if I got back a rotation arm for 2017+ (when the Cubs will have a need for cheap arms to offset a new Arrieta or a new Arrieta replacement deal), I'd do the deal.

DanTown said:

Andrew Miller fWAR by year

2016 - 1.5 in 33 innings
2015 - 2.0 in 61 innings
2014 - 2.2 in 63 innings

This guy is either the best or second best pitcher in baseball per inning this year with Kershaw being the only guy who can match that. To call him a "good reliever" would be like calling Mike Trout a "good hitter". If you want to argue that relievers are overrated that's one thing but to question how good Miller is doesn't make any sense.

Unless you think something is going to regress dramatically after two+ years, I'm not sure why anyone wouldn't want Miller. And in a playoff series, he's far more likely to sway an outcome than any normal hitter would. In the course of a regular season, Schwarber gives you more value since you're only talking about 70 innings of pitching vs 500 PA; however in a short series the value tips to Miller as you'd rather have seven innings of 1.5 FIP pitching in extremely high leverage situations versus 20ish PA for Schwarber.

The other thing to remember is that the Cubs have the players to replace Schwarber's value (i.e Baez, Soler, Contreras, etc) without them missing a beat where as the Cubs simply do not have a pitcher they can acquire that they have multiple years of control who comes close to Andrew Miller's value.

I wouldn't do it straight up but if I got back a rotation arm for 2017+ (when the Cubs will have a need for cheap arms to offset a new Arrieta or a new Arrieta replacement deal), I'd do the deal.

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No one was questioning whether or not he was good. If you want to call him a great reliever fine. That's really not the point. He's not even the best reliever in the league since 2013 when he started being a dominant reliever. Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Craig Kimbrel, and Mark Melancon all have more fWAR. There's 17 relievers above 4 fWAR during that time period and I would argue the difference between him and say Ken Giles who's the worst on that list is negligible. My point is what he offers isn't a uniquely rare thing. And if you look at the names of those 17 relievers a lot of them have been failed starters built into great relievers. The cubs have arguably the best pitching coach in the majors who has shown the ability to bring out the best talent in pitchers. I can literally list a dozen or so names of guys who've pitched better under Bosio than they have any where else in their career. I'd much rather see them create their own Andrew Miller or Zach Briton than deal a ton of prospect value and the money on Miller.

I just don't agree with the logic that some people have where there's going to be a situation that you have to have him in the playoffs. They may get in a jam in the playoffs and they very well might not. It's also entirely plausible they blow through their bullpen in a game like last night and a reliever isn't available the next day when you actually need them. You just don't know. Miller would have done nothing last year vs the Mets.

On top of that, people seemingly haven't even tried to address the elephant in the room that is how Maddon used Richard. Richard faced lefties 57% of the time. Wood was at 52% and no one else was even above 35%. If the idea is that you replace a bad lefty specialist in Richards with Miller then that is faulty logic. If you use Miller to get 1 guy out suddenly all that value he provided over the past 3.5 years is wasted. You simply don't use a guy like Miller to get 1 out. If he were on the cubs I'd imagine he takes Strops role and Strop moves down to the 7th. But then that leaves you with 1 guy vs lefties in Wood who also happens to be your best long relief guy.

People are thinking in general terms that Miller is a good reliever so that makes the bullpen better. What they aren't thinking about is how an actual bullpen functions. You generally have an 8th and a 9th inning guy which in our case is Strop and Rondon. A lot of teams also have a 7th inning guy. That used to be Grimm but he's been shitty this year. You then usually have 2 guys for righties and 2 for lefties. Cahill and Warren/Edwards have been the guys vs righties. Wood and Richard were the guys vs lefties. As such, the only way in my eyes Miller even makes sense is if you are dealing for him to replace Grimm essentially by moving Strop to the 7th inning and him the 8th. But that doesn't address the biggest issue in the bullpen which is the need for a better lefty specialist to take Richard's role.

As much as we all love Schwarber he doesn't fit into the Maddon mold of position flexibility. It's LF or nothing and he will come out in the 7th inning for defense. With so many alternatives what is his real value to the Cubs?

Not saying who he would be traded for but dont be surprised if he is traded.

So, if a guy plays only LF he has no value?

TL1961 said:

So, if a guy plays only LF he has no value?

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He has less value when you have Contreras, Bryant, Szczr, Almora, Soler that can play LF