Maybe We Should Stand Still at the Dead Line

We're a good team but the past 55 games, we've been playing .500 ball. Our bullpen is in disarray, our starting pitching has fallen off a cliff, and we have serious issues with situational hitting/RISP. I know we're missing some guys (the loss of Fowler has been huge), but I'm starting to think we'd have to mortgage our future to fill all our holes.

Realistically, we need at least two bullpen arms -- one lefty and one end of the game shut down guy (either 8th or 9th inning). Does anyone have faith in Strop/Rondon being World Series caliber finishers? While I have faith in Lackey, Lester and Hendricks -- I have serious concerns about Arrieta and Hammel. I have no idea whats happened to Arrieta but his decline has been stunning.

And as for hitting, I'm very impressed with our young guys (particularly Bryant and Russell) -- but collectively we can't ever seem to get key hits in critical moments. We're just so freaking young -- trotting out Bryant, Russell, Baez, Contreras, Soler, etc. I just think there is a possibility we're still 1-2 years away and mortgaging the future to acquire so much pitching help -- does it really make sense?

We'd have to pony up half our farm system. I don't know, I'm thinking we do what we did last summer and just acquire minor help for inconsequential pieces. We're set to contend for the next 5-10 years, and I'd hate to see us do something to jeopardize it in a year when I don't think we're quite ready.

But can you imagine in 2-3 years when Russell, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez and Conteras are seasoned? It's gonna be an awesome few years for us.

DJMoore_is_fat said:

We're a good team but the past 55 games, we've been playing .500 ball. Our bullpen is in disarray, our starting pitching has fallen off a cliff, and we have serious issues with situational hitting/RISP. I know we're missing some guys (the loss of Fowler has been huge), but I'm starting to think we'd have to mortgage our future to fill all our holes.

Realistically, we need at least two bullpen arms -- one lefty and one end of the game shut down guy (either 8th or 9th inning). Does anyone have faith in Strop/Rondon being World Series caliber finishers? While I have faith in Lackey, Lester and Hendricks -- I have serious concerns about Arrieta and Hammel. I have no idea whats happened to Arrieta but his decline has been stunning.

And as for hitting, I'm very impressed with our young guys (particularly Bryant and Russell) -- but collectively we can't ever seem to get key hits in critical moments. We're just so freaking young -- trotting out Bryant, Russell, Baez, Contreras, Soler, etc. I just think there is a possibility we're still 1-2 years away and mortgaging the future to acquire so much pitching help -- does it really make sense?

We'd have to pony up half our farm system. I don't know, I'm thinking we do what we did last summer and just acquire minor help for inconsequential pieces. We're set to contend for the next 5-10 years, and I'd hate to see us do something to jeopardize it in a year when I don't think we're quite ready.

But can you imagine in 2-3 years when Russell, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez and Conteras are seasoned? It's gonna be an awesome few years for us.

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Yes I have faith in Strop and Rondon as the back end of the bullpen. I also like what we've seen from Carl Edwards Jr. They need a lefty arm for the pen and while I hope they pull off a move for Miller I still think there are other options that won't cost quite so much. I also have concerns over Arrieta but he's basically gone from the best in the business to an average TOR starter. Maybe he ends up as #2 to Lester in the playoffs. I don't find any despair there. Hammel I have concerns with but he did pitch well last night despite the HR. For now I still believe he could start a game 4 in the playoffs. I don't have that same faith in Hendricks because of his style for pitching and need for pinpoint command but I know others do.

The team is not firing on all cylinders right now and I'm not sure why but there is too much talent for me to believe that they will not turn it around and be able to make a solid playoff run. Russell is improving daily as is Baez. Contreras is a guy that should be capable of playing the playoffs after a few months of experience. If you believe in teh concept of regression to the mean Heyward is due to have a very hot stretch. I don't believe massive trades are necessary to fix this team. A few holes and some serious self examination should do it. I believe that in a month the landscape will look very different.

DJMoore_is_fat said:

We're a good team but the past 55 games, we've been playing .500 ball. Our bullpen is in disarray, our starting pitching has fallen off a cliff, and we have serious issues with situational hitting/RISP. I know we're missing some guys (the loss of Fowler has been huge), but I'm starting to think we'd have to mortgage our future to fill all our holes.


Realistically, we need at least two bullpen arms -- one lefty and one end of the game shut down guy (either 8th or 9th inning). Does anyone have faith in Strop/Rondon being World Series caliber finishers? While I have faith in Lackey, Lester and Hendricks -- I have serious concerns about Arrieta and Hammel. I have no idea whats happened to Arrieta but his decline has been stunning.


And as for hitting, I'm very impressed with our young guys (particularly Bryant and Russell) -- but collectively we can't ever seem to get key hits in critical moments. We're just so freaking young -- trotting out Bryant, Russell, Baez, Contreras, Soler, etc. I just think there is a possibility we're still 1-2 years away and mortgaging the future to acquire so much pitching help -- does it really make sense?


We'd have to pony up half our farm system. I don't know, I'm thinking we do what we did last summer and just acquire minor help for inconsequential pieces. We're set to contend for the next 5-10 years, and I'd hate to see us do something to jeopardize it in a year when I don't think we're quite ready.

But can you imagine in 2-3 years when Russell, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez and Conteras are seasoned? It's gonna be an awesome few years for us.

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55 games of .500 ball is more like 25 games of under .500 ball. It's a rough stretch. Everyone has them. Better to have it now than in August/September.

We have about 3 guys hitting out of their natural spot since Fowler went down. Let's reserve judgement until Fowler & Soler come back. We're batting several hitters out of postion, and lacking serious depth right now because of it.

I don't think we need to mortgage the future to acquire pitching help. We have so many trade chips that are blocked by guys who are already blocked by guys. Look at Almora. He's blocked by Fowler currently. Judging by the offensive nose dive without Fowler, I think we may try to resign him this offseason. Then you have other guys that are blocked. Jaimer Candelario is never going to be a starter for the Chicago Cubs. Ian Happ is blocked up the middle and in the outfield currently. Vogelbach is blocked. Torres is several years away, but might be able to force his way in (i.e. Baez). None of those guys factor into the Chicago Cubs' future, unless you consider being traded in another year as the future.

Lester is not going to pitch better with age. Arrieta's prime is now (and he's regressing to being just an ace, but not an all-time great). Lackey is Lackey. Hendricks is trending up. Hammel is regressing at 90 IP, per usual.

The team was hitting just fine when everyone was settled in their spots behind Fowler. There's no reason to believe we won't see an improvement. Addison Russell has been on fire since June. Zobrist hits in a different spot every day, but is a dominant #2 hitter. No shock he's struggled with a different lineup spot every day. Willson looks to be a huge upgrade over Montero in every facet of the game except pitch framing. I don't get why people think the offense is done for. Ebbs and flows happen. It's baseball.

We have a healthy lead in the division with 1 glaring issue that Theo can tend to. That's the bullpen. There are options out there (Abad/McGee?) that may be able to solve some of our LOOGY woes. We do need a swing-and-miss pitcher to slot in the 8th at the very least. I'd like to see Chapman, as he'd cost us less. But you technically aren't losing a guy if he's never going to see the field for you anyways. People talk about mortgaging the future. To be honest, about 11 of the 13 position players are here and here to stay.

There is no better time to go for it than now. We have a 8 game division lead and are 1 game out of home field in the NL playoffs. Trade away Vogelbach/Happ/etc...and see what it gets you in the reliever market. The Yankees will realize that they aren't getting Soler/Schwarber/Baez for Miller and that what we can still offer them will outweigh what they'll get from the Giants/Rangers farm systems (unless the Rangers want to move Gallo for Miller).

I don't think people realize how big of a loss Fowler was. Really shook up the lineup.

Mix in some bullpen struggles and it's been a disaster.

zack54attack said:

I don't think people realize how big of a loss Fowler was. Really shook up the lineup.

Mix in some bullpen struggles and it's been a disaster.

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Look at the '05 Sox. Scott Podsednik was literally the hero of that offense. Made EVERYTHING go. Just because Fowler isn't a .280 35 100 guy doesn't mean he isn't one of the most important bats in the lineup. Rizzo and Bryant are 30/100 guys without Fowler getting on in front of them. Food for thought.

ZAN said:

55 games of .500 ball is more like 25 games of under .500 ball. It's a rough stretch. Everyone has them. Better to have it now than in August/September.

We have about 3 guys hitting out of their natural spot since Fowler went down. Let's reserve judgement until Fowler & Soler come back. We're batting several hitters out of postion, and lacking serious depth right now because of it.

I don't think we need to mortgage the future to acquire pitching help. We have so many trade chips that are blocked by guys who are already blocked by guys. Look at Almora. He's blocked by Fowler currently. Judging by the offensive nose dive without Fowler, I think we may try to resign him this offseason. Then you have other guys that are blocked. Jaimer Candelario is never going to be a starter for the Chicago Cubs. Ian Happ is blocked up the middle and in the outfield currently. Vogelbach is blocked. Torres is several years away, but might be able to force his way in (i.e. Baez). None of those guys factor into the Chicago Cubs' future, unless you consider being traded in another year as the future.

Lester is not going to pitch better with age. Arrieta's prime is now (and he's regressing to being just an ace, but not an all-time great). Lackey is Lackey. Hendricks is trending up. Hammel is regressing at 90 IP, per usual.

The team was hitting just fine when everyone was settled in their spots behind Fowler. There's no reason to believe we won't see an improvement. Addison Russell has been on fire since June. Zobrist hits in a different spot every day, but is a dominant #2 hitter. No shock he's struggled with a different lineup spot every day. Willson looks to be a huge upgrade over Montero in every facet of the game except pitch framing. I don't get why people think the offense is done for. Ebbs and flows happen. It's baseball.

We have a healthy lead in the division with 1 glaring issue that Theo can tend to. That's the bullpen. There are options out there (Abad/McGee?) that may be able to solve some of our LOOGY woes. We do need a swing-and-miss pitcher to slot in the 8th at the very least. I'd like to see Chapman, as he'd cost us less. But you technically aren't losing a guy if he's never going to see the field for you anyways. People talk about mortgaging the future. To be honest, about 11 of the 13 position players are here and here to stay.

There is no better time to go for it than now. We have a 8 game division lead and are 1 game out of home field in the NL playoffs. Trade away Vogelbach/Happ/etc...and see what it gets you in the reliever market. The Yankees will realize that they aren't getting Soler/Schwarber/Baez for Miller and that what we can still offer them will outweigh what they'll get from the Giants/Rangers farm systems (unless the Rangers want to move Gallo for Miller).

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If I were to guess I think Miller will go to SF was some combination of prospects. From them the Yankees are said to want their number 1 prospect in SS Christian Arroyo and their number 2 in RHP Tyler Beede. They won't get both but I think SF might let Arroyo go in that trade and if they were to include RHP Phil Bickford, who has a 98mph 4 seam fastball, instead of Beede who they love, that will probably get it done. I don't see how the Cubs have anything to match up with that without Schwarber who I agree they won't move. Now if SF doesn't offer a package like that there might be a chance, I just the feeling they will.

TC in Mississippi said:

If I were to guess I think Miller will go to SF was some combination of prospects. From them the Yankees are said to want their number 1 prospect in SS Christian Arroyo and their number 2 in RHP Tyler Beede. They won't get both but I think SF might let Arroyo go in that trade and if they were to include RHP Phil Bickford, who has a 98mph 4 seam fastball, instead of Beede who they love, that will probably get it done. I don't see how the Cubs have anything to match up with that without Schwarber who I agree they won't move. Now if SF doesn't offer a package like that there might be a chance, I just the feeling they will.

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Romo/Miller/Casilla is kind of terrifying to be honest.

Off-Topic.

The Braves used a lefty who sat at 94-96 with a great slider in the 10th inning last night.
The Braves used a righty who's low pitch velocity was in the 11th 101mph.

Those are their end of the bullpen dudes?

Why do other teams grow these arms on trees but we can't?

(It's rhetorical -- I know it's draft philosophy...but damn...every bullpen we've seen for the last month just pumps gas and our team doesn't handle velocity well outside TLS and Zobrist)

ZAN said:

There is no better time to go for it than now. We have a 8 game division lead and are 1 game out of home field in the NL playoffs. Trade away Vogelbach/Happ/etc...and see what it gets you in the reliever market. The Yankees will realize that they aren't getting Soler/Schwarber/Baez for Miller and that what we can still offer them will outweigh what they'll get from the Giants/Rangers farm systems (unless the Rangers want to move Gallo for Miller).

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It's not about what we offer but other teams with the same need. Cashman isnt married to the Cubs

People keep pointing to the loss of Fowler, and I agree it's been a big loss -- but what does that have to do with the struggles of our bullpen and starting staff? With or with out Fowler, we should have won several games over the past few weeks but our bullpen blew it.

Jesse Rodgers was on ESPN today and said getting swept by the Pirates would be catastrophic. The Pirates would be 5.5 games behind at that point, and it could devastate us in a way that would result in us missing the playoffs. If we pony up Torres, Happ and Vogelbach for Andrew Miller -- is he single handedly saving our season? I don't know.....I've seen enough the past month to know we're really, really young and have far too many unreliable pitchers.

Baez, Bryant, Contreras, Soler, Russell, Schwarber -- none of these guys have even played one full season yet. Well, Soler, but he gets hurt so much.

I want to have a 5-10 year window, not a 2-3 year window. We're going to be amazing and break through at least once -- I just don't think its this year. Not with that many young guys and such a shaky bullpen.

DJMoore_is_fat said:

People keep pointing to the loss of Fowler, and I agree it's been a big loss -- but what does that have to do with the struggles of our bullpen and starting staff? With or with out Fowler, we should have won several games over the past few weeks but our bullpen blew it.

Jesse Rodgers was on ESPN today and said getting swept by the Pirates would be catastrophic. The Pirates would be 5.5 games behind at that point, and it could devastate us in a way that would result in us missing the playoffs. If we pony up Torres, Happ and Vogelbach for Andrew Miller -- is he single handedly saving our season? I don't know.....I've seen enough the past month to know we're really, really young and have far too many unreliable pitchers.

Baez, Bryant, Contreras, Soler, Russell, Schwarber -- none of these guys have even played one full season yet. Well, Soler, but he gets hurt so much.

I want to have a 5-10 year window, not a 2-3 year window. We're going to be amazing and break through at least once -- I just don't think its this year. Not with that many young guys and such a shaky bullpen.

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Losing Fowler hurt but not to where it should be the reason their in this spin.
They had plenty of guys getting on base but noone getting them in, for most of those losses.

Getting swept this weekend by the pirates could have an effect mentally on the kids and cause them to press a little in second half.

Just my opinion on the window thing and not trading prospects. ..
Most of these position players should be in their prime years 5-10 yrs from now.
I wouldn't worry about trading near ready prospects for pieces that can help you compete and win the next 2-3 yrs. Most of them are blocked


One thing I have always heard players, managers, coaches, say over the years.
When a GM/owner (money) pulls off a BIG trade and brings in a player or two , it sends a positive message to the rest of the team that they believe in the team and are going all in to win .
They as players feed off of that and kick it up an extra gear.




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ESPN Stats & Info Verified account ‏@ESPNStatsInfo 12h12 hours ago

The loss for the Cubs snaps a 93-game win streak when leading entering the 9th inning, dating back to last season


This is why I laugh at people's memory.

DJMoore_is_fat said:

People keep pointing to the loss of Fowler, and I agree it's been a big loss -- but what does that have to do with the struggles of our bullpen and starting staff? With or with out Fowler, we should have won several games over the past few weeks but our bullpen blew it.

Jesse Rodgers was on ESPN today and said getting swept by the Pirates would be catastrophic. The Pirates would be 5.5 games behind at that point, and it could devastate us in a way that would result in us missing the playoffs. If we pony up Torres, Happ and Vogelbach for Andrew Miller -- is he single handedly saving our season? I don't know.....I've seen enough the past month to know we're really, really young and have far too many unreliable pitchers.

Baez, Bryant, Contreras, Soler, Russell, Schwarber -- none of these guys have even played one full season yet. Well, Soler, but he gets hurt so much.

I want to have a 5-10 year window, not a 2-3 year window. We're going to be amazing and break through at least once -- I just don't think its this year. Not with that many young guys and such a shaky bullpen.

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If we aren't trading away from our current core (Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Willson, Baez, Soler, Schwarber, Almora, Heyward, Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, Strop, Rondon) - what gives you pause about losing a 5-10 year window? Again...these guys are prospects for a reason. Cub fans have become rather jaded about prospect success. We have gotten fat and spoiled off of hitting on literally everyone that has been promoted. Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Russell, Soler, Schwarber...they've all had immediate impact and have given few reasons to think they won't be impact baseball players. If that is the case, they ARE the window. Not unknowns like Happ/Vogelbach/Torres. Those guys don't play for us currently and probably won't due to being blocked by players who we have under contract and are under control on relatively cheap contracts.


If Torres, Happ, and Vogelbach gets you Andrew Miller then you do it and don't look back. Torres is several years away and at a position(s) where we have other young players producing with big futures projected. Same with Happ/Vogelbach (who happen to be closer to their ETA than Torres).

Our bullpen sucked when Fowler was healthy. They've had a collective ERA (with the only bright spots being Rondon/Strop) over 5.00 since mid May. Nothing there has changed. Strop and Rondon are basically the same guys they were in May, which is fine. We need someone else to go with them (if not be the closer and slot those two back). The rest is semantics. We are trying out guys (Peralta failure, CJ Edwards now getting high leverage situations and looking okay) to see HOW MANY arms we add this month.

As for the starters, anyone could tell you that they weren't going to pitch a full run better than the 2nd best rotation in baseball for the whole year. Did you really expect that? Theo said that the need was there to gauge the SP market even over a month ago when we were clicking.

You're fretting about things that a bunch of blow hards on a message board (myself included) can see plain as day. I'm willing to guess Theo and the scouting department have kicked the tires on what it would take to get Rich Hill/Gray/etc...already.

It's hard to make significant trades on 7-8-2016 when you have everyone else in baseball stuck in mediocrity and trying to figure out if they are going to be buyers and sellers. The Yankees are basically .500 right now. In 3 weeks they will know what they want to do. Until then, the ball is in their court unless we say the magic word (Schwarber)...which we won't say it. They want all the suitors bidding against each other & that time won't come until about July 23rd. The Twins are definitely sellers and haven't moved Abad yet. That's all that you need to see. The bidding hasn't even started. We have to enjoy the ASB, get healthy, and hopefully start hitting the ball and take our bullpen out of the equation for the next 2-3 weeks until teams are willing to deal guys that can help us. There's nothing Theo can do until another GM is ready to deal.

Omeletpants said:

It's not about what we offer but other teams with the same need. Cashman isnt married to the Cubs

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Nope, he's not. The Giants may have similar needs. The Rangers may have similar needs. But just because they aren't getting Schwarber doesn't mean we can't put together a package that beats Beede/Arroyo by floating a combination of our "2nd tier guys that would be first tier in 95% of other organizations" -- i.e. Vogelbach, Torres, Happ, Underwood, Candelario, Cease, Johnson, Jiminez. Getting the first 3 and 1 of the other names I mentioned, would be a HELL of a haul for an Andrew Miller.

TC in Mississippi said:

I don't have that same faith in Hendricks because of his style for pitching and need for pinpoint command but I know others do.

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I see this commonly brought up with regard to Hendricks and I don't really agree with the logic. On his career to give a large sample size, batters make contact with his pitches 81.0% of the time. To be more granular, that's 89.1% on pitches in the zone and 64.8% outside the zone. In other words, he's not pitching around batters. He's pitching to contact unless he throws his curve/change up out of the zone for strike outs.

My counter argument to this would be it's fairly little to do with command almost entirely based on the sink on his sinker. He throws that and his cutter predominantly for strikes. On his career, batters are hitting .231/.311/.368 with a 96 wRC+ vs his cutter. So, it is a slightly better than average pitch. They are hitting .279/.333/.399 with a 111 vs his sinker. So, that's slightly worse than average and it's also the pitch he throws the most. With that being said if we just look at 2016, his sinker is .272/.320/.373 with a 96 wRC+ and his cutter is .167/.268/.333 with a 72 wRC+. I'm not a pitching coach but the fact he's throwing the cutter more tells me that part of his problem previously was they knew the sinker was coming so being able to use the cutter too helps off set that.

That's not to say command isn't important for Hendricks because it is for any pitcher. But when Hendricks gets hurt it's usually because there's not enough sink on his sinker. on his career he has a 57.6% ground ball rate on that to go with the above averages. His HR/FB rate is by far the highest on that pitch at 14.3%. Nothing else is above 10.5%. And by in large that's the issue with his pitch. Batters also historically have a 26.2% line drive rate on it.

Now perhaps that's splitting hairs because you could say that lack of movement and command are tied together in which case, sure. All I was going for here really was that the belief that Hendricks pitches around people isn't really true. He largely lives in the zone and tries to get ground balls. This heat map from fangraphs illustrates it well. He lives in the bottom corner of the zone. Anything not down is usually a bad sign for him illustrated by this.

ZAN said:

Nope, he's not. The Giants may have similar needs. The Rangers may have similar needs. But just because they aren't getting Schwarber doesn't mean we can't put together a package that beats Beede/Arroyo by floating a combination of our "2nd tier guys that would be first tier in 95% of other organizations" -- i.e. Vogelbach, Torres, Happ, Underwood, Candelario, Cease, Johnson, Jiminez. Getting the first 3 and 1 of the other names I mentioned, would be a HELL of a haul for an Andrew Miller.

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Miller is Cashman's big chip. He is not doing this deal without walking away with a starter. He doesnt want our projects. For a deal to work it needs to work for both sides

Baez, Schwarber or our SS is what he will want

Omeletpants said:

Miller is Cashman's big chip. He is not doing this deal without walking away with a starter. He doesnt want our projects. For a deal to work it needs to work for both sides

Baez, Schwarber or our SS is what he will want

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I guess we will find out.

SilenceS said:

ESPN Stats & Info Verified account ‏@ESPNStatsInfo 12h12 hours ago

The loss for the Cubs snaps a 93-game win streak when leading entering the 9th inning, dating back to last season


This is why I laugh at people's memory.

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Let me ask you a question. After Warren's solid start against the Reds, do you think we would have won if Cahil didn't come out of the bullpen to serve up a 3-run homer?

Yeah, I don't think Torres, Happ and Vogelbach gets us Miller. Hope I'm wrong though.

DJMoore_is_fat said:

Let me ask you a question. After Warren's solid start against the Reds, do you think we would have won if Cahil didn't come out of the bullpen to serve up a 3-run homer?

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I'll answer that for you. The answer is yes.

But people tend to forget that the guys that bridge from your starter to your setup/closer, while not needed every day, are a huge part of the success of the team. We currently don't have anyone that can come into the game in the 6th or 7th and do that job. But to some fans, that stuff isn't important.

It's no surprise that the current state of the Cubs is the way it is. Our starters went the first 2 months of the year into the 7th inning with a ton of run support.

Now we have a few injuries to the lineup which means less run support.
Our starters aren't going as deep into games which means more 6th and 7th inning bullpen games.

Less run support + more 6th/7th inning bullpen games = problems.

Theo can make a move to fix those problems. It amazes me that people seem to think he's incapable of acquiring a bullpen arm or two after everything else he's done.