IST: Cubs vs Rangers

TL1961 · Jul 15, 2016

Bigfoot said:
Ryan Dempster

Ryan Dempster, unfortunately, does an impersonation not of Harry Caray, but of Will Farrell imitating Harry Caray. And Farrell's impression is awful.

cubsmann · Jul 15, 2016

Man Will Farrell's impression of Harry Carry is funny as shit! I thought that was who it was when I turned the game back on in the bottom of the seventh. Cubs win big. A good start to the second half. Now we need a sweep and to sweep the Mets as payback for NY.

chibears55 · Jul 15, 2016

Anyone else besides me think as of now Hendricks should be the no.3 starter behind Arrieta and Lester come playoff.

I think he way ahead of both Lackey and Hammel at this point

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

beckdawg · Jul 15, 2016

chibears55 said:
Anyone else besides me think as of now Hendricks should be the no.3 starter behind Arrieta and Lester come playoff.

I think he way ahead of both Lackey and Hammel at this point

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

I've said since last year I thought Hendricks was a #3 quality starter. Given how he's pitched this year you could argue he's better than that. However, if the question is who starts game 3 in the playoffs Lackey or Hendricks.... eh.... i'm probably siding with Lackey. I would be sort of surprised if Hammel starts in the playoffs. But I think you can argue for Lackey's experience and incidentally Lackey has the best swing and miss stuff on the cubs. His 11.2% outshines Hendricks 9.1% swinging strike rate. That's not to suggest Hendricks is bad but Lester Arreita and Lackey are all capable of going out there and throwing a complete game shut out. I'm not sure I'd put Hendricks there yet. He's more of a really solid 6 innings and then turn it over the the bullpen type.

CSF77 · Jul 15, 2016

Next 2 weeks will dictate how things shake out. What is good is they are matching up with 2 play off level teams and seeing how the starters respond will dictate if they end up dealing for a starter.

CSF77 · Jul 15, 2016

I'll bet that Theo would prefer getting Fowler back and Nathen up and going. That becomes a major boost to the team if everything goes well. At that point you are nit picking. Is Hendricks good enough to pitch a play off game? Is Richard going to be a effective 2nd LH in the pen? Do they need a bat first on the bench? Is Soler that guy or do you deal for a professional hitter?

Those are the questions going ahead. If a starter bottoms out and doesn't bounce back it becomes a over lying issue of just getting to the play offs first.

Diehardfan · Jul 15, 2016

chibears55 said:
Anyone else besides me think as of now Hendricks should be the no.3 starter behind Arrieta and Lester come playoff.

I think he way ahead of both Lackey and Hammel at this point

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

I predicted this was going to happen. It's not a surprise to me. He's the kind of pitcher that makes hitters uncomfortable as you never know what he's gonna throw. The only thing holding him back was his command. That being said...I'd still probably go for the experience factor with Lackey.

http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/showthread.php/76351-The-2016-Prediction-Thread?p=2444387&viewfull=1#post2444387

Diehardfan · Jul 15, 2016

Anyone notice the Card's closer is really having his problems? Rosenthal might not even be their closer anymore. He was brought in tonight in the 7th and walked a guy to fill the bases, beaned the next guy for a run then gave up a two run single. Our bullpen isn't the only one in trouble these days..

BTW...watch out for Miami.

beckdawg · Jul 15, 2016

CSF77 said:
Is Hendricks good enough to pitch a play off game?

How is this a question people are even asking? Over 360 innings in the majors he has a 3.23/3.38 ERA/FIP. Is Hendricks going to go out and dominate a la a complete game shut out? That's incredibly unlikely but there's maybe 20 pitchers in the league who have a realistic shot to do that in any start and that's probably a high estimate. If I were to say is Johnny Cueto good enough to pitch a playoff game people would obviously say yes and that's why he got the big contract off season. Well this is Johnny Cueto

7.46 k/9 2.52 bb/9 0.88 hr/9 .276 BABIP 76.5% LOB% 45.5% ground ball rate 9.8% HR/FB 3.22/3.73/3.81 ERA/FIP/xFIP

And now this is Kyle Hendricks

7.52 k/9 2.13 bb/9 0.73 hr/9 .276 BABIP 72.9% LOB% 50.4% ground ball rate 9.6% HR/FB 3.23/3.38/3.57 ERA/FIP/xFIP

Those are career marks for both. People seriously need to get over "lack of stuff" and come to the realization that at some point you have to just trust the results. Wainwright has long been the "ace" on the cards and his career marks are 7.56 k/9 2.24 bb/9 3.08/3.14/3.45 ERA/FIP/xFIP. Jordan Zimmermann is 7.29/1.81 and 3.37/3.41/3.65. Grienke is 8.08/2.16 and 3.36/3.32/3.49. I could literally go on and on here. That's not to suggest that either A) Hendricks is a "ace" or B) that Hendricks doesn't have limitations. His biggest limitation is he rarely throws over 100 pitches. But you don't have to be an innings eater to be a good pitcher and even if you are that doesn't mean you are effective in those starts(see Jackson, Edwin).

I get rather frustrated here because everyone and their mother seemingly wanted to include Hendricks in any deal this offseason for better pitching. Before that, everyone called him a fringe rotation guy when I made a topic about how underrated he was last july I believe. As we sit here today, Hendricks has the #3 ERA among starters at 2.41. And this isn't smoke and mirrors. His 27.1% soft contact rate is second only to Tanner Roark and he might actually pass him when the stats update tonight since Roark is 27.2%. I think it is also fair to say he's been the cubs most consistent starter. His worst two outings(@was and @stl) both were 5.1 innings giving up 4. Every start he's gone at least 5.

Sorry to let out a rant like this but I just don't get how he's still seemingly underrated.

TL1961 · Jul 15, 2016

Diehardfan said:
Anyone notice the Card's closer is really having his problems? Rosenthal might not even be their closer anymore. He was brought in tonight in the 7th and walked a guy to fill the bases, beaned the next guy for a run then gave up a two run single. Our bullpen isn't the only one in trouble these days..

BTW...watch out for Miami.

Rosenthal was taken out of the closer role a week or so ago.

Unfortunately, as soon as Miami took the lead they gave up 2 runs, but got another to tie it.

Headed to the bottom of the 9th tied at 6.

Chump edit: I thought the second out was actually the third. Good news, Miami has retaken the lead in the top of the 9th.

TL1961 · Jul 15, 2016

Cards CF misplays a routine fly ball, and it leads to the winning run.

Miami wins it 7-6.

SilenceS · Jul 15, 2016

TL1961 said:
Cards CF misplays a routine fly ball, and it leads to the winning run.

Miami wins it 7-6.

Pirates also loss

TL1961 · Jul 15, 2016

I watched the end of that Pirates game. They played some bad D to lose that.

Cards' D lost their game.

CSF77 · Jul 15, 2016

beckdawg said:
How is this a question people are even asking? Over 360 innings in the majors he has a 3.23/3.38 ERA/FIP. Is Hendricks going to go out and dominate a la a complete game shut out? That's incredibly unlikely but there's maybe 20 pitchers in the league who have a realistic shot to do that in any start and that's probably a high estimate. If I were to say is Johnny Cueto good enough to pitch a playoff game people would obviously say yes and that's why he got the big contract off season. Well this is Johnny Cueto

7.46 k/9 2.52 bb/9 0.88 hr/9 .276 BABIP 76.5% LOB% 45.5% ground ball rate 9.8% HR/FB 3.22/3.73/3.81 ERA/FIP/xFIP

And now this is Kyle Hendricks

7.52 k/9 2.13 bb/9 0.73 hr/9 .276 BABIP 72.9% LOB% 50.4% ground ball rate 9.6% HR/FB 3.23/3.38/3.57 ERA/FIP/xFIP

Those are career marks for both. People seriously need to get over "lack of stuff" and come to the realization that at some point you have to just trust the results. Wainwright has long been the "ace" on the cards and his career marks are 7.56 k/9 2.24 bb/9 3.08/3.14/3.45 ERA/FIP/xFIP. Jordan Zimmermann is 7.29/1.81 and 3.37/3.41/3.65. Grienke is 8.08/2.16 and 3.36/3.32/3.49. I could literally go on and on here. That's not to suggest that either A) Hendricks is a "ace" or B) that Hendricks doesn't have limitations. His biggest limitation is he rarely throws over 100 pitches. But you don't have to be an innings eater to be a good pitcher and even if you are that doesn't mean you are effective in those starts(see Jackson, Edwin).

I get rather frustrated here because everyone and their mother seemingly wanted to include Hendricks in any deal this offseason for better pitching. Before that, everyone called him a fringe rotation guy when I made a topic about how underrated he was last july I believe. As we sit here today, Hendricks has the #3 ERA among starters at 2.41. And this isn't smoke and mirrors. His 27.1% soft contact rate is second only to Tanner Roark and he might actually pass him when the stats update tonight since Roark is 27.2%. I think it is also fair to say he's been the cubs most consistent starter. His worst two outings(@was and @stl) both were 5.1 innings giving up 4. Every start he's gone at least 5.

Sorry to let out a rant like this but I just don't get how he's still seemingly underrated.

Not really a lack of stuff issue. More of will he match up against a play off caliber pitching staff.

SF: Bum 10-4 1.94, Cueto 13-1 2.47, Shark 9-5 3.91, Peavy 5-7 5.09 Uou have to figure they will look to add a starter. He would match up with shark then. Numbers wise it is about even. Thing is after Bum and Cueto vs Arrieta, Lester you are finger crossing to walk with 1 win. That means your 3-4 have to be better than what they have.

Nats: Scherzer 10-6 3.03 but can flat out shut a team down. Stras. 13-0 2.51 Ya, same situation. Hope for a win going into game 3. They have Ross 7-4 3.49 and Roark 8-5 3.01 Gonzalez maybe pushed to pen duty. 5-8 4.70 Again not a clear cut edge in the back of the rotation.

That is not even getting into Giolito. If he adapts by the play offs you maybe talking 3 ace level starters to deal with.

So my opinion is pretty much they have to dominate the 3-4 slots getting into a series. 1-2 I'm not really feeling that wonderful about. Seeing the other teams we are beatable here. Even with a bounce back from Jake and Jon. They are going up vs legit league aces and there is no room for a hick up start then.

So is he good enough? Yes but is he good enough to beat these guys. SF ya but if they add a legit arm like Hill...well I'm more worried about it.

Actually it is making me think they should go out and make a splash move and solidify the pen and look into a rotation upgrade. The middle innings should play more in these series.

beckdawg · Jul 16, 2016

CSF77 said:
So is he good enough?

The rangers are 7th in the majors in r/g and he shut them out over 6 innings. Against Miami he gave up 0 earned over 5 innings. Against Pit he gave up 1 earned over 6. The aforementioned cards and washington games he gave up 4 over 5.1. Against the dodgers he gave up 2 over 8 innings. Against SF he gave up 1 over 5.1. A different game vs the nats he gave up 0 over 6 innings. Think pretty clearly he can match up vs any of those teams if the worst outing he has had vs these playoff caliber teams is 4 earned over 5.1.

85Bears · Jul 16, 2016

cubsmann said:
Man Will Farrell's impression of Harry Carry is funny as shit! I thought that was who it was when I turned the game back on in the bottom of the seventh.

That was Ryan Dempster, and if I never see him do Harry Caray again it'll be too soon......

TC in Mississippi · Jul 16, 2016

beckdawg said:
The rangers are 7th in the majors in r/g and he shut them out over 6 innings. Against Miami he gave up 0 earned over 5 innings. Against Pit he gave up 1 earned over 6. The aforementioned cards and washington games he gave up 4 over 5.1. Against the dodgers he gave up 2 over 8 innings. Against SF he gave up 1 over 5.1. A different game vs the nats he gave up 0 over 6 innings. Think pretty clearly he can match up vs any of those teams if the worst outing he has had vs these playoff caliber teams is 4 earned over 5.1.

My biggest issue with Hendricks isn't the numbers, it isn't the confidence on the mound it's that pitchers with his kind of velocity are susceptible to advanced scouting. I watch him and I cannot understand why other teams can't figure out how to hit him. That said they rarely are able to put that kind of scouting into practice and I get that. It's just very hard to watch him and understand why not. I'm coming around though. He's having a hell of a season.

DanTown · Jul 16, 2016

Winning the NL would be a huge thing for the Cubs in their quest to win the World Series. If you win the NL, you face the Wild-Card winner and right now, here is how the WC teams shake out

LA Dodgers
New York
Miami
St. Louis
Pittsburgh

If it goes on to be Miami/Dodgers then in the next round, you'd likely face a team where you face their ace only once (either Kershaw of Fernandez).

Also, it would mean that the Giants and Nationals have to eliminate themselves and you might get their rotations jumbled enough where you don't have to face say Bumgarner/Cueto or Scherzer/Strasburg four times but maybe only three.

Diehardfan · Jul 16, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
My biggest issue with Hendricks isn't the numbers, it isn't the confidence on the mound it's that pitchers with his kind of velocity are susceptible to advanced scouting. I watch him and I cannot understand why other teams can't figure out how to hit him. That said they rarely are able to put that kind of scouting into practice and I get that. It's just very hard to watch him and understand why not. I'm coming around though. He's having a hell of a season.

As I'm sure you know, timing is everything when you're hitting and when Hendricks is putting the ball even close to where he wants....it's a problem. Watch the gun on his pitches next time he's out there. He throws the ball at like 3 or 4 different speeds...he goes high, low, in and out. Command is everything for a guy like him....just like it was for Maddux. Sure, 98 mph fastballs are nice but no matter how hard you throw ML hitters will time it and hit it....guys that vary their speeds, not so much.

Omeletpants · Jul 16, 2016

Right now the Cubs are one of the worst teams in MLB. How about they fix that before you start projecting they win a series, cause right now that's not happening