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An interesting thread got locked due to immaturity, and nobody got to discuss the main point... the Cutler can be Elway theory.
(mods, if you want to nuke this, nuke it- but immaturity aside, there was a degree of effort put in to the "another damn qb thread"- I thought it might make an interesting discussion among adults)
The topic has been brought up frequently around this time of year in the past, because Cutler and Elways numbers many times seem similar on the surface.
The people who bring it up pay lip service to the two guys playing in different eras, but I dont think they grasp how different the eras were.
Rating plus is a great way to look at it, but many people completely blow that off when talking about Jay. So lets talk turnover percentage as compared to their eras.
in 83, Elways first year, The average team threw 22.3 tds, 22.1 ints.
In Elways final year, the average team threw for 22 tds and 17 ints.
Last season, the average team threw for 26.3 tds and 13.6 ints.... almost 2-1.
At the end of the day, what we are talking about is turnovers. Elway is perceived to have a lot, just like jay.
However, interception percentage year by year changes the way things look.
Elways interception percentage vs. the average on each season-
83- 5.7- Average team- 4.4- 1.3% below average
84- 3.9- Average team- 4.1- 0.2% above average
85- 3.8- Average team- 4.2- 0.4% above average
86- 2.6- Average team- 4.0- 1.4% above average
87- 2.9- Average team- 4.0- 1.1% above average
88- 3.8- Average team- 3.9- 0.1% above average
89- 4.3- Average team- 3.9- 0.4% below average
90- 2.8- Average team- 3.6- 0.8 above average
91- 2.7- Average team- 3.5- 0.8 above average
92- 5.4- average team- 3.9- 1.5% below average
93- 1.8- Average team- 3.3- 1.5% above average
94- 2.0- Average team- 3.1- 1.1% above average
95- 2.6- Average team- 3.1- 0.5% above average
96- 3.0- Average team- 3.4- 0.4% above average
97- 2.2- Average team- 3.0- 0.8% above average
98- 2.8- Average team- 3.3- 0.5% above average
In 16 seasons, Elway was below the average interception percentage 3 times. 13 years above average.
Now Jay-
06- 3.6- Average team- 3.2- 0.4% below average
07- 3.0- Average team- 3.1- 0.1% above average
08- 2.9- Average team- 2.8- 0.1% below average
09- 4.7- Average team- 3.1- 1.6% below average
10- 3.7- Average team- 3.0- 0.7% below average
11- 2.2- Average team- 2.9- 0.9 above average
12- 3.2- Average team- 2.6- 0.1% below average
13- 3.4- Average team- 2.8- 0.6% below average
14- 3.2- Average team- 2.5- 0.7% below average
15- 2.3- average team- 2.4- 0.1% above average
That is 3 years above average, 7 below.
To put it simply- Elway had as many seasons better than average in interception percentage after year 4 than Jay has had in 10 years.
Elway never had Back to Back seasons where he was below average in interception percentage... Jay has never had Back to Back seasons where he is above average.
If Jay were to continue at this rate (and there is no reason to believe he will not) He would need a 41 year career to reach 13 seasons above average.
(mods, if you want to nuke this, nuke it- but immaturity aside, there was a degree of effort put in to the "another damn qb thread"- I thought it might make an interesting discussion among adults)
The topic has been brought up frequently around this time of year in the past, because Cutler and Elways numbers many times seem similar on the surface.
The people who bring it up pay lip service to the two guys playing in different eras, but I dont think they grasp how different the eras were.
Rating plus is a great way to look at it, but many people completely blow that off when talking about Jay. So lets talk turnover percentage as compared to their eras.
in 83, Elways first year, The average team threw 22.3 tds, 22.1 ints.
In Elways final year, the average team threw for 22 tds and 17 ints.
Last season, the average team threw for 26.3 tds and 13.6 ints.... almost 2-1.
At the end of the day, what we are talking about is turnovers. Elway is perceived to have a lot, just like jay.
However, interception percentage year by year changes the way things look.
Elways interception percentage vs. the average on each season-
83- 5.7- Average team- 4.4- 1.3% below average
84- 3.9- Average team- 4.1- 0.2% above average
85- 3.8- Average team- 4.2- 0.4% above average
86- 2.6- Average team- 4.0- 1.4% above average
87- 2.9- Average team- 4.0- 1.1% above average
88- 3.8- Average team- 3.9- 0.1% above average
89- 4.3- Average team- 3.9- 0.4% below average
90- 2.8- Average team- 3.6- 0.8 above average
91- 2.7- Average team- 3.5- 0.8 above average
92- 5.4- average team- 3.9- 1.5% below average
93- 1.8- Average team- 3.3- 1.5% above average
94- 2.0- Average team- 3.1- 1.1% above average
95- 2.6- Average team- 3.1- 0.5% above average
96- 3.0- Average team- 3.4- 0.4% above average
97- 2.2- Average team- 3.0- 0.8% above average
98- 2.8- Average team- 3.3- 0.5% above average
In 16 seasons, Elway was below the average interception percentage 3 times. 13 years above average.
Now Jay-
06- 3.6- Average team- 3.2- 0.4% below average
07- 3.0- Average team- 3.1- 0.1% above average
08- 2.9- Average team- 2.8- 0.1% below average
09- 4.7- Average team- 3.1- 1.6% below average
10- 3.7- Average team- 3.0- 0.7% below average
11- 2.2- Average team- 2.9- 0.9 above average
12- 3.2- Average team- 2.6- 0.1% below average
13- 3.4- Average team- 2.8- 0.6% below average
14- 3.2- Average team- 2.5- 0.7% below average
15- 2.3- average team- 2.4- 0.1% above average
That is 3 years above average, 7 below.
To put it simply- Elway had as many seasons better than average in interception percentage after year 4 than Jay has had in 10 years.
Elway never had Back to Back seasons where he was below average in interception percentage... Jay has never had Back to Back seasons where he is above average.
If Jay were to continue at this rate (and there is no reason to believe he will not) He would need a 41 year career to reach 13 seasons above average.
