30 games left.......

85Bears · Sep 1, 2016

Diehardfan said:
He's a Sox fan, TC.

That's what they do.

Yeah...

Brett, you've been a positive contributor to this Cubs forum for a long time and I respect you. But the Cubs are the best team in baseball right now. The record shows it, the metrics show it, all rankings say it, all national media agrees, and opposing teams' fan bases even agree. Arguing that they are not right now is just plain silly.

Yes, anything can happen in the playoffs, and if they aren't the best team in baseball in 1 month then the playoffs could get dicey for Cubs fans. But over 132 out of 162 games, the Chicago Cubs are the best team in baseball.

CSF77 · Sep 1, 2016

DanTown said:
Games are just nine inning snapshots that don't really correctly predict how good or bad a team is.

Texas - 134 games played
635 runs for
615 runs against

Chicago - 132 games played
652 runs for
450 runs against

So in less games the Cubs have scored more runs while playing in a worse ballpark for offense and defensively they are better by over 150 runs.

And oh yeah, if you want to measure a team by wins, the Cubs have 5 more wins and 7 less loses.

You cannot make any good argument that any team other than the Cubs is the best team this regular season. Winning in the playoffs is different but the Cubs have been amazing this year.

When your 1-4 hitters all spin out OBA's near .400 runs tend to happen. Ask Mr Russell and his obscene RBI total.

The D is league leading and all 5 starters are in the top 20.

When you put this together at the same time you get a run difference like that.

I'll disagree Brett. The Cubs are putting up AL run production with a pitcher hitting with a run suppressing D.

You can pick on the details but as a complete package the rest of baseball is not at that level.

brett05 · Sep 2, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
I don't see where anyone has said that teams don't get lucky and win. That has nothing to do with this discussion. Sometimes I wonder what it is you're arguing.

It has everything to do with the bad point brought up by DanTown. I wonder why you are so afraid to point that out. You have really good insight but if that good insight happens to correct a Cub Fan and/or agree with me mostly you cower away. Why?

brett05 · Sep 2, 2016

fatbeard said:
Brett has been staking out these narrow, unsupportable, idiotic positions since the offseason projections first predicted that the Cubs would be the head-and-shoulders best team in the league. Which of course he objected to.

Hodor.

Never predicted that. I said that they would win 98 games. Not the same. I don't expect you or PR to understand that. But hey, keep making stuff up. It's gotta be the majority of your posts.

brett05 · Sep 2, 2016

85Bears said:
Yeah...

Brett, you've been a positive contributor to this Cubs forum for a long time and I respect you. But the Cubs are the best team in baseball right now. The record shows it, the metrics show it, all rankings say it, all national media agrees, and opposing teams' fan bases even agree. Arguing that they are not right now is just plain silly.

Yes, anything can happen in the playoffs, and if they aren't the best team in baseball in 1 month then the playoffs could get dicey for Cubs fans. But over 132 out of 162 games, the Chicago Cubs are the best team in baseball.

So you ignore that they Cubs are 12 games over 500 against the better teams while Texas is 30 games???? That seems like ignoring an obvious fact.

The Cubs very well maybe the best team in baseball. But to say cases can't be made for others seems really short sighted. And that's been my point. We really can't tell who the best team is. Remember being a majority does not mean one is right.

brett05 · Sep 2, 2016

CSF77 said:
When your 1-4 hitters all spin out OBA's near .400 runs tend to happen. Ask Mr Russell and his obscene RBI total.

The D is league leading and all 5 starters are in the top 20.

When you put this together at the same time you get a run difference like that.

I'll disagree Brett. The Cubs are putting up AL run production with a pitcher hitting with a run suppressing D.

You can pick on the details but as a complete package the rest of baseball is not at that level.

What's the Cubs run differential against teams over .500?

TC in Mississippi · Sep 2, 2016

brett05 said:
What's the Cubs run differential against teams over .500?

You keep talking sequencing when it doesn't matter and touting the record of the Rangers against teams over 500 when the numbers show they're an incredibly lucky team over performing their Pythagorean record by 10 games. Then you show teams that got lucky and won despite poor run differentials. Your argument is all over the place.

brett05 · Sep 2, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
You keep talking sequencing when it doesn't matter and touting the record of the Rangers against teams over 500 when the numbers show they're an incredibly lucky team over performing their Pythagorean record by 10 games. Then you show teams that got lucky and won despite poor run differentials. Your argument is all over the place.

My argument is that there is lots of things that can contribute toward what makes a team better than another.

You keep using the Pythagorean record as a crutch. I'm using actual wins.

TC in Mississippi · Sep 2, 2016

brett05 said:
My argument is that there is lots of things that can contribute toward what makes a team better than another.

You keep using the Pythagorean record as a crutch. I'm using actual wins.

The Cubs lead in actual wins as well but wins don't tell the whole story. You say lots of things contribute to why one team is better than another? Well I agree, projected outcomes, base runs, run differential all play a very large part. If Texas was within a game or 2 I might see the argument but it's 6 games and the Cubs are underperforming to their stats while Texas is FAR over performing to those stats. Just as we know whether to trust a hitters stats by looking at where their BABIP is we do the same for teams. Every single rational argument using total wins or advanced stats shows the Cubs to be the best team in baseball and it isn't close. That doesn't mean they'll win the World Series as the best teams in the game win it less than 50% of the time but today, 9/2, it's very clear.

Parade_Rain · Sep 2, 2016

fatbeard said:
Gifs and smileys are the last refuge of the defeated.

brett05 · Sep 2, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
The Cubs lead in actual wins as well but wins don't tell the whole story. You say lots of things contribute to why one team is better than another? Well I agree, projected outcomes, base runs, run differential all play a very large part. If Texas was within a game or 2 I might see the argument but it's 6 games and the Cubs are underperforming to their stats while Texas is FAR over performing to those stats. Just as we know whether to trust a hitters stats by looking at where their BABIP is we do the same for teams. Every single rational argument using total wins or advanced stats shows the Cubs to be the best team in baseball and it isn't close. That doesn't mean they'll win the World Series as the best teams in the game win it less than 50% of the time but today, 9/2, it's very clear.

Not every stat does. When you look at the stats and see that eh Cubs high win totals is due mostly to their dominance of the worst teams in baseball it makes a huge difference.

We have to agree to disagree on this.

fatbeard · Sep 2, 2016

brett05 said:
My argument is that there is lots of things that can contribute toward what makes a team better than another.

You keep using the Pythagorean record as a crutch. I'm using actual wins.

That's the whole fucking point, brett. You can't just look at wins and call it a day, because teams do overperform their talent, they do get lucky, they do sometimes benefit from sequencing in an unsustainable way. That's why everyone keeps bringing up Pythagorean wins, because it strips most of that out:

Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to evaluate how lucky that team was (by examining the variation between the two winning percentages).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

So again, you've staked out an incredibly narrow position so you can spin your narrative when far better information is available to inform it. You believe that the Rangers have found some special sauce that allows them to dominate over-.500 teams in spite of their paltry runs scored/runs allowed total. Their Pythagorean expectation shows them to be lucky enough to win 11 more games than they really should have, and that they're really a slightly above-.500 team masquerading as a WS contender. Everyone can see it but you, and its baffling.

czman · Sep 2, 2016

brett05 said:
So you ignore that they Cubs are 12 games over 500 against the better teams while Texas is 30 games???? That seems like ignoring an obvious fact.

The Cubs very well maybe the best team in baseball. But to say cases can't be made for others seems really short sighted. And that's been my point. We really can't tell who the best team is. Remember being a majority does not mean one is right.

They have the same amount of losses against teams over 500 though. So the Rangers have played more games against teams over 500 because there are three more teams over 500 right now in the AL.

The Cubs are 13-4 in IL play while the Rangers are 10-6. Texas is 30-8 in one run games, and anyone who does not think there is a lot of luck in that kind of record is an idiot. It is also why they have way over performed their pythagorean WIN-LOSS record.

Texas is about the worst argument out there for best team since their record has been way better then just about all other metrics.

Best team in baseball is the Cubs, even if a troll Sox fan who spends all his time on the Cubs board doesn't agree.

TC in Mississippi · Sep 2, 2016

By the way Brett, in the last 10 years these are the numbers against .500 teams or better from the WS winner:

+4, -4, +10, +2, even, -7, +17, +3, +4, -5

What do those numbers tell us? That record against teams over .500 is completely meaningless. It's strictly a sequencing argument.

Diehardfan · Sep 2, 2016

Categorizing teams over a 162 game schedule is pointless. When the Cubs get on a roll, they simply beat everyone...conversely, when they struggle anyone can beat them. How many games did we see them get beat by really bad pitchers? It's the ebb and flow of a very long schedule filled with air travel back and forth across the country. These guys are not robots. Other than being able to play the game of baseball really well...they are just like us. There was a time when I used to do some traveling by air...I hated it. I was always tired. I can't even imagine what it must be like for pro athletes. That's why I really think this big lead will help them with Madden resting guys leading up to the playoffs. It won't matter who they play....only how they are playing.

brett05 · Sep 2, 2016

fatbeard said:
That's the whole ... point, brett. You can't just look at wins and call it a day, because teams do overperform their talent, they do get lucky, they do sometimes benefit from sequencing in an unsustainable way. That's why everyone keeps bringing up Pythagorean wins, because it strips most of that out:

Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to evaluate how lucky that team was (by examining the variation between the two winning percentages).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

So again, you've staked out an incredibly narrow position so you can spin your narrative when far better information is available to inform it. You believe that the Rangers have found some special sauce that allows them to dominate over-.500 teams in spite of their paltry runs scored/runs allowed total. Their Pythagorean expectation shows them to be lucky enough to win 11 more games than they really should have, and that they're really a slightly above-.500 team masquerading as a WS contender. Everyone can see it but you, and its baffling.

When did I ever say that I did not understand the Pythagorean percentage? That does not measure luck assuming that could even be measured. It's based on run differential which is not what I would use on it's own to describe better teams on it's own. a much better way would be to see how teams performed against better competition.

85 Bears gets it. So does TC even if they disagree with me, they get it. you and others simply don't.

TC in Mississippi · Sep 2, 2016

Diehardfan said:
Categorizing teams over a 162 game schedule is pointless. When the Cubs get on a roll, they simply beat everyone...conversely, when they struggle anyone can beat them. How many games did we see them get beat by really bad pitchers? It's the ebb and flow of a very long schedule filled with air travel back and forth across the country. These guys are not robots. Other than being able to play the game of baseball really well...they are just like us. There was a time when I used to do some traveling by air...I hated it. I was always tired. I can't even imagine what it must be like for pro athletes. That's why I really think this big lead will help them with Madden resting guys leading up to the playoffs. It won't matter who they play....only how they are playing.

I mean that's really it isn't it? Dead on about air travel by the way I fly 2 or 3 times a month and it's hard even though my job is more cerebral that physical. These guys have to fly and compete athletically at a world class level. To me the Cubs are the best team in the league because when you remove the highs and lows you're left with a really talented club with very high odds to win the WS.

brett05 · Sep 2, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
By the way Brett, in the last 10 years these are the numbers against .500 teams or better from the WS winner:

+4, -4, +10, +2, even, -7, +17, +3, +4, -5

What do those numbers tell us? That record against teams over .500 is completely meaningless. It's strictly a sequencing argument.

It tells us that winning percentage against 500 teams has nothing to do with determining the World Series champ. Good thing no one hear is bringing that up.

But as long as we are taking a tangent, the last 21 WS Champs, only 4 have had the best Regular Season Record.

brett05 · Sep 2, 2016

Diehardfan said:
Categorizing teams over a 162 game schedule is pointless. When the Cubs get on a roll, they simply beat everyone...conversely, when they struggle anyone can beat them. ... It won't matter who they play....only how they are playing.

Replace the team Cubs with any team and the sentence truth does not change.

brett05 · Sep 2, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
I mean that's really it isn't it? Dead on about air travel by the way I fly 2 or 3 times a month and it's hard even though my job is more cerebral that physical. These guys have to fly and compete athletically at a world class level. To me the Cubs are the best team in the league because when you remove the highs and lows you're left with a really talented club with very high odds to win the WS.

Actually the odds are very high against them winning the World Series as it is for any team.

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