IST: Cubs vs. Reds

CSF77

CSF77

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Ari Bear said:
I think that mite put Lester pass Hendricks for the front runner for the CY

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Hendricks was not the front runner. Lester passed Scherzer last time around. Hendricks is behind them both. His wins and IP is holding him back right now.

Lester just needs to keep this pace with out tossing a lemon and there is nothing Scherzer can do.

Scherzer leads in IP and strike outs but his losses are hurting him.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung

The point total on Lester should update in the morning. He should be near 185
 
Ari Bear

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CSF77 said:
Hendricks was not the front runner. Lester passed Scherzer last time around. Hendricks is behind them both. His wins and IP is holding him back right now.

Lester just needs to keep this pace with out tossing a lemon and there is nothing Scherzer can do.

Scherzer leads in IP and strike outs but his losses are hurting him.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung

The point total on Lester should update in the morning. He should be near 185
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Don't think IP are gonna matter much and k's is a small factor, getting people out is all that matters really. Hopefully Lester keeps rolling his next few outings.

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CSF77

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Also they weigh it as (IP * 5)/9 - ER. ace ERA on a point value. That is why they don't get wrapped up in ERA as a gauge.
 
CSF77

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Ari Bear said:
Don't think IP are gonna matter much and k's is a small factor, getting people out is all that matters really. Hopefully Lester keeps rolling his next few outings.

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SO's are valued as SO/12. Has value but not as huge as you would think. Wins factor but it is more about W to losses. So Kyle at 15-8 over rides his ERA.
 
Ari Bear

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CSF77 said:
SO's are valued as SO/12. Has value but not as huge as you would think. Wins factor but it is more about W to losses. So Kyle at 15-8 over rides his ERA.
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What's helping Kyle stay in this is his era. Wins and era are the two biggest factors when deciding the CY.

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beckdawg

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Ari Bear said:
I think that mite put Lester pass Hendricks for the front runner for the CY

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Tough to say that one way or another. Like I doubt Hendricks wins it but fuck if he hasn't been amazingly consistent this year. In 28 starts this year he has 5 games with a game score below 50(average)

4-20 @STL where he gave up 4 in 5.1 for a game score of 40
5-17 @MIL where he gave up 4 in 5.1 for a game score of 45
6-13 @WAS where he gave up 3 earned(4 total) in 5.1 for a game score of 37
6-24 @MIA where he gave up 0 earned(4 total) on 1 hit, 4 walks in 5 for a game score of 46
7-26 @CHW where he gave up 3 in 5.2 for a game score of 49

And to contrast he has 7 games with a game score over 70. 3 of those 5 starts are on the road vs playoff type teams and none of those 5 are particularly bad. Of note, the first 2 games are the only games he's given up 4 earned and he's only had 3 starts he's even given up 3.

To me, I think you have to decide which is better. Consistency or dominance. Lester has more games over 70 but he also had 3 starts giving up 8, 5 and 5 @NYM, @PIT, @SFG as well as a 4 @MIL. Bumgarner is a bit closer to Hendricks in that regard but he still has 7 games giving up 4 or 5. Cueto has given up 6 three times, 5 once, 4 four times. Scherzer has given up 7 once, 5 three times and 4 three times. Fernandez has given up 6 twice, 5 three times, and 4 three times. Syndergaard has given up 5 twice and 4 twice.

So, Hendricks has easily been the most consistent. If I had a vote, that's where I'd go with it. In the regular season, give me consistent chances to win over dominant performances(with the occasional clunker) every day. The season is a grind and as such I think consistency should be held in higher regard. In the playoffs, you want dominance. However, like I said I largely expect it to go to Bumgarner or Scherzer(assuming people don't jump on Kershaw) because they are neck and neck at 210ish innings with great k/bb rates and a good ERA.
 
Ari Bear

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beckdawg said:
Tough to say that one way or another. Like I doubt Hendricks wins it but fuck if he hasn't been amazingly consistent this year. In 28 starts this year he has 5 games with a game score below 50(average)

4-20 @STL where he gave up 4 in 5.1 for a game score of 40
5-17 @MIL where he gave up 4 in 5.1 for a game score of 45
6-13 @WAS where he gave up 3 earned(4 total) in 5.1 for a game score of 37
6-24 @MIA where he gave up 0 earned(4 total) on 1 hit, 4 walks in 5 for a game score of 46
7-26 @CHW where he gave up 3 in 5.2 for a game score of 49

And to contrast he has 7 games with a game score over 70. 3 of those 5 starts are on the road vs playoff type teams and none of those 5 are particularly bad. Of note, the first 2 games are the only games he's given up 4 earned and he's only had 3 starts he's even given up 3.

To me, I think you have to decide which is better. Consistency or dominance. Lester has more games over 70 but he also had 3 starts giving up 8, 5 and 5 @NYM, @PIT, @SFG as well as a 4 @MIL. Bumgarner is a bit closer to Hendricks in that regard but he still has 7 games giving up 4 or 5. Cueto has given up 6 three times, 5 once, 4 four times. Scherzer has given up 7 once, 5 three times and 4 three times. Fernandez has given up 6 twice, 5 three times, and 4 three times. Syndergaard has given up 5 twice and 4 twice.

So, Hendricks has easily been the most consistent. If I had a vote, that's where I'd go with it. In the regular season, given me consistent chances to win over dominant performances(with the occasional clunker) every day. The season is a grind and as such I think consistency should be held in higher regard. In the playoffs, you want dominance. However, like I said I largely expect it to go to Bumgarner or Scherzer(assuming people don't jump on Kershaw) because they are neck and neck at 210ish innings with great k/bb rates and a good ERA.
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Hendricks screwed himself last outing by not getting a win. Though of course that was one of the Cubbies really bad offensive performances. But whatever he got the loss.

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beckdawg

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Ari Bear said:
Hendricks screwed himself last outing by not getting a win. Though of course that was one of the Cubbies really bad offensive performances. But whatever he got the loss.

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Hard to say he screwed himself when he threw 6 innings of 2 run ball. People are either going to appreciate his consistency or they aren't. He could have 20 wins and I don't really think it changes the discussion. Hendricks is the anthesis of what I believe is a new age of pitching profiles similar to what OBP did for the A's and how it seemingly took baseball several years to figure out exactly what was going on there. He's the best in baseball at limiting hard contact. And honestly, a lot of cubs are but Arrieta was so filthy in other regards it wasn't apparent last year.

And that type of pitcher is something you either buy into or you don't right now. It's basically unproven over a long haul. And just like RBI's and HR's used to be all that mattered in hitting, these days it's largely K's that matter in pitching. Admittedly, they do appear to have more impact than say RBI's on actual out comes in games but suffice to say they clearly aren't the whole picture. I think cubs fans sort of get this now because we've been around Hendricks all year but I'm guessing baseball by in large just see his low ERA and thinks fluke.
 
Ari Bear

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beckdawg said:
Hard to say he screwed himself when he threw 6 innings of 2 run ball. People are either going to appreciate his consistency or they aren't. He could have 20 wins and I don't really think it changes the discussion. Hendricks is the anthesis of what I believe is a new age of pitching profiles similar to what OBP did for the A's and how it seemingly took baseball several years to figure out exactly what was going on there. He's the best in baseball at limiting hard contact. And honestly, a lot of cubs are but Arrieta was so filthy in other regards it wasn't apparent last year.

And that type of pitcher is something you either buy into or you don't right now. It's basically unproven over a long haul. And just like RBI's and HR's used to be all that mattered in hitting, these days it's largely K's that matter in pitching. Admittedly, they do appear to have more impact than say RBI's on actual out comes in games but suffice to say they clearly aren't the whole picture. I think cubs fans sort of get this now because we've been around Hendricks all year but I'm guessing baseball by in large just see his low ERA and thinks fluke.
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I did correct myself by say his offense support was awful last outing. If he had Arrieta and Hammels run support this season he would have 20 plus wins.

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beckdawg

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Ari Bear said:
I did correct myself by say his offense support was awful last outing. If he had Arrieta and Hammels run support this season he would have 20 plus wins.

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Yeah... I mean like I said to me it just comes down to what you are looking for. Hendricks doesn't fit the typical profile as an elite ERA guy. Some will actually take the time to wonder why but others wont. And like I said, I don't think wins will sway those people. Realistically speaking he should easily have 20+ wins because he has 23 starts where he's given up 2 or fewer runs and he plays for one of the best offensive teams in baseball.
 
Ari Bear

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beckdawg said:
Yeah... I mean like I said to me it just comes down to what you are looking for. Hendricks doesn't fit the typical profile as an elite ERA guy. Some will actually take the time to wonder why but others wont. And like I said, I don't think wins will sway those people. Realistically speaking he should easily have 20+ wins because he has 23 starts where he's given up 2 or fewer runs and he plays for one of the best offensive teams in baseball.
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He's actually one of my favorite Cub players. He reminds me of Greg Maddux. He pitches with his mind. Gets hitters off balance, gets them to hit the ball on the ground. He's a artist!
 

TC in Mississippi

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beckdawg said:
Yeah... I mean like I said to me it just comes down to what you are looking for. Hendricks doesn't fit the typical profile as an elite ERA guy. Some will actually take the time to wonder why but others wont. And like I said, I don't think wins will sway those people. Realistically speaking he should easily have 20+ wins because he has 23 starts where he's given up 2 or fewer runs and he plays for one of the best offensive teams in baseball.
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Perfectly illustrates why the win stat is ridiculous in this day and age.
 
CSF77

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TC in Mississippi said:
Perfectly illustrates why the win stat is ridiculous in this day and age.
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It factors. Last year Jake beat Grenke based off it vs ERA. If you were weighing ERA then Jake would not have won the award.

That model had Jake at #1 at the end of the year and that is how the award ended up. Bob James came up with that formula and most bow down to him. So there are plenty of voters who are looking at it.
 
CSF77

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NL starters it weighs Lester, Scherzer then Hendricks. It gives a bonus 12 points to being on a div leader. You factor it out then Cueto would be #3 ahead of him.

That is not including the closers of LAD and NYM. Those 2 are ahead of Kyle in the rankings.
 

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Three-way tie for the NL wild card as of this morning.
 

TC in Mississippi

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CSF77 said:
NL starters it weighs Lester, Scherzer then Hendricks. It gives a bonus 12 points to being on a div leader. You factor it out then Cueto would be #3 ahead of him.

That is not including the closers of LAD and NYM. Those 2 are ahead of Kyle in the rankings.
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I get this ranking and I understand it accurately predicted Arrieta last year but I'm not sure about that this year. Scherzer is a prototypical CY winner and I think Lester and Hendricks will split some Cubs votes. Maybe not a lot but I don't think it will have to be a lot.
 
CSF77

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TC in Mississippi said:
I get this ranking and I understand it accurately predicted Arrieta last year but I'm not sure about that this year. Scherzer is a prototypical CY winner and I think Lester and Hendricks will split some Cubs votes. Maybe not a lot but I don't think it will have to be a lot.
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I believe Lester will win it. It is his to lose.
 
Diehardfan

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My favorite teams
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Is this thing still decided by the baseball writers? If so, it continues to be a farce. Can the idiotic stats and the over inflated egos of the writers.

In some way, shape or form....it should be ultimately decided by the people that earn their living facing these pitchers.
 
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