Examining the Different NLDS Scenario's

If the playoffs started today, the Nats would face off against the Dodgers. We would play the winner of the Wild Card between SF and NYM. First off, a wild care game with Thor battling Madison Baumgarten would be amazing. That would be must-see TV. If the Mets win, we are basically going:

Game 1: Colon vs Lester
Game 2: Gsellman vs Hendricks
Game 3: Lugo vs Arrieta
Game 4: Thor vs Lackey

It would be tough to imagine the Mets winning a series against us with those match ups. I think we'd be looking at 3-0 sweep or a 3-1 series win.

SF advancing past the Mets wouldn't be quite as fun. This is what we'd be looking at:

Game 1: Cueto vs Lester
Game 2: Matt Moore vs Hendricks
Game 3: Shark vs Arrieta
Game 4: Baumgarten vs Lackey

Or would there be days off to allow Baumgarten to pitch in Game 3? If so, would Shark then go in Game 4 or back to Cueto?

Cueto runs from dominate to brutal. Moore just threw a nasty 11-strike out game against the Rockies but is up and down. Shark can pitch well at times but is not dominate or reliable. And Baumgarten is dominate the majority of the time. Obviously it would do us wonders to get to Cueto in game 1.

I would think both Hendricks and Arrieta can and probably will out-duel Moore and Shark. But you'd hate to go into game 4 with Madison having the opportunity to tie it at 2-2. Still, my gut tells we'd take them out in 4 games -- possibly 5.

Or If St. Louis advances, I'm not sure what order their starting rotation would go with Wainwright, Leake and Garcia all having bad years. I would think Martinez would pitch in the Wild Card game leaving the rotation like this:

Game 1: Reyes vs Lester
Game 2: Wainwright vs Hendricks
Game 3: Garcia vs Arrieta
Game 4: Martinez vs Lackey

While I want nothing to do with Reyes in game 1, I could see this going 3-0 or 3-1 with us advancing easily. They'd have to beat Lester and Hendricks at Wrigley -- which I just don't see happening.

My preference would be New York, St. Louis and then the Giants. Let's just hope SF gets eliminated.....

The WC game is Wednesday so the guy who starts that game would likely start game 3 since that's four days off before Game 3 on Monday. No reason a team would hold back their ace in that situation. If they're down 2-0, the game is an obvious must win. If they're up 2-0, they can win it with him. If they're tied 1-1, they don't want to risk being down 2-1. Also, if you start him game 3, he could come back on normal rest for game 1 of the next series.

Have to imagine the answer to this question is I don't want to face the Giants. They're 22-9 when Cueto starts and pair that with Madison, that's a very tough out in a five game series. Give me the Mets with their questionable pitching (seeing Syndegaard once) or the Cardinals (HR or bust).

It's looking like SF/NYM next Wednesday. The Cards suck too bad to leap frog SF.

Thor vs Madison in NY. It will be epic. And I will be pulling HARD for the Mets.

If SF advances, Cueto vs Lester a week from today at Wrigley.


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DJMoore_is_fat said:

It's looking like SF/NYM next Wednesday. The Cards suck too bad to leap frog SF.

Thor vs Madison in NY. It will be epic. And I will be pulling HARD for the Mets.

If SF advances, Cueto vs Lester a week from today at Wrigley.


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The Cardinals trail by 1 in the loss column so it's far too early to talk about it this way. Especially with the Dodgers throwing their three best pitchers (Hill, Kershaw, Maeda) against the Giants.

DanTown said:

The Cardinals trail by 1 in the loss column so it's far too early to talk about it this way. Especially with the Dodgers throwing their three best pitchers (Hill, Kershaw, Maeda) against the Giants.

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SF has done everything possible to gift St Louis the WC. But St Louis simply sucks too bad to take it.


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DanTown said:

The WC game is Wednesday so the guy who starts that game would likely start game 3 since that's four days off before Game 3 on Monday. No reason a team would hold back their ace in that situation. If they're down 2-0, the game is an obvious must win. If they're up 2-0, they can win it with him. If they're tied 1-1, they don't want to risk being down 2-1. Also, if you start him game 3, he could come back on normal rest for game 1 of the next series.

Have to imagine the answer to this question is I don't want to face the Giants. They're 22-9 when Cueto starts and pair that with Madison, that's a very tough out in a five game series. Give me the Mets with their questionable pitching (seeing Syndegaard once) or the Cardinals (HR or bust).

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Cubs are 24-7 when Lester starts. Don't see the advantage here

I would be concerned under the old wild card rules. Losing a ace in a 1 game weakens these teams too much. They don't have the pitching depth to counter it.

SF would be another story under the old format

CSF77 said:

Cubs are 24-7 when Lester starts. Don't see the advantage here

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I'm not saying they have an advantage but being able to neutralize Lester with a sub 3 ERA pitcher who's team also wins a lot of starts isn't the best of recipes. You want to avoid putting yourself in bad situations so I'll ask, which team do you fear the most being tied 1-1 to? Also, how likely are they to be up 2-0? Only one team (2013 Boston) has been the home team and up 2-0 so if it's 1-1, who do you want to face?

Here are rotations by FIP

SF
Cueto - 2.95
Shark - 3.85
Bumgarner - 3.28
Moore - 3.68

NY
Colon - 4.00
Gsellman - 2.84
Syndegaard - 2.29
Lugo - 4.33

St Louis
Reyes - 2.67
Wainwright - 3.99
Martinez - 3.70
Leake - 3.83

DanTown said:

I'm not saying they have an advantage but being able to neutralize Lester with a sub 3 ERA pitcher who's team also wins a lot of starts isn't the best of recipes. You want to avoid putting yourself in bad situations so I'll ask, which team do you fear the most being tied 1-1 to? Also, how likely are they to be up 2-0? Only one team (2013 Boston) has been the home team and up 2-0 so if it's 1-1, who do you want to face?

Here are rotations by FIP

SF
Cueto - 2.95
Shark - 3.85
Bumgarner - 3.28
Moore - 3.68

NY
Colon - 4.00
Gsellman - 2.84
Syndegaard - 2.29
Lugo - 4.33

St Louis
Reyes - 2.67
Wainwright - 3.99
Martinez - 3.70
Leake - 3.83

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Rookies in NY bother me more.

On paper the team you'd prefer to see is the mets.

No harvey, no degrom, no matz...Miss Syndergaard until game 3.

They've been playing the phillies, braves and marlins of the world the last month so i couls care less what their record has been or how "well" their 6th-7th-8th starters have performed.

The one advantage they have is their closer is better than anything the giants have and tested/better than the cards closers.

The cards scare me a bit with revenge, a healthier team than they've had in a while, a good manager, and a revamped rotation with reyes possibly going in game 1.

Sf has pedigree but dont think they've won a series vs a team with a winning record in 3+ months.....their bullpen sucks, they havent been scoring runs and i think have the worst record in the nl since the break..that's bad.

Cards only have a 28% chance of even making the playoffs at this point, then they have to beat the Giants/Mets. I'd say there's about a 10% chance we face them in the NLDS.

Mets up. They win they are in.

Cards down. If they lose today and SF wins it is over for them.

Two teams tie for both Wild Card spots, or two teams tie for the second Wild Card spot
If there is a two-team tie for the two Wild Card spots they do not play a tiebreaker game to decide home-field advantage. Instead, it is decided based on head-to-head record, followed by intradivsion record. If that doesn't settle it, it then goes to intraleague record.

If there is a two-team tie for the second Wild Card spot, a tiebreaker game will be hosted by the team with the better head-to-head record during the regular season. If they split the season series, home-field will be determined by the team with the better intradivision record.

Here is who has the tiebreaker edge:

NATIONAL LEAGUE
*Cardinals: They hold the tiebreaker over the Giants. They tied the Mets head to head, so it would depend on their final record against teams in their division, which is still to be determined

*Mets: They hold the tiebreaker over the Giants. They tied the Cardinals head to head, so it would depend on their final record against teams in their division, which is still to be determined

*Giants: Both the Mets and Cardinals hold the tiebreaker over the Giants.

Not sure what SF is thinking. Blanch? Vs Kershaw. Are they planning on giving up the game?

Cards might lose today and if they pull a come back and SF gives up a game it puts them into a tie the final day. If they both stay the same a 1 game will be held at Busch to determine who faces the Mets in their 1 game.

They have Moore listed on the final.

So it could end up they use Cueto and Bum in a 2 WC set up. That would force them to lead off with Moore game 1. Really bad situation for them then.

No matter what team the Cubs face their going to face their top 3 starters once.
whatever order it is I don't think it really matters cause bottom line is, they have to beat no matter who on mound.

Ive only got 2 concerns. .
Cubs pitchers starters and relievers stay sharp during week and dont end up being too rested where they have control issues.

Hitters are able to maintain their timing after being all week and not facing live pitching

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Mets won. Cards pulled the comeback. 0-0 SFG vs Shaw. It may end up a perfect storm.

And 55: not about the ace going 1 time at all. It would be a 1 game then the next day a 1 game.

Oct 2 is season final. Oct 7 is game 1.

That means if there are 2 games in between that and they have to pitch both their 1/2 in that span.

Oct 8 is game 2. Oct 10 is game 3. This means game 3 would be their ace then game 4 their 2. So this forces them to use their #4

CSF77 said:

Mets won. Cards pulled the comeback. 0-0 SFG vs Shaw. It may end up a perfect storm.

And 55: not about the ace going 1 time at all. It would be a 1 game then the next day a 1 game.

Oct 2 is season final. Oct 7 is game 1.

That means if there are 2 games in between that and they have to pitch both their 1/2 in that span.

Oct 8 is game 2. Oct 10 is game 3. This means game 3 would be their ace then game 4 their 2. So this forces them to use their #4

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My point is, no matter what order a team needs to go
Cubs have to face all their pitchers at least once if it goes 4 games.

SF right now
Cueto Sunday
Samardzija Monday (tie breaker)
Bum Wednesday (WC)

Vs Cubs
Cueto Game 1
Samardzija Game 2
Bum Game 3


Cardinals
Wainwright Sunday
Leake Monday (tie breaker)
Martinez Weds (WC)

Vs Cubs
Wainwright Game 1
Leake Game 2
Martinez Game 3

Even with tie breaker on Monday
Cubs will still get
Wainwright Game 1 and Martinez Game 3 if Cardinals
Cueto Game 1 and Bum Game 3 if Giants

So, as you see tie breaker or not Monday it really doesn't change who the Cubs will face the first 3 games


Mets
Syndergaard WC

Vs Cubs
Colon Game 1
Gsellman Game 2
Syndergarrd Game 3




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You are assuming a sweep?

CSF77 said:

You are assuming a sweep?

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What makes you think that?

My original point was no matter If there a tie breaker game or not, their going to face the team top 3 starters in first 3 games

Obviously if the series goes 4 games they most likely face opposing 4th starter in that game, unless a team get desperate ( down 2 -1) and pitches game 1 starter in game 4

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