2016 MLB Playoff thread!

SilenceS

SilenceS

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Talk mlb playoffs here. We will have separate threads for Cubs.

Stroman is dominating right now and the Orioles have crushed him this year. Joey Bats gets Blue Jays on the board.

Its loud as shit in Toronto right now.
 

TL1961

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Rooting for Toronto, but I hope Bautista hits into a triple play.

OK, maybe a DP, with runner to third, and someone else drives him in.
 
Mr. Cub

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Encarnacion is a beast. Prob my favorite on the Jays.
 

TC in Mississippi

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I think Toronto beats Texas in 4 games. The Rangers are a product of a awful lot of luck finishing a whopping 16 games over their Pythagorean record and ending the season with a measly +8 run differential.
 

brett05

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TC in Mississippi said:
I think Toronto beats Texas in 4 games. The Rangers are a product of a awful lot of luck finishing a whopping 16 games over their Pythagorean record and ending the season with a measly +8 run differential.
Click to expand...

I disagree completely. They are 29 games over .500 against teams with a .500 or better record. The rest of teams that are over are only 37 games combined. That means that yes there have been in a few blowout losses, but when it comes to the very best teams, Texas enters beast mode. I can't see it going past 6 games with Texas moving on.
 

TC in Mississippi

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brett05 said:
I disagree completely. They are 29 games over .500 against teams with a .500 or better record. The rest of teams that are over are only 37 games combined. That means that yes there have been in a few blowout losses, but when it comes to the very best teams, Texas enters beast mode. I can't see it going past 6 games with Texas moving on.
Click to expand...

Clearly they have an emotional edge to them, and while that could aid them in a 5 game series I don't think it will. I think Toronto is a better team and they actually underperformed their expected win total by 5 games. Of course you still have to play the games.
 

fatbeard

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brett05 said:
I disagree completely. They are 29 games over .500 against teams with a .500 or better record. The rest of teams that are over are only 37 games combined. That means that yes there have been in a few blowout losses, but when it comes to the very best teams, Texas enters beast mode. I can't see it going past 6 games with Texas moving on.
Click to expand...

I'll take misinterpreting statistics for $500, Alex.
 

brett05

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TC in Mississippi said:
Clearly they have an emotional edge to them, and while that could aid them in a 5 game series I don't think it will. I think Toronto is a better team and they actually underperformed their expected win total by 5 games. Of course you still have to play the games.
Click to expand...

I like Texas starting pitching quite a bit more and with the offense slightly better as well, I think it's all theirs. As someone who really doesn't have a team in the race, I would not be surprised if this was the best series of the playoffs.
 

TC in Mississippi

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brett05 said:
I like Texas starting pitching quite a bit more and with the offense slightly better as well, I think it's all theirs. As someone who really doesn't have a team in the race, I would not be surprised if this was the best series of the playoffs.
Click to expand...

In the regular season Toronto was 2nd in overall pitching to the Rangers 13th, 3.79 ERA vs 4.38. In the rotation it was 1st vs 11th, 3.64 vs 4.38. If you look at recent numbers, let's look at the last 30 days, the Blue Jays have a 3.22 rotation ERA, second to Boston, while the Rangers are 15th with a 5.92. By no objective measure does Texas have a better rotation. It's all good though, we'll see. This will be a very emotional series and that, with a small 5 game sample size, lends itself to virtually any outcome.
 

fatbeard

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brett05 said:
If I were you, I'd steer clear of that. Not your strong suit.
Click to expand...

Please demonstrate evidence of the predictive value of "beast mode," rather than simply being a descriptor for past performance.

Thanks!
 

brett05

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TC in Mississippi said:
In the regular season Toronto was 2nd in overall pitching to the Rangers 13th, 3.79 ERA vs 4.38. In the rotation it was 1st vs 11th, 3.64 vs 4.38. If you look at recent numbers, let's look at the last 30 days, the Blue Jays have a 3.22 rotation ERA, second to Boston, while the Rangers are 15th with a 5.92. By no objective measure does Texas have a better rotation. It's all good though, we'll see. This will be a very emotional series and that, with a small 5 game sample size, lends itself to virtually any outcome.
Click to expand...
I'm speaking of Hamels, Darvish, Lewis. Those are the three I want over Toronto's three.
 

TL1961

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TC in Mississippi said:
In the regular season Toronto was 2nd in overall pitching to the Rangers 13th, 3.79 ERA vs 4.38. In the rotation it was 1st vs 11th, 3.64 vs 4.38. If you look at recent numbers, let's look at the last 30 days, the Blue Jays have a 3.22 rotation ERA, second to Boston, while the Rangers are 15th with a 5.92. By no objective measure does Texas have a better rotation. It's all good though, we'll see. This will be a very emotional series and that, with a small 5 game sample size, lends itself to virtually any outcome.
Click to expand...

It's the postseason, where things are different than they were in the entire 162 game season.

No longer does depth of rotation rule. Now it becomes "Who has the best Top 2?"
 

TC in Mississippi

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brett05 said:
I'm speaking of Hamels, Darvish, Lewis. Those are the three I want over Toronto's three.
Click to expand...

Statistically even with those three vs Happ, Sanchez and Estrada it's statistically just about even. Listen I think it's a great matchup but if talent wins out Toronto is a much better team overall. The run differential and the Pythagorean record for Texas really leads to the inarguable point that they overperformed. Heck, I think Boston really lucked out in not catching the Rangers for HF. Toronto is a formidable team. For most of the season I thought they were the best team in the AL until Boston proved to be a bit better down the stretch. I think Texas was a distance 3rd and if Cleveland's pitching staff didn't implode I think they were probably the 4th best team in the AL. Just an opinion, but an educated one.
 

TC in Mississippi

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TL1961 said:
It's the postseason, where things are different than they were in the entire 162 game season.

No longer does depth of rotation rule. Now it becomes "Who has the best Top 2?"
Click to expand...

I agree with that but I think those top 2 are fairly evenly matched, at least this season. Maybe the edge goes to Texas because of Hamels' playoff experience and record. Partly I'm picking Toronto because I think Texas' luck has to run out eventually.
 
DanTown

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I thought that maybe Britton was hurt when he went to Jimmenez and I thought it even weirder that he brought Jimmenez in like that in the middle of an inning. I think drastically changing a pitchers role (bringing him in middle of an inning when he's usually a starter) just makes it harder for him to get acclimated to the game. Likely doesn't change the outcome of the game but I would have gone to Britton instead of Jimmenez and hoped he got through the heart of their order for the next five outs.
 
DanTown

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brett05 said:
I disagree completely. They are 29 games over .500 against teams with a .500 or better record. The rest of teams that are over are only 37 games combined. That means that yes there have been in a few blowout losses, but when it comes to the very best teams, Texas enters beast mode. I can't see it going past 6 games with Texas moving on.
Click to expand...

So they're above .500 against good teams and below .500 against bad ones because they literally change their mindset and playing style against good teams?
 

DJMoore_is_fat

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I was thinking about the huge emotional victory from the Jays last night in walk off fashion. And how the victors of Wild Card games walk into the NLDS with momentum. I mean, it happened for us last year after Arrieta pounded the Pirates. I haven't looked up the stats yet but it seems like the Wild Card teams could possibly have an advantage against their NLDS opponent -- just in terms of momentum.

Of course we'd always want to secure a spot in the NLDS instead of a win-or-go-home Wild Card game. But it does seem like the Wild Card winner have some level of advantage just with momentum.
 
DanTown

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DJMoore_is_fat said:
I was thinking about the huge emotional victory from the Jays last night in walk off fashion. And how the victors of Wild Card games walk into the NLDS with momentum. I mean, it happened for us last year after Arrieta pounded the Pirates. I haven't looked up the stats yet but it seems like the Wild Card teams could possibly have an advantage against their NLDS opponent -- just in terms of momentum.

Of course we'd always want to secure a spot in the NLDS instead of a win-or-go-home Wild Card game. But it does seem like the Wild Card winner have some level of advantage just with momentum.
Click to expand...

2012
Cardinals - Lose NLCS
Orioles - Lose ALDS

2013
Pirates - Lose NLDS
Rays - Lose ALDS

2014
Giants - Win WS
Royals - Lose WS

2015
Astros - Lose ALDS
Cubs - Lose NCLS
 
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