IGT: Cubs @ Dodgers Game 3 Tuesday

SilenceS

Moderator
Staff member
Donator
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
21,672
Liked Posts:
9,485
2016NLCSlogo.png



National League Championship Series

Game 3

i
i
Chicago Cubs@Los Angeles Dodgers
11

Tuesday, October 18, 2016
7:08PM CDT

los-angeles-dodgers-dodger-stadium-wall-poster-rp4524.jpg

Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA

TV: FS1
Radio: ESPN 1000 WBBM 780

Series Information

GameResultsDateTimeTV
Game 1Chicago vs LA Dodgers10/15/167:07PM CDTFS1
Game 2Chicago vs LA Dodgers10/16/167:07PM CDTFS1
Game 3Chicago @ LA Dodgers10/18/167:07PM CDTFS1
Game 4Chicago @ LA Dodgers10/19/167:07PM CDTFS1
*Game 5Chicago @ LA Dodgers10/20/16FS1
*Game 6Chicago vs LA Dodgers10/22/16FS1
*Game 7Chicago vs LA Dodgers10/23/16FS1
*If Necessary




Pitching Matchup
CHC
Jake Arrieta
LAD
Rich Hill


CvEzSTyVYAAJJGd.jpg
 
Last edited:

SilenceS

Moderator
Staff member
Donator
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
21,672
Liked Posts:
9,485
Game 3 are always big swing games. Arrieta needs to bring his A game. I would think we would have a little shakeup in the lineup. Maybe Soler or Almora playing. I highly doubt Contreras is in the lineup.
 

Mr. Cub

2016 World Series Champs!
Joined:
Dec 13, 2010
Posts:
4,857
Liked Posts:
1,039
Location:
Earth
Arrieta already has one no no against this team, in this ballpark. I'll be stoked with a 1 hitter tonight.

Fucking Go Cubs!!!
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
I like our chances tonight, but nobody should think Hill is a pushover. He was awful in the NLDS but that curve is nasty, can come at you from different arm angles and the Cubs struggle with curveballs. Here's my best guess at a lineup:

Fowler CF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Zobrist RF
Baez 2B
Soler LF
Ross C
Russell SS
Arrieta P

The other possibility is Almora in RF with Zobrist staying in LF but my got tells me they go with Jorge.
 

DanTown

Well-known member
Joined:
Mar 31, 2009
Posts:
2,446
Liked Posts:
507
I like our chances tonight, but nobody should think Hill is a pushover. He was awful in the NLDS but that curve is nasty, can come at you from different arm angles and the Cubs struggle with curveballs. Here's my best guess at a lineup:

Fowler CF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Zobrist RF
Baez 2B
Soler LF
Ross C
Russell SS
Arrieta P

The other possibility is Almora in RF with Zobrist staying in LF but my got tells me they go with Jorge.

If you think Russell is struggling with the bat, you wouldn't move him to the eight spot, where you simply are not pitched to that much. The thing about Russell's six week slump is his K's are down (20K in 117 PA is a K rate of only 17.1%) his hits are down too. Tough to say whether that's bad BABIP luck or what but you rarely see a high K guy (like Russell was) drop his K's from the 23.6% he was to 17.1% and watch his BA fall from .243 pre September 1 to .179 it is since.
 

DJMoore_is_fat

New member
Joined:
Aug 26, 2012
Posts:
4,143
Liked Posts:
1,789
I want Baez in the 5th spot tonight behind Zobrist. And Heyward should be replaced by Almora -- who isn't much of a drop off defensively in RF. I'm concerned with playing Soler in tight playoff games with his atrocious defense. It's too risky. When he's in the OF, a double becomes a triple. It's a game of inches right now and his potential offense doesn't out weight his poor defense.

Russell has been awful offensively but I want to keep Baez at 2B and Russell at SS. Its the best defensive 2B/SS in the majors. We need to stay strong up the middle.

But Rizzo and Russell can't go 0-4 tonight. It will be difficult to win with zero production from either of them.
 

Parade_Rain

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Aug 23, 2012
Posts:
9,995
Liked Posts:
3,630
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
If you think Russell is struggling with the bat, you wouldn't move him to the eight spot, where you simply are not pitched to that much. The thing about Russell's six week slump is his K's are down (20K in 117 PA is a K rate of only 17.1%) his hits are down too. Tough to say whether that's bad BABIP luck or what but you rarely see a high K guy (like Russell was) drop his K's from the 23.6% he was to 17.1% and watch his BA fall from .243 pre September 1 to .179 it is since.
He isn't hitting the ball hard. It isn't bad luck.
 

Parade_Rain

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Aug 23, 2012
Posts:
9,995
Liked Posts:
3,630
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
...I'm concerned with playing Soler in tight playoff games with his atrocious defense. It's too risky. When he's in the OF, a double becomes a triple. It's a game of inches right now and his potential offense doesn't out weight his poor defense.
It certainly outweighed it last post-season.
 

Diehardfan

Well-known member
Joined:
Jun 10, 2010
Posts:
9,234
Liked Posts:
6,642
Location:
Western Burbs
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Chicago Blackhawks
When you've put up nothing but zeros in 14 of the last 15 innings played and unless there's a way of winning a game without scoring that I don't know about...you sacrifice some defense and hope the guy you put in lights a fire under the team. That's what Soler did last...maybe he can do it again.
 

clonetrooper264

Retired Bandwagon Mod
Staff member
Donator
Joined:
Apr 11, 2009
Posts:
23,316
Liked Posts:
7,394
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  2. Golden State Warriors
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Chicago Blackhawks
This team could use some hits so why not throw in Soler and see what happens?
 

DJMoore_is_fat

New member
Joined:
Aug 26, 2012
Posts:
4,143
Liked Posts:
1,789
It certainly outweighed it last post-season.

One of the worst things a manager could do is make a current decision based on year's past. Soler quite literally limped into the playoffs this year. He's barely played. This is a completely different season and what happened last year is completely irrelevant.
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
Listening to Maddon just now it does not sound like Heyward is going to sit anytime soon but he was not ready to share the lineup.
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
This team could use some hits so why not throw in Soler and see what happens?

Because this series isn't going to be won by offense, it's going to be won through run prevention. Maybe they try Soler as I predicted earlier but if they do sit Heyward (which sounds unlikely right now) I would prefer Almora.
 

Parade_Rain

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Aug 23, 2012
Posts:
9,995
Liked Posts:
3,630
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
One of the worst things a manager could do is make a current decision based on year's past. Soler quite literally limped into the playoffs this year. He's barely played. This is a completely different season and what happened last year is completely irrelevant.
No he didnt. He was on a roll before he got hurt again.
 

DJMoore_is_fat

New member
Joined:
Aug 26, 2012
Posts:
4,143
Liked Posts:
1,789
No he didnt. He was on a roll before he got hurt again.

You just contradicted yourself. Before he got hurt. He has barely played since. Not a good recipe for a guy who is a net-negative defender. Especially opposite Zobrist in the other corner OF spot.
 

Parade_Rain

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Aug 23, 2012
Posts:
9,995
Liked Posts:
3,630
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
You just contradicted yourself. Before he got hurt. He has barely played since. Not a good recipe for a guy who is a net-negative defender. Especially opposite Zobrist in the other corner OF spot.
I didn't contradict anything. How can he continue to hit, if he isn't in the lineup?
 

Parade_Rain

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Aug 23, 2012
Posts:
9,995
Liked Posts:
3,630
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
Because this series isn't going to be won by offense, it's going to be won through run prevention. Maybe they try Soler as I predicted earlier but if they do sit Heyward (which sounds unlikely right now) I would prefer Almora.
Defense doesn't score runs. It also puts too much pressure on those players who aren't hitting to do more than they should at the plate. He needs to make a change. I hope he at least drops Russell down to 8th and brings Baez and Contreras above Heyward.
 

DanTown

Well-known member
Joined:
Mar 31, 2009
Posts:
2,446
Liked Posts:
507
You cannot blindly say "run prevention matters, ergo Heyward/Almora is the play" because the question isn't who is the best hitter (or fielder) but who provides the most value when you weigh the positives and negatives of their bats. I think you should try and "hide" Soler in right field against the Dodgers for a few reasons

1. Here is Jake Arrieta's spray chart in 2016 versus LH (assuming the Dodgers go with a similar lineup they had in game 2 where they started 7 guys who hit left handed)
http://www.fangraphs.com/spraychart...6&cht1=hangtime&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=L

That's a lot of going the other way but not a ton of guys getting around and pulling the ball on Jake.

2. Jake's 27.9% fly ball rate was 11th lowest in the league

Jake is obviously not pitching as well lately as he did in April/May but his flyball rate is still quite low and not the kind of pitcher who you worry about giving up a ton of hard hit flyballs to right field on lefties

3. Jorge is a power hitter

When you're struggling, the key to getting out of the struggle is not to try and string together more hits but to get harder hits. The Cubs right now are in "trouble" offensively because they are simply not getting XBH. But Jorge is the kind of guy who can go 1-3 with a double or a HR at a higher frequency than Almora or Heyward will do that.

All in all, I do not see the need for a strong defensive right fielder against the Dodgers with Jake on the mound.

If I was making the lineup today, I'd go

Fowler - CF
Zobrist - 3B
Bryant - LF
Rizzo - 1B
Soler - RF
Russell - SS
Baez - 2B
Montero - C
Arrieta - P
 

DJMoore_is_fat

New member
Joined:
Aug 26, 2012
Posts:
4,143
Liked Posts:
1,789
I didn't contradict anything. How can he continue to hit, if he isn't in the lineup?

You said he was on a roll.....before he got hurt. But he did get hurt, so it's after the fact. And now he's had a long lay off. I just think its a bad idea to throw him into the fire in a season in which he only played 85 games and hit .230 to begin with -- and now is coming off his third injury of the year. Especially in light of the fact that even when healthy he's a terrible defender.

But, hey -- it's the playoffs. We need some runs and if plays and gives us some -- thank God. I wouldn't do it, but hey Heyward is giving us 0's so I don't think it'd be the worst call in the world.
 

Top