Offseason discussion/rumors

TC in Mississippi

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Yea, I think he over thinking it with trying to solve all Cubs need in 1 trade...

Plus

The Rays are looking for young SP to replace Archer

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I've seen speculation to that effect with Tampa Bay but they're really not hurting for pitching at all. Blake Snell is already up and is expected to be a true TOR solution and Brent Honeywell projects to be at least a solid MOR and probably better. Then they have a virtual stable of BOR and/or relief arms behind that. What they do need are quality MLB ready, or near ready, positional talent. After Willy Adames and Jake Bauers the pickin's are awfully slim. Soler and Happ would be two significant pieces for them better than anyone else they have coming in the near term. I would not give up Edwards, even with Colome coming back and I think Kiermaier for Almora is just swapping names and our FO is awfully invested in Almora. If they really want Archer I think there is a deal to be made but it will take some serious discussions to get it done.
 

beckdawg

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I dont get the backend. Keirmaier and Almora are about the same player with Almora being under control with more bat potential. Colome isnt a shut down closer and Edwards has bigger potential and under control. Happ Soler and another arm for Archer. I can see that. I dont get the back end part in the Cubs head.

After further inspection, Colome is under control until 2021. He did have an outstanding year, but I still dont want to give up Edwards. Maybe something else for him. I still dont get the Almora for Keirmaier. Almora is Theo first draft pick and is incredible in CF. I just dont get that swap.

If we're working under the assumption that the Rays would take that trade Bowden suggested, think the basic workings of the trade are Soler + Happ for Archer, Edwards for Colome and Almora for Keimaier. If that's something the rays find reasonable, I tend to agree with your thoughts. Almora vs Keimaier is probably in the cubs favor which... i mean I'm sure they can get more for him in a separate trade so I doubt they'd really mind excluding that. Colome vs Edwards is 4 years of control against 6 for Edwards. That's probably in TB's favor but again I'm not sure it's enough to matter to hold up a trade.

I've been reading various Rays stuff trying to get a feel for what their fans want. There is apparent interest in Montero as I've mentioned before. So, adding him into a Happ/Soler package makes some sense likely with $5-10 mil to offset his contract a bit. As a reference point, McCann was making $17 mil/year and the Yankees ate $5.5 mil each of the following 2 years. He was also worth a 50 grade prospect and a guy not in the yankees top 30 right now. In cubs terms, that's roughly equivalent to #5-13-ish prospect so guys like Zagunis, Underwood, De La Cruz, Clifton, Albertos, Hudson, Dewes, DJ Wilson, and Eddy Martinez.

From my point of view, I'd argue that Happ/Soler/Montero and say $5 mil is probably too little. Their OF depth is pretty porous right now. So, I could potentially see 5 years of control on Szczur interesting them or conversely, Mark Zagunis as they are both sort of similar 4th OF types. Szczur isn't going to be a star or even likely a starter but he's cheap and better than what they have. Also, they don't have much prospect depth above A ball in the OF. From there, I think cubs would likely need to add some pitching from their second tier be that Johnson, Stinnett, Williams, Tseng, Steele or Sands.

Overall, that may seem potentially cheap but the Rays front office has said they intend to be competitive. They might be able to net more quality by tanking a season or two but if they indeed are trying to remain competitive, a trade like this gives them 3 useful pieces today in Soler, Montero and Szczur/Zagunis, a quality prospect in Happ and a depth arm. And if you're essentially counting Soler as a top 50 type prospect he was, that's a top 25 prospect in Happ, a top 50 guy in Soler, two 50ish grade guys if we're counting that as Montero's value and a 45 grade arm.
 

chibears55

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I've seen speculation to that effect with Tampa Bay but they're really not hurting for pitching at all. Blake Snell is already up and is expected to be a true TOR solution and Brent Honeywell projects to be at least a solid MOR and probably better. Then they have a virtual stable of BOR and/or relief arms behind that. What they do need are quality MLB ready, or near ready, positional talent. After Willy Adames and Jake Bauers the pickin's are awfully slim. Soler and Happ would be two significant pieces for them better than anyone else they have coming in the near term. I would not give up Edwards, even with Colome coming back and I think Kiermaier for Almora is just swapping names and our FO is awfully invested in Almora. If they really want Archer I think there is a deal to be made but it will take some serious discussions to get it done.
I don't disagree with you...

The original trade offer from yesterday was Soler Happ and a SP prospect for Archer..
It was said that the Rays would want a SP prospect included

The article I posted today..I agree
I think the writer just used the original trade suggestion and just added a CF and Closer swap which doesn't really benefit the Cubs..

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DanTown

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Archer would be a great get but the Cubs need that second guy to go in a Happ based deal that is better than Soler. I love Jorge but his value isn't that high where I think he can be the second best player in a Archer deal. I would not be shocked to see either Baez or Candelario bandied about in that type of deal.

Part of the reason I'm very hesitant to trade for anyone of value in getting OF is that Jimenez is probably a late 2018/2019 starter in RF so you're really talking about at most two years of having any sort of availability for plate appearances for him. Also a reason why I wouldn't sign Fowler is the problem that Heyward stays and then in two years you've blocked a potential superstar OF for a 34 year old Dexter Fowler for two years.

I'd go something like Ryan Williams, Jeimer Candelario, Jorge Soler, Ian Happ, and a minor-league bullpen arm for Chris Archer. For Tampa, they could move either Jeimer or Longoria to 1B and Soler is probably the starting COF. Happ is likely a 2018 starter at 2B. Ryan Williams gives them organizational depth for SP.
 

brett05

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I would bet money on the fact that Soler, Happ, Dylan Cease and Oscar De La Cruz would get you Archer after a down year. Not a doubt in my mind. The problem is I seriously doubt the Cubs would pay that.

Now that is a completely different offer than what was originally proposed. Soler and two minor league pitchers do not get it done. Yeah a down year where in the AL East his era wa 4.02/FIP 3.81/200 innings again/ over 10 K/9.
 

beckdawg

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Archer would be a great get but the Cubs need that second guy to go in a Happ based deal that is better than Soler. I love Jorge but his value isn't that high where I think he can be the second best player in a Archer deal. I would not be shocked to see either Baez or Candelario bandied about in that type of deal.

Part of the reason I'm very hesitant to trade for anyone of value in getting OF is that Jimenez is probably a late 2018/2019 starter in RF so you're really talking about at most two years of having any sort of availability for plate appearances for him. Also a reason why I wouldn't sign Fowler is the problem that Heyward stays and then in two years you've blocked a potential superstar OF for a 34 year old Dexter Fowler for two years.

I'd go something like Ryan Williams, Jeimer Candelario, Jorge Soler, Ian Happ, and a minor-league bullpen arm for Chris Archer. For Tampa, they could move either Jeimer or Longoria to 1B and Soler is probably the starting COF. Happ is likely a 2018 starter at 2B. Ryan Williams gives them organizational depth for SP.

While I think your logic makes sense, I'm not really sure they'd want Candelario. They just traded for Duffy and unless they deal Longoria they are fairly set at 3B right now. Candelario is sort of interesting though. I think the cubs deal him this offseason because really don't see how he plays on the cubs and there's really not much point in sending him back to Iowa when he hit .333/.417/.542 there. Another possibility is a three team deal or a pseudo-three team deal where the cubs deal Candelario for something and potentially use some of that return in an Archer trade.

The 3B market is pretty atrocious this year. We're talking Gordon Beckham(-0.6 fWAR), Andres Blanco(0.1 fWAR), Aaron Hill(1.1 fWAR), Casey McGehee(-0.5 fWAR), Trevor Plouffe(-0.4 fWAR), Adam Rosales(2 fWAR), Ruben Tejada(-0.3 fWAR), Justin Turner(5.6 fWAR), and Luis Valbuena(2 fWAR). And the number of teams looking for 3B help right now is fairly lengthy. Projections on Candelario basically suggest he'd likely be an average 3B next year with some potential to be better than that. So, given he's cheap and given the lack of options other than Turner I could see him getting a fairly decent return. If the dodgers don't re-sign Turner, I think they make some sense. There's talk of them buying all the Sox things but there's been recent reports of them not complying with MLB debt rules and that they are $100's of millions in debt. The talk is that they aren't in dire situation but still trading for a guy like Candelario is a far cheaper way to go than someone like Frazier or re-signing Turner.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Archer would be a great get but the Cubs need that second guy to go in a Happ based deal that is better than Soler. I love Jorge but his value isn't that high where I think he can be the second best player in a Archer deal. I would not be shocked to see either Baez or Candelario bandied about in that type of deal.

Part of the reason I'm very hesitant to trade for anyone of value in getting OF is that Jimenez is probably a late 2018/2019 starter in RF so you're really talking about at most two years of having any sort of availability for plate appearances for him. Also a reason why I wouldn't sign Fowler is the problem that Heyward stays and then in two years you've blocked a potential superstar OF for a 34 year old Dexter Fowler for two years.

I'd go something like Ryan Williams, Jeimer Candelario, Jorge Soler, Ian Happ, and a minor-league bullpen arm for Chris Archer. For Tampa, they could move either Jeimer or Longoria to 1B and Soler is probably the starting COF. Happ is likely a 2018 starter at 2B. Ryan Williams gives them organizational depth for SP.

You make an interesting point regarding Soler vs Candelerio. Soler has a spotty MLB resume but a much higher ceiling than Candelerio but what would teams consider as their individual floors? Is Candelerio a surefire above replacement level MLB player? Is Soler at least an average MLB player assuming reasonable health? beckdawg makes an interesting point regarding the relative lack of 3B options on the market as well while OF with upside aren't at a shortage at all. If you were talkign Sonny Gray instead of Archer who would Oakland prefer at the top of a deal? I honestly hadn't considered Candelerio as I had thought that his value would be very little seeing as the league knows he's positionally blocked. It's a lot to chew on but if the Cubs like one of these guys I do think they have the pieces to get one.
 

beckdawg

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You make an interesting point regarding Soler vs Candelerio. Soler has a spotty MLB resume but a much higher ceiling than Candelerio but what would teams consider as their individual floors? Is Candelerio a surefire above replacement level MLB player? Is Soler at least an average MLB player assuming reasonable health? beckdawg makes an interesting point regarding the relative lack of 3B options on the market as well while OF with upside aren't at a shortage at all. If you were talkign Sonny Gray instead of Archer who would Oakland prefer at the top of a deal? I honestly hadn't considered Candelerio as I had thought that his value would be very little seeing as the league knows he's positionally blocked. It's a lot to chew on but if the Cubs like one of these guys I do think they have the pieces to get one.

Oakland has Matt Chapman in AAA. Not sure they'd deal for Candelario either. And for my money anyways, I don't want Gray. I mean if he were cheap.... and I mean cheaper than he's realistically going to be I'd take him. But I honestly think he's more of a #2/3 starter. I don't really see him and Archer as being on the same tier. I think Archer needs to figure some stuff out but if he does he can easily be a top 5 type pitcher in baseball. Gray is fine but I just don't see that he has more upside than the 3.7 fWAR he had in 2015. To me he's a James Shields/Jordan Zimmermann type pitcher. Useful players no doubt but I'm not giving up anywhere near as much for him as I would for Archer.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Oakland has Matt Chapman in AAA. Not sure they'd deal for Candelario either. And for my money anyways, I don't want Gray. I mean if he were cheap.... and I mean cheaper than he's realistically going to be I'd take him. But I honestly think he's more of a #2/3 starter. I don't really see him and Archer as being on the same tier. I think Archer needs to figure some stuff out but if he does he can easily be a top 5 type pitcher in baseball. Gray is fine but I just don't see that he has more upside than the 3.7 fWAR he had in 2015. To me he's a James Shields/Jordan Zimmermann type pitcher. Useful players no doubt but I'm not giving up anywhere near as much for him as I would for Archer.

I guess the interesting thing about Gray is that a year ago he was being touted as a top 10 pitcher in MLB and he fell off the map in a season. Also the Cubs were said to really like him due to his similarity in stuff to Jake Arrieta. I'd be curious if the still feel that way. Another pitcher who would be intriguing is Shelby Miller who the new Diamondbacks regime are making available. I watched a fair amount of Braves baseball in 2015 and was really impressed with him at that time and the cubs were said to like him as well. He also turned it around a bit in AAA after failing spectacularly in AZ. Consider the kings ransom they gave up to get him you would have to wonder what they'd want to give him up now.
 

beckdawg

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I guess the interesting thing about Gray is that a year ago he was being touted as a top 10 pitcher in MLB and he fell off the map in a season. Also the Cubs were said to really like him due to his similarity in stuff to Jake Arrieta. I'd be curious if the still feel that way. Another pitcher who would be intriguing is Shelby Miller who the new Diamondbacks regime are making available. I watched a fair amount of Braves baseball in 2015 and was really impressed with him at that time and the cubs were said to like him as well. He also turned it around a bit in AAA after failing spectacularly in AZ. Consider the kings ransom they gave up to get him you would have to wonder what they'd want to give him up now.

I'm sure I've mentioned it here but I really didn't like Gray before this year either that is to say to the level people discussed on him. Incidentally, I think I brought up Miller as another example of someone I wasn't a huge fan of. Think at the time I was comparing Hendricks to them saying I'd rather have Hendricks than both.... that turned out to be a good call in 2016. I can't say with certainty but my guess is that Gray's fastball is just too straight. Even when he's pitched well hitters have crushed it. On his career hitters are hitting .271/.375/.399 against his 4 seam and .293/.344/.416 against his 2 seam. His slider and curve appear to be pretty strong both having fantastic K rates. The thing is though, he's never really shown to be an elite k guy even in the minors so I have trouble believing in a sudden change in what he is. In the case of Arrieta, he had strong showings in the minors with his K rate. Like I said, if you're buying Gray at #2/3 starter prices I might be interested in him as a Lackey replacement but I guess I just don't see top end for him and moving to a smaller park I doubt is going to help his fastball issues.

Going back to Candelario though... there's some interesting arms in the 80-100 range on mlb.com's top 100 who belong to teams who might be trade partners. Atlanta has Mike Soroka at #90 and they are apparently wanting to compete this year. I'm dubious that Rio Ruiz and Adonis Garcia are going to fix that offense. Dodgers I mentioned previously but they have Yadier Alvarez in A who would be super interesting as the #91 prospect. SF has Tyler Beede at #98. They traded away Duffy for Moore. They have Eduardo Nunez but he's a 2018 FA and i'm no entirely sure you'd want to rely on him to have another career year. He has 2.1 fWAR over 1839 career PAs. Adding Candelario would give them some depth as Nunez could play a utility infield type role.

Frankly, if the Dodgers would consider Alvarez for Candelario + something minor I'd do that deal today. He's only in A ball but he had 81 K's in 59.1 innings. Also for what it's worth, even if they do re-sign Turner, Candelario still might make sense given they no longer have Utley at 2B. You could move Turner to 2B and Candelario to 3B. 2B is just as ugly with Utley being the top name and it falls off hard after him.
 

anotheridiot

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I don't get the love fest for Archer.

Other than back tracking and saying that they should have never traded him and Hak for Garza? All that is left from that secondary deal is Grimmer and CJ Edwards.
 

beckdawg

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I don't get the love fest for Archer.

Archer is one of the best k guys in the majors. Among qualified starters, his 10.42 k/9 was 6th best though sadly due to Jose Fernadez's death there's only 4 guys ahead of him now. On top of that he's young(28) and under control for 5 more years for very cheap. He has some flaws which is why he's potentially available but he also could very well fix those issues and be one of if not the best pitcher not named Kershaw.
 

TC in Mississippi

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I don't get the love fest for Archer.

Archer has a career 3.51 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 9.34 K/9 and 3.01 BB/9. His BB rate is slightly concerning but not in light of the K's which have been signifigantly better in the last 2 years 10.70/9 in 2015 and 10.42/9 in 2016. Plus he's done this pitching in the AL East. If he pitched in the NL you'd be looking at a FIP of about 3 or below and can you imagine his ERA with the Cubs defense behind him? On top of that he's ridiculously cheap

2017 28 $4,916,666
2018 29 $6,416,667
2019 30 $7,666,667
2020 31 *$9,000,000 $9M Team Option, $1.75M Buyout
2021 32 *$11,000,000 $11M Team Option, $250k Buyout

Think about that for a second. For the length of the deal he'll be paid much less than a #5 starter costs on today's market, your injury risk is severely mitigated by the option years and he's never posted less than 3 WAR since his 1st season in MLB. Let's look at it another way, in his next 3 years, the heart of his prime, he will make $19 mil. The recently departed Jason Hammel is expected to sign a contract for 4/$55 mil. Andrew Cashner just signed a 1 year deal for $10 mil and I'm not sure he's a starting pitcher. I guess my question to you is what's not to love?
 

brett05

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And you all make the case on why he will get more in trade
 

TC in Mississippi

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Archer is one of the best k guys in the majors. Among qualified starters, his 10.42 k/9 was 6th best though sadly due to Jose Fernadez's death there's only 4 guys ahead of him now. On top of that he's young(28) and under control for 5 more years for very cheap. He has some flaws which is why he's potentially available but he also could very well fix those issues and be one of if not the best pitcher not named Kershaw.

Yes, he has some flaws but the upside outweighs them. The main reason he could be available is that they cannot afford to pay for position players and they can continue to trot out a decent pitching staff with house talent for the next few years. They could very well trot out a team at about $50-$65 mil in payroll in 2017 and without a stadium deal that number isn't rising anytime soon.
 

BaBaBlacksheep

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I hope he fired his agent after signing that deal.

Would love for them to pick him up. Just hope it doesn't cost Cease. Would be nice to develop our own ace for once.
 

TC in Mississippi

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And you all make the case on why he will get more in trade

Except that his market excludes the AL East including teams like Boston, NY and Toronto who probably could put packages together for him. His realistic market includes the Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Rangers, Braves and maybe Cardinals. There really isn't another team that could afford the prospect costs and TB think they can compete in the next couple of years. What a pitcher is ultimately worth and what he can fetch based on the market available to his team are two different things.
 

brett05

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Except that his market excludes the AL East including teams like Boston, NY and Toronto who probably could put packages together for him. His realistic market includes the Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Rangers, Braves and maybe Cardinals. There really isn't another team that could afford the prospect costs and TB think they can compete in the next couple of years. What a pitcher is ultimately worth and what he can fetch based on the market available to his team are two different things.

I don't think you can eliminate any of the AL East teams. That's another reason why the value will be higher and not lower. I'd also add in a team like the Twins to that list as they have the prospects. You are speaking of 7-10 teams possibly. That should raise the value above and not available on a discount.
 

TC in Mississippi

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I don't think you can eliminate any of the AL East teams. That's another reason why the value will be higher and not lower. I'd also add in a team like the Twins to that list as they have the prospects. You are speaking of 7-10 teams possibly. That should raise the value above and not available on a discount.

Tampa Bay has said repeatedly they won't trade in Division so I think it does exclude the East and why in the world would the Twins trade for a pitcher when they're likely 3 years from competition? The Braves are a different story as they look to be gearing up to compete in 2018.

I think 7-10 teams is way high. The following would almost certainly be excluded

Red Sox
Yankees
Orioles
Blue Jays
Indians
Tigers
Royals
White Sox
Twins
Mariners
Angels
A's
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Phillies
Pirates
Brewers
Reds
Giants
Diamondbacks
Padres

I think that leaves 7 teams. The only team I added to the list really are the Rockies and they'd be extremely unlikely. The Cardinals would be a huge stretch in that their farm is depleted and leaving, again, Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Rangers and Braves all of who could have the type of positional talent TB seeks.
 

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