Offseason discussion/rumors

TC in Mississippi

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One other interesting thing about the whole ATL situation, if this image from a braves forum is accurate, that means they have 7 unprotected guy eligible for the rule 5 draft after this season(all the guys in red) as part of their top 30 guys. That's a fair amount of guys to have to move to your 40 man or leave unprotected. Given Wisler, Sims, Fried and Blair are on their 40 man already and probably wont make the 25 man I don't think it's that outlandish to suggest those guys may be available to some extent. Probably not all of them but those guys make the most sense to move in order to fill out some of the rough sides in their offense.

I have a fairly reliable source with contacts in the Braves organization that I talk to from time to time and he says that for whatever reason Sean Newcomb has fallen out of favor with the FO and is definitely available in the right deal. I wonder what the Cubs brass thinks of him? His BB/9 is way too high but the Cubs organization is good with correcting control and command issues. Despite that he pitched 140 innings for AA last year compiling a 3.86 ERA/3.18 FIP, 9.77 K/9 and a measly .26 HR/9. I saw him pitch here in Mississippi twice last year and he's a big strong lefty that has an intimidation factor on the mound. He's being compared to a young Jon Lester and I see the comp. Curious what it would take to get him.
 

beckdawg

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I have a fairly reliable source with contacts in the Braves organization that I talk to from time to time and he says that for whatever reason Sean Newcomb has fallen out of favor with the FO and is definitely available in the right deal. I wonder what the Cubs brass thinks of him? His BB/9 is way too high but the Cubs organization is good with correcting control and command issues. Despite that he pitched 140 innings for AA last year compiling a 3.86 ERA/3.18 FIP, 9.77 K/9 and a measly .26 HR/9. I saw him pitch here in Mississippi twice last year and he's a big strong lefty that has an intimidation factor on the mound. He's being compared to a young Jon Lester and I see the comp. Curious what it would take to get him.

Guys like Newcomb always scare me. That is to say guys with high walk rates. I think he has a relatively decent floor as a LH reliever though. The larger problem I have is Atlanta rarely sells low these days and I don't really think you can pay for his upside. You need to pay on what he is today. For example, I'd likely give up Candelario for him and maybe also Szczur if they were interested in that but I don't think that's frankly enough given his potential.

Edit: Looked a bit more into him. He does keep the ball down fairly well. So he's got that going for him and his k rate is tremendous. I'd need more data that frankly we as the public don't have to see exactly what's up with his walk rate. Might just be fastball command.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Guys like Newcomb always scare me. That is to say guys with high walk rates. I think he has a relatively decent floor as a LH reliever though. The larger problem I have is Atlanta rarely sells low these days and I don't really think you can pay for his upside. You need to pay on what he is today. For example, I'd likely give up Candelario for him and maybe also Szczur if they were interested in that but I don't think that's frankly enough given his potential.

Edit: Looked a bit more into him. He does keep the ball down fairly well. So he's got that going for him and his k rate is tremendous. I'd need more data that frankly we as the public don't have to see exactly what's up with his walk rate. Might just be fastball command.

It's mostly command at least from the little I've observed. He has a solid fastball with some nice movement which is where a lot of the comparisons to Lester begin even before you get to the physical similarities. He really looks the part on the mound but as you say the walks are way too high. I have no idea what they would want for him but they still need some pieces going forward. I'd be curious if Victor Caratini would interest them. I'm not sure he's a starter on a championship team but I do think he's an MLB catcher. Candelerio could be a decent fit for them as well. What I don't know is why he's fallen out of favor.
 

beckdawg

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It's mostly command at least from the little I've observed. He has a solid fastball with some nice movement which is where a lot of the comparisons to Lester begin even before you get to the physical similarities. He really looks the part on the mound but as you say the walks are way too high. I have no idea what they would want for him but they still need some pieces going forward. I'd be curious if Victor Caratini would interest them. I'm not sure he's a starter on a championship team but I do think he's an MLB catcher. Candelerio could be a decent fit for them as well. What I don't know is why he's fallen out of favor.

Caratini would be some what weird given I think this front office was the one that traded him in the first place to the cubs.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Caratini would be some what weird given I think this front office was the one that traded him in the first place to the cubs.

Yes, before it was certain he would stick at catcher and before John Hart and John Coppolella were hired. Frank Wren made the trade. Different organization there now and they are having all sorts of trouble developing catchers.
 

beckdawg

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Yes, before it was certain he would stick at catcher and before John Hart and John Coppolella were hired. Frank Wren made the trade. Different organization there now and they are having all sorts of trouble developing catchers.

Fair enough. I was thinking it was Coppy who made the trade but the series of moves the cubs made with them all sorta blur together. That being said, they would have to be pretty low on Newcomb I think. Even as a secondary piece, Caratini isn't really a huge get. He's a decent player no doubt but seems to me he's more just "a guy." I feel that sort of works with Candelario because he may be a little better than "a guy" and he's ready today which obviously usually comes at an increased price. Caratini is probably a full year or more away. Who knows though...
 

TC in Mississippi

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Fair enough. I was thinking it was Coppy who made the trade but the series of moves the cubs made with them all sorta blur together. That being said, they would have to be pretty low on Newcomb I think. Even as a secondary piece, Caratini isn't really a huge get. He's a decent player no doubt but seems to me he's more just "a guy." I feel that sort of works with Candelario because he may be a little better than "a guy" and he's ready today which obviously usually comes at an increased price. Caratini is probably a full year or more away. Who knows though...

I think Caratini is more than just a guy if for no other reason than his plate discipline. He projects as somewhere around .275/.350/.400 and could be a doubles machine. He doesn't have the kind of power you'd like for the position but if you get that power elsewhere he'd be more than serviceable. Truth be told I like his MLB chances better than Candelerio but who knows?
 

beckdawg

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I think Caratini is more than just a guy if for no other reason than his plate discipline. He projects as somewhere around .275/.350/.400 and could be a doubles machine. He doesn't have the kind of power you'd like for the position but if you get that power elsewhere he'd be more than serviceable. Truth be told I like his MLB chances better than Candelerio but who knows?

My view is he's a back up C which is fine but I really don't see much more upside than that. From what I've read he's ok defensively but no great. Obviously C's are a pain in the ass to find so maybe you argue his skillset plays up a bit but put it this way, I don't think he's that close to being a top 100 type guy. Candelario doesn't have much of a ceiling himself but projections put his floor as already like 2+ fWAR type guy. He's probably not a starter on a playoff caliber team but 3B is almost as barren as C these days.
 

CSF77

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Newcomb is intriguing. He has gotten it up to 99. His curve spin rate is around 2900 which is eliete levels.

Major league average is 2450 and the MLB leader among LHP was at 2905 minimum 50 curveballs.).

So that is a plus for sure. From what I've read it all about his ability to locate his fastball. His velocity is negated by his ability to locate it regularly. This has lead him to have to dial down his fastball to gain more control of locating it more.

He is still very rough but that talent could be special if he is able to locate his 4 seem regularly.

So he is worth looking at pretty seriously.
 

beckdawg

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Honestly with regard to Newcomb I sort of wonder if he just falls into the trap of trying to throw it too hard. I'm by no means a pitching coach but it stands to reason if you can throw upper 90's you're probably generally relying on that a lot. And the thing is the harder you throw the more likely you are to lose control of it. I wonder some what if it would benefit him to do what the cubs have done with some of their pitchers which is to take away their best pitch and make him throw some other stuff. For example, teach him a sinker and tell him not to throw his 4 seam fastball. Presumably a sinker would do well for him as it does for Lester who he's drawn comps to. Lester doesn't use his sinker a ton(13% last year) but he locates it marginally better than his 4 seam(10% vs 8% walk rate).
 

CSF77

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Honestly with regard to Newcomb I sort of wonder if he just falls into the trap of trying to throw it too hard. I'm by no means a pitching coach but it stands to reason if you can throw upper 90's you're probably generally relying on that a lot. And the thing is the harder you throw the more likely you are to lose control of it. I wonder some what if it would benefit him to do what the cubs have done with some of their pitchers which is to take away their best pitch and make him throw some other stuff. For example, teach him a sinker and tell him not to throw his 4 seam fastball. Presumably a sinker would do well for him as it does for Lester who he's drawn comps to. Lester doesn't use his sinker a ton(13% last year) but he locates it marginally better than his 4 seam(10% vs 8% walk rate).

Going from 4 to 2 seem is basically making a fly ball pitcher throw more grounders.

Word is his change plays off his fastball and has good action also. So he has the tools. Curve has good shape. I believe he needs to sit on his curve more in general and use a change fastball combo vs RH.

Like I said. He needs to learn to locate his fastball more than try to throw it by them. When he figures he can get by with weak contact vs trying to blow it past them; then he will be ready to improve.

From what I've seen guys with plus curves can become eliete just by learning to locate it and change speeds with it. If he masters his curve like that where hitters are expecting it and he comes in with a 95 over the inner corner it should be strike 3 more than not as they just couldn't pull the trigger.

So how he pitches is just important. He has the tools to be special
 

beckdawg

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TR Sullivan ✔ @Sullivan_Ranger
Source says Rangers have signed Tyson Ross...no word yet on the contract except it is a one-year deal... Rangers haven't confirmed
 

TC in Mississippi

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TR Sullivan ✔ @Sullivan_Ranger
Source says Rangers have signed Tyson Ross...no word yet on the contract except it is a one-year deal... Rangers haven't confirmed

Disappointing but it's pretty clear the Cubs weren't interested in him on a one year pact. Any guesses on money? I'd say $8 mil.
 

beckdawg

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Also

The Cubs have agreed on a salary to avoid arbitration with star righty Jake Arrieta, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll receive $15.6375MM in his final trip through the arb process.
 

beckdawg

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I'm sort of wondering if that isn't a blessing in disguise that he went to texas. On the one hand, I was fine with the idea of brining him in. It's obviously a fairly low risk signing for a guy who in the past at least had been pretty decent. However, he'll be 30 on opening day. That's not exactly "getting younger." I sort of hope this is a push toward giving a young guy a chance. I'm not particularly thrilled by the cubs options in that regard right now but even if they fail you learn something.

Common logic would be now that Ross is gone Wood gets a strong look. I sort of hope they don't do that at least not for the #6 starter. If they want him back over say Dunesing then fine but I'm sort of down with the idea of rolling the dice with your depth starters. There's a guy who's between 24 and 29 right now who will unexpectedly blossom in the next few years. There always is. Whether or not the cubs front office finds him who knows but you don't find the guy if you don't look for him.
 

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