Trying to make sense of Pace's vision

Dragon Slayer · Mar 24, 2017

Can someone help me out here? We've now had 3 FA periods and 2 drafts of Pace and I think most of us have a decent feel for him. The problem I have with him is I just don't see his vision or strategy. If he even has one. I'll try and take a stab at it and see if it makes sense to anyone else. I would say his plan is to be fiscally conservative in FA each year and rarely sign anyone to a multi year deal giving us cap flexibility. He just signs underachievers on 1 year prove it deals and if they succeed (Hicks) he re-ups and if they don't then he lets them go. If he does hand out multi year contracts, they are usually all team friendly and we are able to get out of them after a year.

The 1 year prove it deals for underachievers make sense to a point. Try and find a few diamonds in the rough and help them revitalize their career while being cheap. The problem is none of these guys are really going to turn into building blocks. Pace has also thrown out a few 'WTF' contracts in FA though. Most recently that would be Glennon, but you can also count Royal, Barber, Massie, Sims and probably a few others I can't think of off the top of my head. I will say I am okay with the Glennon signing, I just think we overpaid for him when we didn't need too.

So, essentially Pace is doing very little through FA to build the team. My line of thinking is that Pace wants to construct his team and main core of players entirely through the draft. Sounds great, but how long does that take? This is year 3 and our roster is worse then it was when he started. He wants to get younger, which he has done, but you can't have an entire roster of 23 year olds. It doesn't help that the 2015 draft has been a complete dud to date. Crossing my fingers that White isn't a completely useless NFL player. In the draft, Pace has historically stuck to his BPA and finding 'value' picks. In 2016, he worked the draft well and moved up and down the board to get the players he wanted so I'll give him credit there.

Back to my original thought, what the hell is Pace trying to accomplish? Does he have a vision? I think he does, but his clock is running low on time and his job isn't going to be safe if the Bears turn in another 3-13 season.

legendxofxlink · Mar 24, 2017

WindyCity · Mar 24, 2017

They are still deleting people from the team, Cutler was the final big name that was going to be cleansed.

-He has rebuilt the front 7 and OL and gotten better in both trenches.

-He has improved the pass rush.

But he also has a lot of things still on the to do list.

I really think the 3-13 season hurt the plan more than we think. Not only did it all but guarantee that Fox is done next year but it turned off a number of the big free agents that they pursued.

WindyCity · Mar 24, 2017

David Kaplan on ESPN said that he has heard from a Bears source he trusts that Pace will get a 2nd coach no matter what happens.

Raskolnikov · Mar 24, 2017

I think by signing Pedophile Sanchez, (rapey sex with a minor at USC, dated a minor with Jets), it opens the door to selling Virginia on drafting Mixon.

Thats the best I can make of it.

But seriously, Pace is painting a QB smokescreen for the draft or he has gone legit "full Special person."

Raskolnikov · Mar 24, 2017

HawkBear said:
Can someone help me out here? We've now had 3 FA periods and 2 drafts of Pace and I think most of us have a decent feel for him. The problem I have with him is I just don't see his vision or strategy. If he even has one. I'll try and take a stab at it and see if it makes sense to anyone else. I would say his plan is to be fiscally conservative in FA each year and rarely sign anyone to a multi year deal giving us cap flexibility. He just signs underachievers on 1 year prove it deals and if they succeed (Hicks) he re-ups and if they don't then he lets them go. If he does hand out multi year contracts, they are usually all team friendly and we are able to get out of them after a year.

The 1 year prove it deals for underachievers make sense to a point. Try and find a few diamonds in the rough and help them revitalize their career while being cheap. The problem is none of these guys are really going to turn into building blocks. Pace has also thrown out a few 'WTF' contracts in FA though. Most recently that would be Glennon, but you can also count Royal, Barber, Massie, Sims and probably a few others I can't think of off the top of my head. I will say I am okay with the Glennon signing, I just think we overpaid for him when we didn't need too.

So, essentially Pace is doing very little through FA to build the team. My line of thinking is that Pace wants to construct his team and main core of players entirely through the draft. Sounds great, but how long does that take? This is year 3 and our roster is worse then it was when he started. He wants to get younger, which he has done, but you can't have an entire roster of 23 year olds. It doesn't help that the 2015 draft has been a complete dud to date. Crossing my fingers that White isn't a completely useless NFL player. In the draft, Pace has historically stuck to his BPA and finding 'value' picks. In 2016, he worked the draft well and moved up and down the board to get the players he wanted so I'll give him credit there.

Back to my original thought, what the hell is Pace trying to accomplish? Does he have a vision? I think he does, but his clock is running low on time and his job isn't going to be safe if the Bears turn in another 3-13 season.

I agree. He has shown he can do the scouting part of GM. The representive part. And manage in house personalities he is stuck with for now. He has shown poor roster planning and depth management throughout his tenure so far.

I'm fine with giving him a chance to learn the job if he continues to excel at the most important parts....drafting well and not overpaying bad free agent contracts. Someday he is going to have to hit on some really good free agents, but for now I'm ok with waiting how his roster and second coach turn out.

I'm just getting a worse and worse feeling about it, and expecting to have to wait half a decade before the Bears are not an embarrassement 2 more coaches and a new GM from now and probably a couple years to recover from Pace.

laputan · Mar 24, 2017

53 man roster, draft 2 good players per year as does every other team = Super Bowl in 2043

Mongo_76 · Mar 24, 2017

My evaluation of his vision is 1-15 and the #1 pick next year.

Broc · Mar 24, 2017

Raskolnikov · Mar 24, 2017

laputan said:

When I look at this picture, I see a strange version of the show "People of Earth", where this is a picture of reptilian Virginia grooming a child Pace for his future job.

Raskolnikov · Mar 24, 2017

Mongo_76 said:
My evaluation of his vision is 1-15 and the #1 pick next year.

absolutely. If intentional ...genius. If unintentional, I can still laugh because its the best thing for us.

ZOMBIE@CTESPN · Mar 24, 2017

he missed on everyone he targeted except glennon cause he paid 10 mil more then anyone else was willing to.

what i mean by this is you can see what his plan is by the players he targets not the players he ends up with. He wanted Mariotta and Wentz but didnt have the ammo or most likely balls to seal the deal. He went after various DBs and a RT and wouldnt go over a certain $ amount

I think we going to be bad to average for a pretty long time cause his backup plan stinks

Dragon Slayer · Mar 24, 2017

WindyCity said:
David Kaplan on ESPN said that he has heard from a Bears source he trusts that Pace will get a 2nd coach no matter what happens.

Interesting. If credible, it's like they have already given up on Fox. Not really a surprise given the performance, but why keep him around another year? Probably comes down to the money owed to him, which is bullshit. They will lose more money by turning in a 1-15 season. Might as well just cut bait and pay him.

PrideisBears · Mar 24, 2017

Pace's vision so far to me looks like a guy who is wearing beer goggles while taking multiple shots of gin; out of sorts. Now he has an opportunity to look more sober with the draft coming up but imo i dont expect even a mediocre record for the Bears

JP Hochbaum · Mar 24, 2017

I see Pace doing a few things to build this team:

1) Draft wise he has done well in not drafting total busts. Grasu and White could be called busts depending on how you label injuries, but the jury is still out on them. And he has brought in guys that could see multiple pro bowls with Whitehair, Howard, Floyd and Goldman. So he is establishing a good base there.

2) Free agency he is treating it like a draft of players on their second contracts. He pays more for guys that have a good track record and less for guys that are more prove it players. Which is how free agency should be done in rebuilding mode as you hope by year 3-4 those guys are on the tail end of their deals and you drafted someone to replace them.

3) With qb I think it has to do with lack of viable options. Outside of Dak Prescott last year there doesn't seem to have been a good qb prospect outside of the top 3 picks or so, and he did try his best to trade up and get Marriota. I feel he doesn't want to reach unless he thinks there is a guy worth reaching for. As for Glennon, he is another 1 year deal prove it player who we paid way too much for but we also had plenty of money to spare so we can't look at the money part of it as it doesn't prevent the Bears from spending elsewhere.

So far his plan is to repopulate this team with under 30 talent and see how they develop. That part he has done, and now it really a wait and see approach as I think this year is going to tell us more about how he has built up young depth.

Raskolnikov · Mar 24, 2017

HawkBear said:
Interesting. If credible, it's like they have already given up on Fox. Not really a surprise given the performance, but why keep him around another year? Probably comes down to the money owed to him, which is bullshit. They will lose more money by turning in a 1-15 season. Might as well just cut bait and pay him.

for sure about the money on Fox's contract and the 2017 schedule. Its better to let Fox take the blame for this period, and clean house after its over. Rather than spread the 2017 blame onto the next coach too, because we are going to win 5 games tops.

As somebody else pointed out, if Howard were to go down...zero win season is possible unless McPhee, Floyd, Trevaithon, Prince Amaka, Demps all turn up roses and Goldman stays healthy.

The defense might keep us in stuff...I just hate to wear out that unit even in a lost year because of complete managerial incompetence on offense.

And for the record I am not a fan of the inevitable 300 carries we will try to put on Howard in a lost season. Fucking Fox man. I try to be patient and calm down and convince myself these guys are professionals and know more than us and threads like DJ's are ridiculous, but then I am reminded these guys are actually complete fucktards and are in way over their heads in the thinking department compared to many many many individuals I have encountered on forums over the years.

I'm walking back...Pace is a complete fucking idiot. there is no other answer. Have fun with him, I'll see you all when its over or look for me burning straw effigies of the Hobbit loggains and virginia at training camp. Pace and Fox too.

BearDown104 · Mar 24, 2017

I truly believe he is being frugal in hopes of resigning his own players when they come up for it and not strapped to ludacris FA contracts. I also believe we will see a very formidable team in 2 more drafts, which I'm sure he sold them on a 5 year total gut job/rebuild. I like what he's doing. There's no quick fix in the NFL and we all knew, or should have, it was gonna be ugly to start! His first draft was an abomination and that has me a bit worried. I believe when the young core (1-2 years) is ready you'll see him spend more in FA to address glaring needs for a contending team.

Dragon Slayer · Mar 24, 2017

BearDown104 said:
I truly believe he is being frugal in hopes of resigning his own players when they come up for it and not strapped to ludacris FA contracts. I also believe we will see a very formidable team in 2 more drafts, which I'm sure he sold them on a 5 year total gut job/rebuild. I like what he's doing. There's no quick fix in the NFL and we all knew, or should have, it was gonna be ugly to start! His first draft was an abomination and that has me a bit worried. I believe when the young core (1-2 years) is ready you'll see him spend more in FA to address glaring needs for a contending team.

This just simply isn't true though. Bottom dweller teams jump up into playoff contention all the time in one year and its going to take the Bears five years to be competitive? That just isn't right.

baredown · Mar 24, 2017

HawkBear said:
Can someone help me out here?

Sure, be happy to. Pace's vision seems pretty obvious at this point:

1] Build through the draft, taking a long term perspective in doing so, not an immediate needs-based perspective;

2] Use a Best Value approach in making draft selections. If he can trade down and still get similar value, he'll do it (see last year's #2 getting converted to Whitehair & three fourth round choices, after Chris Jones went off the board...). If he has opportunity to trade up at reasonable cost to get value, he'll do that too (see moving up to get Floyd; also see moving up to get Kwiatkowski, even though he was obviously going to sit behind Travathian & Freeman last year...)

3] At the top of the draft, be willing to accept the risks with ultra-high ceiling players that have lower floors, but also the potential to be difference makers (see White & Floyd...)

4] Have a bias toward building out from the trenches (five of his six 1st thru 3rd round choices have been along the line or edge...)

5] Use free agency as short term solutions to fill holes. Don't try to use free agents as key elements in the rebuild. They'll either be too expensive, or not good enough. (General rule of thumb, NFL teams don't let their key players get away into free agency...)

6] Building the team's talent base is a long term thing. Don't get swept up in the pressure to DO SOMETHING now.

Whether you think Pace is doing a good, adequate, or crappy job at executing his vision is a separate question. But as I said, the vision itself seems pretty obvious, based on his actions & comments over the past 2 1/2 years...

Dragon Slayer · Mar 24, 2017

baredown said:
Sure, be happy to. Pace's vision seems pretty obvious at this point:

1] Build through the draft, taking a long term perspective in doing so, not an immediate need's-based perspective;

This is what I don't understand about what he is doing. As I just mentioned, teams go from bad to playoff contenders in 1 year almost every single year. I realized there was a lot of trash to clean up after the previous two regimens, but seriously a 5 year rebuild in the NFL is ridiculous.

Mckaskeys: Ryan, how will you turn this franchise around?

Pace: Well, to start, it will take several years to completely rid the roster of any and all talent the Bears currently have. Then I will meticulously build through the draft and draft my own players. I will only sign shit players in FA to 1 year deals. It will take me 4 years to find a QB. All in all, I can have this team a playoff contender in 5 years. We will have to endure several terrible terrible losing seasons though to implement this great plan. Also, it is completely hinged on actually drafting good players.

McKaskeys: You're hired!

Trying to make sense of Pace's vision

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