Cubs reportedly trying to trade Szczur

beckdawg · Mar 25, 2017

http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/03/25/report-cubs-are-trying-to-trade-matt-szczur/

Atlanta supposedly had interest. I'd image Szczur probably could fetch a 50 grade prospect. Given the cubs loaded AAA with projects it would make sense for them to target lower level pitching. Kyle Muller and Joey Wentz both being LHP would make sense as the cubs lack lefties.

czman · Mar 25, 2017

I know I am in the minority, but I think Szczur can be a 2 WAR player for 3-5 years on the Cubs. I would like to see him get a real chance on the Cubs to start in CF. I know he is not great defensively, but I don't think he is any worse than Fowler. I just have his feeling his is going to grind out consistent 2 WAR seasons for someone (obviously health can be a concern).

beckdawg · Mar 26, 2017

czman said:
I know I am in the minority, but I think Szczur can be a 2 WAR player for 3-5 years on the Cubs. I would like to see him get a real chance on the Cubs to start in CF. I know he is not great defensively, but I don't think he is any worse than Fowler. I just have his feeling his is going to grind out consistent 2 WAR seasons for someone (obviously health can be a concern).

I imagine they would have kept him if he had options. Basically its a positional problem. Jay, Almora and even Heyward all can play CF and all 3 OF spots. If they keep Szczur they don't have enough infielders. That plus the cubs have Jacob Hannemann, John Andreoli, Bijan Rademacher, and Mark Zagunis all close to the majors who largely fill the same role Szczur would.

I hope they don't just give Szczur away. Dewees is probably less of a sure thing and he brought Mills. If the cubs target an 18/19 year old I imagine they could get a pitcher with decent upside. Probably not TOR material but definitely Mid rotation upside.

CSF77 · Mar 26, 2017

How much control would a buyer get? That really dictates what his value is.

Dewees had full control and some development. Add to it his speed would play up in KC more than in CHC.

chibears55 · Mar 26, 2017

They'll end up trading him last minute for a PTBNL and or IFA money

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anotheridiot · Mar 26, 2017

we will lose scuzzy due to the want to have msstella and jay on this team. You know stella is a whiney girl and at least scuzzy knows he is going to get limited time.

8 million fucking dollars for jon jay when you need to play heyward somewhere. yet, no flak to theo or jed for replacing a 550k guy with 8 million.

dabears253313 · Mar 26, 2017

czman said:
I know I am in the minority, but I think Szczur can be a 2 WAR player for 3-5 years on the Cubs. I would like to see him get a real chance on the Cubs to start in CF. I know he is not great defensively, but I don't think he is any worse than Fowler. I just have his feeling his is going to grind out consistent 2 WAR seasons for someone (obviously health can be a concern).

I've always liked him. As much as a I like him I wanted him to be traded so he gets his chance somewhere else. I remember hearing during the off season that a few teams like the Rangers were interested in him so I'm surprised they didn't trade him. I think he would be out of luck in Atlanta with Kemp, Enciarte and Markakis in the outfield and Peterson as their backup/utility.

I think he deserved to be on the World Series roster and at least the roster for the Giants series after what La Stella pulled during the regular season. I know Almora finished strong to have a spot on the World Series roster but Szczur could have been picked over Coghlan and Soler.

He seemed to play well when he started. It's hard to be great when you're constantly on the bench. Other backups got decent playing time.

beckdawg · Mar 26, 2017

CSF77 said:
How much control would a buyer get? That really dictates what his value is.

Dewees had full control and some development. Add to it his speed would play up in KC more than in CHC.

Szczur isn't a FA until 2022. So that's 5 seasons of control. The only downside on him is he's out of options. But he's more or less proven to be at worst a bench OF on a MLB team and possibly a starter given the strong 2016 and his play this spring. He's not going to return a premium player but I think a 50 grade(basically mlb average talent) prospect is fair.

They'll end up trading him last minute for a PTBNL and or IFA money

Cubs can't use IFA money as they are still restricted until after this year. I think Szczur returns more than a PTBNL.

chibears55 · Mar 26, 2017

beckdawg said:
Cubs can't use IFA money as they are still restricted until after this year. I think Szczur returns more than a PTBNL.[him /QUOTE]

They can still sign IFA just can't sign them for more then 300,000..

Their total max now is 4.75 mil...

Why I think their not gonna get much for him is because teams are not going to offer much knowing he out of options and if the Cubs are truly looking to move him over adding him to roster, interested teams will wait till the end of ST and offer minimum or wait til he waived.

Cubs will take whatever they can over losing him for nothing if waived.

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beckdawg · Mar 26, 2017

chibears55 said:
They can still sign IFA just can't sign them for more then 300,000..

Their total max now is 4.75 mil...

Why I think their not gonna get much for him is because teams are not going to offer much knowing he out of options and if the Cubs are truly looking to move him over adding him to roster, interested teams will wait till the end of ST and offer minimum or wait til he waived.

Cubs will take whatever they can over losing him for nothing if waived.

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You aren't going to sign so many guys at $300k to warrant needing more IFA money. Whatever Szczur's value is they almost certainly will want a prospect. As for what he does return, it's tough to say but is it really any different than the Butler/Mills trades the cubs made only obviously from the other side? Maybe you mean something different but a PTBNL generally isn't even really a prospect of any value. They tend to be org filler. To put prospect grades in value, a 40 grade is probably a 4A player at best. 45 grades generally have a shot to be role players. 50 grades have a shot at starting be it as a mid to back of the rotation starer or a positional player.

My personal feeling is the cubs can get a low level 50 grade prospect for Szczur. Lower level guys are obviously riskier hence getting someone with slightly better tools. Maybe that's a slight reach but if the cubs were to trade for a bench bat for someone like Underwood or Paulino that wouldn't be out of question and they are both 45 grade guys atm. In other words, I'd be surprised if they didn't get a top 30 prospect from the other organization's system.

CSF77 · Mar 26, 2017

With 5 years he is worth Mills/Butler type talent. Basically talent but not established. Szczur is a proven talent but some what limited. On a lesser team with a opening he could turn into a stable every day player. On a contender he is a strong PH.

Bear Pride · Mar 26, 2017

Damn, the Cubs are screwed.... they have to dump good players to make room for future stars .... The Cubs Suck!

anotheridiot · Mar 27, 2017

Bear Pride said:
Damn, the Cubs are screwed.... they have to dump good players to make room for future stars .... The Cubs Suck!

are you considering Jon Jay and Miss Stella future stars? The team won because players accepted their roles. Miss stella did not accept its role last September did she? Matt Sczcur was our best pinch hitter the first half of last season when they were piling up wins. Solid Defense in any outfield spot and sat on the bench knowing his role. He is not being traded to make room for a future star, (although we hope they get some prospect that might become one). Happ is not on this team out of spring training. There is no way they are letting anyone start the year on this team until Bryant is locked up long term. So he is losing his roster spot to Jon Jay who most probably will "need to play".

czman · Mar 27, 2017

I think there is a likely scenario where a trade really hurts the Cubs. I f Almora and Heyward don't hit and Jay get injured the Cubs will really miss the bat.

I am not sold on Jay staying healthy. Almora has not proven he can handle major league pitching. Heyward we all hope bounces back, but we don't know. Schwarber, well I worry about his legs in the OF all season and if he gets tired or some nagging muscle injuries in the lower body his bat may suffer. Zobrist, well he is kind of old. I know the worst case is obviously Schwarber, Jay, and Zobrist either being injured or less effective late combined with Heyward and Almora not hitting.

I would rather the Cubs keep Szczur on the team and Make Almora crush it in AAA and force his way up. Or wait till Jay gets injured. I don't think Almora has done enough to force a trade of another player.

beckdawg · Mar 27, 2017

czman said:
Almora has not proven he can handle major league pitching.

I don't agree with this. In is 117 PAs last year he hit .277/.308/.455. Szczur in far and away his best pro season last year hit .259/.312/.400 in 200 PAs. And granted you should give a pinch of salt to spring training games but Almora is hitting .309/.316/.618 this spring. Obviously you'd like to see Almora become more selective and thus walk more but he's clearly proven to have elite contact skills. He's got a good chance at being a 80%+ contact guy.

And the elephant in the room is we're talking about his offensive potential. If we add in is defense he very well could play a Heyward level of defense in CF given full playing time based on is defensive metrics.

anotheridiot · Mar 27, 2017

Almora is the best defensive outfielder as far as getting moving at the crack of the back.

CSF77 · Mar 27, 2017

This is really an issue of limited flexibility. Szczur has no options so they are forced to keep a role player locked into a spot vs keeping the bench flexible. If they need a arm and Szczur is the 25th man then it forces them to leave him exposed if the pen is flamed out from over use.

That is the real issue here. If he had options he would not be dangled. If he was a starting level CF talent on a contender then Almora would be expendable. The reality is he is a great PH that excels VS LHP. What makes him diffrent from Baez who also crushes LHP is in their D and how Baez has options. But the big factor is in the D. Szczur's D is inferior. With Jay, Almora and Heyward they can cover for late inning D improvements to LF.

So at the end of the day Szczur is a PH. With no options left. There is nothing more to say about it. This is not about LaStella getting a nod etc. He is just another 25th man.

TL1961 · Mar 27, 2017

czman said:
I think there is a likely scenario where a trade really hurts the Cubs. I f Almora and Heyward don't hit and Jay get injured the Cubs will really miss the bat.

I am not sold on Jay staying healthy. Almora has not proven he can handle major league pitching. Heyward we all hope bounces back, but we don't know. Schwarber, well I worry about his legs in the OF all season and if he gets tired or some nagging muscle injuries in the lower body his bat may suffer. Zobrist, well he is kind of old. I know the worst case is obviously Schwarber, Jay, and Zobrist either being injured or less effective late combined with Heyward and Almora not hitting.

I would rather the Cubs keep Szczur on the team and Make Almora crush it in AAA and force his way up. Or wait till Jay gets injured. I don't think Almora has done enough to force a trade of another player.

Wow. What a post.

If two guys fail and a 3rd guy gets injured they will regret trading their depth.

And, tell me, if that did happen, is Szczur playing CF? NFW.

Bear Pride · Mar 27, 2017

CSF77 said:
This is really an issue of limited flexibility. Szczur has no options so they are forced to keep a role player locked into a spot vs keeping the bench flexible. If they need a arm and Szczur is the 25th man then it forces them to leave him exposed if the pen is flamed out from over use.

That is the real issue here. If he had options he would not be dangled. If he was a starting level CF talent on a contender then Almora would be expendable. The reality is he is a great PH that excels VS LHP. What makes him diffrent from Baez who also crushes LHP is in their D and how Baez has options. But the big factor is in the D. Szczur's D is inferior. With Jay, Almora and Heyward they can cover for late inning D improvements to LF.

So at the end of the day Szczur is a PH. With no options left. There is nothing more to say about it. This is not about LaStella getting a nod etc. He is just another 25th man.

Nice post. This pretty much says it all. it's about setting up the best roster, period. It's also is a comparison to existing veteran studs vs. rookie players that can explode ... (can the the Cubs get some credit for their rookies). If the Cubs cubs can trade a veteran bench player for a future star ... what's your problem?

anotheridiot · Mar 28, 2017

Bear Pride said:
Nice post. This pretty much says it all. it's about setting up the best roster, period. It's also is a comparison to existing veteran studs vs. rookie players that can explode ... (can the the Cubs get some credit for their rookies). If the Cubs cubs can trade a veteran bench player for a future star ... what's your problem?

Because you need role players or players that have accepted their role. Jay should accept whatever role he gets for 8 million. I really wonder who the cubs were bidding against on this one, but the fact remains, why. Did they not think that Ben would be in the outfield more so Javy can play second? What was the thinking? Cant bench Heyward for Almora, but you can bench him for Jay? Its the bigger question than Matt Sczcur, but you take a guy that knows his role to a Stella who wont accept that 25th man role and you gotta feel there are going to be problems.

Cubs reportedly trying to trade Szczur

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