#3 is 55% bust rate over the last decade..

Gustavus Adolphus

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My favorite teams
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Last 10 number 2 overall picks
2016: QB Carson Wentz
2015: QB Marcus Mariota
2014: OT Greg Robinson
2013: OT Luke Joeckel
2012: QB Robert Griffin III
2011: LB Von Miller
2010: DT Ndamukong Suh
2009: OT Jason Smith
2008: DE Chris Long
2007: WR Calvin Johnson

Last 10 number 4 overall picks
2016: RB Ezekiel Elliott
2015: WR Amari Cooper
2014: WR Sammy Watkins
2013: OT Lane Johnson
2012: OT Matt Kalil
2011: WR A.J. Green
2010: OT Trent Williams
2009: LB Aaron Curry
2008: RB Darren McFadden
2007: DE Gaines Adams

compared to the history of the number 3 pick these look amazing.

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All of a sudden my idea of letting the clock expire doesn't sound so bad, does it??
 

bearmick

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Just for fun I looked at the #3 overall for the last decade. There are some brutal picks in here. We have all been arguing in jest as armchair GMs for the last few months about who we want, in the end we will likely all be happy if we just get a very good player, regardless of position. Forgive my generic rating system:

Joey Bosa: Player
Dante Fowler: Bust - Injury
Blake Bortles: Bust
Dion Jordan: Bust
Trent Richardson: Bust
Marcell Dareus: Player
Gerald McCoy: Player
Tyson Jackson: Bust
Matt Ryan: Player
Joe Thomas: Player
Vince Young: Bust

The first thing this shows me is that there's a good chance of a player failing to live up to expectations at any position, not just QB.
 

Gustavus Adolphus

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The first thing this shows me is that there's a good chance of a player failing to live up to expectations at any position, not just QB.

Only QBs are busts. Everyone else is an underachiever. Best not to ever draft a QB.
 
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Exactly...this tells me the Bears should draft Leonard Fournette. Best Player Available. Dont reach on anyone. Hes going to be a absolute stud. Best prospect to come out since Adrian Peterson. If Jordan Howard gets injured, Bears have 0 run game. Howard & Fournette would give us the best Backfield in football and a identity. Grab Mahomes later or take a QB next year.
 

jonimus

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Pace has proven time and time again (literally, twice, two times) that he dominates round 2 and round 5. Trade all your picks for round 2 and 5 or Pace is an absolute idiot. Time and time again he has drafted studs in these rounds, why mess with perfect odds? If he has an ounce of a brain, and follows this perfect theory which ALWAYS works time and time again, then this year we will draft 8 Cody Whitehair, Eddie Goldman, Jordan Amos, and Adrian Amos's....

Get it done.
 

Bort

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Just for fun I looked at the #3 overall for the last decade. There are some brutal picks in here. We have all been arguing in jest as armchair GMs for the last few months about who we want, in the end we will likely all be happy if we just get a very good player, regardless of position. Forgive my generic rating system:

Joey Bosa: Player
Dante Fowler: Bust - Injury
Blake Bortles: Bust
Dion Jordan: Bust
Trent Richardson: Bust
Marcell Dareus: Player
Gerald McCoy: Player
Tyson Jackson: Bust
Matt Ryan: Player
Joe Thomas: Player
Vince Young: Bust

2 of those busts were due to Jacksonville's front office being completely Special person. Taking Fowler with Leonard Williams and Amari Cooper still on the board? Taking Bortles with Khalil Mack and Sammy Watkins still on the board? I thought those were idiotic picks at the time.
 

jonimus

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Whoops.. that should say Jordan Howard.. I did not mean to imply Amos and Howard tied the knot, but anything is possible.
 

DC

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F it, let's draft Watson, Adams and Fournette. Trade all of our picks this year and next.
 

Briggs is GOAT

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Bortles is not a bust at all. Not yet at least.
 

RoseMVP1

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So Dante Fowler has literally played one season and you already consider him a bust?
 

DrGonzo

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Last 10 number 2 overall picks
2016: QB Carson Wentz
2015: QB Marcus Mariota
2014: OT Greg Robinson
2013: OT Luke Joeckel
2012: QB Robert Griffin III
2011: LB Von Miller
2010: DT Ndamukong Suh
2009: OT Jason Smith
2008: DE Chris Long
2007: WR Calvin Johnson

Last 10 number 4 overall picks
2016: RB Ezekiel Elliott
2015: WR Amari Cooper
2014: WR Sammy Watkins
2013: OT Lane Johnson
2012: OT Matt Kalil
2011: WR A.J. Green
2010: OT Trent Williams
2009: LB Aaron Curry
2008: RB Darren McFadden
2007: DE Gaines Adams

compared to the history of the number 3 pick these look amazing.

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Seeing Adams on that list brought back disturbing memories.

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SuperDitkaMan

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Seeing Adams on that list brought back disturbing memories.

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Another disturbing thought.... our playoff drought would be even longer if Adams hadn't died ...not that I'm happy he did...It was tragic.

But without his death, we never go get Juilius Peppers a few weeks later, and surely don't make the playoffs in 2010 without Peppers.

So we'd be talking about a drought going back to the Super Bowl season.

Ugh.

We suck.
 

Milky

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Another disturbing thought.... our playoff drought would be even longer if Adams hadn't died ...not that I'm happy he did...It was tragic.

But without his death, we never go get Juilius Peppers a few weeks later, and surely don't make the playoffs in 2010 without Peppers.

So we'd be talking about a drought going back to the Super Bowl season.

Ugh.

We suck.

We certainly probably do go after Peppers. Who were our DEs at the time? An old Brown and Ogun? Izzy who they made gain and lose weight depending on which way the wind was blowing? A first round bust who JA waaaaay overpaid for?

Not exactly a whose who of pass rushers.


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Bearly

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So you're saying we're due.
 

Washington

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When you look at our overall bust rate in the 1st, the position picked and position in the round really does not matter.

2016 – Floyd
2015 – White (* - tbd)
2014 – Fuller (*)
2013 – Long
2012 – McClellin (*)
2011 – Carimi (*)
2008 – Williams (*)
2007 – Ohlsen
2006 – Benson (*)

* = bust (White fans, don't get your undies in a bundle)
 

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