#3 is 55% bust rate over the last decade..

mattb78 · Apr 6, 2017

Just for fun I looked at the #3 overall for the last decade. There are some brutal picks in here. We have all been arguing in jest as armchair GMs for the last few months about who we want, in the end we will likely all be happy if we just get a very good player, regardless of position. Forgive my generic rating system:

Joey Bosa: Player
Dante Fowler: Bust - Injury
Blake Bortles: Bust
Dion Jordan: Bust
Trent Richardson: Bust
Marcell Dareus: Player
Gerald McCoy: Player
Tyson Jackson: Bust
Matt Ryan: Player
Joe Thomas: Player
Vince Young: Bust

jonimus · Apr 6, 2017

Wow, that does seem like a crazy number for the #3 spot, but that's the reality of the draft. Let's be honest though, if our #3 pick isn't the GOAT, 99% of CCS is going to be in red alert meltdown status.

didshereallysaythat · Apr 6, 2017

Way too early to call Fowler a bust. Even too early for Bortles IMO.

mattb78 · Apr 6, 2017

I really liked Fowler so I agree. I just went with an up or down assessment for simplicity.

But Bortles is a complete bust. They were talking about him on Sirius and said he threw a 5 yard slant into the dirt. It would be a like a PGA tour pro hitting a dribbler off the tee..

nc0gnet0 · Apr 6, 2017

didshereallysaythat said:
Way too early to call Fowler a bust. Even too early for Bortles IMO.

Not too mention a decade is way to small a sample size.

JordanHoward24 · Apr 6, 2017

So basically we should take a defensive tackle if we want a stud

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Newblood · Apr 6, 2017

Outside of O-line and LBer, the other positions give you around a 60% chance of finding a consistent starter in the 1st round.

So maybe the Bears should just not pick in the 1st round?

Adipost · Apr 6, 2017

What's the bust rate at #2 for comparison?

Bearly · Apr 6, 2017

To take it a step further, here are the QBs taken at 3 over the past 20 years:
Joey Harrington
Akili Smith
Joey Harrington
Vince Young
Matt Ryan
Blake Bortles

Guess how many have/had career ratings over 80? 16%
Ryan was the only good selection and he's had the lowest grade in the top 10 selections in his draft year.

Point is that you don't just take them because you can as this board seems to be all about this spring. If a QB is that good, he rarely makes it to #3 and those selected there are more often than not, reaches with the appropriate success rate. I hope Pace likes a guy enough to be worthy of that position but if he does not, go elsewhere. Outside the top 2, you're just as likely to hit or miss anywhere in the top 36 as you are at #3.

Omeletpants · Apr 6, 2017

Cause what one player did 10 years ago impacts a different player now

Bearly · Apr 6, 2017

Adipost said:
What's the bust rate at #2 for comparison?

Here's the #2 QBs for the past 20 years.
Mariota
Wentz
RGIII
McNabb
Leaf
Too early to be certain but it looks like a 60% hit rate. So in the past 20 years, 5 drafts have seen a QB worthy of the #2 selection and 3 have been successes. That's 3 on 20. At #3 it's 1 in 20. Trust me, it doesn't get better when you start forcing it.

Like I said, I hope there's a QB in this draft that deserves the spot and Pace likes him for it but if not, move on.

Gustavus Adolphus · Apr 6, 2017

We should probably let our pick pass, and then draft in the #4 spot. Unless the bust rate is too high there as well.

mattb78 · Apr 6, 2017

Admittedly, I was in the crowd of "you can't draft a safety/CB at #3 overall".

Then I looked at the actual picks and realized many of these guys never even helped their team at all.

nc0gnet0 · Apr 6, 2017

We should trade down to seven, because everyone knows that is a lucky number, and by all means, avoid #13 at all costs........

Ares · Apr 6, 2017

Gustavus Adolphus said:
We should probably let our pick pass, and then draft in the #4 spot. Unless the bust rate is too high there as well.

You are sarcasm terrorist, sir.

nc0gnet0 · Apr 6, 2017

Don't we need to factor in what city the draft was held too?

Bearly · Apr 6, 2017

Gustavus Adolphus said:
We should probably let our pick pass, and then draft in the #4 spot. Unless the bust rate is too high there as well.

LOL, I think for general positions players it doesn't mean a thing if you stay true to your board but I do wonder if some GMs are trying too hard to hit home runs there when the home run hitters have already walked off. Basically being thrilled but the ceiling while loosing sight of the floor. I'm probably reading in too much.:thinking:

Doug Plank · Apr 6, 2017

mattb78 said:
Admittedly, I was in the crowd of "you can't draft a safety/CB at #3 overall".

Then I looked at the actual picks and realized many of these guys never even helped their team at all.

This is the rub on taking the "correct" value pick/need vs BPA. There is no true value and you are not actually filling a need if you draft someone who you think is a sub-par player.

JordanHoward24 · Apr 6, 2017

Last 10 number 2 overall picks
2016: QB Carson Wentz
2015: QB Marcus Mariota
2014: OT Greg Robinson
2013: OT Luke Joeckel
2012: QB Robert Griffin III
2011: LB Von Miller
2010: DT Ndamukong Suh
2009: OT Jason Smith
2008: DE Chris Long
2007: WR Calvin Johnson

Last 10 number 4 overall picks
2016: RB Ezekiel Elliott
2015: WR Amari Cooper
2014: WR Sammy Watkins
2013: OT Lane Johnson
2012: OT Matt Kalil
2011: WR A.J. Green
2010: OT Trent Williams
2009: LB Aaron Curry
2008: RB Darren McFadden
2007: DE Gaines Adams

compared to the history of the number 3 pick these look amazing.

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Mongo_76 · Apr 6, 2017

mattb78 said:
I really liked Fowler so I agree. I just went with an up or down assessment for simplicity.

But Bortles is a complete bust. They were talking about him on Sirius and said he threw a 5 yard slant into the dirt. It would be a like a PGA tour pro hitting a dribbler off the tee..

4500 yards and a 35 to 18 TD to int rate in his second year.

just under 4K yards last year as well.

Calling him a bust is a joke.

#3 is 55% bust rate over the last decade..

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