Predict Cubs Season - May 8th Edition

Prediction for End of Season

  • Nothing has changed my opinion - Win World Series

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Nothing has changed my opinion - Miss Playoffs

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Something has changed my opinion - Win World Series

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Something has changed my opinion - Miss playoffs now when thought in playoffs before

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    7

DanTown

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This is a simple poll that I'm curious how much of what you've seen will impact your view of the team.
 

Mr. Cub

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As of now, compared to last years team, we look like shit.

But last year aside, right now we look like maybe a playoff team that could be bounced early.

Luckily, there's still a lot of baseball left and things can change. If nothing changes, just making the playoffs would be a bit of a shock.
 

fatbeard

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Definitely a playoff team, but if the SP doesn't improve they're sorely missing the 1-2 or 1-2-3 punch necessary to go deep into the playoffs. That early five game series could be ugly. It very nearly was last year.
 

Diehardfan

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My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Chicago Blackhawks
It's really, really hard to repeat. Everyone you play treats those games like playoff games....you've got a target on your back from day one. Toss in the fact that things never go as smoothly, injuries, you're just a bit less hungry and the biggest is finding out a few of the players you count on had career years the year before and this year they have returned to planet Earth. It can be done, but it's awfully hard.
 

beckdawg

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The SP has been fairly unlucky with HR/FB and LOB%. Think the top 3 are fine. Lackey might be ok. His underlying numbers look fantastic(9.26 k/9 2.31 bb/9) but he's been murdered by HRs with a 21.6% HR/FB when his career rate is 10.0%. Obviously need a 5th but it's not like they didn't plan for that with Mills/Montgomery/Butler.
 

chibears55

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Looking like a team struggling to find themselves.

Young guys going through slumps with no idea how to get out of it..

Arrieta looking like a guy pressing in his FA year..

Hendricks looking like last year was a fluke..

Lackey looking like he should of retired with Ross...

Anderson was a bust..

Bullpen is overused now

Maddon being stubborn and not playing the hot bats or looking to mix up the lineup a bit..

Rizzo looks like he has too much going on outside baseball..

Right now to me it just looks like because they won last year, their just going to ride the wave with what they have and see if Schwarber Contreras Baez Russell can figure it out and adjust on their own..

Maybe because the division is weak their contending for a playoff spot come June/July, and if so then maybe Epstein looks to bring in pitching..

My prediction right now is their looking like a 85 win team who might back into the playoffs by virtue of being in a crappy division...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

CSF77

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Hendricks lost velocity early season. After it got back his numbers went back to his last year norm. His last game he threw 5 innings of shut out ball.

He needs to pick up his IP/game right now. Right now he is just under 5 2/3 per game. He needs to push into the 6th more now.

Lackey has some good games left but he is looking like a .500 W/L guy.

So I'll guess that Lester/Arrieta push 20 wins again. Kyle going with 15 due to his innings being down right now. Lackey 10 is a safe call. 5th rotation should net 12 wins. So 75 from the rotation. Maybe 15 wins out of the pen.

They could end up 95-85 wins so I'll split and call it 90.
 

beckdawg

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Hendricks lost velocity early season.

I'm not convinced he actually did. I know the numbers said he was down but the MLB switched from pitch f/x to statcast and wrigley in particular had shown a lot lower numbers than other stadiums. Apparently statcast uses radar which can be temperamental to get set right leading many to wonder if the cubs didn't quite have it right.
 

DanTown

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I'm not convinced he actually did. I know the numbers said he was down but the MLB switched from pitch f/x to statcast and wrigley in particular had shown a lot lower numbers than other stadiums. Apparently statcast uses radar which can be temperamental to get set right leading many to wonder if the cubs didn't quite have it right.

I mean everyone in the organization thought it was lower velocity but that was a purposeful thing as he went through the normal spring training dead arm the first two weeks since the Cubs were quite delayed in starting these guys.
 

beckdawg

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I mean everyone in the organization thought it was lower velocity but that was a purposeful thing as he went through the normal spring training dead arm the first two weeks since the Cubs were quite delayed in starting these guys.

They said the same comments about Arrieta too. The point is people were getting the numbers off statcast now as pitch f/x is gone and this was prior to there being enough evidence to wonder if it was inaccurate data.

See: http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/...ues-well-some-of-it-may-be-a-wrigley-problem/
 

DanTown

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beckdawg

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Well Hendricks first start was on the road and Arrieta's only had one home start in six starts so I'm not so sure this is clearly a Wrigley issue.

It's not just about being a wrigley issue though. It's more so that there's wide variance across stadiums and this shows up not just in cubs pitching but across the board. That's not to say dead arm didn't hurt Hendricks. His walk rate is surprisingly up. All i'm saying is I'm not entirely convinced he lost velocity. Think there's other minor mechanical issues at play here.
 

CSF77

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Hendricks has pitched better on the road upto now.
 

CSF77

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Game postponed. Double header tomorrow.

Bryant was going to play RF with Heyward on the DL with LaSrella at 3B. I'm guessing that they will use a LaStella Baez platoon for now.
 

Hammer

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Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks and Lackey so far look more like #2/3/4/5 in the rotation, than #1/2/3/4 they were supposed to be, and #5 is a hot garbage.

Bullpen also needs to get their stuff together.

And last, with Schwarber and Baez hitting struggles, it seems more and more likely they'll get traded for TOR pitchers by 2019 (or to be specific, by the time Jimenez and Happ are MLB ready).
 

czman

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I had 93 wins coming into the season and not winning the WS. My opinion at this point has not changed much. May is still too early for me to change my opinion much.

I think this season will really be about Schwarber in the leadoff spot. I honestly think he struggles in the spot as long as he is in it. The sooner Maddon moves him down the better. I think Maddon let Heyward at the top of the lineup far to long last season. I have a feeling he will leave Schwarber a the top of the lineup fr to long this season. I also think the pitcher 8 is a bad idea.

Lastly, I really question the Heyward in CF with Zobrist and Schwarber in the corners. The defense in the OF has taken a large step back and I am not sure Contreras handles the pitchers as well.

I kind of think Almora and Jay need to play more in CF, Heyward needs to play RF almost exclusively and Zobrist, Schwarber, Baez need to spit time at LF/2B.
 

CSF77

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I'm thinking that the lead off will be solved with Happ. What they will have to figure out is where he plays.
 

CSF77

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Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks and Lackey so far look more like #2/3/4/5 in the rotation, than #1/2/3/4 they were supposed to be, and #5 is a hot garbage.

Bullpen also needs to get their stuff together.

And last, with Schwarber and Baez hitting struggles, it seems more and more likely they'll get traded for TOR pitchers by 2019 (or to be specific, by the time Jimenez and Happ are MLB ready).

It has more to do with the rotation pushing into the 7th more now. Going 6 innings on avg that sets up the 7-9 with Urahara/Rondon Wade with Montgomery and Edwards mixed in. That keeps Grimm, Strop and Duensing less used.

Putting the 6th inning onto the pen stretches it out to using a fourth guy every day. Eventually that will burn up arms.

Now Butler's was set up to start on Anderson's start date. He has been avg 6 inning per and I'm thinking that is the key factor that they are looking at right now.

They have the 11th off so they may run a 4 man rotation. After the off day on the 15th they don't have a day off until June. So they would be forced to make a decision then. Who knows if Anderson will be back or not with his back acting up again.
 

TC in Mississippi

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I went into this season worried about the pitching and I still am. I also believed that the offense would lead this team to 93-95 wins and I still do. If you're asking me about playoffs though at this point in time this doesn't look like a team with a deep playoff run in it, mainly due to the pitching and partially the defense, but deciding how a team will do in the playoffs in May is a fool's game. A trade or twoo at the deadline and a hot summer offense could do a whole lot towards changing everything in August.
 
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