How a visit to Chapel Hill solidified the Bears' conviction in Mitch Trubisky

RedTRex

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What about Bin 54 being a "Lach" reference?

Only way to make it more meatball is if he had made the reservation for 9 at 9PM.
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iueyedoc

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What about Bin 54 being a "Lach" reference?
Ahhhh and since Urlacher hated Cutler, it was a subtle way of letting them know he wouldn't be the "pussy" type that BU thought Cutler was. Crafty!
 

bdietzler

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Keeping it Under Wraps with Trubisky

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-mitch-trubisky-bears-chicago-hope-spt-0521-20170519-story.html
Dan Wiederer
18-23 minutes

Admittedly, it was a small task. But in the pre-draft process, every minute detail counts. So on March 16, Bears general manager Ryan Pace found himself curious to see how Mitch Trubisky would handle a routine assignment.

A quintet of key Bears talent evaluators was headed to Chapel Hill, N.C., to visit Trubisky, the promising University of North Carolina quarterback. On the docket was a Friday morning workout to assess Trubisky's arm strength, athleticism and poise in person. But first, a traveling party that included Pace, coach John Fox, director of player personnel Josh Lucas, offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains and quarterbacks coach Dave Ragone requested dinner.

As Pace does with all such get-to-know-you dinners, he asked Trubisky to pick the restaurant and make the reservation. It's a minor request. But it often can be revealing of a player's reliability.

Pace also ordered Trubisky to keep the meeting top secret, so as not to tip off anyone — not any Tar Heels coaches or teammates, not any other NFL execs or agents, not even a campus meter maid — to the Bears' interest.

Trubisky took the directive and pieced things together.

Before Pace and his cohorts arrived on campus, the Bears GM had a text. Dinner at 7 p.m.

The venue: Bin 54, a top steakhouse in North Carolina's Triangle region. And to keep the gathering covert, Trubisky made the reservation for six under an alias: James McMahon.

"I thought that was cool," Pace says.

All of Trubisky's visitors from Chicago appreciated that touch. They took it as evidence of all they had been told about the 22-year-old quarterback never taking himself too seriously yet always focusing on the details.

"That told me he was prepared, that he did his homework," Loggains says. "You knew this moment wasn't too big for him. He still was having fun with it."

The Bears were too.

It's very much worth noting that their dinner-and-workout connection with Trubisky came during a critical four-day, three-stop quarterback mission that sandwiched the Chapel Hill stopover between trips to Clemson, S.C., and Lubbock, Texas, to size up Clemson's Deshaun Watson and Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes, respectively.

Talk about a pivotal road trip.

To be clear, the attraction to Trubisky as the potential savior to tug the franchise out of the quicksand of NFL mediocrity had started long before mid-March. For months, Pace had been convinced that Trubisky was the top quarterback in the draft. But for the longest time, he kept his evaluation to himself, not wanting to influence the assessments of his subordinates. Then, as the reports came trickling in — from area scout Chris Prescott, from national scout Ryan Kessenich, from college scouting director Mark Sadowski, from Lucas, from Loggains — the consensus energized Pace.

Still, over a 20-hour period during that field trip to Tobacco Road, the Bears put the finishing touches on their evaluation. For Pace, it was the culmination of what he admits had become a 10-month obsession with altering the Bears' frustrating quarterback history.

"The most important position in all of sports," Pace says. "And I don't think you're ever a great team until you address the position and you address it right." 
Good first impression

The off-campus dinner with Trubisky went exactly as the Bears hoped. Upon arrival, the McMahon party was ushered to Bin 54's secluded Wine Cellar for privacy, another Trubisky touch the Bears appreciated.

For more than two hours, with steaks all around and a couple of bottles of red wine open, the Bears probed to see if Trubisky's personality would mesh.

Pace wanted to gain a better sense for what made Trubisky tick. He listened to the young quarterback describe his upbringing in Mentor, Ohio, and his deep bond with his parents and three siblings. As the Bears GM made mental notes, that supportive, sturdy family dynamic resonated.

It had been a buoy for Trubisky throughout 2014 and 2015 when he was anchored in a backup role behind entrenched starter Marquise Williams. Through two seasons during which he saw the field only for emergency work or mop-up duty, Trubisky vacillated between frustrated and discouraged and ultra-motivated.

Through it all, his family kept him focused on his goals rather than his self-pity.

"Really," Trubisky says, "I would turn to myself, look at myself in the mirror and continue to believe in my dream."

Pace appreciated how Trubisky's natural confidence emanated. With NFL adversity inevitable, Pace also knew it was important that Trubisky had reliable outlets to steady him during the turbulence.

"And the way he was raised," Pace says, "he's not full of himself. He's more about his team and sharing the glory."
...

This is a very interesting article. Kudos to Trubisky for keeping the meeting secret and I find it interesting that the Bears decided to keep it a big secret as well. I guess they didn’t want anyone knowing what they were planning to do so another team didn’t come in and steal Trubisky right out from underneath them.

It’s also interesting how they went about doing what they did. I hope that all of this secrecy and “under the table” movement that the Bears did to get Trubisky did a lot of good. I do think he is the future for the Bears and I think that he will be a great quarterback. Let’s just hope all this effort was worth it.
 

remydat

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He didn't keep it secret. He told people about it on national radio.
 

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He didn't keep it secret. He told people about it on national radio.

The one time he said anything, whether intentionally or by accident, was about the workout. I don't remember anything at all about the meeting the day before the workout.
 

remydat

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Well yes he only referenced a workout but in talking about one he pretty much confirmed the other as don't think you would have a private workout without a meeting as well.
 

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Do you have a cool Sports Science cgi for that? Or nonsensical analogy like, "Mitch Trubisky's decision making is phenomenal. His eyes dart around left to right in 0.015 seconds,that is faster than a Hummingbird flying from honeysuckle flower to trumpet vines at an astounding 700ft per second. He also processes launch angle, velocity, and placement changes 55,000 times per second in real time. That is the same as a IBM Watson,not Deshaun, computer playing chess against Garry Kasporov."

Well do ya?

Don't we all?
 

JoJoBoxer

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Not quite a full second but definitely a lot more than 0.06 seconds. The below was from a few years ago. If you ignore the scramblers who inherently have a higher time to throw due to them making plays outside the pocket, the difference between a guy like Brady at 2.49 seconds and a guy like Cutler at 2.74 seconds is .25 seconds. It's a little under a second between Brady and the scramblers.

It's also interesting when you look at time to sack as it makes sense for why Wilson leads both because he is scrambler. But you look at a guy like Cutler and it took 4.01 seconds that year for him to get sacked which is an illustration that a lot of his sacks were due to holding the ball too long.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/signature-stat-snapshot-time-to-throw/
Thanks for the stats.

That Brady time is pretty amazing. I wonder what his release time was once you took out Brady's sacks which probably took longer than his 2.49 second average, thus increasing his average time.
 

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It’s also interesting how they went about doing what they did. I hope that all of this secrecy and “under the table” movement that the Bears did to get Trubisky did a lot of good. I do think he is the future for the Bears and I think that he will be a great quarterback. Let’s just hope all this effort was worth it.
It was already worth it.

Pace and staff decided that Trubs was the top QB in the draft and rated similar to other prospects in their books. They gave up chicken feed to guarantee that they got the player that they wanted above all other players in the draft (well ... maybe besides Garrett).

Whether Trubs succeeds or fails, it was a cheap price (and worth it) to attempt to get their QB of the future.
 

remydat

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Thanks for the stats.

That Brady time is pretty amazing. I wonder what his release time was once you took out Brady's sacks which probably took longer than his 2.49 second average, thus increasing his average time.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-time-to-throw/

Breaks it down into less than 2 seconds, 2 to 2.5 seconds, etc.

Looking at Brady, he's good at under 2 seconds and great between 2.1 to 2.5 seconds. However he is bottom half of the league at 2.5 seconds or more suggesting if he doesn't get rid of the ball quick he struggles most likely because someone isn't open and/or he's taking a sack.
 

JoJoBoxer

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https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-time-to-throw/

Breaks it down into less than 2 seconds, 2 to 2.5 seconds, etc.

Looking at Brady, he's good at under 2 seconds and great between 2.1 to 2.5 seconds. However he is bottom half of the league at 2.5 seconds or more suggesting if he doesn't get rid of the ball quick he struggles most likely because someone isn't open and/or he's taking a sack.

Not that it is surprising but when the pressure gets to Brady, his numbers drop quickly.

When the difference between time to throw and time to pressure got to over +.5 seconds, his numbers dropped quickly. However; that would be common for any QB.

If Trubs can prove to process information quickly and improves his ability to read defenses, he will have a great chance of success since he seems to be accurate, he throws with anticipation and he doesn't lock onto one receiver.
 

remydat

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Not that it is surprising but when the pressure gets to Brady, his numbers drop quickly.

When the difference between time to throw and time to pressure got to over +.5 seconds, his numbers dropped quickly. However; that would be common for any QB.

If Trubs can prove to process information quickly and improves his ability to read defenses, he will have a great chance of success since he seems to be accurate, he throws with anticipation and he doesn't lock onto one receiver.

It's interesting that a guy like Cutler is at the top of the pile when it's 3.1 to 3.5 seconds. He's actually better basically when the play breaks down a bit or he has a lot of time.
 

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https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-time-to-throw/

Breaks it down into less than 2 seconds, 2 to 2.5 seconds, etc.

Looking at Brady, he's good at under 2 seconds and great between 2.1 to 2.5 seconds. However he is bottom half of the league at 2.5 seconds or more suggesting if he doesn't get rid of the ball quick he struggles most likely because someone isn't open and/or he's taking a sack.

While I agree with those stats in this case, it's affected by O and not that telling on it's own. We all know Jay held the ball to long and didn't always take the easy earlier throw so you're not wrong about him but there's more to it and stats, which we all fall back to, can be deceiving. There's correlation in your #s but but I don't necessarily see it as causation though it can be. Anyone in a primarily 7 step O will hold the ball longer... and probably get sacked more.

I also don't think averages represent what a guy can do if he needs to and that includes getting a ball out quicker at times. I think Watson takes too much shit for his good arm and his release is great and velocity good when he can set. Less good when he can't and that's in significant contrast to Rodgers which he was previously compared to in this thread. Trubisky's doesn't fall off nearly as much.
 

remydat

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While I agree with those stats in this case, it's affected by O and not that telling on it's own. We all know Jay held the ball to long and didn't always take the easy earlier throw so you're not wrong about him but there's more to it and stats, which we all fall back to, can be deceiving. There's correlation in your #s but but I don't necessarily see it as causation though it can be. Anyone in a primarily 7 step O will hold the ball longer... and probably get sacked more.

I also don't think averages represent what a guy can do if he needs to and that includes getting a ball out quicker at times. I think Watson takes too much shit for his good arm and his release is great and velocity good when he can set. Less good when he can't and that's in significant contrast to Rodgers which he was previously compared to in this thread. Trubisky's doesn't fall off nearly as much.

Don't think anyone said it was telling on it's own so don't disagree with you on that. Although I don't think Jay played primarily in a 7 step O since Martz if you were referring to him. Jay simply holds the ball too long and if his OL gave him the time to do so then he was successful. Looking at the Breakdowns, the cumulative score of all QBs was -47.1 under 2 seconds, 65.2 between 2.1 to 2.5 seconds, 59.7 between 2.6 to 3.0 seconds, -20.9 between 3.1 and 3.5 seconds, and 43.4 when it's over 3.6 seconds.

So what that tells me is the guys that excel throwing under 2 seconds and the guys that excel in the 3.1 to 3.5 ranges are anomalies because in general, most QBs perform poorly in those ranges. So Jay Cutler excelled at a range that most QBs fail but his problem is that range is not really the sweet spot for when a QB generally should get a ball out on time. So he likely succeeded when the OL gave him time or when he bought time or made plays with his feet. By contrast a guy that excels in under 2 seconds and also in the 2.1 to 2.5 second range probably does so because they are getting the ball out generally on time. But of course, that's just my interpretation of the data. Someone may look at it and have a different interpretation.

And the only mention of Watson and Rodgers was in relation to their release time. Don't think anyone made any comparison beyond that. Just like there was a comparison between Rodgers and Trubisky with respect to their ability to make funny body throws. Both comparisons were of a single attribute not of the totality of their respective games.
 

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Aside from the data being from 2011, the article is terrible. The difference between the mathematical calculation of QB rating and whatever bogus "PFF grade" is so astoundingly large it makes any conclusion drawn from the data to be completely worthless...especially your comment that there is some sort of generalized "sweet spot" for when to throw the football. Huh?

If you look at the mathematically-driven QB rating stats for the time periods, you see a logical linear progression...

<2.0 seconds = 96.0 rating
2.1 -2.5 = 84.4
2.6 - 3.0 = 87.6
3.1 - 3.5 = 76.9
>3.6 = 69.7

So, logically, the longer it takes the QB to throw the ball, the less likely a positive outcome will occur. WRs are covered, QB taking too long to read defense, trying to throw downfield as opposed to 5-yard hitch, etc.

But, looking at the same data, lets substitute the nebulous "PFF Grade" for QB rating, and see if any logical pattern emerges...

<2.0 seconds = -47.1 PFF Grade
2.1 -2.5 = +65.2
2.6 - 3.0 = +59.7
3.1 - 3.5 = -20.9
>3.6 = +43.4

I don't think I could have imagined a more inconsistent set of data. All this tells me is that my thought that PFF's make-believe 'statistics' are truly garbage, and the people who try to cite them have no clue what the stat is actually measuring. If this is actually to be believed, then I guess the Bears should tell Trubisky to hold the ball for at least 2 seconds, try to make a pass, but if its not open continue to hold the ball, then try to make another pass after 3.6 seconds. I can imagine Dowell Loggains using stopwatches and sundials and so forth....


Good stuff:) The quick release qbs have receivers who can be trusted to run true routes. THroughout Cutler's term with the BEars they did not have an abundance of good route runners. Even the couple of pro bowl receivers that he had were not good route runners. That was the reason, I believe that Cutler held onto the ball. That he waited for the receiver to establish a position where Cutler had high confidence that he could catch the ball. I am not excusing Cutler, but I do believe that if he had had better route runners, his hold time would be much less.
 

remydat

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Aside from the data being from 2011, the article is terrible. The difference between the mathematical calculation of QB rating and whatever bogus "PFF grade" is so astoundingly large it makes any conclusion drawn from the data to be completely worthless...especially your comment that there is some sort of generalized "sweet spot" for when to throw the football. Huh?

If you look at the mathematically-driven QB rating stats for the time periods, you see a logical linear progression...

<2.0 seconds = 96.0 rating
2.1 -2.5 = 84.4
2.6 - 3.0 = 87.6
3.1 - 3.5 = 76.9
>3.6 = 69.7

So, logically, the longer it takes the QB to throw the ball, the less likely a positive outcome will occur. WRs are covered, QB taking too long to read defense, trying to throw downfield as opposed to 5-yard hitch, etc.

But, looking at the same data, lets substitute the nebulous "PFF Grade" for QB rating, and see if any logical pattern emerges...

<2.0 seconds = -47.1 PFF Grade
2.1 -2.5 = +65.2
2.6 - 3.0 = +59.7
3.1 - 3.5 = -20.9
>3.6 = +43.4

I don't think I could have imagined a more inconsistent set of data. All this tells me is that my thought that PFF's make-believe 'statistics' are truly garbage, and the people who try to cite them have no clue what the stat is actually measuring. If this is actually to be believed, then I guess the Bears should tell Trubisky to hold the ball for at least 2 seconds, try to make a pass, but if its not open continue to hold the ball, then try to make another pass after 3.6 seconds. I can imagine Dowell Loggains using stopwatches and sundials and so forth....

The main reason there is a divide is because QB rating is using completion percentage but the PFF grade takes into account whether the QB actually threw a good pass. You can tell this because PFF shows a completion percentage and an accuracy percentage and you have guys like Alex Smith in the > 3.6 seconds bucket whose QB rating is only 59.8 due to a 39.1% completion percentage but his actual accuracy percentage was 65.6%. The accuracy percentage takes into account drops and passes thrown away which PFF is also showing.

So the linear progression by QB rating doesn't really prove anything except that QB rating is simplistic. You are making the assumption that just because it conforms with what you think is right that it must make it a better statistic. However, not sure how it is better to dock a QB when a WR dropped a pass or when they correctly threw the ball away.

What the less than 2.0 seconds PFF grade tells me is that there are a group of QBs that clearly excel in making quick and smart decisions but that there is also a decent chunk of QBs that suck balls doing this hence why the overall grade is negative. Thus the QBs that are good at making these quick and smart decisions are outliers from the rest of the group.

The same holds true of the greater than 3.6 seconds. There seems to be a group of QBs that suck when things break down or when there is no one open and there are QBs that end up making the right decisions more times than not even if in this context the right decision is to throw the ball away rather than throw a pick or force a pass than should have been picked.
 

remydat

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You clearly didn't listen to anything I said or took another look at the data. Alex Smith threw away zero passes in under 2 seconds so not sure why you would bring that up. He had a 90.5 QB rating but a negative PFF grade. By contrast, when he had 3.6 seconds or more to throw, he had to throw the ball away 9 times and he had positive PFF rating but a 59.8 rating. Looking at all the stats, his QB rating is misleading in my opinion because I don't think he performed all that well in throwing the ball under 2 seconds and his stats when he had 3.6 seconds are also including the times he scrambled as it showed he scrambled 39 times. That's yards and production not being accounted for in QB rating.

So no one is arguing that the PFF rating is the end all be it but it's Special person to pretend that it isn't capturing more than QB rating. QB rating is not accounting for WR drops, thrown away passes, or QB scrambles. It's a nice metric for someone that wants a simplistic view of a QB's performance but it in no way tries to or captures the totality of a QB's play particularly in scenarios where they are holding the ball longer and thus are more likely to scramble.

So I can explain the PFF grade because PFF gave me all the additional stats they keep track of that go into that grade. I can review those additional stats and they help put into context why the QB rating isn't telling the whole story. I provided a link that including all those additional states. You just decided to ignore all the other information except QB rating and PFF grade.
 

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