MLB draft is a week from today(june 12th)

beckdawg

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So i know a lot of people don't follow this as closely as I do and even I wouldn't exactly say I know these guys that well. But I do read a fair bit. From what I've read the strongest name that's been attached to the cubs so far is Nick Allen who's a high school SS. The book on him is he's TINY(5'8 158) but he is a true SS who should stick and he can hit(55 grade from mlb.com). I've seen Jose Altuve/Dustin Pedroia comps thrown on him. If he was a bigger guy he'd probably be much higher rated but teams tend to shy away on smaller build guys as they don't have as much potential. There's been a ton of pitching names thrown around and given you never know who will fall it's kind of hard to predict anyone else the cubs might go after but mlb.com and BA have both pushed Allen toward the cubs in mocks so I'd imagine if he's there we might see him.

The cubs positioning will be interesting because what tends to happen is you will see high school guys who have strong commitments slip because of signability concerns. Some of the talk I've read is the cubs might do an underslot deal at 27 and use the money they save to go after a premium talent who falls because of signability concerns. For instance, the latest BA mock draft has the cubs going Allen then Sam Carlson who's a high schooler out of Minnesota. MLB.com has him as the #15 guy and BA has him #14. I've also seen the cubs linked to guys like Griffin Canning(who may not fall), Tanner Houck, Clarke Schmidt, Nate Pearson, Quentin Holmes(OF not a pitcher). Schmidt would be an injury risk/upside play. Think I read some where if he didn't fall victim to TJS he might have been a top 5 pick as one of the best starters in college. Canning is also one of the better college pitchers. His stuff is really 3 good pitches but nothing "great" but he apparently throws strikes so there's that. Houck is out of Mizzou with a good fastball and size but meh secondariest atm. Pearson is a juco guy with good size and a good fastball but meh secondaries. Holmes is a true CF with blazing 80 grade speed.

Regardless, should be pretty interesting. I do think we'll probably see the cubs underslot someone and use that to grab better talent if not in the first round maybe similar to the Cease draft though obviously not quite on the same level given they wont have quite as much money to play with. Some of the talk I've read seems to suggest they may go nuts with arms again but I'm not so sure. I sort of think they may go quality arms and use a lot of their 2nd-10th round picks on bats because the past 2 years they've sent so many picks on pitchers. You tend to want to have a place for those guys to play and grow and if you go that crazy with picks you're forcing the issue a bit to either promote or cut guys. In 2016 they had one position player picked in the first 16 rounds. In 2015, you had Happ at 9, Dewees who's now gone at 47, DJ Wilson at 113, and Vimael Machin 293 as the only position players in the first 10 rounds. They also took 3 pitchers out of the next 5 from rounds 11-15
 

JP Hochbaum

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I do think they will go heavy on pitching again, rounds 1-10. Theo says he prefers to do that with the draft because of their injury risks being so high.
 

TC in Mississippi

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A couple of guys I know in the game really like Nate Pearson and disagree that his secondary pitches are "meh". He's got the makings of a good changeup but he hasn't thrown it much and his breaking ball is really his out pitch. What's even better is that he pitches well at 93-95 only breaking out that 100 mph stuff when he needs too. I'm a guy who loves velocity and I think the Cubs need a guy that throws like that. At 6'6" 250 if he falls to 27 I think the Cubs would be foolish not to take him and I don't think they're foolish and they are said to like him. The issue is that after his last month or so of JUCO ball he's more likely to go around 12-15.

Allen scares me. Guys that small are so rarely great players that I just don't take that kind of risk on HS player. He seems to be so linked with the Cubs though that if they don't like a pitcher better I think they take him.
 

beckdawg

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A couple of guys I know in the game really like Nate Pearson and disagree that his secondary pitches are "meh".

MLB.com has those pitches rated at Slider: 50 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 45

I've not actually seen Pearson pitch so i can't personally comment but those grades are pretty meh. You generally want guys with at least two 60 grade pitches if you're looking at TOR types. And that's not to say he'll never get better secondary pitches just that right now they are a work in progress according to mlb.com. Regardless, I'm not trying to shit on the guy or anything cuz as I said I haven't even seen him pitch but I was assuming most haven't either so just passing on what I've read.
 

CSF77

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Sam Carlson Is another target they may go after at 30.
 

TC in Mississippi

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MLB.com has those pitches rated at Slider: 50 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 45

I've not actually seen Pearson pitch so i can't personally comment but those grades are pretty meh. You generally want guys with at least two 60 grade pitches if you're looking at TOR types. And that's not to say he'll never get better secondary pitches just that right now they are a work in progress according to mlb.com. Regardless, I'm not trying to shit on the guy or anything cuz as I said I haven't even seen him pitch but I was assuming most haven't either so just passing on what I've read.

I've watched some YouTube videos is all but I know guys that have seen him. I guess my think is 6'6" 250 lbs and lights up the radar gun at 101 mph. I'd take a chance on a guy like that any day of the week. You can teach pitches you can't teach size and velocity. As I said though in the last few weeks his stock has risen well above 27 so I doubt he's even an option.
 

beckdawg

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I've watched some YouTube videos is all but I know guys that have seen him. I guess my think is 6'6" 250 lbs and lights up the radar gun at 101 mph. I'd take a chance on a guy like that any day of the week. You can teach pitches you can't teach size and velocity. As I said though in the last few weeks his stock has risen well above 27 so I doubt he's even an option.

Oh i have no problem with them taking him as you said because of the velocity and size. Just giving an idea of what he is today.
 

chibears55

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Any chance they can nab pitcher who could have a chance to be in rotation in 2018..

I hope they draft a couple of hitters who can spray the ball around over just getting guys who mash like Schwarber and have to hit in shifts..


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beckdawg

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Any chance they can nab pitcher who could have a chance to be in rotation in 2018..

I hope they draft a couple of hitters who can spray the ball around over just getting guys who mash like Schwarber and have to hit in shifts..


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That's exceedingly doubtful and even if you could you aren't going to get one at 27/30 who is both a fast mover and who has upside because if that player exists he's drafted top 10 probably top 5.
 

CSF77

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Oh i have no problem with them taking him as you said because of the velocity and size. Just giving an idea of what he is today.

Depends if he has life on the fastball. If it is strait and he can't control it it is a wasted 1st round.

Also if he has no secondary pitches it will make him another BP arm. Again another blown 1st round pick.

Guys that have only 1 plus pitch are later round guys.
 

JP Hochbaum

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Any chance they can nab pitcher who could have a chance to be in rotation in 2018..

I hope they draft a couple of hitters who can spray the ball around over just getting guys who mash like Schwarber and have to hit in shifts..


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Very hard to find that.
1) We are far too down in the order for someone like that to be available, unless there are contract issues.
2) last person to really do that and do it well was Chris Sale, and he's a once in a generation talent.

So i would say nope!
 

TC in Mississippi

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Very hard to find that.
1) We are far too down in the order for someone like that to be available, unless there are contract issues.
2) last person to really do that and do it well was Chris Sale, and he's a once in a generation talent.

So i would say nope!

Mike Leake and Carlos Rodon are other examples. Both pitched for their big league clubs the following April after being drafted. It's not something you really look to do though and there was criticism of both moves.
 

DanTown

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Far more likely the Cubs find a 2017 or 2018 bullpen arm than a starter with their two picks. I can't imagine a starter being bad enough in college to fall to 27/30 but then good enough to make the majors. I'd also imagine he has too much wear on his arm from the College season to even pitch that much this season so you'd have basically 40 - 50 minor league innings to say he's a starter?

2019 at the absolute earliest if you hit the home runs of home runs with picks for a starter.
 

CSF77

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Far more likely the Cubs find a 2017 or 2018 bullpen arm than a starter with their two picks. I can't imagine a starter being bad enough in college to fall to 27/30 but then good enough to make the majors. I'd also imagine he has too much wear on his arm from the College season to even pitch that much this season so you'd have basically 40 - 50 minor league innings to say he's a starter?

2019 at the absolute earliest if you hit the home runs of home runs with picks for a starter.

Clifton was a 12 round pick.

3. Mark Buehrle, LHP, White Sox, 1998

38th round, 1,139 overall

4. Kenny Rogers, LHP, Rangers, 1982

39th round, 816 overall

bWAR: 51.4

5. John Smoltz, RHP, Tigers, 1985

22nd round, 574 overall

bWAR: 69.5

7. Andy Pettitte, LHP, Yankees, 1990

22nd round, 594 overall

bWAR: 60.8

DROP: 1,338


So saying a 32 pick is a BP arm is silly. What the first round is just the hot list. Many players develop slower
 

anotheridiot

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Well, CJ Edwards was a 48th round pick, so anything is possible. Yeah, I know, if he went to college and played a few years he might have gotten picked sooner.

Who are we trying to replace as a fielder. Nobody. What room is there in the lineup for a spray the ball around hitter, none. It should be all pitching.
 

CSF77

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Seems they are looking at the whole player again and personality is a part of the equation. They don't want head cases
 

DanTown

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Clifton was a 12 round pick.

3. Mark Buehrle, LHP, White Sox, 1998

38th round, 1,139 overall

4. Kenny Rogers, LHP, Rangers, 1982

39th round, 816 overall

bWAR: 51.4

5. John Smoltz, RHP, Tigers, 1985

22nd round, 574 overall

bWAR: 69.5

7. Andy Pettitte, LHP, Yankees, 1990

22nd round, 594 overall

bWAR: 60.8

DROP: 1,338


So saying a 32 pick is a BP arm is silly. What the first round is just the hot list. Many players develop slower

I'm talking about a starter being in the majors quickly as a late first. If the Cubs draft a starter, the best of best cases is he's a 2019 starter. Normal projection would be 2020 or 2021.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Well, CJ Edwards was a 48th round pick, so anything is possible. Yeah, I know, if he went to college and played a few years he might have gotten picked sooner.

Who are we trying to replace as a fielder. Nobody. What room is there in the lineup for a spray the ball around hitter, none. It should be all pitching.

I would be foolish to limit a 1st round pick or picks that way. If when your pick comes there is a position player that is a better player than the best pitcher than that's who you take. It's OK to target pitching, it's not Ok to take a lesser player because of some sort of dogmatic approach.
 

CSF77

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I'm talking about a starter being in the majors quickly as a late first. If the Cubs draft a starter, the best of best cases is he's a 2019 starter. Normal projection would be 2020 or 2021.

Nick Allen, SS, Francis Parker School (San Diego, CA)

The Cubs have been linked to Nick Allen for a long time despite the fact the diminutive shortstop doesn’t fit the typical first-round profile. Allen stands in at just 5’8″ and 155 pounds, but man can he go get the ball at short. He’s one of the best fielding high school shortstops I’ve ever seen. Allen is a solid hitter and a fast runner, but he doesn’t have much pop. That said, his defense alone is worth drafting him this high. He’s that good out there.

2nd pick should a pitcher. This is one:

Pick: Matt Sauer, RHP, Righetti High School (Santa Maria, CA)

Matt Sauer is a big righty at 6’4″ and 195 pounds with incredible upside. He already hits 97 mph regularly and sits between 91 and 95, while unleashing a wicked slider. His changeup is a below-average offering right now and he struggles with his command at times, but if he can harness both Sauer could be a star.
 

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