Trade deadline banter

CSF77

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After the draft this should heat up.

Looking some stuff over. Joe seems to have faith in Lackey. Said John will challenge guys and some times he gets burnt for it.

Opponents are hitting .270 against Lackey with an .833 OPS that ranks 72nd out of 85 qualified big-league pitchers. Last week’s no-decision in a 3-2 win over the St. Louis Cardinals is the only other time this year that Lackey has lasted more than six innings.

That part just sucks in general and he is old news.


MLBTR has:

Speaking of the Cubs‘ search for pitching, Eddie Butler and Mike Montgomery are trying to retain their jobs as the team’s fifth starter and potential spot starter, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. Butler, a former top Rockies prospect, has a 3.75 ERA over 24 innings this season while Montgomery has a 2.21 ERA over 36 2/3 relief frames. Neither pitcher has terribly impressive peripheral stats, however, so it still seems likely that Chicago will try to acquire a higher-level arm and keep Butler, Montgomery and the injured Brett Anderson as rotation depth.




I get where this is coming from. The main blip on both Butler and Montgomery has been in walks. Butler had 2 outings that juiced that total but that control issue is looming every outing. Montgomery for a middle relief with 20 BB in 36 IP is troubling. It hasn't bit him in the ass yet but you really have to hesitate before green lighting him starting.
 

beckdawg

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Here's who I'd be buying.... Masahiro Tanaka. People are going to look at that and say "you're crazy." And that is fine. He's got a 6.55/5.62 ERA/FIP and 3.5 years at ~$78 mil left on his deal assuming he doesn't opt out after this season but given an almost 7 ERA why would he? Before I get to the "why" let me say basically the type of trade I'd offer the yankees. Their corner infield is largely their biggest offensive problem. Other than Tanaka their starters have been good. So, my offer would be basically Candelario and someone like Aaron Brooks, Seth Frankoff or Alec Mills. In return the cubs would get Tanaka and let's say $20 mil. That would effectively making him cost $16.5 mil over the rest of his deal.

So now let's get to the "why?" To start with we know the cubs had interest in him when he came over but ultimately were out bid. Some of the shine has obviously come off but presumably if you believed in the stuff then you likely do now unless something major changed. On top of that, he's 28 so still young and while he hasn't been a dominant ace, he has shown the ability to pitch decent last year. and several years before. I think he's largely been unlucky based on his numbers. His K rate is in line with his career numbers and his batted ball stats look basically the same as last year. He's walking more people but still well below league average. Last year he was one of the best at that. And HR's are killing him. His BABIP is pretty high at .323 and his strand rate is pretty low at 67.8% with his career rate being roughly 75%. In essence you're talking about a guy who's command is a bit spotty this year who's but hurt badly by people on base not being stranded like you would normally expect and who's given up a really high rate of HRs.

Admittedly it would be a risk but I don't think he's broken beyond fixing. Yankees pitchers give up a lot of HRs for some reason. Guess it's the short porch. In Tanaka's case his HR/FB this year is absurdly high at home at 28.6%. Think 11-12% is roughly the MLB average. It's been high on the road as well but considerably lower at 18.4%. The cubs largely have been good at fixing guys who have HR problems. Eddie Butler for instance had a 20.3% HR/FB rate last year and a 17.1% rate the year prior. This year he's at 4.8%. Like wise Arrieta struggled big with that as an O. And in terms of money $16 mil/year doesn't buy you much. That's what a 38 year old John Lackey is making.

Overall, I don't know if the Yankees are ready to pull the cord on Tanaka but if they are he strikes me as the prototypical buy low guy. He'd have to come pretty cheap given his struggles. Given they are in 1st place maybe they don't make that trade but I could see the argument for them going after someone like Greinke, Darvish, Cueto or Shark in which case they'd want to unload some money most likely. And someone like Candelario could likely help them offensively today.
 

CSF77

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They are losing both Tanaka and Pineda.

If you want control, Maeda looks to be the odd man out when Wood comes back. I'm not sure on his trade weight or what the Dodgers would be looking for but he is a guy that will be a option. Or if he is even worth looking into with his bad year. Dodgers may just want out of the deal.
 

beckdawg

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They are losing both Tanaka and Pineda.

If you want control, Maeda looks to be the odd man out when Wood comes back. I'm not sure on his trade weight or what the Dodgers would be looking for but he is a guy that will be a option. Or if he is even worth looking into with his bad year. Dodgers may just want out of the deal.

We're talking about the Yankees. If they want Pineda back they have the money and frankly I don't see reasoning why they wouldn't want him back.
 

CSF77

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I agree with that. Pineda and Sabathia are both having strong seasons and both are leaving at the end of the year. Pineda is a guy they should retain.

If Pitt puts Cole on the market there is no team in baseball that can match the Yanks in prospects. So that in turn could mean they push Tanaka to the market.

My issue with Tanaka is his opt out. That makes me want to shy away. He could sit on it or hit the market. So he is a guy that could be out there anyways with out selling talent.

That is why I would rather trade for a guy with no hitches. Maeda's deal is strange as it has incentives tied to it with games started. That most likely is why he is getting bumped into the pen. His base deal was 25 mil total but it could go upto 100 mil with starts.

So in view of that there might be decent from his camp with this development. Add to it they still have Ureha on the wings to keep him in long relief. That situation might become ugly.
 

chibears55

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Wouldn't surprise me if they do nothing but add a reliever and or get a minor league arm for next year ..

I don't see them bumping anyone out of this rotation..
Arrieta and Lackey are going to finish out the year..
Looks like they like what they have in Butler and Montgomery as far as getting them innings this year to be ready for next year.

If there to be a major trade made for a starter it'll be done in off season..


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anotheridiot

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I can see them try ing one more shot to extend Arrieta before the deadline, get his mind back on baseball and not his payday. If he says no and they acquire a starter, I can see them dealing him away. Just dont know what it would be for. Need 2 or 3 for next year.
 

CSF77

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I can see them try ing one more shot to extend Arrieta before the deadline, get his mind back on baseball and not his payday. If he says no and they acquire a starter, I can see them dealing him away. Just dont know what it would be for. Need 2 or 3 for next year.

His mind is not on a pay day. His issue was adjustments due to a loss of velocity. Initially he went more crossfire to add deception in lieu of accuracy. No he has increased the use of his curve which is directly related to his recent improvement. Now hitters don't have to sit on his fastball/cutter and have to deal with a hook over the plate.
 

CSF77

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Wouldn't surprise me if they do nothing but add a reliever and or get a minor league arm for next year ..

I don't see them bumping anyone out of this rotation..
Arrieta and Lackey are going to finish out the year..
Looks like they like what they have in Butler and Montgomery as far as getting them innings this year to be ready for next year.

If there to be a major trade made for a starter it'll be done in off season..


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I tend to agree. I would target a guy like Doolittle to be a mid inning stopper with Edwards. We have seen how that strategy played out for Cleveland. especially with this rotation becoming questionable after the 3rd time through. Having Edwards and a left handed counter point to get the game into the late innings pays off more than not.

As far as Butler or Montgomery. I would let Montgomery start myself and push Butler back to AAA after the ASG. He really hasn't proven that he is more than a 5 inning pitcher when he has his control. That is a issue that he needs to reconcile before becoming a major league starter. He has good stuff. But he needs to come up with more diversity as the hitters have seen him 2x. Maybe adding a 3rd pitch the 2nd time to give them another look so they don't know which way he will work them. Say 4 seem/slider the 1st time. Add a change the 2nd time then mix it up and pitch backwards the 3rd.
 

beckdawg

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My issue with Tanaka is his opt out. That makes me want to shy away. He could sit on it or hit the market. So he is a guy that could be out there anyways with out selling talent.

That's certainly an issue and I meant to bring that up in my initial post more than I did. As mentioned I'm not sure he opts out. However, I'm wondering how that works for pick compensation. Typically mid season trades void comp pick compensation but in his case I don't think that's true because he's technically under contract for 3.5 more years. Obviously that's not as good as it used to be because they changed the compensation value but it's still something.

I'd largely be fine with Maeda as well but think the dodgers are probably a harder team to make a trade work.
 

beckdawg

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Wouldn't surprise me if they do nothing but add a reliever and or get a minor league arm for next year ..

I don't see them bumping anyone out of this rotation..
Arrieta and Lackey are going to finish out the year..
Looks like they like what they have in Butler and Montgomery as far as getting them innings this year to be ready for next year.

If there to be a major trade made for a starter it'll be done in off season..


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Assuming they can afford to they are going to go to a 6 man rotation. They did it last year so I see no reason they wouldn't this year. And even if they need wins you'd probably rather a more proven pitcher as your #5 than Butler/Montgomery/Anderson.
 

CSF77

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Assuming they can afford to they are going to go to a 6 man rotation. They did it last year so I see no reason they wouldn't this year. And even if they need wins you'd probably rather a more proven pitcher as your #5 than Butler/Montgomery/Anderson.

I'm thinking that they would do it until the break to see which of Montgomery or Butler they want to hold onto as a starter for the 2nd half.
 

TC in Mississippi

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I think it's even odds that they make a significant trade at the deadline. If they don't go the big trade route in a deep pitching market they will get a pitcher and I would rule out big name rentals like Darvish or Cueto, but Alex Cobb wouldn't shock me. If they do go big I think Sonny Gray is a guy they might make a deal for. He has a 3.37 FIP in the AL and he has his highest K/9 and his lowest BB/9 since 2013. They'd be buying 2.5 years of control and it's always been known that they like him. The coming FA period is a good one for MOR/BOR starters so it would make sense that they might want to get the TOR out of the way if a deal is there.
 

CSF77

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I think it's even odds that they make a significant trade at the deadline. If they don't go the big trade route in a deep pitching market they will get a pitcher and I would rule out big name rentals like Darvish or Cueto, but Alex Cobb wouldn't shock me. If they do go big I think Sonny Gray is a guy they might make a deal for. He has a 3.37 FIP in the AL and he has his highest K/9 and his lowest BB/9 since 2013. They'd be buying 2.5 years of control and it's always been known that they like him. The coming FA period is a good one for MOR/BOR starters so it would make sense that they might want to get the TOR out of the way if a deal is there.

Cobb is the easiest target and should be the floor.

Grey is honestly a strong 3/4 on this rotation. If they were planning to target Darvish and use Montgomery for the rest of the year. Trade for Grey the rotation would be play off caliber.
 

DJMoore_is_fat

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The next six weeks will be telling as far as what we do at the dead line. Obviously it would be nice to string together some good stretches and take control of the division. We have a serious issue with Lackey -- it's pretty obvious he's done at this point. When push comes to shove, Lester should be reliable. And I assume Hendricks will return from his injury and be good.

But the back end of our staff is troublesome. Plus we could use another bullpen arm. And obviously the hitting has been a concern, too. We have a lot of holes and to truly fill them all - we'll need a lot of reinforcements. I'm not sure how wise it would be to deplete our entire farm system to try and make a run with this particular team.

Hopefully we get it together over this next month and show some signs of being a legitimate contender. It would make our decision to go for it much easier.
 

TC in Mississippi

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The next six weeks will be telling as far as what we do at the dead line. Obviously it would be nice to string together some good stretches and take control of the division. We have a serious issue with Lackey -- it's pretty obvious he's done at this point. When push comes to shove, Lester should be reliable. And I assume Hendricks will return from his injury and be good.

But the back end of our staff is troublesome. Plus we could use another bullpen arm. And obviously the hitting has been a concern, too. We have a lot of holes and to truly fill them all - we'll need a lot of reinforcements. I'm not sure how wise it would be to deplete our entire farm system to try and make a run with this particular team.

Hopefully we get it together over this next month and show some signs of being a legitimate contender. It would make our decision to go for it much easier.

They aren't going to trade for a hitter, they have too many of those as it is, you just have to hope they come around. I think they're going to focus on a controllable arm and to me Sonny Gray probably makes the most sense at this point. I expect them to pursue him and others. They're going to win the division, I have very little doubt of that, so they need a solid 4 starters. Arrieta has been much better lately but I'd like to see him as the 4th starter to feel at all comfortable.
 

CSF77

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How much would Grey and Doolittle cost together? Doolittle has 2 option years and Grey also has 2 years left.

Are we talking a haul centered on De La Rosa?

If they made a deal like that it forces Lackey off of the roster IMO. Doolittle takes Montgomery's role when puts him in as the 4. Grey sits at Lackey's spot with Kyle as the 5.

Now I really don't know what it would take to pull off. I would expect Catarani and Candy first. Then Alozay as the easy pick pitcher. But I'm thinking it will take a impact player also. DeLaRosa or Cease would be expected as the top talent. I don't see a mega like this going down with out one of these 2 involved.
 

beckdawg

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People need to slow their roll on Lackey. They aren't going to cut him. This is a team already bumping up against the luxury tax so you don't just throw away a guy who's costing you $8 mil or so for the rest of the year. They almost certainly will ride his contract out. This is especially true when you have no idea on Hendricks' status.

As for Doolittle I don't really see the point. Uehara is effectively a LHP with his splits. Dunesing has been pretty good in Wood's low leverage role. And I'm not really sure Montgomery is better in the rotation anyways. Having someone you can confidently send out for 2-3 innings is a huge deal. It allows you to save your other bullpen guys. Plus, if you're assuming they trade for Gray, you're going to have Arrieta, Lester, Gray, Lackey + one of Hendricks and Butler. Obviously that's Hendricks if healthy but as mentioned we don't know. Point here being, you don't need to use Montgomery in the rotation. If you wanna rest the starters when rosters expand and use Montgomery as a 6th starter than sure go for it.

I'd be greatly opposed to trading more resources on another reliever because they still have yet to solve their starter situation going into 2018. Ok sure if you get Gray that helps but Butler/Montgomery aren't sure things. And you still have to replace Lackey. I'd prefer they save their resources because Gray is already going to cost a ton and you may need some prospects for other stuff such as that other starter.
 

anotheridiot

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The cubs want what every team wants, a young, controlled, top of the rotation starter. Everyone thinks Candelario is a throw in piece, Jiminez probably the top name not on the roster now. I dont know how long the cubs will hold out on bringing the DH to the NL but with this roster Schwarber needs to catch.

Lackey needs some undisclosed injury to give him three weeks off, too bad they cant figure out what is wrong with Kyles hand. Hopefully they keep stretching Montgomery and Anderson is no longer an option.

The yankees look to make the playoffs again, so I dont think they will be moving any pitchers unless CC has a definite return date. They will not risk that resign chapman after fleecing the cubs, but Torres might find a new home again.
 

TC in Mississippi

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The cubs want what every team wants, a young, controlled, top of the rotation starter. Everyone thinks Candelario is a throw in piece, Jiminez probably the top name not on the roster now. I dont know how long the cubs will hold out on bringing the DH to the NL but with this roster Schwarber needs to catch.

Lackey needs some undisclosed injury to give him three weeks off, too bad they cant figure out what is wrong with Kyles hand. Hopefully they keep stretching Montgomery and Anderson is no longer an option.

The yankees look to make the playoffs again, so I dont think they will be moving any pitchers unless CC has a definite return date. They will not risk that resign chapman after fleecing the cubs, but Torres might find a new home again.

The Yankees aren't trading Torres, he'll be starting at SS or 3B for them by August. His numbers in AAA are decent if if the K rate is high. They will trade for a pitcher though and they plenty of other pieces to do that.
 

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