Quintana a Cub

fatbeard · Jul 13, 2017

brett05 said:
Welcome to baseball. the more you learn the more you will like it

I wish your philosophical responses were as good as your baseball ones.

Raskolnikov · Jul 13, 2017

brett05 said:
The two others are thow away players. The Cubs definitely got the best part of the deal. To not even have to part away with at least three top 30 org guys is a great deal for the Cubs. It is what it is and I have to hope we can get Cease to gain control enough to at least be a bullpen arm.

Yeah...I would have liked Candelario also. With Eloy and Cease.

Raskolnikov · Jul 13, 2017

brett05 said:
I'd say that there are about 15-20 true #1s out there.

Q is an inconsistent 1. Like Arrieta has been the last 20 months.

But Q is still potentially ascending, while Arrieta is trying to hang on until contract. I hope Arrieta gets at least 150,000,000 and the Lincecum bullshit doesn't happen to him.

Fucking baseball needs to figure out how to compensate these pitchers more fairly, one day you are Barry Zito and worth the world, the next you make a payday for life, but are no baron.

Arrieta is looking like the worst case of undercompensated since Freaky Franchise.

beckdawg · Jul 13, 2017

brett05 said:
The two others are thow away players. The Cubs definitely got the best part of the deal. To not even have to part away with at least three top 30 org guys is a great deal for the Cubs. It is what it is and I have to hope we can get Cease to gain control enough to at least be a bullpen arm.

Cease is pretty fine as a bullpen arm right now so I wouldn't worry to much about that. The worry is obviously whether or not he is a starter. I've personally always preferred De La Cruz to Cease because while cease has explosive stuff you're battling 2 issues with him. 1) he's on the smaller side. He's not tiny by any means and he generates good speed due to arm speed rather than over throwing so that helps a bit with injury risk but he's not the 6-5 or 6-6 220-230 lb monster that some starters are.

2) as you mentioned he throws a lot of pitches. While he certainly is a strike out artist the problem he has is that he doesn't go deep into games. That's one of the most underrated aspects in pitching in my eyes because middle relief bullpens can really kill teams. Teams that avoid that tend to do well. The 2016 cubs are a good example of this where they essentially were having 4 starters go 6 innings every night.

He's honestly a lot like Kopech in that regard. Kopech is a bit bigger but both could be home runs if they stay in a rotation and both could end up as bullpen pieces with ridiculous gas.

chibears55 · Jul 13, 2017

brett05 said:
I'd say that there are about 15-20 true #1s out there.

I think there less then that depending on your standards for a true 1..

I just look at starters nowadays like this..

Their either a TOR type, borderline, or BOR type..

Lester a TOR
Quintana a TOR
Hendricks is borderline (see how he does when he returns)
Arrieta has fallen to borderline
Lackey is BOR

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playthrough2001 · Jul 13, 2017

Here's the bottom line... Q is going to give you chance almost every time he takes the mound. It was almost laughable the lack of run support he's received for the last several years. Plus, he's an awesome teammate. Total class act... I hope it works out well for both sides. Also, Theo grabbed him just as the Brewers starting sniffing around. So it's a great add for the Cubs while blocking the Brew Crew.

beckdawg · Jul 13, 2017

playthrough2001 said:
Also, Theo grabbed him just as the Brewers starting sniffing around. So it's a great add for the Cubs while blocking the Brew Crew.

This is a pretty good point I was thinking about in other regards. You look at what theo did last year with Chapman and he essentially jumped the market thus stopping himself from being in a bidding war. I was thinking more about the Astros and yankees than the brewers but the same logic still applies. Now one of those teams may end up having to give a similar package for arguably a lessor starter like Gray.

chibears55 · Jul 13, 2017

beckdawg said:
This is a pretty good point I was thinking about in other regards. You look at what theo did last year with Chapman and he essentially jumped the market thus stopping himself from being in a bidding war. I was thinking more about the Astros and yankees than the brewers but the same logic still applies. Now one of those teams may end up having to give a similar package for arguably a lessor starter like Gray.

Exactly what that did for other teams looking to add SP..
Made the bar high

Also I heard that the Sox texted Epstein on Sunday during the disastrous first inning not realizing cubs started early to see if he wanted to work out a deal and asked for Jimenez and Cease right off the bat.

Epstein got back to him later that day and they agreed on a deal..

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Adipost · Jul 13, 2017

Ari Bear · Jul 13, 2017

beardownboilerup85 said:
Sad to see Eloy go, but the pitching will help

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/cubs-acquire-jose-quintana.html

I'm sad that we traded Cease and Jimenez . As for the trade over all don't know how I feel about it just yet.

TC in Mississippi · Jul 13, 2017

Quintana is a younger Jon Lester both with 3.52 career FIP. Quintana has a better fWAR over the last three years and they got him for prospects that won't help in the current window. Plus they're prospects, not proven talent. I'm perplexed why anyone wouldn't like this deal.

GSH_34 · Jul 13, 2017

The best front office in baseball decided Quintana was the guy they wanted. Anyone who disagrees should probably listen to the guys who strike gold with whatever they do.

Quintana is really good. He's a #2. The stats prove he's really good. I believe he pressed this year trying to be the Ace and his pitching suffered.

Recently he found his groove and started pitching like the old Q.

Any Cub fan who shits on this deal is fucking Special person.

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Ari Bear · Jul 13, 2017

A 4W 8L 4.49 era doesnt excite me. Hope he turns it around

GSH_34 · Jul 13, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
Quintana is a younger Jon Lester both with 3.52 career FIP. Quintana has a better fWAR over the last three years and they got him for prospects that won't help in the current window. Plus they're prospects, not proven talent. I'm perplexed why anyone wouldn't like this deal.

Because people see his win/loss record, his stats this year and believe he's not good.

Which is false. All the advanced stats say he's really good.

I'd trust the guys who just won the Cubs fucking World Series.

And yes, if hurts to lose Eloy. He's a stud. But he wasn't gonna be ready for at least a year, probably more.

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beckdawg · Jul 13, 2017

Ari Bear said:
A 4W 8L 4.49 era doesnt excite me. Hope he turns it around

Win loss record is irrelevant on a bad white sox team. ERA is perhaps concerning but his last 7 starts he's posted a 2.70 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.52 xFIP and a 27.1 K%. His ERA really comes down to 4 terrible starts. 2 in april(4th and 15th giving 6 and 5 ER) and 2 in may(24th and 30th giving up 8 and 7 ER). I know you can't entirely cherry pick data like that but if you remove those 4 starts he's given up 26 runs over 86.1 innings for a 2.71 ERA.

edit: brett or some of our other sox fans probably can provide more info than I can as to what was going on there but the first two in april seem like just normal early season adjustments. The 4th was his first start and the 15th was his third. They weren't that terrible really. The 2 starts in may were back to back @arizona which is never fun to pitch at and at home vs a pretty good boston team. Probably a case of him not having a good feel for his pitches for about a week. Two starts before and after were 8 innings of 1 hit ball vs seattle and 5.1 innings of 4 hit ball vs Tampa. Gave up 1 ER in each.

Ari Bear · Jul 13, 2017

beckdawg said:
Win loss record is irrelevant on a bad white sox team. ERA is perhaps concerning but his last 7 starts he's posted a 2.70 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.52 xFIP and a 27.1 K%. His ERA really comes down to 4 terrible starts. 2 in april(4th and 15th giving 6 and 5 ER) and 2 in may(24th and 30th giving up 8 and 7 ER). I know you can't entirely cherry pick data like that but if you remove those 4 starts he's given up 26 runs over 86.1 innings for a 2.71 ERA.

Yeah but those 4 bad starts are really bad. Configered yearly thats 8 really bad starts! Giving up Jimenez and a pitcher that hits 100mph and looks like a stud future ace is what concerns me most.

RacerX · Jul 13, 2017

Raskolnikov said:
Q is an inconsistent 1. Like Arrieta has been the last 20 months.

But Q is still potentially ascending, while Arrieta is trying to hang on until contract. I hope Arrieta gets at least 150,000,000 and the Lincecum bullshit doesn't happen to him.

Fucking baseball needs to figure out how to compensate these pitchers more fairly, one day you are Barry Zito and worth the world, the next you make a payday for life, but are no baron.

Arrieta is looking like the worst case of undercompensated since Freaky Franchise.

The only major sport without a Cap and you're feeling sorry for the players?

CSF77 · Jul 13, 2017

1: Q's number mirror Lester. So think of it as they traded for a 2nd Lester.

2: Eloy is in A+. He would be on the team in 2020. The sox might rush him if their core is ready next year. The Cubs have no pressing issues like that.

3: The Cubs OF is a log jam right now, No place to plug him in until Heywards' option pops. Even then he most likely sits on it.

4: Cease is more likely going to be a Closer. He is ranked #8 in the Sox system right now. out of that he is the #5 SP prospect. We over valued him. His fastball hits 96-97. His curve is a hammer and a plus offering. But he lacks control and runs up heavy pitch counts. He is not a sure thing to end up a rotation piece.

beckdawg · Jul 13, 2017

Ari Bear said:
Yeah but those 4 bad starts are really bad. Configered yearly thats 8 really bad starts, eek! Giving up Jimenez and a pitcher that hits 100mph and looks like a stud future ace is what concerns me most.

Think you're looking at this differently than me. My point is I'd rather have a guy who's stellar for 14 of 18 starts and has a bad day than someone who's blah for 18 starts consistently. No pitcher is ever lights out every game.

And I said this before but Eloy and Cease are risker than cubs fans think. I'd argue Eloy less so than Cease but as I mentioned he's a guy who should be playing LF only. And he might be average-ish there defensively. I brought this up in the trade banter but I think he's basically going to be Nelson Cruz minus the SB's. Cruz could always hit but from age 24-32 only put up 2 seasons over 3 wins.

Cease is a giant gamble in my eyes. First of all if you look at most of the top 10-15 pitchers they generally tend to be 6-3 or bigger. Sale is 6-6. Scherzer is 6-3. Kershaw is 6-4. Kluber is 6-4. Archer is 6-3. Greinke is 6-2. Fulmer is 6-3. Severino is 6-2. Strasburg is 6-4. Jimmy Nelson is 6-6. McCullers is 6-1. Carrasco is 6-4. Samardzija is 6-5. Darvish is 6-5. And Carlos Martinez is 6-0. That's your top 15 this season in fWAR as of today. Cease is 6-2 and not a particularly well built 6-2 at 190 pounds. And while we're talking about a guy with a 12.3 k/9 in the minors we're also talking about a guy with a 5.0 bb/9 in the minors and a guy who's still at 4.5 bb/9 at A+.

Given all that and his past TJS, I think there's probably a 50/50 shot he ends up as a closer. He's got great stats certainly but I honestly don't think A ball hitters can handle his two offerings that are already good(fastball curve). However AA and AAA pitchers are good enough where you can't just get by on 2 pitches. We'll see what happens but he's going to have to improve his change up.

I don't want this to come off like I'm throwing shade on two guys who are no longer cubs. All I'm saying is neither was a "sure thing." Eloy's bat is pretty close to one but there are tons of LF only bats every year in the draft. It's doubtful many have quite the same power he does but my point is you can find something that's say 80-90% of what he is. And the cubs already have Schwarber who's worst season in the minors was better than anything Eloy has done. Cease could refine his command and become a flame throwing starter we wished the cubs still had or he could end up a closer we largely wont care about. And obviously that's assuming he doesn't get hurt again.

Ari Bear · Jul 13, 2017

beckdawg said:
Think you're looking at this differently than me. My point is I'd rather have a guy who's stellar for 14 of 18 starts and has a bad day than someone who's blah for 18 starts consistently. No pitcher is ever lights out every game.

And I said this before but Eloy and Cease are risker than cubs fans think. I'd argue Eloy less so than Cease but as I mentioned he's a guy who should be playing LF only. And he might be average-ish there defensively. I brought this up in the trade banter but I think he's basically going to be Nelson Cruz minus the SB's. Cruz could always hit but from age 24-32 only put up 2 seasons over 3 wins.

Cease is a giant gamble in my eyes. First of all if you look at most of the top 10-15 pitchers they generally tend to be 6-3 or bigger. Sale is 6-6. Scherzer is 6-3. Kershaw is 6-4. Kluber is 6-4. Archer is 6-3. Greinke is 6-2. Fulmer is 6-3. Severino is 6-2. Strasburg is 6-4. Jimmy Nelson is 6-6. McCullers is 6-1. Carrasco is 6-4. Samardzija is 6-5. Darvish is 6-5. And Carlos Martinez is 6-0. That's your top 15 this season in fWAR as of today. Cease is 6-2 and not a particularly well built 6-2 at 190 pounds. And while we're talking about a guy with a 12.3 k/9 in the minors we're also talking about a guy with a 5.0 bb/9 in the minors and a guy who's still at 4.5 bb/9 at A+.

Given all that and his past TJS, I think there's probably a 50/50 shot he ends up as a closer. He's got great stats certainly but I honestly don't think A ball hitters can handle his two offerings that are already good(fastball curve). However AA and AAA pitchers are good enough where you can't just get by on 2 pitches. We'll see what happens but he's going to have to improve his change up.

I don't want this to come off like I'm throwing shade on two guys who are no longer cubs. All I'm saying is neither was a "sure thing." Eloy's bat is pretty close to one but there are tons of LF only bats every year in the draft. It's doubtful many have quite the same power he does but my point is you can find something that's say 80-90% of what he is. And the cubs already have Schwarber who's worst season in the minors was better than anything Eloy has done. Cease could refine his command and become a flame throwing starter we wished the cubs still had or he could end up a closer we largely wont care about. And obviously that's assuming he doesn't get hurt again.

Well alls we can do is hope it works in our favor. Best thing is I think Quintana is signed through 2020. Which we will have him for a few years.

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