Cubs playing like champions now

cubsmann · Sep 2, 2017

The Cubs are finally living up to the very high standard to which we hold them. Hitting they are the best team in MLB in the last 30 days. Their team .OPS is > .800!! 6 guys in the lineup with 20+ HR's. Pitching has been solid as hell in the past month today non-withstanding. Im think Cubs - Dodgers in NLCS and its gonna be epic.

wklink · Sep 2, 2017

They are playing good but I still worry about our starting pitching. Lester is still not 100%, Arrieta and Hendricks are pitching better but I don't know if we can keep up with LA, especially with Kershaw coming back. We have a good chance of getting by the Nationals but the Dodgers are going to be tough.

brett05 · Sep 5, 2017

Hard to say how great the team is based on the caliber of competition they have been playing

Globetrotter · Sep 5, 2017

They'll be lucky to make the playoffs.

chibears55 · Sep 5, 2017

Cubs are their own worse enemy this year with their inconsistency...

On paper they should be running away with this division but they find themselves most likely heading into a weekend battle for first with the Brewers...

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TC in Mississippi · Sep 5, 2017

They've gone 7-3 in their last ten games, .645 winning percentage in the second half. Milwaukee is close because they're good, not because we're bad. Contreras will be back sometime next week. My only concern right now is Arrieta. They still win this division by five games. After a horrible start this team has been everything I've wanted them to be. I don't understand the constant pessimism.

brett05 · Sep 5, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
They've gone 7-3 in their last ten games, .645 winning percentage in the second half. Milwaukee is close because they're good, not because we're bad. Contreras will be back sometime next week. My only concern right now is Arrieta. They still win this division by five games. After a horrible start this team has been everything I've wanted them to be. I don't understand the constant pessimism.

So you wanted them to be playing poorly against the better teams?

TC in Mississippi · Sep 5, 2017

brett05 said:
So you wanted them to be playing poorly against the better teams?

I'm not quite sure what you're getting at but I don't buy much into strength of schedule arguments until September, and even then with a caveat. When you're playing well I think you can beat anyone and when you're playing poorly I think you can lose to anyone. In the pennant race who you're playing does matter but sometimes in strange ways. Sometimes teams that have been bad all year long play well and sometimes (I'm looking at you LA) great teams are running out of gas. So while it matters who you play in the race, records mean less than trends to me.

chibears55 · Sep 5, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
They've gone 7-3 in their last ten games, .645 winning percentage in the second half. Milwaukee is close because they're good, not because we're bad. Contreras will be back sometime next week. My only concern right now is Arrieta. They still win this division by five games. After a horrible start this team has been everything I've wanted them to be. I don't understand the constant pessimism.

Because as I said they should be a lot better then where they are with a comfortable lead, and after the Pirates series they'll have 14 of 19 against the Cardinals and Brewers..

So the inconsistency in the offense bullpen and now rotation, could end up costing them against the 2 teams who want to bury them...

Starting this weekend were gonna see just how good these guys are playing against the 2 teams their battling for 1st place and a playoff spot.

Brewers and Cardinals both have WC shots if not the division

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TC in Mississippi · Sep 5, 2017

chibears55 said:
Because as I said they should be a lot better then where they are with a comfortable lead, and after the Pirates series they'll have 14 of 19 against the Cardinals and Brewers..

So the inconsistency in the offense bullpen and now rotation, could end up costing them against the 2 teams who want to bury them...

Starting this weekend were gonna see just how good these guys are playing against the 2 teams their battling for 1st place and a playoff spot.

Brewers and Cardinals both have WC shots if not the division

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The Cardinals have no WC shot. Watch them play. I've watched 1-2 games a week all season and there is something fundamentally wrong there, which is odd because they are underperforming their Pythagorean expectation by 4-5 games. The Brewers to me are a near lock for the WC. Could Milwaukee win the division? Yes, but they're not going to. Talent usually wins out.

Now all that said if they sweep the Cubs this weekend it might be a different story but I have no reasonable expectation that they're going to do so. The Cubs are playing like a 89 win team for the season and are riding a positive trend. I expect them to win 90-91 games winning 15 or 16 of their last 25 games. which is about what their second half numbers tell you their going to do. The Brewers are on a 85 win pace with an inconsistent second half trend. I expect them to win 86-87 wins and beat out the Rockies for the WC, I would be very surprised if they overcame the Cubs for the Division.

One of my favorite baseball quotes is "baseball is a math problem where humans get in the way". You can't predict humans so you go with the math until those pesky players mess it up.

DanTown · Sep 5, 2017

It's too early to proclaim the division gone considering the Brewers trail the Cubs by 3.5 games and the Cubs made up 5.5 games against the Brewers in like 15-17 days or whatever it was in July. The key to the division is going to be the seven games the Cubs have left against Milwaukee; I can envision almost no logical way if the Cubs win 4 or more of those games that Milwaukee has a chance to win the division. I cannot also envision the Brewers winning unless they get super hot but that's always possible. I knew Milwaukee would always "come back" when their schedule righted itself the past six weeks (basically end of July to now) but the schedule has once again tilted.

Milwaukee left
2 @ Cincy
3 @ Chicago
3 v Pittsburgh
3 @ Miami
3 @ Pittsburgh
4 v Chicago
3 v Cincy
3 @ St. Louis

Compare that to Chicago
3 @ Pittsburgh
3 v Milwaukee
3 v New York Mets
3 v St. Louis
2 @ Tampa Bay
4 @ Milwaukee
4 @ St. Louis
3 v Cincinnati

Cubs magic number is 22. Assume Milwaukee high waters and goes 12-5 in non-Cub games, the magic number is now 17. Cubs go 9-9 in non-Brewers games, Magic number is down to 8. That means Cubs have to go 4-3 or better to win division.

I still love the chances of the Cubs but I'll wait until next Monday to really cast what Milwaukee's true chances are. If something drastic happens (Cubs go 1-5 this week with a sweep by the Brewers) then all of the sudden you're vastly different.

TC in Mississippi · Sep 5, 2017

DanTown said:
It's too early to proclaim the division gone considering the Brewers trail the Cubs by 3.5 games and the Cubs made up 5.5 games against the Brewers in like 15-17 days or whatever it was in July. The key to the division is going to be the seven games the Cubs have left against Milwaukee; I can envision almost no logical way if the Cubs win 4 or more of those games that Milwaukee has a chance to win the division. I cannot also envision the Brewers winning unless they get super hot but that's always possible. I knew Milwaukee would always "come back" when their schedule righted itself the past six weeks (basically end of July to now) but the schedule has once again tilted.

Milwaukee left
2 @ Cincy
3 @ Chicago
3 v Pittsburgh
3 @ Miami
3 @ Pittsburgh
4 v Chicago
3 v Cincy
3 @ St. Louis

Compare that to Chicago
3 @ Pittsburgh
3 v Milwaukee
3 v New York Mets
3 v St. Louis
2 @ Tampa Bay
4 @ Milwaukee
4 @ St. Louis
3 v Cincinnati

Cubs magic number is 22. Assume Milwaukee high waters and goes 12-5 in non-Cub games, the magic number is now 17. Cubs go 9-9 in non-Brewers games, Magic number is down to 8. That means Cubs have to go 4-3 or better to win division.

I still love the chances of the Cubs but I'll wait until next Monday to really cast what Milwaukee's true chances are. If something drastic happens (Cubs go 1-5 this week with a sweep by the Brewers) then all of the sudden you're vastly different.

Very well reasoned. Great post.

brett05 · Sep 5, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
I'm not quite sure what you're getting at but I don't buy much into strength of schedule arguments until September, and even then with a caveat. When you're playing well I think you can beat anyone and when you're playing poorly I think you can lose to anyone. In the pennant race who you're playing does matter but sometimes in strange ways. Sometimes teams that have been bad all year long play well and sometimes (I'm looking at you LA) great teams are running out of gas. So while it matters who you play in the race, records mean less than trends to me.

I agree you can get hot, but if you haven't shown the ability to do that in the regular season against the good teams you aren't doing that in the playoffs either. Not positive on that, but I lean heavily that it's true.

chibears55 · Sep 5, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
The Cardinals have no WC shot. Watch them play. I've watched 1-2 games a week all season and there is something fundamentally wrong there, which is odd because they are underperforming their Pythagorean expectation by 4-5 games. The Brewers to me are a near lock for the WC. Could Milwaukee win the division? Yes, but they're not going to. Talent usually wins out.

Now all that said if they sweep the Cubs this weekend it might be a different story but I have no reasonable expectation that they're going to do so. The Cubs are playing like a 89 win team for the season and are riding a positive trend. I expect them to win 90-91 games winning 15 or 16 of their last 25 games. which is about what their second half numbers tell you their going to do. The Brewers are on a 85 win pace with an inconsistent second half trend. I expect them to win 86-87 wins and beat out the Rockies for the WC, I would be very surprised if they overcame the Cubs for the Division.

One of my favorite baseball quotes is "baseball is a math problem where humans get in the way". You can't predict humans so you go with the math until those pesky players mess it up.

Cards are a game behind the Brewers and 3 behind the Rockies..
Their still breathing..

These last 3 weeks will decide things..

Cubs play mostly Brewers Cardinals
Brewers play mostly Cubs Pirates
Cards play mostly Cubs Reds

Brewers Cards play last 3 games of season
Cards got the easier schedule between them and Brewers outside head to head..
Basically whichever team gets hot ..

Cubs should take care of business but they need to avoid their inconsistencies and fall flat on their faces against the Brewers and Cardinals whom will be going all out against them because they still have playoffs hopes

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Parade_Rain · Sep 5, 2017

So, cubsmann...are you still going to claim the Cubs are playing like champions?

Diehardfan · Sep 5, 2017

He's got a good gig. Hops in, says something stupid....then disappears for a month. But, you know, I think I'd rather have that than the endless dumbass rantings of guys whose entire life is wrapped around a baseball team. I have no idea how many but there are guys here who watch every single game and post here. Every. Single. Game. I mean I'm semi-retired and don't have time to see even half the games.

TC in Mississippi · Sep 6, 2017

Diehardfan said:
He's got a good gig. Hops in, says something stupid....then disappears for a month. But, you know, I think I'd rather have that than the endless dumbass rantings of guys whose entire life is wrapped around a baseball team. I have no idea how many but there are guys here who watch every single game and post here. Every. Single. Game. I mean I'm semi-retired and don't have time to see even half the games.

I watch or follow part of most games, but as far entire games I'm lucky to see 2-3 a week. It's a hobby to me and it's fun. I love having a cup of coffee in the morning and going over stats, I enjoy watching the games and yeah I like having spirited discussions about it. I travel a ton so traveling with a Fire Stick and my MLBTV subscription helps pass the time on the road. For me though baseball is fun win or lose. When the Cubs were bad I followed a few other teams and followed the minor leagues more closely than I do now. I just plain love the game and since giving up on the NFL and the Bears (for various reasons after being a rabid fan for over four decades) it's my one sports vice left (I watch some hockey but don't follow it like I do baseball). It brings me joy. I think it brings others great angst and that mystifies me. Sorry for the mini-rant.

Diehardfan · Sep 6, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
I watch or follow part of most games, but as far entire games I'm lucky to see 2-3 a week. It's a hobby to me and it's fun. I love having a cup of coffee in the morning and going over stats, I enjoy watching the games and yeah I like having spirited discussions about it. I travel a ton so traveling with a Fire Stick and my MLBTV subscription helps pass the time on the road. For me though baseball is fun win or lose. When the Cubs were bad I followed a few other teams and followed the minor leagues more closely than I do now. I just plain love the game and since giving up on the NFL and the Bears (for various reasons after being a rabid fan for over four decades) it's my one sports vice left (I watch some hockey but don't follow it like I do baseball). It brings me joy. I think it brings others great angst and that mystifies me. Sorry for the mini-rant.

You're not one of the guys I was thinking of.

Personally, I never bailed on the Hawks or Bears but I did for awhile with the Cubs and MLB as a whole. The Sosa/McGwire thing and later Bonds bogus HR numbers just made me want to upchuck. A horrible commissioner turning a blind eye to his drug induced league was just too much for me to handle. Not that the NFL or NHL was squeaky clean...they at least didn't condone it which ignoring it was basically doing in MLB. Left a bad taste and had me questioning whether MLB heading down the WWE trail.

Globetrotter · Sep 6, 2017

I've got more on my plate than most and find time to watch nearly every game. Mostly because I paid for the package. The majority of games start as I'm getting home on the east coast.

ursamajor · Sep 26, 2017

wklink said:
They are playing good but I still worry about our starting pitching. Lester is still not 100%, Arrieta and Hendricks are pitching better but I don't know if we can keep up with LA, especially with Kershaw coming back. We have a good chance of getting by the Nationals but the Dodgers are going to be tough.

Kersh tends to shit the bed in October.

I work with a lot of Dodger fans. They all fear us most in the NL

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