Would You Take a Chance on Matt Harvey?

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
Matt Harvey is almost certain to be non-tendered by the Mets as his estimated arbitration award is likely to be about $9 million. My guess is that he could be had for $2-$3 mil. Would you take a look? Would Theo? I'm thinking yes and yes. The Mets are absolutely horrible in their training and medicals and there is no question he's been mishandled. It's possible he's been too damaged but it's also possible that he hasn't and at that price it could be worth the risk because you could even put him in the pen if he doesn't win a rotation spot. The guy was an elite MLB TOR arm just two years ago. Thoughts?
 

CSF77

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
17,955
Liked Posts:
2,775
Location:
San Diego
If he was the replacement for Jake I would be disapointed.

If he blocks Tseng ditto

I view him as worse than Hendricks. About equal to Lackey right now.

Now I question his TOR ability. I would peg him with Wheeler. Good arm that has not put together consistent campaigns. Noah and DeGromm are the eliete arms on that team.

Harvey had a decent rookie year and did a strong play off run but everything he has shown is MOR. Not TOR

honestly they should aim higher and target a SP like Archer in a trade with excess depth. Get in the Otani sweepstakes. Pick up Cashner on a minor league deal and fix him at AAA. Then start Tseng as the 5.

As far as Harvey goes: would rather resign Jake and over pay. Would cringe but Jake is a proven TOR. Not a MOR.
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
If he was the replacement for Jake I would be disapointed.

If he blocks Tseng ditto

I view him as worse than Hendricks. About equal to Lackey right now.

Now I question his TOR ability. I would peg him with Wheeler. Good arm that has not put together consistent campaigns. Noah and DeGromm are the eliete arms on that team.

Harvey had a decent rookie year and did a strong play off run but everything he has shown is MOR. Not TOR

honestly they should aim higher and target a SP like Archer in a trade with excess depth. Get in the Otani sweepstakes. Pick up Cashner on a minor league deal and fix him at AAA. Then start Tseng as the 5.

As far as Harvey goes: would rather resign Jake and over pay. Would cringe but Jake is a proven TOR. Not a MOR.

Harvey would be a buy low proposition though, and could be a bullpen piece maybe even a closer. Even as awful as he's been this year the guy still has a lifetime 3.46 ERA and 3.27 FIP to go with an 8.74 K/9 and a 2.40 BB/9. That really can't be ignored and it would be nice to have a guy with some velo and that doesn't look to have dropped off much even after the surgery. I think it would be shortsighted not to look. In no way do I think he should be considered a key piece, but to take a flyer makes sense to me.

Edit: I just looked at the stats and in close to the same amount of innings Harvey has better numbers than Hendricks almost a full run difference in FIP. Unless he's really the asshole he's made out to be, which could simply be the NY media, it would make no sense not to consider him.
 

Parade_Rain

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Aug 23, 2012
Posts:
9,995
Liked Posts:
3,630
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
Solid reclamation project. Fits what Bosio did before the Cubs became big winners. I'd strongly consider this.
 

CSF77

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
17,955
Liked Posts:
2,775
Location:
San Diego
Rather they target a upg to Q as the 2. Splitting up Lester and Q should be the priority.
 

greg23

Well-known member
Joined:
Sep 28, 2014
Posts:
8,513
Liked Posts:
4,654
I'd take Harvey at the 5 as a replacement for the retired lackey.

Doubt anyone gets him signed for 2-3 million per year.....hes a pitcher, he's young, its baseball, teams are flush with money.
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
Rather they target a upg to Q as the 2. Splitting up Lester and Q should be the priority.

This would be as an addition to the plans, not a key cog because of the uncertainty. I still think they will have to trade a roster piece for a pitcher because Lester can no longer be your #1 pitcher and unless they're targeting Darvish or look to re-sign Jake, which I don't think they are, something has to be done. Harvey is in addition to all that. Maybe he starts as a #5 and wins that wins that job, hell maybe he's a bullpen piece that could become a closer. His stuff is too good not to look. That said he might want to sign with a non-contender that can guarantee him a roster spot.
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
I'd take Harvey at the 5 as a replacement for the retired lackey.

Doubt anyone gets him signed for 2-3 million per year.....hes a pitcher, he's young, its baseball, teams are flush with money.

Even if it's $5 mil it would be worth it. That's chicken feed. I can't see him signing for any more than that after this year.
 

JZsportsfan

New member
Joined:
Mar 31, 2013
Posts:
2,503
Liked Posts:
674
Location:
Chicago
Absolutely I would. The Cubs likely need to replace 2 SP this offseason. You can do a lot worse than Harvey as your #5 pitcher. Low risk, very high reward. Worst case scenario he blocks Tseng and one of them is used as trade bait. Harvey is only 28, he needs a change of scenery more than any player I've ever seen. I think he would be great for the Cubs as a Lackey replacement. That still gives them the flexibility to trade for or sign a TOR type arm
 

Parade_Rain

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Aug 23, 2012
Posts:
9,995
Liked Posts:
3,630
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
...honestly they should aim higher and target a SP like Archer in a trade with excess depth. Get in the Otani sweepstakes. Pick up Cashner on a minor league deal and fix him at AAA. Then start Tseng as the 5.

As far as Harvey goes: would rather resign Jake and over pay. Would cringe but Jake is a proven TOR. Not a MOR.
OK, but if Harvey doesn't cost a lot, why couldn't the Cubs re-sign Arrieta and also sign Cashner to a MiLB deal. If Bosio can work his magic on both Harvey and Cashner, the Cubs could really have depth at the starting position they haven't enjoyed previously under the new ownership..
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
OK, but if Harvey doesn't cost a lot, why couldn't the Cubs re-sign Arrieta and also sign Cashner to a MiLB deal. If Bosio can work his magic on both Harvey and Cashner, the Cubs could really have depth at the starting position they haven't enjoyed previously under the new ownership..

Exactly. When you're talking lower dollar amounts there is no reason for either/ors, and I'm sorry but saying that you don't want to block Tseng is silly. I get it, he's a nice BOR prospect, but his upside is limited. Nobody expects him to be Hendricks, for example, and Kyle himself makes me nervous in terms of depending on him as anything more than a 3 or 4, even though he certainly can pitch better than that. Tseng is an unknown, Otani is a well scouted successful professional and Harvey has been good in the past but has struggled after surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome pitching for a team with well known medical and training deficiencies. You can't compare any of them except to say that you always try to get as many arms as you can. This is a team that right now is going into next year with three 2/3 type pitchers in Lester, Quintana and Hendricks with Lester being a big question mark as he ages. Nothing should be off the table and knowing this FO I doubt anything will be.
 

Diehardfan

Well-known member
Joined:
Jun 10, 2010
Posts:
9,234
Liked Posts:
6,642
Location:
Western Burbs
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Chicago Blackhawks
Maybe, it's just me but I always thought Harvey to be a bit of a head case. He has the talent, it's just getting him to use it. I really thought he was just going through the motions in that last Mets series here at Wrigley. He had none of the fire that he had earlier in his career. I surely wouldn't put out big money for him but if they could get him on the cheap and put in some sort of a performance clause (not sure they even do that in baseball anymore), sure, why not?
 

JP Hochbaum

Well-known member
Joined:
May 22, 2012
Posts:
2,011
Liked Posts:
1,281
i would be shocked if Harvey went for less than $12 million.
 

PickSix

Well-known member
Joined:
Mar 9, 2015
Posts:
2,673
Liked Posts:
1,459
No. I would not be interested in someone else's trash. We don't need the risk at this stage of where we are at. We need options that are more of a sure thing.
With his horrible year this year and shoulder issues...not a chance I go anywhere near him.
Don't live in the past on what he was.
 

Diehardfan

Well-known member
Joined:
Jun 10, 2010
Posts:
9,234
Liked Posts:
6,642
Location:
Western Burbs
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Chicago Blackhawks
Exactly. When you're talking lower dollar amounts there is no reason for either/ors, and I'm sorry but saying that you don't want to block Tseng is silly. I get it, he's a nice BOR prospect, but his upside is limited. Nobody expects him to be Hendricks, for example, and Kyle himself makes me nervous in terms of depending on him as anything more than a 3 or 4, even though he certainly can pitch better than that. Tseng is an unknown, Otani is a well scouted successful professional and Harvey has been good in the past but has struggled after surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome pitching for a team with well known medical and training deficiencies. You can't compare any of them except to say that you always try to get as many arms as you can. This is a team that right now is going into next year with three 2/3 type pitchers in Lester, Quintana and Hendricks with Lester being a big question mark as he ages. Nothing should be off the table and knowing this FO I doubt anything will be.

That's pretty much always been the plan as far as I can tell. I mean you draft the hell out position players but leave a noticeable opening in developing pitching. I know at one time, the Cubs staff didn't have one pitcher out of their system...not sure, but that may still be the case. So far, Theo and Co. have done a real nice job of finding alternate ways of building a pitching staff...but they need to draft and develop a few pitchers themselves. So right now, I'm pretty sure he's trying to buy some time.
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
i would be shocked if Harvey went for less than $12 million.

No way is anyone going to pay him that as he just hasn't proven that he has come back from the surgery and he would only earn $8-9 million if the Mets let him go to arbitration and that's going to be too much for them. It's all going to depend on who's interested. Andrew Cashner was overpaid at $10 million in a similar situation, which really didn't work very well for Texas, and Harvey has a lot more baggage than Cashner. If you told me that someone might stretch and give him $7-8 mil, OK but I think he goes for less than that. There might be teams that like him but will let other teams take a risk in 2018 and make a run at him in 2019 if he succeeds.
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
That's pretty much always been the plan as far as I can tell. I mean you draft the hell out position players but leave a noticeable opening in developing pitching. I know at one time, the Cubs staff didn't have one pitcher out of their system...not sure, but that may still be the case. So far, Theo and Co. have done a real nice job of finding alternate ways of building a pitching staff...but they need to draft and develop a few pitchers themselves. So right now, I'm pretty sure he's trying to buy some time.

All things being equal Tseng is going to get his shot and he was a 2013 Cubs signing, Alzolay could get a cup of coffee as early as September of next year but more likely 2019. Until then they need to turn over every rock and either sign Arrieta or Darvish, or make deal which would obviously have to hit the roster this time. I've heard a lot of speculation that the team that signs Darvish will get Otani and you might look at that as a two for one deal and be OK with giving Darvish the $170-180 million he'll look for. No matter what it will be interesting.
 

fatbeard

Well-known member
Joined:
Dec 25, 2013
Posts:
13,173
Liked Posts:
12,172
It's not the money, it's the roster spot. Thoracic Outlet Syndrome is too often a death sentence for pitchers. Especially a guy who's already had a TJ. This isn't an Arrieta-like reclamation project where the body is still there but the approach and coaching screwed him up; Harvey's body is done, as sad as that is for a pitcher of his age and talent. He'd be DFA'd by May 1st if he even made the team. Why waste the roster spot? Better to go with Tseng, Montogomery, Zastryzny, etc...
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
It's not the money, it's the roster spot. Thoracic Outlet Syndrome is too often a death sentence for pitchers. Especially a guy who's already had a TJ. This isn't an Arrieta-like reclamation project where the body is still there but the approach and coaching screwed him up; Harvey's body is done, as sad as that is for a pitcher of his age and talent. He'd be DFA'd by May 1st if he even made the team. Why waste the roster spot? Better to go with Tseng, Montogomery, Zastryzny, etc...

Velo isn't the issue with Harvey though, it's command and that's not about the surgery. I would agree if he was at 93-94 mph but he's at 95-96 and he's only a year out from the knife. I don't think he's done.
 

JZsportsfan

New member
Joined:
Mar 31, 2013
Posts:
2,503
Liked Posts:
674
Location:
Chicago
The Mets are such a trainwreck, I refuse to beleive Harvey is done until he fails on another team. I don't know how anybody succeeds with that organization. They need to clean house and get their shit together. They were built to be a NL power for 5 years and they blew it.
 

Top