MLB trade rumors put out their projected arb for teams

beckdawg

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I'm not sure they offer Martin arb but I think they might bring him back. They are gonna replace Jay and chances are whoever they get will be mostly a defensive replacement guy who doesn't hit much.
 

DanTown

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I'm not sure they offer Martin arb but I think they might bring him back. They are gonna replace Jay and chances are whoever they get will be mostly a defensive replacement guy who doesn't hit much.

Would rather get Jerrod Dyson.
 

greg23

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I'm not sure they offer Martin arb but I think they might bring him back. They are gonna replace Jay and chances are whoever they get will be mostly a defensive replacement guy who doesn't hit much.

5 mil for a guy who hit about 160 and pegged as a pinch runner/defense replacement?

No chance
 

beckdawg

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5 mil for a guy who hit about 160 and pegged as a pinch runner/defense replacement?

No chance

Did you miss the part where I said they may not offer him arb? You can refuse to offer someone arb and sign them for less if no one else wants them. Given there was basically 0 interest in him I doubt he'd get more than a million or two in FA. For a back up OF who can play all 3 positions and who's decent speed off the bench that's not bad. Not saying he's the only option but they gotta replace Jay with someone and presumably someone part time given Happ/Almora playing more time in CF.
 

beckdawg

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Would rather get Jerrod Dyson.

I assume most teams would too. I imagine someone offers him starter money and I can't imagine the cubs with Happ/almora doing that.
 

anotheridiot

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everyone talked about locking up Jake, sure sounds like Kyle deserves a rizzo deal now.
 

beckdawg

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everyone talked about locking up Jake, sure sounds like Kyle deserves a rizzo deal now.

Gonna be hard to get Kyle on a Rizzo deal after the way he has pitched. Reason rizzo is on a rizzo deal is because he was mediocre the first few years in the majors. He went nuts after the deal was signed. For reference here, Clayton Kershaw's first 3 years he was 3.17/3.32 ERA/FIP, 83 games started(26-23) 483.0 IP, 497 k's(9.26 k/9), 224 BB(4.17 bb/9). Hendricks in his first 4 years 99 games started(38-22), 2.94/3.43 ERA/FIP, 590.0 IP, 507 k(7.73 k/9) 142 bb(2.17 bb/9). Now I'm not saying Hendricks is a total match for Kershaw here. For one thing high k rate pitchers are always going to be more popular among teams. And obviously Kershaw was a lot younger. But the fact that he's even marginally comparable says a lot about the type of deal Hendricks should be looking to get.

That's not to say I don't think the cubs should lock him up. Think you'd probably look at something like $7 mil in 2018, $12 mil in 2019, $16 mil in 2020 and then roughly $18 mil the next 3 years for a 6 year $100 mil extension. You over pay a bit on the front side vs arb and reap some of the benefits in 21-23 when you'll be butting up against contract for other young guys. Would make him a FA at 33. He might want fewer buy out years post rookie deal though given he'd be 33. You could also look at something like 5 years $75-80 mil range to buy out his 3 remaining arb years + 2 more.
 

CSF77

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He is worth a Homer Baley starter deal for sure. Considering his talent that is a great reward.

Honestly they could slot him in between Lester and Q for years and then work on giving Q a extension.

That should be your core going forward. I’m really not a fan of Monty in the rotation myself. Back to back lefties rarely work unless they have a completely diffrent pitching style. And he really doesn’t stand apart from Lester and Q.

So in view of that they should look at a upgrade here. Tseng looks like he can replace Lackey but replacing Jake is a whole another matter. Jake is going to net 2-4 WAR and you are not going to replace that with out spending.

Personally I believe that they should invest into the current roster then decide on who falls into depth. Looking at it Happ is a Luxury. Even in the series Happ has fallen into a reserve role which says in season injury depth.

So looking at it that way they shoukd look into trading Happ for a controlled starter. Archer is my preferred target.

With that savings to the rotation then they should extend Wade. Dont care if against philosophy. You pay for guys like him and don’t expect a drop off with age.

CF they have to play Almora every day. He has grown into his body now and is starting to drive the ball with authority. There is no reason why he should not play every day. Guy is a gamer and is always coming up with the big hit.

Jay they can let walk.

So over all this team is pretty set up for next year as is. Sure if hey could extend Jake but honestly that would be a huge mistake. That pay day would affect the future and retaining players going into their prime vs a guy on the back end of it.
 

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Jay is the most clutch hitter on the team and plays good D. Crazy to let him go.

Happ is a 35 HR guy playing decent defense. I prefer him to Almora
 

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Jay is the most clutch hitter on the team and plays good D. Crazy to let him go.

Happ is a 35 HR guy playing decent defense. I prefer him to Almora
Why not have both out there. I mean, if they decide to trade Schwarber in the off-season, you could have a platoon of Jay/Almora in CF and Happ in LF.
 

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Why not have both out there. I mean, if they decide to trade Schwarber in the off-season, you could have a platoon of Jay/Almora in CF and Happ in LF.
I'm with you on this.

Schwarber is a great guy with huge power but a low average, KO machine. His defense is terrible and the worst base runner on the team. I would like the cubs to trade him for Robertson
 

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They need to replace Jake more than anything else. You are not getting to far with Lester, Q, Hendricks, Monty, Tseng. That is a .500 rotation.
 

beckdawg

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Why not have both out there. I mean, if they decide to trade Schwarber in the off-season, you could have a platoon of Jay/Almora in CF and Happ in LF.

Given the year Jay had I imagine someone offers him a shot at starting rather than what he's doing now. I would imagine he can get some where between $12-15 mil which is significantly more than the cubs are paying him at $8 mil. I mean look people need to realize they aren't dealing Schwarber. Whether or not you agree with their assessment, he's a potential 40 HR guy who has top notch intangibles that they love. And the fact of the matter is his numbers are drastically skewed by a horrible April/May. He hit .244/.336/.557 from june onward. What killed his numbers this year is he had 206 PAs in April/May where he hit .165/.286/.341. That's a tough hole to dig out of. He probably shouldn't have been batting lead off and I imagine the cubs probably bought too big into his WS performance when the smarter thing would have been to expect him to start slow after missing so much time in 2016.

Overall, he had a 128 wRC+ from June onward which if he'd done it over the full season would put him tied for 33rd with Buster Posey and Khris Davis. No team in their right mind is going to give up on that kind of bat because they don't make many of them and frankly it's reasonable to assume there's more in him than that. Clearly he has flaws to work on but if he's this in a flawed state what is he when he works those out?

People seem to want a boilerplate line up that never changes but that's just not who maddon is. He's a guy who plays platoon splits heavy and who doesn't want to burn his guys out using them every day early in the season. So quite frankly, I think Heyward, Bryant, Rizzo and maybe Russell are the only guys who will start 140+ games. The rest I think they plan to rotate around and play the best matchups. Baez and Almora have large platoon splits. They kill LHP but are noticeably worse vs RHP. Schwarber and Zobrist are kind of the reverse. And Happ is so flexible you can move him around wherever you need to plug gaps in the line up. Don't want to start Almora vs a tough RHP? Play Happ in CF, Schwarber in LF and Zobrist/Baez at 2B. Don't want to expose Schwarber vs a tough LHP? Play Almora CF, Happ LF, and Baez at 2B. Need to give Bryant a day off? Move Baez to 3B, Happ to 2B. Need to give Heyward a day off? Move Zobrist to RF and Happ to one of the other 3 positions.

Having all those guys isn't a burden. It's a positive because Zobrist is arguably the worst of the bunch and he's still pretty starter caliber albeit not what he used to be. That's why I assume any other OF they get is going to be a guy who really is only a defensive replacement plus maybe a pinch runner type. That is to say someone you don't care about giving a ton of PAs to. With the guys they have now you basically have 3 rosters spots to play with assuming joe goes for an 8 man pen and one of those 3 is the back up catcher. One probably needs to be a guy who can cover all 3 OF spots. And the other is probably an infielder or a 3rd catcher if they decide to go that route(presumably La Stella).

And to be blunt, unless you're getting say Archer, trading Schwarber doesn't make any sense because the bat he gives you for the price you are paying is just ridiculous value. Despite his struggles, he was still worth 1.5 fWAR. On the open market you're paying $10-12 mil for a player like that. He made around $500k. Even if you think he's an imperfect fit, the difference in money is fairly drastic. The difference between him and what Jay will get is probably the difference between a legitimate #3 pitcher and a Brett Anderson type. I'd rather spend the money on pitching and hope he fixes some of his flaws.
 

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The Cubs have too many defensive liabilities on the 25 man. No matter how many HR a player hits, that player raises the pitch count of the staff, if not ERA, as they don't cover the same turf as others.
 

beckdawg

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The Cubs have too many defensive liabilities on the 25 man. No matter how many HR a player hits, that player raises the pitch count of the staff, if not ERA, as they don't cover the same turf as others.

Not sure I agree there. If you're starting Almora in CF more he's not a defensive liability. Heyward obviously isn't. Schwarber is bad but not Manny Ramirez bad. Bryant is a shade under very good. Russell is elite. Baez is elite. Rizzo is elite. Happ and Zobrist I would say are average maybe slightly below. And contreras is pretty good. It's a pretty solid defense frankly. Schwarber is the obvious big hole but the reason you have the other guys out there is to protect him as much as you can.

And assuming you pick up a 5th OF like Martin is with the glove you have the ability to yank Schwarber fairly easily if you have a lead. That's basically what we saw in the second half of the year. They'd give Schwarber about 3 ABs and then if they had a lead double switch him and the pitcher for a defensive replacement.
 

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Not sure I agree there. If you're starting Almora in CF more he's not a defensive liability. Heyward obviously isn't. Schwarber is bad but not Manny Ramirez bad. Bryant is a shade under very good. Russell is elite. Baez is elite. Rizzo is elite. Happ and Zobrist I would say are average maybe slightly below. And contreras is pretty good. It's a pretty solid defense frankly. Schwarber is the obvious big hole but the reason you have the other guys out there is to protect him as much as you can.

And assuming you pick up a 5th OF like Martin is with the glove you have the ability to yank Schwarber fairly easily if you have a lead. That's basically what we saw in the second half of the year. They'd give Schwarber about 3 ABs and then if they had a lead double switch him and the pitcher for a defensive replacement.
If you have a player that has to be double switched, that player isn't one who should be considered as untradeable.
 

beckdawg

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If you have a player that has to be double switched, that player isn't one who should be considered as untradeable.

I didn't say he was untradable. I said they weren't going to. I suppose that semantics but the point I was making is that you trade players based on value. If you can trade him for a starter and then sign someone cheap enough that it's equivalent value then fine, trade him. But I don't think you're going to find that sort of trade. For example, maybe you could deal him for Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gausman and then keep Jay. But frankly I'd rather sign Cobb and have Schwarber than that pairing. If you start getting into the Garrit Cole territory trade wise I think it's a more interesting discussion but is that sort of deal really out there for him straight up right now? I'm dubious.
 

CSF77

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Marcus Stroman Is another guy that would be targetable for Schwarber. Kyle slots better on a AL team anyways. Add a SP prospect like Alzolay and they might deal. Marcus put up a 3.4 WAR this year and honestly he is up with Q in value going forward.

That is a deal that makes sense for the Cubs. Happ full time in LF gives him a opertunity to settle in and lead off.
 

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