IGT: Chicago @ Washington NLDS 2017 Game 4

TC in Mississippi

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Cubs lead series 2-1

10/10 4:30 PM CDT

Roark (13-11, 4.67 ERA) vs Arrieta (14-10, 3.53 ERA)
 

brett05

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I think if the weather holds out, it ends today
 

TC in Mississippi

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I think if the weather holds out, it ends today

Starting to think that they won't get this in. The forecast looks worse the later it gets so they may not see a window. If they can get it in though, yeah it ends today and Baker is looking for work.
 

brett05

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Starting to think that they won't get this in. The forecast looks worse the later it gets so they may not see a window. If they can get it in though, yeah it ends today and Baker is looking for work.

I agree, they let go of Baker. I still don't see anyway Baker doesn't enter into the Hall of Fame as a manager tho
 

SilenceS

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Didnt they move it up because of weather?
 

beckdawg

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I'm curious how this plays out with Harper. There''s obviously the rumors of him and Bryant's love affair. Can't help but think of Fowler/Heyward when the cubs knocked the cards out in 2015. Heyward saw the writing on the wall and chose the cubs over returning to St. Louis. If Harper has the same sort of feelings and to be fair the rumors are already out there about him wanting to play in chicago.... putting this into his mind headed into his walk year in 2018 would be interesting.

That is of course assuming the cubs ya know... win.
 

fatbeard

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I'm curious how this plays out with Harper. There''s obviously the rumors of him and Bryant's love affair. Can't help but think of Fowler/Heyward when the cubs knocked the cards out in 2015. Heyward saw the writing on the wall and chose the cubs over returning to St. Louis. If Harper has the same sort of feelings and to be fair the rumors are already out there about him wanting to play in chicago.... putting this into his mind headed into his walk year in 2018 would be interesting.

That is of course assuming the cubs ya know... win.

+$700mil in commitments to two players? I just don't see how keeping both of them long-term is financially feasible, especially if Russell develops at the plate. Gotta pay Hendricks, too.
 

beckdawg

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+$700mil in commitments to two players? I just don't see how keeping both of them long-term is financially feasible, especially if Russell develops at the plate. Gotta pay Hendricks, too.

I don't think it's particularly feasible either but just saying it's an interesting thought. I honestly don't think $700 mil between the two would make sense but I believe both are Boras guys and I believe if Harper gets the idea of "if you can't beat them join them" in his head you might feasibly convince both to take minor pay cuts to say $600 mil between the two. If we're assuming both get 10 year $350ish mil deals in an open market are they really sweating $5 mil/year if they truly do want to play together? Bigger issue in my eyes is rotating the team around them as I doubt Heyward opts out which would mean you have to play either Heyward in CF or move Harper to LF and deal Schwarber.

I think they may have a decent shot at locking Russell up this winter. If his divorce goes through he may be more open to getting a payday given he's likely losing half of what he's made thus far. And while he's been good thus far he's not really been that superstar level player he probably could be. Most of the war metrics like him but mostly for his defense. Bat hasn't come around yet so I could realistically see him getting a below market Rizzo like deal. On Hendricks, he was a 8th round pick and got $125k signing bonus. Prior to this coming season he's really not making big money so I think he too would be approachable to re-sign this year. As I mentioned in the arb thread I doubt he'll come cheap given his performance but if you lock those two up I think you're left with a lot of wiggle room.

Their salary situation isn't all that dire frankly. After 2018 you're looking at $20-21 mil a year depending on the year for Heyward. Lester has a $27.5 mil year in 18 and a $20 mil year in 19 plus an option year in 20($20 mil). Rizzo has $11.3 mil in 19 and a cheap option year in 20($16.5 mil). Zobrist is the only other guy making big money in 19 and beyond. And assuming you lock up Bryant, Russell and Hendricks, your only other Arb cases to worry about are Baez arb 1 in 2019, Monty arb 1 in 2019, and Schwarber arb 1 in 2019. Edwards, Almora and Contreras may be arb eligible in 2020. Oh and I guess I forgot Quintana. He's got a $10.5 mil option in 19 and a $11.5 mil option in 20.

If you tally that up, you're talking $82.5 mil committed to guys in 19 and $69 mil in 20 not including arb and the possible re-signings mentioned. So, adding 2 $30 mil/year guys isn't impossible but you'd really need to get creative around the roster specifically with starting pitching. And what you do with Rizzo in 2021 when he's a FA would be iffy. Paying him market value would probably be impossible. But hopefully by 2020 a lot of this young pitching the cubs have in their system materializes and the need to spend FA money there will diminish.

Like I said I'm not saying it's a lock or anything but it's not entirely a crazy thought. And dear god could you imagine facing that potential 2019-20 cubs line up? They were 4th in the league in runs without Harper. If you want to make that push to win it while you got the guys young, that would be a move to put your team on another level.
 

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Just heard the hot weather girl on ESPN 1000, say she thinks they'll get the game in but not without delays.
 

TC in Mississippi

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I don't think it's particularly feasible either but just saying it's an interesting thought. I honestly don't think $700 mil between the two would make sense but I believe both are Boras guys and I believe if Harper gets the idea of "if you can't beat them join them" in his head you might feasibly convince both to take minor pay cuts to say $600 mil between the two. If we're assuming both get 10 year $350ish mil deals in an open market are they really sweating $5 mil/year if they truly do want to play together? Bigger issue in my eyes is rotating the team around them as I doubt Heyward opts out which would mean you have to play either Heyward in CF or move Harper to LF and deal Schwarber.

I think they may have a decent shot at locking Russell up this winter. If his divorce goes through he may be more open to getting a payday given he's likely losing half of what he's made thus far. And while he's been good thus far he's not really been that superstar level player he probably could be. Most of the war metrics like him but mostly for his defense. Bat hasn't come around yet so I could realistically see him getting a below market Rizzo like deal. On Hendricks, he was a 8th round pick and got $125k signing bonus. Prior to this coming season he's really not making big money so I think he too would be approachable to re-sign this year. As I mentioned in the arb thread I doubt he'll come cheap given his performance but if you lock those two up I think you're left with a lot of wiggle room.

Their salary situation isn't all that dire frankly. After 2018 you're looking at $20-21 mil a year depending on the year for Heyward. Lester has a $27.5 mil year in 18 and a $20 mil year in 19 plus an option year in 20($20 mil). Rizzo has $11.3 mil in 19 and a cheap option year in 20($16.5 mil). Zobrist is the only other guy making big money in 19 and beyond. And assuming you lock up Bryant, Russell and Hendricks, your only other Arb cases to worry about are Baez arb 1 in 2019, Monty arb 1 in 2019, and Schwarber arb 1 in 2019. Edwards, Almora and Contreras may be arb eligible in 2020. Oh and I guess I forgot Quintana. He's got a $10.5 mil option in 19 and a $11.5 mil option in 20.

If you tally that up, you're talking $82.5 mil committed to guys in 19 and $69 mil in 20 not including arb and the possible re-signings mentioned. So, adding 2 $30 mil/year guys isn't impossible but you'd really need to get creative around the roster specifically with starting pitching. And what you do with Rizzo in 2021 when he's a FA would be iffy. Paying him market value would probably be impossible. But hopefully by 2020 a lot of this young pitching the cubs have in their system materializes and the need to spend FA money there will diminish.

Like I said I'm not saying it's a lock or anything but it's not entirely a crazy thought. And dear god could you imagine facing that potential 2019-20 cubs line up? They were 4th in the league in runs without Harper. If you want to make that push to win it while you got the guys young, that would be a move to put your team on another level.

Yeah, I mean it's definitely a fantasy scenario but I just don't see it. Honestly I think the Nats sit down seriously this winter and see if they can't get Harper locked up early. I'm betting they can't and they'll deal him. why put up with the circus next year if you can net some talent and move on? There's no one to challenge them in the division next year with Atlanta's internal issues, the Marlins sale, the Mets ineptitude and the Phillies being a year away. They'll have a new manager (assuming they don't advance against us) and Eaton is a Gold Glove RF. You go in anew direction and build a solid team. Even without Harper they'll contend at least 3 more years. Even for a one year rental Harper will net a haul.
 

beckdawg

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Yeah, I mean it's definitely a fantasy scenario but I just don't see it. Honestly I think the Nats sit down seriously this winter and see if they can't get Harper locked up early. I'm betting they can't and they'll deal him. why put up with the circus next year if you can net some talent and move on? There's no one to challenge them in the division next year with Atlanta's internal issues, the Marlins sale, the Mets ineptitude and the Phillies being a year away. They'll have a new manager (assuming they don't advance against us) and Eaton is a Gold Glove RF. You go in anew direction and build a solid team. Even without Harper they'll contend at least 3 more years. Even for a one year rental Harper will net a haul.

I don't think Harper really wants to be in washington. He's had spats with their front office. I could see them dealing him though as you say. But the thing is you'd basically have to work out where he wants to go because I can't imagine a team rents him at the cost he will take. Gotta be a team that can re-sign him.
 

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Bryant and Harper are tight, especially their wives could easily see them making a pact to play together and trading some dollars to do it
 

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I'd love to see Harper on the Cubs in RF.
 

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Bryant and Harper are tight, especially their wives could easily see them making a pact to play together and trading some dollars to do it
Rizzo looks to be bonding with him too.

I think it happens, but Heyward going to need to be moved

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Rizzo looks to be bonding with him too.

I think it happens, but Heyward going to need to be moved

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They aren't moving Heyward with that contract. I'm not seeing Harper in a Cubs uni.
 

beckdawg

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Rizzo looks to be bonding with him too.

I think it happens, but Heyward going to need to be moved

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Can't imagine anyone would jump at the chance to trade for Heyward. Plus I think people underplay his leadership within the team. And really other than his missing power he wasn't *that* bad this year. .259/.326/.389 with his defense is good. It's not $20 mil good but it wouldn't surprise me if he took another step forward next year with some more time in the offseason getting minor tweaks down. His ISO is up 36 points from last year and presumably if you got Harper you would consider him in CF where his numbers look better comparable to other CF.

If you compare his year this year and his 5 win 2014 with the braves the numbers aren't far off. He hit .271/.351/.384 that year. So you're talking what 12 points in BA and 1.5% more walks? That's doable.
 

TC in Mississippi

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They aren't moving Heyward with that contract. I'm not seeing Harper in a Cubs uni.

They'd have to eat about $40 mil but he could be moved. I just don't see that happening and I think those that think that Harper gets $350 mil are dreaming. I think he gets $450 with blinking an eye and no way do the Cubs do that.
 

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