What Theo needs to do in 2018

TC in Mississippi · Oct 18, 2017

millerjg01 said:
I understand your points but I just see him make a lot of really bad in game moves (or lack thereof) and also, his line ups aren't always the best. I know the man has taken the cubs to three straight NLCS and of course has the big WS ring so I figured my gripes would fall on deaf ears. I just don't think he's a great in game manager. He is probably the best 'clubhouse' guy I've ever seen and does a great job keeping the team level and their heads where they need to be. Some of my complaint probably stems from I am a fan of smallball, bunting guys over, and etc. and Joe isn't that guy. Also, he yanks starters WAY TOO EARLY 90% of the time IMO.

I agree 100% with you...Dusty Baker sucks. Never have been a Dusty fan.

We're moving to a time when starters will only go about 5 innings on average, Joe is just ahead of the curve. Roberts took Darvish out after 81 pitches, McCullers was pulled by Houston after 2 hits and 1 run, Sonny Gray was pulled early as well, and that's just yesterday. In 5 years I doubt you see more than a few guys who get to the third time through the order. The issue is that while the bullpen was a strength at times this year, it was also a terrible weakness at others. As far as the lineups he's unconventional and I get why that's uncomfortable for folks but I'd far rather see those risks being taken than just following the tried and true. High risk, high reward. Joe is not perfect, no manager is, but I've been a fan of his for a decade and I like more than I don't. I might take Francona, Boche and Girardi over Maddon but that's about it.

fatbeard · Oct 18, 2017

millerjg01 said:
I understand your points but I just see him make a lot of really bad in game moves (or lack thereof) and also, his line ups aren't always the best.

His lineups have resulted in offenses that ranked third, first, and second in NL runs scored 2015-2017.

millerjg01 said:
I know the man has taken the cubs to three straight NLCS and of course has the big WS ring so I figured my gripes would fall on deaf ears.

Your gripes aren't falling on deaf ears because of Maddon's recent success, they're falling on deaf ears because they are dumb gripes. See above for a good example of how you're saying things that simply cannot be true.

millerjg01 said:
I just don't think he's a great in game manager.

Originally you argued that Maddon "sucks" as in in-game manager (which was, of course, an absurd position), but now you're walking it back to him merely being "not great." Which literally everyone here agrees with. Holy shifting goalposts, Batman.

millerjg01 said:
Some of my complaint probably stems from I am a fan of smallball, bunting guys over, and etc. and Joe isn't that guy. Also, he yanks starters WAY TOO EARLY 90% of the time IMO.

I have news for you, no manager in MLB is that guy anymore. No one plays small ball and everyone goes to the bullpen early because it's smart baseball.

CSF77 · Oct 18, 2017

TL1961 said:
Happ is no leadoff man. Low ba and few walks.

Guess that means Billy Hamilton is not a lead off also by that definition

CSF77 · Oct 18, 2017

fatbeard said:
His lineups have resulted in offenses that ranked third, first, and second in NL runs scored 2015-2017.

Your gripes aren't falling on deaf ears because of Maddon's recent success, they're falling on deaf ears because they are dumb gripes. See above for a good example of how you're saying things that simply cannot be true.

Originally you argued that Maddon "sucks" as in in-game manager (which was, of course, an absurd position), but now you're walking it back to him merely being "not great." Which literally everyone here agrees with. Holy shifting goalposts, Batman.

I have news for you, no manager in MLB is that guy anymore. No one plays small ball and everyone goes to the bullpen early because it's smart baseball.

Honestly what he is doing wrong is he goes away from what got him to the post season. He kept moving guys around to keep them mentally fresh in season and now he has pretty much locked the line up.

He did this last year also but Javy carried them past LA last year and Zo carried them past Cle.

This year the O is being shut down and he is not mixing in a fresh bat like Alva at C or Happ. He is sticking with the same core regardless of the result.

So if anything he is putting too much faith into guys that are not productive.

brett05 · Oct 18, 2017

The only thing I disagree with is that we are going to be expecting our starters to go five innings in the playoffs. True for the non-aces, but aces like Strasburg will go going thru lineups three times if they are effective.

That said, salaries for non closers is about to skyrocket.

CSF77 · Oct 18, 2017

brett05 said:
The only thing I disagree with is that we are going to be expecting our starters to go five innings in the playoffs. True for the non-aces, but aces like Strasburg will go going thru lineups three times if they are effective.

That said, salaries for non closers is about to skyrocket.

I agree with this. Last year is starting a trend in mid inning closer types.

But all it is doing is giving a opertunity for 2 inning reliever types to cash in. The 1 inning fillers are not going to see a pay off

fatbeard · Oct 18, 2017

CSF77 said:
Honestly what he is doing wrong is he goes away from what got him to the post season. He kept moving guys around to keep them mentally fresh in season and now he has pretty much locked the line up.

He did this last year also but Javy carried them past LA last year and Zo carried them past Cle.

This year the O is being shut down and he is not mixing in a fresh bat like Alva at C or Happ. He is sticking with the same core regardless of the result.

So if anything he is putting too much faith into guys that are not productive.

But how much of this is "going away from what works" and how much is due to the format of the playoffs? In the regular season you're facing a different pitcher every day, so lineup juggling for match ups every day makes sense. In the playoffs you're facing the same pitchers multiple times in a series, so even if you're playing match ups there will be less variety in the day to day lineup. You're also not at all concerned with keeping bench guys fresh or resting regulars for the long haul, because there is no "long haul." You're unlikely to sub unless there's a very compelling reason to do so.

Or, think of it this way: Your best players tend to be your best players in the long run for a reason. In the event that a guy is struggling, by continually sending him out there you're expanding the sample size and increasing the odds that he'll regress in a positive direction back to his true talent level. Girardi sending Aaron Judge back out every day is a great example of this. People were screaming for Judge to get benched; they sure shut up quick. Or Russell & Rizzo last year. Eventually they break through, it just isn't happening soon enough for the Cubs this year. Sometimes baseball is cruel that way.

CSF77 · Oct 18, 2017

Baez: 0-14 vs Nats. 0 for 6 vs Dodgers. What is working or not? He is mired in a slump that is the reality.

Jay 3 for 11 vs for the most part RHP. On the Nats. But 1 for 10 vs the LHP staff of the Dodgers? Joe has me miffed on that one.

Rizzo produced vs the Nats 6 RBI’s and I get where he would be stymied vs the lefties.

But you would expect a pick me up from Baez.... not or Contreras...2-11 not as anemic and Bryant 3-12 again not as bad.

To be honest the 2 hot bats are Almora and Russell and they need to start working up pitch counts to get into their MR. That is the only way they can win a game at this point.

Which means 1-5 OBA hitters that work up counts with Russell, Heyward and Almora trying to clean up the bases.

beckdawg · Oct 18, 2017

Baez makes me feel bi-polar. Some times you see him make a play and you think "man they can't trade him" and then other times he swings at a ball around his head and think "nah they should deal him." And if I'm being honest, I think he's always going to be a guy with tools that tease you but ultimately is betrayed by his plate approach. I mean he's nearly 1300 PAs into his career and he looks as raw as he did when he first came up.

Honestly, I wonder if there isn't a deal out there for controllable starting pitching that makes sense. Baez reminds me a bit of Jean Segura in terms of value and he was dealt last winter for Walker. Presumably the cubs will canvas the 29 other teams for pitching. Moving Baez or Happ would simplify things a bit. Just as an example here, I remember tampa being interested in baez a year or so ago. Blake Snell for Baez seems like it might make sense for both sides. Perhaps you expand it a bit and talk on Alex Colome as well but certainly feel like Baez could be an answer for their SS/2B needs or even possibly 3B if they wanted to move Longoria to DH.

DanTown · Oct 18, 2017

beckdawg said:
Baez makes me feel bi-polar. Some times you see him make a play and you think "man they can't trade him" and then other times he swings at a ball around his head and think "nah they should deal him." And if I'm being honest, I think he's always going to be a guy with tools that tease you but ultimately is betrayed by his plate approach. I mean he's nearly 1300 PAs into his career and he looks as raw as he did when he first came up.

Honestly, I wonder if there isn't a deal out there for controllable starting pitching that makes sense. Baez reminds me a bit of Jean Segura in terms of value and he was dealt last winter for Walker. Presumably the cubs will canvas the 29 other teams for pitching. Moving Baez or Happ would simplify things a bit. Just as an example here, I remember tampa being interested in baez a year or so ago. Blake Snell for Baez seems like it might make sense for both sides. Perhaps you expand it a bit and talk on Alex Colome as well but certainly feel like Baez could be an answer for their SS/2B needs or even possibly 3B if they wanted to move Longoria to DH.

The problem with Baez becomes you can't build a lineup with him in it and if you are, it's him batting eighth. The Cubs aren't going to replace Bryant/Russell/Contreras/Rizzo so that means to improve the offense or the consistency of the team, you're looking at LF/CF/RF/2B to do it.

Unless you're doing something major with the construction of the team (i.e trading Heyward, playing Bryant full-time in the OF), I don't see the spot for Baez here besides as a super IF who occasionally mashes.

TC in Mississippi · Oct 18, 2017

beckdawg said:
Baez makes me feel bi-polar. Some times you see him make a play and you think "man they can't trade him" and then other times he swings at a ball around his head and think "nah they should deal him." And if I'm being honest, I think he's always going to be a guy with tools that tease you but ultimately is betrayed by his plate approach. I mean he's nearly 1300 PAs into his career and he looks as raw as he did when he first came up.

Honestly, I wonder if there isn't a deal out there for controllable starting pitching that makes sense. Baez reminds me a bit of Jean Segura in terms of value and he was dealt last winter for Walker. Presumably the cubs will canvas the 29 other teams for pitching. Moving Baez or Happ would simplify things a bit. Just as an example here, I remember tampa being interested in baez a year or so ago. Blake Snell for Baez seems like it might make sense for both sides. Perhaps you expand it a bit and talk on Alex Colome as well but certainly feel like Baez could be an answer for their SS/2B needs or even possibly 3B if they wanted to move Longoria to DH.

They’re more likely to trade Archer than Snell.

beckdawg · Oct 18, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
They’re more likely to trade Archer than Snell.

Well given they haven't dealt Archer yet I'm not sure they are going to. But that was more a suggestion of what could be rather than saying the cubs do trade with tampa.

beckdawg · Oct 18, 2017

DanTown said:
The problem with Baez becomes you can't build a lineup with him in it and if you are, it's him batting eighth. The Cubs aren't going to replace Bryant/Russell/Contreras/Rizzo so that means to improve the offense or the consistency of the team, you're looking at LF/CF/RF/2B to do it.

Unless you're doing something major with the construction of the team (i.e trading Heyward, playing Bryant full-time in the OF), I don't see the spot for Baez here besides as a super IF who occasionally mashes.

That's basically how I feel. To me, if you're going to change things around you either have to move Baez or Happ. I mean ideally you'd move Zobrist and give the utility role to Happ but is anyone jumping at the chance to get Zobrist right now? Plus Maddon seems to love him in the playoffs. Another issue I see with Baez is playing him really limits your option for lead off guys. Feasibly you could bat Zobrist and La Stella lead off but if Baez is starting you're then forced to LF or 3B for those 2 which then takes out Bryant/Schwarber. Obviously Bryant isn't coming out of a game save for days off.

Overall, think if Baez were dealt for a good pitcher it does make roster management easier. You likely start Zobrist at 2B daily or close to it and have Happ split time between LF/CF depending on RH/LH pitching and days off for Zobrist.

CSF77 · Oct 18, 2017

Honestly if it is Archer that they want to deal then the Cubs would be stupid to not go there.

I see it as Tampa could want Baez and his ties to Fla and PR to inspire some fans into the stadium. They have been tied to Alozay already so you can pack those 2 in as a start.

After that you have to weigh what other pieces they want. If they want Happ or Schwarber then they have to toss something back with Archer.

Also I get what you are saying about Baez. His biggest asset has been his D. He came up as this error prone guy with a monster swing. He has turned into a plus D with a bad k zone discipline. Sure he shortened his swing but it did not translate to a .800 OPS.

All I know is the longer you wait the lower his trade value goes at this point.

fatbeard · Oct 18, 2017

I wonder if Joe Girardi is regretting not benching all this struggling young sluggers earlier just to "shake things up."

CSF77 · Oct 18, 2017

fatbeard said:
I wonder if Joe Girardi is regretting not benching all this struggling young sluggers earlier just to "shake things up."

How is Happ on the bench and Jay starting over him correlate to this?

FirstTimer · Oct 19, 2017

Parade_Rain said:
Has too many players on the roster who can either hit or defend. Hard to win the WS like that.

....Wut.

Parade_Rain · Oct 19, 2017

Baez isn't going anywhere. The Cubs have no answer at SS should Russell get injured. Zo is too old to cover that and I don't think Freeman is an answer either. The kid hit well in the regular season, too, even with his frustrating strike outs. Baez essentially won the ball game last night outhitting both Bryant and Rizzo. NLCS co-MVP last season. Happ will have the Zobrist role next year of a super sub. You can't make your offense and defense worse just to grab a starting pitcher.