What Theo needs to do in 2018

chibears55 · Oct 20, 2017

Theo in his press conference today when asked about CF and adding speed to line up..

He said he doesn't look for speed guys for his lineup..
He looks for power OBP and defense though speed/athletic types help with defense and OBP

He also said if he being honest with evaluating players and needs for next year , not to be surprise if players from current mlb roster are used to trade for other needs...
He feels he has a lot of depth in organization that can be used in deals and replace those that are dealt.

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CSF77 · Oct 20, 2017

chibears55 said:
Theo in his press conference today when asked about CF and adding speed to line up..

He said he doesn't look for speed guys for his lineup..
He looks for power OBP and defense though speed/athletic types help with defense and OBP

He also said if he being honest with evaluating players and needs for next year , not to be surprise if players from current mlb roster are used to trade for other needs...
He feels he has a lot of depth in organization that can be used in deals and replace those that are dealt.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Pretty sure that means: we are trading a bat for a arm. We had to struggle getting AB’s in for players and if Russell did not get injured we would have had a bigger struggle with finding playing time. Even with Schwarber hitting AAA we had a struggle to find AB’s for Almora and Happ.

It makes sense to deal hitting for pitching and it will be the match up in deals vs player value that dictates.

If they want Archer and TB wants Baez, Almora and Alozay then you have to weigh that deal vs other offers out there for pitching.

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

CSF77 said:
Pretty sure that means: we are trading a bat for a arm. We had to struggle getting AB’s in for players and if Russell did not get injured we would have had a bigger struggle with finding playing time. Even with Schwarber hitting AAA we had a struggle to find AB’s for Almora and Happ.

It makes sense to deal hitting for pitching and it will be the match up in deals vs player value that dictates.

If they want Archer and TB wants Baez, Almora and Alozay then you have to weigh that deal vs other offers out there for pitching.

Doubt they'd trade Almora and doubt Tampa really wants him. They have Kiermaier signed through 2023.

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

Just side note... David Bote is hitting .500/.556/1.063 (8-for-16), 3 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 5 SO in the AFL. He's 24 and not not exactly a "prospect" but he also hit .272/.353/.438 in AA this year. He's a 2B so he's likely not in the cubs short term future but might be a name to watch in trade talks.

Parade_Rain · Oct 20, 2017

beckdawg said:
I've said this before but Schwarber's defense is best described as consistent but limited. By that I mean he's fairly consistent in making plays but he doesn't really have the range you'd like to see. So it's a bit of good and bad with him. He rarely just flat out blows a play. If he can get to a ball he usually makes the play. But it's more difficult for him to get to balls in the alleys. And he's got a strong arm when he does get to balls which is a plus. the long and short of things is you basically just have to play around his limited range. If you do that he's fine out there. Hopefully with Almora and Heyward out there you can cover gaps a bit better.

I dont want Heyward out there along with Schwarber. Not is good defense in IF. Not so good hitter in RF.

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

Parade_Rain said:
I dont want Heyward out there along with Schwarber. Not is good defense in IF. Not so good hitter in RF.

Can you explain what you're meaning about IF defense? I don't see how Heyward playing in RF has much to do with the infield. I'm assuming you would still likely play Baez if he were not traded. I guess you're suggesting Happ/Zobrist play on the IF?

As for Heyward's offense, he was an 88 wRC+. He wasn't *that* bad. Russell as an example was 84 this year and Baez was 98. He certainly needs to get better but I feel like people are still holding 2016 over Heyward. I mean I get it that horrible season happened but if you were to just look at 2017 headed into 2018 a guy hitting .259/.326/.389 isn't what I'd consider horrible. Him hitting for slightly more power would be nice but I'd expect his walk rate to tic up a bit(8.5% 2017 vs 10.4% career). Wouldn't shock me to see him in that .260-.270 range with a .350 on base. If he find literally any more power to go with that he'd be fairly interesting.

fatbeard · Oct 20, 2017

CSF77 said:
Pretty sure that means: we are trading a bat for a arm. We had to struggle getting AB’s in for players and if Russell did not get injured we would have had a bigger struggle with finding playing time. Even with Schwarber hitting AAA we had a struggle to find AB’s for Almora and Happ.

It makes sense to deal hitting for pitching and it will be the match up in deals vs player value that dictates.

If they want Archer and TB wants Baez, Almora and Alozay then you have to weigh that deal vs other offers out there for pitching.

Problem with trading Baez is that it leaves you praying that Bryant or Russell don't get hurt in 2018, or that a 37-year old Zobrist (who's hitting .226 since June 2016) doesn't decline further. I think the Cubs would look at moving Happ or Schwarber first.

Parade_Rain · Oct 20, 2017

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

fatbeard said:
Problem with trading Baez is that it leaves you praying that Bryant or Russell don't get hurt in 2018, or that a 37-year old Zobrist (who's hitting .226 since June 2016) doesn't decline further. I think the Cubs would look at moving Happ or Schwarber first.

I keep seeing people say this but is this really a concern? Like where are people suggesting the same thing on whether or not Rizzo gets hurt? The cubs have even fewer options to replace him. And you have all of FA to sign a vet back up who can play the infield.

I get it if people just don't want to trade Baez but that reasoning doesn't float for me. Injuries are going to happen or not. You build redundancy into your team via signings. If you trade Baez you're certainly signing a guy on the 25 man who can play 3B/SS and almost certainly they will be offering minor league deals to add depth there regardless of what happens because Freeman isn't a firm solution.

Parade_Rain · Oct 20, 2017

beckdawg said:
Can you explain what you're meaning about IF defense? I don't see how Heyward playing in RF has much to do with the infield. I'm assuming you would still likely play Baez if he were not traded. I guess you're suggesting Happ/Zobrist play on the IF?

As for Heyward's offense, he was an 88 wRC+. He wasn't *that* bad. Russell as an example was 84 this year and Baez was 98. He certainly needs to get better but I feel like people are still holding 2016 over Heyward. I mean I get it that horrible season happened but if you were to just look at 2017 headed into 2018 a guy hitting .259/.326/.389 isn't what I'd consider horrible. Him hitting for slightly more power would be nice but I'd expect his walk rate to tic up a bit(8.5% 2017 vs 10.4% career). Wouldn't shock me to see him in that .260-.270 range with a .350 on base. If he find literally any more power to go with that he'd be fairly interesting.

It's a lower case L. You know where Schwarber plays. No need for you to be deliberately obtuse.

I've heard for 2 years if Heyward could just do this or that. First year fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...yeah. You can float your if only stuff about Heyward and potential numbers. I'm not listening to them any more.

CSF77 · Oct 20, 2017

fatbeard said:
Problem with trading Baez is that it leaves you praying that Bryant or Russell don't get hurt in 2018, or that a 37-year old Zobrist (who's hitting .226 since June 2016) doesn't decline further. I think the Cubs would look at moving Happ or Schwarber first.

I dont see that honestly.
i see it as they will approach it as Russell is young and injuries are part of the game. Thus they have to have a UI replacement if Baez goes.

CSF77 · Oct 20, 2017

Parade_Rain said:
It's a lower case L. You know where Schwarber plays. No need for you to be deliberately obtuse.

I've heard for 2 years if Heyward could just do this or that. First year fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...yeah. You can float your if only stuff about Heyward and potential numbers. I'm not listening to them any more.

Pretty mute point honestly.

Heyward may opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019
full no-trade protection for 2016-18, may block deals to 12 clubs in 2019-20, may block all deals after 2020 season as 10-and-5 player

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

Parade_Rain said:
It's a lower case L. You know where Schwarber plays. No need for you to be deliberately obtuse.

Not being obtuse... shows up as an I for me. If you mean LF i get what you're saying.

As for Heyward, I mean if you don't wanna buy into if's fine. But think we both can agree he's going to be in RF regardless because I'd imagine you also agree he's sort of unmovable at this point. Obviously you appear to be in the trade Schwarber camp which is an option. In my opinion the cubs aren't going to do that but i'm not saying your opinion is invalid. All I'm saying here is assuming schwarber is routinely your starting LF I think Almora and Heyward are going to help mask some of his issues.

Parade_Rain · Oct 20, 2017

beckdawg said:
I keep seeing people say this but is this really a concern? Like where are people suggesting the same thing on whether or not Rizzo gets hurt? The cubs have even fewer options to replace him. And you have all of FA to sign a vet back up who can play the infield.

I get it if people just don't want to trade Baez but that reasoning doesn't float for me. Injuries are going to happen or not. You build redundancy into your team via signings. If you trade Baez you're certainly signing a guy on the 25 man who can play 3B/SS and almost certainly they will be offering minor league deals to add depth there regardless of what happens because Freeman isn't a firm solution.

Are you seriously comparing the loss of a SS or 3B to a 1B? Defensively they aren't comparable. Is Rizzo good over there? Sure. Put Bryant at 1B and have LaStella at 3B.

Parade_Rain · Oct 20, 2017

CSF77 said:
Pretty mute point honestly.

Heyward may opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019
full no-trade protection for 2016-18, may block deals to 12 clubs in 2019-20, may block all deals after 2020 season as 10-and-5 player

It's not moot. He can be the 4th OF/Late innings replacement. He doesn't need to start regularly.

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

Parade_Rain said:
Are you seriously comparing the loss of a SS or 3B to a 1B? Defensively they aren't comparable. Is Rizzo good over there? Sure. Put Bryant at 1B and have LaStella at 3B.

The dodgers lost Corey Seager for the cubs series. They plugged in Culberson. He's a career .229/.269/.321 hitter. The dodgers were the best team in baseball this year and they didn't have a Javy Baez level back up to play SS. That's my point. Injuries are going to happen in baseball and to star level players.

Like I said if you don't want to trade Baez fine. But at least make the argument that his infield defense at 2B is too good to give up rather than this lame "what if someone gets hurt?" excuse.

Parade_Rain · Oct 20, 2017

beckdawg said:
The dodgers lost Corey Seager for the cubs series. They plugged in Culberson. He's a career .229/.269/.321 hitter. The dodgers were the best team in baseball this year and they didn't have a Javy Baez level back up to play SS. That's my point. Injuries are going to happen in baseball and to star level players.

Like I said if you don't want to trade Baez fine. But at least make the argument that his infield defense at 2B is too good to give up rather than this lame "what if someone gets hurt?" excuse.

Seager is out for a series, not 4-6 weeks/DL stint. Where one would be concerned about who could take over a spot.

CSF77 · Oct 20, 2017

2018: 137,077,381 on the books.

28 mil to Heyward and 27 mil to Lester.
16.5 mil to Zobrist
Bryant should make 10 mil (not included in current commitment)
Q: 8.8 mil
Rizzo: 7.2 mil
Rondon A3 and don't expect it picked up.
Strop: 5.8 mil

They expect 35.5 mil in arb and 7.4 mil for 0-3 year players. That is the 137 mil in a nut.

Honestly cutting Rondon should be a priority. Grimm also. LaStella to. I can't see giving these guys any bargaining power when their roles can be filled at lower cost. They are not core players.

I would apprach it like this:

Baez is going into his 3rd year of control. So he will be making lower than 1 mil again. A team would be buying 4 years of control with him.
Almora has 5 years of control attached to him.

Now if they did trade both in theory the team would be:

Schwarber LF
Happ CF
Heyward RF
Bryant 3B
Russell SS
Zobrist 2B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C

I would look at Stephen Drew on the market. Should be pretty cheap coming over. As OF depth Jay said he would take a discount and honestly it has merit as a 4th OF.

Now I wouldn't deal unless it was for Archer. I just don't see "this guy" out there unless it was a volume deal where they were getting a MLR SP and a vet MR in return. Then I could see that as you are getting 2 stones back for 2 stones thrown.

beckdawg · Oct 20, 2017

Parade_Rain said:
Seager is out for a series, not 4-6 weeks/DL stint. Where one would be concerned about who could take over a spot.

That doesn't change the fact that had the Seager been out 4-6 weeks the dodgers didn't have anyone better than Culberson. My point is good and even great teams don't have starter quality back ups for every position. And believing that you have to go into a season that way is completely unreasonable. I mean look if Russell was 32 and had a history of injuries then maybe you stack your roster with someone better than 4A garbage. But he's a 24 year old. Going into the season expecting him to get hurt is absurd. Certainly you'd have someone who can play SS on the roster regardless. Baez being there or not doesn't change that.

You keep a player like Baez because he's too valuable to your every day line up not because someone could get hurt. If that's how the cubs view Baez then fine you keep him.

CSF77 · Oct 20, 2017

Parade_Rain said:
It's not moot. He can be the 4th OF/Late innings replacement. He doesn't need to start regularly.

28 mil on the bench...really?

:snoop:

What Theo needs to do in 2018

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